Tasks / Challenge

1000x an idea

Can the model expand an idea's ambition while keeping it tethered to a real mechanism?

Measures the systemTask v1.0 · 2 casesDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 14 graded outputs by 7 models. 36% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Extreme, then back to buildable96% pass
    It pushes the worker dimension to an extreme portable earnings network, then works back to a concrete first step that tests the same mechanism.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · From tip calculator to worker network
  2. Finds the mechanism the data hides93% pass
    It centers the mechanism on workers with second jobs pulling new restaurants onto Tally, using the 41% second-job share and the 57 faster, cheaper worker-led signups.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · From tip calculator to worker network
  3. Addresses the actual decision91% pass
    It commits early to the worker-led distribution thesis over the AI operating system and states the result that would stop the bet.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · From tip calculator to worker network

Where it slips

  1. Proposes tests that could fail39% pass
    Several gates lack explicit measurement windows or clear actions for every outcome, such as the 25% lift gate and the 10% monthly adoption gate.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · From tip calculator to worker network
  2. Avoids unsupported claims63% pass
    It presents several causal, competitive, and data-structure claims as established facts without support in the pack.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · From tip calculator to worker network
  3. Respects explicit constraints66% pass
    It violates the length constraint and proposes a stop threshold whose arithmetic is internally inconsistent.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · From tip calculator to worker network

Case viewer

Read the brief, then put up to three outputs side by side, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're a PM at Pantry. Aisha, one of our PMs, has proposed letting people share a shopping list with one partner. Before we commit next quarter to it, our CEO, Lena Brandt, wants to see the 1000x version: how big could this idea get? Write a memo for Lena and Aisha of no more than 700 words that takes the idea to its most ambitious version and then back to what we should build first, and how we'll know it's working. What we know is below.

What the model was given5 items: About Pantry, Aisha's proposal, What we already see, What hasn't worked, Constraint
About PantryA shopping-list app. 2.4 million monthly active users, free, with a $4.99-a-month Plus plan that 3% of users pay for. The team for this work: four engineers and a designer, for one quarter.
Aisha's proposal“Let a user invite one partner to a list. Both can add and tick off items.”
What we already seeSome users already share their login with a partner to get the same effect. Lists edited from two or more devices on different phone numbers: 11% of lists. Users whose list is edited from two or more devices keep using Pantry at month 3 at 71%, against 22% for everyone else. On those lists, 38% of items are added by the second device. The most common support request is 'we both bought the milk': 1,900 tickets last quarter about duplicate purchases.
What hasn't workedRecipes and meal plans launched a year ago; 4% of users have opened them in the last month. Lena's note: “Whatever we do, it probably needs AI in it.”
ConstraintLegal: we can't track anyone's location without an explicit opt-in from that person, and we can't show one person's location to another without the second person's opt-in too.
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Finds the mechanism in the data: the value is several people coordinating one household's shopping (71% against 22% month-3 retention when a list is edited from two devices, 38% of items added by the second person, 1,900 duplicate-purchase tickets), not the list itself and not recipes (4% use them). Pushes that one dimension to the extreme, such as the list as the household's shared memory where everyone's needs flow in, nobody double-buys and each errand goes to whoever is best placed (with location only on opt-in from both people), rather than adding AI features for their own sake. Works back to a first step four engineers can ship in a quarter that tests the coordination mechanism: shared lists for the whole household (not just one partner) with a live 'I'm at the shop' claim so items aren't bought twice. Sets a threshold, such as the share of lists with a second active editor and duplicate-purchase tickets per shared list, and says what result would stop the bigger bet. Uses AI only where it serves coordination, if at all.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Builds the ambitious version on recipes, meal plans or AI for one person, dropping household coordination
  • Proposes tracking or sharing a person's location without their explicit opt-in
Case

Mid-level · v1.1 · synthetic · B2C, consumer app, retention, ambition

The outputs

7 setups answered this brief. Pick up to three to read side by side.

Needs more than a quick edit9 of 10 checks passed

The memo is strong and actionable, but the invented current-workflow sentence would need to be removed or grounded before use.

Output

To: Lena Brandt and Aisha Subject: From shared lists to the coordination layer for household shopping

The 1000× version

Aisha’s proposal is not just multiplayer checkboxes. It could be the first step toward Pantry becoming the place a household coordinates everything it needs to buy.

Today, each person remembers needs, sends messages, shops, and discovers what someone else already bought. At full ambition, Pantry turns that fragmented process into one shared system: what we need, what we already have, who is handling it, and what remains undone.

An item might begin as a voice note, a pasted message, or a recurring household need. Pantry organizes it, flags likely duplicates, and—with permission—learns when to suggest replenishment. Households could eventually include roommates, caregivers, and extended family. Later, Pantry could connect that shared intent to retailer carts, substitutions, and delivery, while leaving purchasing decisions with users.

