Tasks / Growth

Activation & onboarding review

Can the model find the friction that matters most and prioritise the fixes?

Task type v1.1 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 18 graded outputs by 9 models. 67% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Respects explicit constraints100% pass
    The output is a review addressed to Omar, well under 800 words, and respects the requested form.
    GPT-6 Luna · API · The checklist isn't the moment
  2. Produces the required deliverable100% pass
    The review covers activation definition, evidence, changes, design proposal, and goal, is addressed to Omar, within length, and is actionable.
    GPT-6 Luna · API · The checklist isn't the moment
  3. Activation defined by what predicts retention100% pass
    Activation is defined by the behaviour that predicts retention (bank+cat 10+), and fixes are judged by their effect on that event.
    GPT-6 Luna · API · The checklist isn't the moment

Where it slips

  1. Avoids unsupported claims26% pass
    States 'App-open frequency is an outcome, not a cause' as an established fact, but only correlation is shown in the data; this causal direction is an unsupported interpretation.
    Haiku 5.5 · API · The checklist isn't the moment
  2. Identifies material uncertainty61% pass
    Does not name specific unknowns that could change the decision, only suggests tracking metrics before expanding.
    GPT-6 Luna · API · Analytics tool losing users at setup
  3. Uses the supplied evidence correctly64% pass
    The output states 'we have no step-level data for screens 2–8', 'a blank builder is hard for non-analysts', and 'people invite colleagues to something useful, not to a setup screen' as facts, none of which appear in the brief or follow from arithmetic.
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · Analytics tool losing users at setup

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

  1. Activation defined by what predicts retention

    Does the review define (or question) the activation event by whether it predicts retention, and judge fixes by their effect on that event rather than on step completion?

    Passes when Names the activation behaviour and its link to retention (from the supplied data, or as an explicit assumption to verify), and ranks fixes by their effect on it.

  2. Gets people to value sooner

    Do the recommended fixes shorten the path to the first moment of value, by removing or deferring steps before it or starting people with templates or sample data, rather than adding tours, tooltips or extra steps?

    Passes when The main fixes cut or defer steps before first value, or give a warm start, and say which steps go.

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · Gets the base of every number right · and 1 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

Review our onboarding flow and funnel below. Write a memo to the onboarding squad saying where we are losing people and what to fix, in the order you would fix it, with the reason for each. Keep it under 500 words.

What the model was given4 items: Scenario, Funnel (last 90 days, 12,400 signups), Onboarding flow, screen by screen, Support
ScenarioChartwise is a self-serve product-analytics tool. Most people who sign up are product managers or marketers, not data engineers. Pricing starts at $49 a month after a 14-day free trial.
Funnel (last 90 days, 12,400 signups)Signup 100% → Connect data source 41% → First chart 33% → Invite teammate 9%. Week-2 retention: 62% for users who reach a first chart, 11% otherwise.
Onboarding flow, screen by screen1. Sign up: email, password, company name. 2. Verify email: the flow pauses until the link is clicked. 3. “What's your role?” (seven options). 4. “How big is your team?” (five options). 5. Connect your data: choose Postgres, BigQuery, Snowflake or CSV upload. There is no sample data and no skip. 6. Connection form: host, port, database, username, password and SSL mode. The help link opens a 14-page setup guide. 7. Choose tables: a list of every table in the database. 8. Syncing: a progress bar that can take up to 20 minutes; leaving the page cancels the sync. 9. Pick a dashboard template (twelve options). 10. First chart: a chart builder with an empty canvas. 11. Invite teammates: email fields, with a “Skip for now” link.
SupportThe most common onboarding ticket (41% of them) is some version of “I don't have the database credentials.” The next is “my sync failed” (18%).
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

The data-source connection step (screens 5–8) is the activation bottleneck; prioritise a sample-data or CSV-first path to a first chart, then non-admin credential handoff and a sync that survives leaving the page, ahead of cosmetic fixes.

Task

Mid-level · v1.13

The outputs

9 setups answered this brief.

Usable with a quick edit6 of 10 checks passed

The memo is well-structured, evidence-based, and actionable; a quick edit to rephrase the unsupported SSL-mode claim and add a condition-note would make it fully usable without redoing research.

Output

MEMO To: Onboarding Squad From: Product Leadership Subject: Fixing the Onboarding Funnel

Team,

Looking at the last 90 days, the story is clear: getting users to their first chart is everything. Week-2 retention jumps from 11% to 62% once a user builds a chart.

