Tasks / Challenge

1000x an idea

Can the model expand an idea's ambition while keeping it tethered to a real mechanism?

Measures the systemTask v1.0 · 2 casesDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 14 graded outputs by 7 models. 36% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Extreme, then back to buildable96% pass
    It pushes the worker dimension to an extreme portable earnings network, then works back to a concrete first step that tests the same mechanism.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · From tip calculator to worker network
  2. Finds the mechanism the data hides93% pass
    It centers the mechanism on workers with second jobs pulling new restaurants onto Tally, using the 41% second-job share and the 57 faster, cheaper worker-led signups.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · From tip calculator to worker network
  3. Addresses the actual decision91% pass
    It commits early to the worker-led distribution thesis over the AI operating system and states the result that would stop the bet.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · From tip calculator to worker network

Where it slips

  1. Proposes tests that could fail39% pass
    Several gates lack explicit measurement windows or clear actions for every outcome, such as the 25% lift gate and the 10% monthly adoption gate.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · From tip calculator to worker network
  2. Avoids unsupported claims63% pass
    It presents several causal, competitive, and data-structure claims as established facts without support in the pack.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · From tip calculator to worker network
  3. Respects explicit constraints66% pass
    It violates the length constraint and proposes a stop threshold whose arithmetic is internally inconsistent.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · From tip calculator to worker network

Case viewer

Read the brief, then put up to three outputs side by side, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're a PM at Pantry. Aisha, one of our PMs, has proposed letting people share a shopping list with one partner. Before we commit next quarter to it, our CEO, Lena Brandt, wants to see the 1000x version: how big could this idea get? Write a memo for Lena and Aisha of no more than 700 words that takes the idea to its most ambitious version and then back to what we should build first, and how we'll know it's working. What we know is below.

What the model was given5 items: About Pantry, Aisha's proposal, What we already see, What hasn't worked, Constraint
About PantryA shopping-list app. 2.4 million monthly active users, free, with a $4.99-a-month Plus plan that 3% of users pay for. The team for this work: four engineers and a designer, for one quarter.
Aisha's proposal“Let a user invite one partner to a list. Both can add and tick off items.”
What we already seeSome users already share their login with a partner to get the same effect. Lists edited from two or more devices on different phone numbers: 11% of lists. Users whose list is edited from two or more devices keep using Pantry at month 3 at 71%, against 22% for everyone else. On those lists, 38% of items are added by the second device. The most common support request is 'we both bought the milk': 1,900 tickets last quarter about duplicate purchases.
What hasn't workedRecipes and meal plans launched a year ago; 4% of users have opened them in the last month. Lena's note: “Whatever we do, it probably needs AI in it.”
ConstraintLegal: we can't track anyone's location without an explicit opt-in from that person, and we can't show one person's location to another without the second person's opt-in too.
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Finds the mechanism in the data: the value is several people coordinating one household's shopping (71% against 22% month-3 retention when a list is edited from two devices, 38% of items added by the second person, 1,900 duplicate-purchase tickets), not the list itself and not recipes (4% use them). Pushes that one dimension to the extreme, such as the list as the household's shared memory where everyone's needs flow in, nobody double-buys and each errand goes to whoever is best placed (with location only on opt-in from both people), rather than adding AI features for their own sake. Works back to a first step four engineers can ship in a quarter that tests the coordination mechanism: shared lists for the whole household (not just one partner) with a live 'I'm at the shop' claim so items aren't bought twice. Sets a threshold, such as the share of lists with a second active editor and duplicate-purchase tickets per shared list, and says what result would stop the bigger bet. Uses AI only where it serves coordination, if at all.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Builds the ambitious version on recipes, meal plans or AI for one person, dropping household coordination
  • Proposes tracking or sharing a person's location without their explicit opt-in
Case

Mid-level · v1.1 · synthetic · B2C, consumer app, retention, ambition

The outputs

7 setups answered this brief. Pick up to three to read side by side.

Needs more than a quick edit9 of 10 checks passed

The memo is strong and usable, but a PM would need to add numeric thresholds and measurement windows before it could serve as a launch gate or kill criterion.