The business could expand from a personal utility into household subscriptions and, eventually, commerce revenue. But those opportunities depend on earning trust in coordination first. This is a direction, not a forecast of 1,000× revenue.

Why this wedge—not another content feature

We already see people working around the product by sharing credentials. Eleven percent of lists are edited across devices with different phone numbers; second devices contribute 38% of items on those lists. This looks like substantive participation, not occasional viewing.

Multi-device users’ month-three retention is 71%, versus 22% for others. That is evidence of opportunity, not proof that sharing causes retention: more committed households may already be selecting into this behavior. Likewise, 11% of lists does not mean 11% of users.

The clearest unmet need is concrete: 1,900 duplicate-purchase tickets last quarter. Meanwhile, recipes and meal plans reach only 4% of users monthly. We should deepen Pantry’s existing shopping workflow rather than build another destination users must remember to visit.

What we should build next quarter

With four engineers and one designer, ship one list, two separate accounts, reliable coordination:

  • Invite one partner through a secure link; accept, leave, and revoke access.
  • Both people can add and check off items, with clear attribution.
  • Fast synchronization, offline recovery, and predictable handling of simultaneous edits.
  • A lightweight “I’m buying this” claim, visible to both people, with easy release. Checking an item off means purchased; claiming it means someone is handling it.
  • Help existing credential-sharing households move to separate accounts.

Make basic sharing free: charging before establishing the collaboration habit would constrain adoption. Defer larger groups, inventory, retailer integrations, and monetization experiments.

AI belongs in service of the job, not in the launch headline. Test a small, optional assistant that converts pasted household messages into proposed list items and flags likely duplicates. Users confirm every change. Ship it only if it saves effort without introducing meaningful mistakes; it must not delay the coordination core.

No location tracking is needed. “I’m buying this” is an explicit action, not an inferred whereabouts signal. Any future location feature must require the explicit opt-ins Legal specifies, including both people’s consent before sharing location.

How we’ll know it works

Instrument household participation, claims, purchases, synchronization failures, and reported duplicates. Do not treat invitation volume as success.

Run a randomized rollout, keeping collaborating accounts in the same experiment group. Analyze by assignment, not only among people who accept invitations.

Proposed decision gates, to validate against baseline and statistical power:

  • At least a 10% relative improvement in day-30 retention versus control.
  • At least half of activated pairs still have both people contributing in week four.
  • At least a 25% reduction in self-reported duplicate purchases among activated pairs.
  • No material deterioration in list reliability, privacy incidents, or support burden.

Report month-three retention when cohorts mature; a quarter-end readout cannot establish it for late adopters. Scale only if Pantry makes two people’s shopping measurably easier—not merely more shareable.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • Pantry has 2.4 million monthly active users, free, with a $4.99-a-month Plus plan that 3% of users pay for.
  • Today, each person remembers needs, sends messages, shops, and discovers what someone else already bought.

Grades and run details

Decision model 90 · LLM judge 9 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly57%
  • passAddresses the actual decision88%
  • partialRespects explicit constraints25%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty92%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims57%
  • passProduces the required deliverable26%
  • passFinds the mechanism in the data99%
  • passA first step that tests the big idea88%
  • passExtreme, then back to buildable97%
  • partialProposes tests that could fail69%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
45 s
Submitted
1 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit9 of 10 checks passed

The memo is complete and evidence-based; a PM could quickly add numeric thresholds to the test criteria without redoing any reasoning.

Output

To: Lena Brandt and Aisha Subject: From shared lists to a household coordination layer

Thesis: Don’t think of this as a sharing toggle. Treat it as a wedge into making Pantry the place a household coordinates what it needs and who is getting it.

The 1000x version

Today, Pantry remembers a list. At its most ambitious, it remembers a household’s preferences and routines, helps everyone keep that shared memory up to date, and coordinates the next step: what’s running low, who’s picking it up, and how to avoid buying it twice. Over time, that could become a trusted AI household assistant—able to turn “we’re out of oat milk” into an editable list item, learn preferred brands, and suggest replenishment. With permission, it could eventually connect that plan to retailers or fulfillment.

AI belongs here as a useful assistant, not a badge: it can interpret messy requests and learn household patterns, but people stay in control of the list and any purchase. Location is not required for the core experience; any future location feature must follow Legal’s opt-in requirements for both people.

What to build first

Aisha’s proposal is the right wedge. In one quarter, build a reliable, account-based shared list for two people:

  • Invite a partner with their own account; both can add, edit, and check off items in near real time.
  • Show who added or checked off an item, with a simple “I’m getting this” state to reduce duplicate purchases.
  • Add basic duplicate warnings and notification controls; never silently merge or remove items.

Keep recipes, retailer integrations, automatic purchasing, location, and a broader household product out of scope. Once the shared-list flow works, test one contained AI feature—natural-language item entry that produces an editable item and quantity. The shared list must work just as well without it.