Right now, we are losing 59% of signups before they ever connect data, and another 8% before they build that first chart. Why? Because our signups are PMs and marketers, yet we are forcing them through a data-engineer onboarding flow.

Here is where we are losing people and what we need to fix, in priority order:

1. Add a “Send to an Engineer” flow & Sample Data (Screens 5–6) * The Problem: 59% of users drop off before connecting data, and 41% of support tickets are “I don’t have database credentials.” PMs and marketers don't have Postgres passwords or understand SSL modes, and a 14-page guide won't help them. Because there is no skip option, they hit a hard wall. * The Fix: Add two buttons to Screen 5: “Explore with Sample Data” and “Invite an Engineer to connect data.” Let the PM experience the "aha" moment immediately with a sandbox dataset while their engineer handles the credentials in parallel. This also instantly fixes our low 9% teammate-invite rate by giving users a real reason to invite a colleague early.

2. Make data syncing asynchronous (Screen 8) * The Problem: We lose 8% of our total signups (nearly 20% of those who actually manage to connect data) between connecting a source and building a chart. A 20-minute progress bar that cancels if you close the tab is a conversion killer, and it's driving 18% of our support tickets. * The Fix: Move syncing to the background. Let users close the tab (or play with sample data) and email them the moment their data is ready. Also, replace the raw list of every database table (Screen 7) with smart defaults so non-technical users aren't overwhelmed.

3. Eliminate the "Empty Canvas" (Screens 9–10) * The Problem: A user picks a dashboard template on Screen 9, only to be dropped into a blank chart builder on Screen 10. Blank canvases cause analysis paralysis. * The Fix: Make the templates on Screen 9 actually populate pre-built charts on Screen 10 using their data (or the sample data). Give them a working chart immediately that they can tweak, getting them across that 62% retention threshold automatically.

4. Remove pre-value friction (Screens 2–4) * The Problem: We pause the flow for email verification and ask two CRM-style profiling questions before the user has seen the product. Every step here costs us momentum. * The Fix: Let users into the product immediately and require email verification later (e.g., before they can share a chart). Cut the “team size” question entirely, and only keep “role” if we use it to auto-select their dashboard template in Step 9.

Let's scope Item #1 for this sprint.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • PMs and marketers don't have Postgres passwords or understand SSL modes, and a 14-page guide won't help them.

Grades and run details

Decision model 70 · LLM judge 64
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly69%
  • failAddresses the actual decision49%
  • passRespects explicit constraints61%
  • failIdentifies material uncertainty100%
  • failAvoids unsupported claims86%
  • passProduces the required deliverable95%
  • passPrioritises by impact97%
  • passActivation defined by what predicts retention100%
  • passGets the base of every number right45%
  • passGets people to value sooner97%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
8 s
Submitted
13 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit8 of 10 checks passed

The output is well-structured, data-driven, and actionable. A quick edit to soften one unsupported claim would make it fully ready.

Output

To: Onboarding squad Subject: Prioritize getting users to a useful first chart

Our biggest leak is before data connection: 59% of signups—7,316 people—never connect a source. Another 8 percentage points disappear before the first chart. Only 9% invite a teammate, but collaboration should come after users see value.

First-chart users have 62% week-2 retention versus 11% for everyone else. That makes time-to-first-chart our priority, although this correlation does not prove that creating a chart causes retention.

Fixes, in priority order

1. Remove the database-credentials gate. Offer a prominent sample-data path and a clearly explained CSV path. Let users request access from a data owner without abandoning onboarding. For database connections, replace the 14-page guide with source-specific instructions, inline examples, and actionable error messages.

Why first: Our audience is mostly PMs and marketers, yet onboarding assumes database expertise and access. “I don’t have the credentials” accounts for 41% of onboarding tickets. Sample data can demonstrate value immediately, but we should separately measure whether those users eventually connect their own data.

2. Make syncing resilient and asynchronous. Run syncs server-side so leaving the page does not cancel them. Show status, provide completion notifications, and support retries with clear failure explanations. Where technically feasible, sync a useful subset first rather than requiring a full load.

Why second: A wait of up to 20 minutes is already costly; requiring an open tab makes it fragile. Sync failures account for another 18% of tickets and block users who have overcome the access hurdle.

