Tasks / Challenge

1000x an idea

Can the model expand an idea's ambition while keeping it tethered to a real mechanism?

Measures the systemTask v1.0 · 2 casesDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 14 graded outputs by 7 models. 36% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Extreme, then back to buildable96% pass
    It pushes the worker dimension to an extreme portable earnings network, then works back to a concrete first step that tests the same mechanism.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · From tip calculator to worker network
  2. Finds the mechanism the data hides93% pass
    It centers the mechanism on workers with second jobs pulling new restaurants onto Tally, using the 41% second-job share and the 57 faster, cheaper worker-led signups.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · From tip calculator to worker network
  3. Addresses the actual decision91% pass
    It commits early to the worker-led distribution thesis over the AI operating system and states the result that would stop the bet.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · From tip calculator to worker network

Where it slips

  1. Proposes tests that could fail39% pass
    Several gates lack explicit measurement windows or clear actions for every outcome, such as the 25% lift gate and the 10% monthly adoption gate.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · From tip calculator to worker network
  2. Avoids unsupported claims63% pass
    It presents several causal, competitive, and data-structure claims as established facts without support in the pack.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · From tip calculator to worker network
  3. Respects explicit constraints66% pass
    It violates the length constraint and proposes a stop threshold whose arithmetic is internally inconsistent.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · From tip calculator to worker network

Case viewer

Read the brief, then put up to three outputs side by side, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're a PM at Pantry. Aisha, one of our PMs, has proposed letting people share a shopping list with one partner. Before we commit next quarter to it, our CEO, Lena Brandt, wants to see the 1000x version: how big could this idea get? Write a memo for Lena and Aisha of no more than 700 words that takes the idea to its most ambitious version and then back to what we should build first, and how we'll know it's working. What we know is below.

What the model was given5 items: About Pantry, Aisha's proposal, What we already see, What hasn't worked, Constraint
About PantryA shopping-list app. 2.4 million monthly active users, free, with a $4.99-a-month Plus plan that 3% of users pay for. The team for this work: four engineers and a designer, for one quarter.
Aisha's proposal“Let a user invite one partner to a list. Both can add and tick off items.”
What we already seeSome users already share their login with a partner to get the same effect. Lists edited from two or more devices on different phone numbers: 11% of lists. Users whose list is edited from two or more devices keep using Pantry at month 3 at 71%, against 22% for everyone else. On those lists, 38% of items are added by the second device. The most common support request is 'we both bought the milk': 1,900 tickets last quarter about duplicate purchases.
What hasn't workedRecipes and meal plans launched a year ago; 4% of users have opened them in the last month. Lena's note: “Whatever we do, it probably needs AI in it.”
ConstraintLegal: we can't track anyone's location without an explicit opt-in from that person, and we can't show one person's location to another without the second person's opt-in too.
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Finds the mechanism in the data: the value is several people coordinating one household's shopping (71% against 22% month-3 retention when a list is edited from two devices, 38% of items added by the second person, 1,900 duplicate-purchase tickets), not the list itself and not recipes (4% use them). Pushes that one dimension to the extreme, such as the list as the household's shared memory where everyone's needs flow in, nobody double-buys and each errand goes to whoever is best placed (with location only on opt-in from both people), rather than adding AI features for their own sake. Works back to a first step four engineers can ship in a quarter that tests the coordination mechanism: shared lists for the whole household (not just one partner) with a live 'I'm at the shop' claim so items aren't bought twice. Sets a threshold, such as the share of lists with a second active editor and duplicate-purchase tickets per shared list, and says what result would stop the bigger bet. Uses AI only where it serves coordination, if at all.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Builds the ambitious version on recipes, meal plans or AI for one person, dropping household coordination
  • Proposes tracking or sharing a person's location without their explicit opt-in
Case

Mid-level · v1.1 · synthetic · B2C, consumer app, retention, ambition

The outputs

7 setups answered this brief. Pick up to three to read side by side.

Needs more than a quick edit9 of 10 checks passed

The memo is strong and usable, but a PM would need to add numeric thresholds and measurement windows before it could serve as a launch gate or kill criterion.