Output

To: Lena Brandt, Aisha From: PM, Pantry Re: Shared lists: the 1000x version, and what we build first

Recommendation Build Aisha's proposal, scoped to fix duplicate purchases. The evidence already supports it, and it is the first step toward something much larger.

The 1000x version: Pantry is where a household runs its food Sharing with one partner is the smallest unit of a bigger idea: the household is the customer, not the individual.

  • Households of any shape: partners, families, roommates, with roles and attribution ("Sam added oat milk").
  • Live coordination: claim items ("I've got this"), see ticks in real time, and use an "I'm at the store, need anything?" ping.
  • Shared memory: one household's staples, habits, and pantry stock, which no single-user list can build.
  • Household intelligence: this is where AI belongs. Once two people's behavior feeds one list, we can predict restocks, merge "milk" and "whole milk," and suggest the weekly shop.
  • Household plan and commerce: Plus priced per household, with one-tap handoff to delivery or pickup.
  • Growth loop: every invite brings a new user, so acquisition becomes a product feature.

What's real today - 11% of lists are already edited from two or more devices, and people share logins to do it. They are working around us. - On those lists, 38% of items come from the second device, so the second person is a real contributor. - "We both bought the milk" produced 1,900 tickets last quarter, our top support request. - Retention is 71% at month 3 for multi-device lists versus 22% for everyone else. I would not quote this as the effect of sharing. Households that already depend on Pantry are more likely to share, so it may be selection. We should test it (see below).

On AI I wouldn't put AI in the first release. Recipes and meal plans, a feature set that stacked on top of the list, are opened by only 4% of users a month. The lesson is to build where behavior already exists. Sharing has that behavior. AI becomes useful in a second phase, once shared data exists to learn from, and I'd earn it there rather than lead with it.

What we build first (one quarter, four engineers and a designer) 1. Invite one partner by link. The partner gets their own account, not a shared login. We need separate identities for anything later, including location consent. 2. Real-time sync with both people adding and ticking items, plus attribution of who added what. 3. Duplicate-purchase protection: a push notification when the other person ticks something off ("Sam got milk"), and a clear in-store "already bought" state. 4. Login-sharer migration: detect lists used from multiple devices and prompt an invite.

Deliberately out of scope - Multi-person households, claiming, roles, AI, and the paywall. Keep sharing free in v1 so the invite loop isn't throttled. - Location. Legal requires opt-in from each person, and the other person's opt-in before we show a location. If we pursue "I'm at the store" later, a manual "I'm shopping now" toggle gives most of the value with no location tracking.

How we'll know it's working Ship the invite prompt to a randomized subset of eligible users and hold out the rest. This tests the retention claim directly.

MetricWhySignal of success
Month-3 retention, prompted vs. holdoutTests causality of the 71% vs 22% gapMeaningful lift (we should set the threshold before launch)
Invite acceptance, and invitee adding an item within 7 daysWhether the second person is realInvitee activity approaching the 38% second-device share
Duplicate-purchase ticketsDirect pain reliefClear drop from the 1,900/quarter baseline
Share of active lists that are sharedAdoption beyond today's 11%Growing, rather than just converting current workaround users
New users per accepted inviteEvidence of the growth loopInvitees who are new to Pantry

Watch Plus conversion as a secondary signal, not a target. A guardrail is list-sync errors and conflicting edits, since a shared list that loses items would hurt trust.

Decision points - End of quarter: if the holdout shows no retention lift but tickets fall, we have a support win and a weaker growth story. We would reconsider the household vision before investing further. - If retention lifts: next quarter, extend to multi-person households and test a household Plus tier. AI-based staples prediction comes after that.

Open questions for you both - Do we have the data to separate new-to-Pantry invitees from existing users? - Are we comfortable launching the free tier with no paywall for a quarter?

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • Households that already depend on Pantry are more likely to share, so the retention gap may be selection.
  • The evidence already supports building Aisha's proposal.

Grades and run details

Decision model 85 · LLM judge 9 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly65%
  • passAddresses the actual decision96%
  • partialRespects explicit constraints25%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty97%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims33%
  • partialProduces the required deliverable38%
  • passFinds the mechanism in the data99%
  • passA first step that tests the big idea78%
  • passExtreme, then back to buildable97%
  • partialProposes tests that could fail68%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
25 s
Submitted
1 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit9 of 10 checks passed

The memo is well-structured and evidence-based; adding numeric thresholds (e.g., a minimum retention lift and a target reduction in duplicate tickets) is a quick edit that does not require re-checking evidence or redoing reasoning.