There’s a real signal: 11% of lists are already edited from multiple devices, and 38% of items on those lists come from the second device. The 71% versus 22% month-three retention gap is striking, but it’s observational, not proof that sharing causes retention. The 1,900 duplicate-milk tickets last quarter give us a concrete problem to solve.

How we’ll know

Run a randomized rollout to eligible users, comparing an invitation to use shared lists against a control. Judge impact across everyone offered the feature—not just people who accept—so we avoid mistaking high intent for product impact.

Track: - Adoption: invite acceptance and the share of invited households with two active contributors each week. - Core outcome: duplicate-purchase reports per 1,000 shared-list weeks, plus duplicate-related support tickets. - Business outcome: incremental month-three retention versus control. - Guardrails: sync failures, unwanted notifications, and privacy or account-access incidents.

Agree on go/no-go thresholds before launch. If sharing drives sustained two-person use, reduces duplicates, and improves retention in the randomized test, we have evidence to expand from “shared list” toward the household assistant. If not, we should fix the collaboration basics before adding more ambition.

Grades and run details

Decision model 90 · LLM judge 10 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly74%
  • passAddresses the actual decision70%
  • passRespects explicit constraints25%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty73%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims54%
  • partialProduces the required deliverable65%
  • passFinds the mechanism in the data70%
  • passA first step that tests the big idea69%
  • passExtreme, then back to buildable95%
  • partialProposes tests that could fail74%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
30 s
Submitted
30 Sept 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 2

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyMixedRight
GPT-6.1 Sol · API

The memo invents a current-situation workflow ('Today, each person remembers needs, sends messages, shops, and discovers...') that is not in the supplied context.

GPT-6 Luna · API

All factual claims about the current situation are directly supported by the supplied context.

Proposes tests that could failRightWrong
GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Each gate has a numeric threshold, a measurement window, and a clear continue/stop implication.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The output does not set numeric thresholds for the go/no-go criteria; it only says to agree on them before launch.

All got right 8

Addresses the actual decisionRightRight
GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It commits to a clear first build (one list, two separate accounts, reliable coordination) and states the decision gates that would change the answer.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The memo commits to a clear first step and states what results would lead to expanding or stopping the bigger bet.

Respects explicit constraintsRightRight
GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It respects the legal location constraint, the team/quarter constraint, and the memo form/length.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The memo is under 700 words, respects the legal opt-in requirement for location, and proposes a scope feasible for the given team and quarter.

Identifies material uncertaintyRightRight
GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It names selection bias, the lists-vs-users denominator, and the need for randomized rollout and mature cohorts, with gates to resolve them.

GPT-6 Luna · API

It identifies that the retention gap is observational and not proof of causation, and says a randomized test will resolve whether sharing improves retention.

Avoids unsupported claimsRightRight
GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It labels causal uncertainty and future possibilities as hypotheses or directions rather than established facts.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Interpretations like the retention gap being observational are clearly labelled, and no confident claims go beyond the evidence.

Produces the required deliverableRightRight
GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It is a memo for Lena and Aisha, under 700 words, and actionable as written.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The memo is addressed to Lena and Aisha, within the word limit, and provides a complete, actionable plan.

Finds the mechanism in the dataRightRight
GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It centers household coordination and uses the supplied retention, second-device item share, and duplicate-ticket evidence.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Household coordination is named as the mechanism, backed by the supplied figures, and kept central to both the extreme version and the first step.

A first step that tests the big ideaRightRight
GPT-6.1 Sol · API

The first step is scoped to four engineers and a designer in a quarter and directly tests the coordination mechanism.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The shared list with 'I'm getting this' state fits the team and quarter, directly tests coordination, and includes a clear stop/continue condition.

Extreme, then back to buildableRightRight
GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It pushes the idea to a household coordination layer, then works back to a buildable first step with the same mechanism.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The memo pushes the idea along the household coordination dimension to an extreme version, then works back to a concrete, buildable first step.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task, across all cases and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated: the graders match our PM on 89% of checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT95.295.52None
2GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI92.786.72None
3GPT-6 LunawithAPI88.278.82None
4Opus 5.5withClaude90.774.62None
5Sonnet 5.5withAPI90.265.92None
6Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI71.134.521 capped
7Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini61.417.02None

About the task

The PM job

Finding the bigger version of a good idea.

Why it matters

Ambition without mechanism is fan fiction. The useful version pushes to the extreme, then works back to something buildable.

What good looks like

  • Names the mechanism that scales
  • Keeps the core insight
  • Works back to a first step you could build

Deliberately not measured

    Capability tested

    Ambitious expansion

    The failure we’re looking for

    Bigger adjectives, same idea

    Grading

    Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review

    This task measures the whole setup. Tools, instructions and skills in the harness do real work here, so read the harness as carefully as the model name.