Output

To: Lena Brandt, Aisha From: PM, Pantry Re: Shared lists: the 1000x version, and what we build first

Recommendation Build Aisha's proposal, scoped to fix duplicate purchases. The evidence already supports it, and it is the first step toward something much larger.

The 1000x version: Pantry is where a household runs its food Sharing with one partner is the smallest unit of a bigger idea: the household is the customer, not the individual.

  • Households of any shape: partners, families, roommates, with roles and attribution ("Sam added oat milk").
  • Live coordination: claim items ("I've got this"), see ticks in real time, and use an "I'm at the store, need anything?" ping.
  • Shared memory: one household's staples, habits, and pantry stock, which no single-user list can build.
  • Household intelligence: this is where AI belongs. Once two people's behavior feeds one list, we can predict restocks, merge "milk" and "whole milk," and suggest the weekly shop.
  • Household plan and commerce: Plus priced per household, with one-tap handoff to delivery or pickup.
  • Growth loop: every invite brings a new user, so acquisition becomes a product feature.

What's real today - 11% of lists are already edited from two or more devices, and people share logins to do it. They are working around us. - On those lists, 38% of items come from the second device, so the second person is a real contributor. - "We both bought the milk" produced 1,900 tickets last quarter, our top support request. - Retention is 71% at month 3 for multi-device lists versus 22% for everyone else. I would not quote this as the effect of sharing. Households that already depend on Pantry are more likely to share, so it may be selection. We should test it (see below).

On AI I wouldn't put AI in the first release. Recipes and meal plans, a feature set that stacked on top of the list, are opened by only 4% of users a month. The lesson is to build where behavior already exists. Sharing has that behavior. AI becomes useful in a second phase, once shared data exists to learn from, and I'd earn it there rather than lead with it.

What we build first (one quarter, four engineers and a designer) 1. Invite one partner by link. The partner gets their own account, not a shared login. We need separate identities for anything later, including location consent. 2. Real-time sync with both people adding and ticking items, plus attribution of who added what. 3. Duplicate-purchase protection: a push notification when the other person ticks something off ("Sam got milk"), and a clear in-store "already bought" state. 4. Login-sharer migration: detect lists used from multiple devices and prompt an invite.

Deliberately out of scope - Multi-person households, claiming, roles, AI, and the paywall. Keep sharing free in v1 so the invite loop isn't throttled. - Location. Legal requires opt-in from each person, and the other person's opt-in before we show a location. If we pursue "I'm at the store" later, a manual "I'm shopping now" toggle gives most of the value with no location tracking.

How we'll know it's working Ship the invite prompt to a randomized subset of eligible users and hold out the rest. This tests the retention claim directly.

MetricWhySignal of success
Month-3 retention, prompted vs. holdoutTests causality of the 71% vs 22% gapMeaningful lift (we should set the threshold before launch)
Invite acceptance, and invitee adding an item within 7 daysWhether the second person is realInvitee activity approaching the 38% second-device share
Duplicate-purchase ticketsDirect pain reliefClear drop from the 1,900/quarter baseline
Share of active lists that are sharedAdoption beyond today's 11%Growing, rather than just converting current workaround users
New users per accepted inviteEvidence of the growth loopInvitees who are new to Pantry

Watch Plus conversion as a secondary signal, not a target. A guardrail is list-sync errors and conflicting edits, since a shared list that loses items would hurt trust.

Decision points - End of quarter: if the holdout shows no retention lift but tickets fall, we have a support win and a weaker growth story. We would reconsider the household vision before investing further. - If retention lifts: next quarter, extend to multi-person households and test a household Plus tier. AI-based staples prediction comes after that.

Open questions for you both - Do we have the data to separate new-to-Pantry invitees from existing users? - Are we comfortable launching the free tier with no paywall for a quarter?

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • Households that already depend on Pantry are more likely to share, so the retention gap may be selection.
  • The evidence already supports building Aisha's proposal.