Output

To: Lena Brandt, Aisha Re: Shared lists: the 1000x version, and what to build first

The short version

Aisha's proposal is right, and it's the first step toward something much bigger. Our data suggests Pantry's real unit isn't the person but the household. Next quarter we should build partner sharing around the moment that actually breaks today: two people at two stores, both buying the milk. Then we should use the result to test whether sharing causes the retention gap we see.

What the data tells us

  • Demand already exists. 11% of lists are edited from two or more devices on different phone numbers, and some of that is people sharing a login to get around a missing feature.
  • The second person contributes, not just watches. They add 38% of items on those lists.
  • The pain is at purchase time, not list-building time. 1,900 tickets last quarter were about duplicate purchases. That's our top support request.
  • Retention is striking, but we can't yet say sharing causes it. Shared-list users are at 71% at month 3, against 22% for everyone else. Committed, organised households may simply be more likely to share and to stick. We should design the launch to find out.

The 1000x version

Pantry becomes the operating system for a household's food. Four ideas stack up:

  1. Every member, not one partner. Families, roommates, and adult children shopping for elderly parents all share one live list, with roles.
  2. The list knows the household's rhythm. Pantry learns that you buy milk every five days and nobody has added it. It notices that eggs appear on both partners' mental lists and merges them. This is where AI earns its place: predicting and reconciling what the household needs, not generating content.
  3. Coordination in the moment. "Sam is shopping now, add anything." Items are claimed as they go in the cart. Later, with explicit opt-in from both people, the app can say "Sam is near the grocery store."
  4. The household becomes the business model and the growth engine. Every invite is an acquisition channel. Plus becomes a household plan, which is an easier purchase than a personal one. At scale, Pantry holds the best dataset anywhere on what households actually consume, which retailers and delivery services would pay to plug into.

A warning from recipes and meal plans, which only 4% of users opened last month: ambition should deepen the core job, which is the list, not bolt on adjacent ones. Everything above makes the list itself smarter and more shared.

What we build first (one quarter, four engineers and a designer)

  1. Invite one partner to a list, as Aisha proposed. Build the data model for more members so we don't rebuild later. Offer an easy migration for people currently sharing a login.
  2. Real-time sync with attribution, so you can see who added and who ticked off each item.
  3. "I'm shopping" mode. This is a manual toggle, so it needs no location data and raises no legal issue. It notifies the partner, and items ticked off in-store update live so the other person can't buy them too. This targets the 1,900 duplicate-purchase tickets directly.
  4. One small AI feature: duplicate detection. It flags "milk" and "2% milk" added by different people and offers to merge them. It's cheap, directly useful, and meets Lena's AI bar without building a speculative product.

Deliberately out of scope for now: location features, predictive restocking, more than two members, and household pricing. Each depends on proving the basics first.

How we'll know it's working

  • Adoption: the share of active lists with a second member, measured against today's 11% baseline (which includes login-sharing). Also track the invite acceptance rate.
  • The pain goes away: duplicate-purchase tickets per 1,000 shared lists should fall sharply from the current 1,900 a quarter.
  • Causation, the metric that matters most: randomly hold back the invite prompt from a slice of eligible users. Then compare month-3 retention for those offered sharing against the holdout. If invited users retain meaningfully better, sharing is our biggest retention lever, and the 1000x roadmap is justified. If not, the 71% was mostly selection. We'll still have fixed our top support issue, and we'll invest elsewhere.
  • Growth: new sign-ups arriving through invites.

Decision needed

Approve the one-quarter scope above, including the holdout test. We'll return with retention results at the end of the quarter plus 90 days, and a recommendation on whether to pursue the household roadmap.