Grades and run details

Decision model 85 · LLM judge 9 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly65%
  • passAddresses the actual decision96%
  • partialRespects explicit constraints25%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty97%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims33%
  • partialProduces the required deliverable38%
  • passFinds the mechanism in the data99%
  • passA first step that tests the big idea78%
  • passExtreme, then back to buildable97%
  • partialProposes tests that could fail68%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
25 s
Submitted
1 Oct 2026

Needs more than a quick edit9 of 10 checks passed

The memo is strong and actionable, but the invented current-workflow sentence would need to be removed or grounded before use.

Output

To: Lena Brandt and Aisha Subject: From shared lists to the coordination layer for household shopping

The 1000× version

Aisha’s proposal is not just multiplayer checkboxes. It could be the first step toward Pantry becoming the place a household coordinates everything it needs to buy.

Today, each person remembers needs, sends messages, shops, and discovers what someone else already bought. At full ambition, Pantry turns that fragmented process into one shared system: what we need, what we already have, who is handling it, and what remains undone.

An item might begin as a voice note, a pasted message, or a recurring household need. Pantry organizes it, flags likely duplicates, and—with permission—learns when to suggest replenishment. Households could eventually include roommates, caregivers, and extended family. Later, Pantry could connect that shared intent to retailer carts, substitutions, and delivery, while leaving purchasing decisions with users.

The business could expand from a personal utility into household subscriptions and, eventually, commerce revenue. But those opportunities depend on earning trust in coordination first. This is a direction, not a forecast of 1,000× revenue.

Why this wedge—not another content feature

We already see people working around the product by sharing credentials. Eleven percent of lists are edited across devices with different phone numbers; second devices contribute 38% of items on those lists. This looks like substantive participation, not occasional viewing.

Multi-device users’ month-three retention is 71%, versus 22% for others. That is evidence of opportunity, not proof that sharing causes retention: more committed households may already be selecting into this behavior. Likewise, 11% of lists does not mean 11% of users.

The clearest unmet need is concrete: 1,900 duplicate-purchase tickets last quarter. Meanwhile, recipes and meal plans reach only 4% of users monthly. We should deepen Pantry’s existing shopping workflow rather than build another destination users must remember to visit.

What we should build next quarter

With four engineers and one designer, ship one list, two separate accounts, reliable coordination:

  • Invite one partner through a secure link; accept, leave, and revoke access.
  • Both people can add and check off items, with clear attribution.
  • Fast synchronization, offline recovery, and predictable handling of simultaneous edits.
  • A lightweight “I’m buying this” claim, visible to both people, with easy release. Checking an item off means purchased; claiming it means someone is handling it.
  • Help existing credential-sharing households move to separate accounts.

Make basic sharing free: charging before establishing the collaboration habit would constrain adoption. Defer larger groups, inventory, retailer integrations, and monetization experiments.

AI belongs in service of the job, not in the launch headline. Test a small, optional assistant that converts pasted household messages into proposed list items and flags likely duplicates. Users confirm every change. Ship it only if it saves effort without introducing meaningful mistakes; it must not delay the coordination core.

No location tracking is needed. “I’m buying this” is an explicit action, not an inferred whereabouts signal. Any future location feature must require the explicit opt-ins Legal specifies, including both people’s consent before sharing location.

How we’ll know it works

Instrument household participation, claims, purchases, synchronization failures, and reported duplicates. Do not treat invitation volume as success.

Run a randomized rollout, keeping collaborating accounts in the same experiment group. Analyze by assignment, not only among people who accept invitations.

Proposed decision gates, to validate against baseline and statistical power:

  • At least a 10% relative improvement in day-30 retention versus control.
  • At least half of activated pairs still have both people contributing in week four.
  • At least a 25% reduction in self-reported duplicate purchases among activated pairs.
  • No material deterioration in list reliability, privacy incidents, or support burden.

Report month-three retention when cohorts mature; a quarter-end readout cannot establish it for late adopters. Scale only if Pantry makes two people’s shopping measurably easier—not merely more shareable.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • Pantry has 2.4 million monthly active users, free, with a $4.99-a-month Plus plan that 3% of users pay for.
  • Today, each person remembers needs, sends messages, shops, and discovers what someone else already bought.

Grades and run details

Decision model 90 · LLM judge 9 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly57%
  • passAddresses the actual decision88%
  • partialRespects explicit constraints25%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty92%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims57%
  • passProduces the required deliverable26%
  • passFinds the mechanism in the data99%
  • passA first step that tests the big idea88%
  • passExtreme, then back to buildable97%
  • partialProposes tests that could fail69%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
45 s
Submitted
1 Oct 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 2

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyRightMixed
Sonnet 5.5 · API

The memo uses the supplied figures and quotes correctly, and its only non-supplied current-situation statement is clearly labelled as a selection hypothesis rather than fact.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

The memo invents a current-situation workflow ('Today, each person remembers needs, sends messages, shops, and discovers...') that is not in the supplied context.

Proposes tests that could failWrongRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

The tests lack numeric thresholds and a clear kill threshold for the bigger bet; for example, 'meaningful lift' and 'clear drop' are not specified, and the retention window is not defined.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Each gate has a numeric threshold, a measurement window, and a clear continue/stop implication.

All got right 8

Addresses the actual decisionRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It commits early to building Aisha's proposal scoped to duplicate purchases and states how retention and ticket results would change the household bet.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It commits to a clear first build (one list, two separate accounts, reliable coordination) and states the decision gates that would change the answer.

Respects explicit constraintsRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It stays within the memo form and length, respects the team/quarter constraint, and enforces the location constraint by excluding location tracking and using a manual shopping toggle.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It respects the legal location constraint, the team/quarter constraint, and the memo form/length.

Identifies material uncertaintyRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It names the key uncertainty that the retention gap may be selection and proposes a randomized holdout to resolve it, plus decision points for lift versus no lift.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It names selection bias, the lists-vs-users denominator, and the need for randomized rollout and mature cohorts, with gates to resolve them.

Avoids unsupported claimsRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It labels the causal interpretation of the retention gap as uncertain and avoids presenting AI, commerce, or growth-loop outcomes as established facts.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It labels causal uncertainty and future possibilities as hypotheses or directions rather than established facts.

Produces the required deliverableRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It is a usable memo for Lena and Aisha that gives the 1000x version, the first build, and measurement plan within the requested length.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It is a memo for Lena and Aisha, under 700 words, and actionable as written.

Finds the mechanism in the dataRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It centers household coordination and uses the 71%/22% retention gap, 38% second-device item share, and 1,900 duplicate-purchase tickets as the evidence.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It centers household coordination and uses the supplied retention, second-device item share, and duplicate-ticket evidence.

A first step that tests the big ideaRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

The first step is scoped to one partner, real-time sync, attribution, duplicate protection, and login-sharer migration, which fits four engineers and a designer in a quarter and tests coordination.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

The first step is scoped to four engineers and a designer in a quarter and directly tests the coordination mechanism.

Extreme, then back to buildableRightRight
Sonnet 5.5 · API

It pushes the idea to the household as the customer, then works back to a buildable first step that preserves the coordination mechanism.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It pushes the idea to a household coordination layer, then works back to a buildable first step with the same mechanism.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task, across all cases and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated: the graders match our PM on 89% of checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT95.295.52None
2GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI92.786.72None
3GPT-6 LunawithAPI88.278.82None
4Opus 5.5withClaude90.774.62None
5Sonnet 5.5withAPI90.265.92None
6Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI71.134.521 capped
7Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini61.417.02None

About the task

The PM job

Finding the bigger version of a good idea.

Why it matters

Ambition without mechanism is fan fiction. The useful version pushes to the extreme, then works back to something buildable.

What good looks like

  • Names the mechanism that scales
  • Keeps the core insight
  • Works back to a first step you could build

Deliberately not measured

    Capability tested

    Ambitious expansion

    The failure we’re looking for

    Bigger adjectives, same idea

    Grading

    Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review

    This task measures the whole setup. Tools, instructions and skills in the harness do real work here, so read the harness as carefully as the model name.