Grades and run details

Decision model 95 · LLM judge 10 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly60%
  • passAddresses the actual decision98%
  • passRespects explicit constraints37%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty100%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims43%
  • passProduces the required deliverable31%
  • passFinds the mechanism in the data100%
  • passA first step that tests the big idea97%
  • passExtreme, then back to buildable100%
  • partialProposes tests that could fail67%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
35 s
Submitted
30 Sept 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

All got wrong 1

Proposes tests that could failWrongWrong
Sonnet 5.5 · API

The tests lack numeric thresholds and a clear kill threshold for the bigger bet; for example, 'meaningful lift' and 'clear drop' are not specified, and the retention window is not defined.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The retention test lacks a numeric threshold for 'meaningfully better', and the duplicate-purchase metric only says 'fall sharply' without a specific number, so the tests do not have the required numeric thresholds.

All got right 9

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

The memo uses the supplied figures and quotes correctly, and its only non-supplied current-situation statement is clearly labelled as a selection hypothesis rather than fact.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

All claims about the current situation are taken directly from the brief and supplied context, with no invented numbers or facts.

Addresses the actual decisionRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It commits early to building Aisha's proposal scoped to duplicate purchases and states how retention and ticket results would change the household bet.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The memo commits to a clear call (approve the one-quarter scope with holdout test) and says what would change it (if the retention test shows no lift, invest elsewhere).

Respects explicit constraintsRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It stays within the memo form and length, respects the team/quarter constraint, and enforces the location constraint by excluding location tracking and using a manual shopping toggle.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The memo is under 700 words, addresses Lena and Aisha, and respects the location opt-in constraint by using a manual toggle and requiring explicit opt-in from both people for any future location feature.

Identifies material uncertaintyRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It names the key uncertainty that the retention gap may be selection and proposes a randomized holdout to resolve it, plus decision points for lift versus no lift.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

It names the key uncertainty (whether sharing causes the retention gap or is selection) and proposes a randomized holdout test to resolve it, with clear actions for each outcome.

Avoids unsupported claimsRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It labels the causal interpretation of the retention gap as uncertain and avoids presenting AI, commerce, or growth-loop outcomes as established facts.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Interpretations like 'the pain is at purchase time' are grounded in the 1,900 tickets, and the retention gap is explicitly labelled as not yet proven causal.

Produces the required deliverableRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It is a usable memo for Lena and Aisha that gives the 1000x version, the first build, and measurement plan within the requested length.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The memo is a complete, actionable document for the CEO and PM, within the word limit, covering the 1000x version, first step, and success metrics.

Finds the mechanism in the dataRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It centers household coordination and uses the 71%/22% retention gap, 38% second-device item share, and 1,900 duplicate-purchase tickets as the evidence.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The memo identifies household coordination as the core mechanism, backs it with the retention gap, second-device contribution, and duplicate-purchase tickets, and keeps it central to both the extreme version and the first step.

A first step that tests the big ideaRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

The first step is scoped to one partner, real-time sync, attribution, duplicate protection, and login-sharer migration, which fits four engineers and a designer in a quarter and tests coordination.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The first step (partner invite, real-time sync, 'I'm shopping' mode, duplicate detection) fits the team and quarter, directly tests coordination, and includes a holdout test whose result would stop or continue the bigger bet.

Extreme, then back to buildableRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It pushes the idea to the household as the customer, then works back to a buildable first step that preserves the coordination mechanism.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

It pushes the dimension of household coordination to an extreme (household OS, every member, predictive rhythm, location coordination) and works back to a concrete, buildable first step that tests the same mechanism.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task, across all cases and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated: the graders match our PM on 89% of checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT95.295.52None
2GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI92.786.72None
3GPT-6 LunawithAPI88.278.82None
4Opus 5.5withClaude90.774.62None
5Sonnet 5.5withAPI90.265.92None
6Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI71.134.521 capped
7Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini61.417.02None

About the task

The PM job

Finding the bigger version of a good idea.

Why it matters

Ambition without mechanism is fan fiction. The useful version pushes to the extreme, then works back to something buildable.

What good looks like

  • Names the mechanism that scales
  • Keeps the core insight
  • Works back to a first step you could build

Deliberately not measured

    Capability tested

    Ambitious expansion

    The failure we’re looking for

    Bigger adjectives, same idea

    Grading

    Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review

    This task measures the whole setup. Tools, instructions and skills in the harness do real work here, so read the harness as carefully as the model name.