3. Deliver a chart, not another blank canvas. Recommend relevant tables rather than listing everything. Reduce twelve templates to a few guided choices, then populate a starter chart that users can edit.

Why third: Choosing a template and then seeing an empty builder breaks the promise of guidance. About 20% of connected users fail to reach a first chart. Focus on a useful result, not merely recording a chart-creation event.

4. Shorten the route to value. Move role and team-size questions until after the first chart, unless they directly personalize onboarding. Allow users to explore before email verification where security requirements permit.

Why fourth: These steps add friction before any payoff, but we lack screen-level evidence that they explain the largest losses.

5. Make invitations contextual. Prompt users to share a useful chart after success; keep invitations optional. Distinguish “ask a data owner for access” from “invite a collaborator.”

Why fifth: Low invitation rates may reflect weak activation, not a broken invitation screen.

Instrument every screen, connection method, and sync failure. Evaluate changes on useful first-chart completion, time to value, own-data activation, and week-2 retention—not just step clicks.

Grades and run details

Decision model 90 · LLM judge 82
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly62%
  • passAddresses the actual decision53%
  • passRespects explicit constraints48%
  • partialIdentifies material uncertainty25%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims31%
  • passProduces the required deliverable94%
  • passPrioritises by impact98%
  • passActivation defined by what predicts retention100%
  • passGets the base of every number right49%
  • passGets people to value sooner98%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
17 s
Submitted
29 Sept 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 3

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyMixedRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The claim 'PMs and marketers don't understand SSL modes' is not supported by the brief or supplied context; it is invented.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

All factual claims about the current situation are taken directly from the brief or derived correctly by arithmetic.

Addresses the actual decisionWrongMixed
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The output does not state any condition or result that would change the prioritized answer, as required by the criteria.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

The output commits to a ranked order but does not state what result or condition would change that call, as required.

Identifies material uncertaintyWrongRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

It does not name any unknowns that could change the decision or say how they would be resolved.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It names the correlation-causation caveat, the need to measure own-data activation, and the lack of screen-level evidence, and says to instrument and evaluate to resolve unknowns.

All got wrong 1

Avoids unsupported claimsWrongWrong
Gemini 4 Argon · API

It presents interpretations like 'PMs don't understand SSL modes' and 'blank canvases cause analysis paralysis' as established facts without labelling them as hypotheses.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

The statement 'Choosing a template and then seeing an empty builder breaks the promise of guidance' presents an interpretation as fact without support from the supplied evidence.

All got right 6

Respects explicit constraintsRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The memo is under 500 words, addressed to the onboarding squad, and proposes fixes that respect the brief's constraints.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

The output is a memo to the onboarding squad, under 500 words, and respects the requested form and length.

Produces the required deliverableRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The deliverable is a complete memo with a prioritized list of fixes and reasons, under 500 words, ready for the onboarding squad.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

The memo is complete, actionable, and within the word limit; a PM could act on it with light edits.

Prioritises by impactRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Fixes are ordered by impact on the activation bottleneck, starting with the biggest drop-off before connecting data.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Fixes are ranked by likely impact on activation, starting with the largest drop at the data-connection gate.

Activation defined by what predicts retentionRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

It explicitly defines activation as building a first chart because of its retention lift (62% vs 11%) and ranks fixes by their effect on reaching that event.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

It defines activation as reaching a first chart, links it to retention, and judges fixes by their effect on that event.

Gets the base of every number rightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

All derived percentages (59%, 8%) are correctly computed from the funnel steps, and bases like support tickets are stated where ambiguous.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

All derived percentages and numbers are computed from the correct steps and denominators, and bases are stated where needed.

Gets people to value soonerRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Main fixes cut or defer steps before first value (sample data, invite engineer, defer email verification) and give a warm start with pre-populated charts.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

The main fixes cut or defer steps before first value (sample data, CSV, defer role questions) and give a warm start (populated starter chart).

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated. Where our PM checked the graders by hand, they agreed on 72% of 53 checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1Sonnet 5.5withAPI83.6100.02None
2GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT86.195.52None
3GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI83.690.92None
4Haiku 5.5withAPI88.086.72None
5GPT-6 LunawithAPI92.781.82None
6Opus 5.5withClaude81.478.42None
7Gemini 4 ArgonwithAPI73.665.22None
8Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI71.451.92None
9Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini60.039.42None

What you get for the cost

GPT-6 Luna · API scores within 5 points of Sonnet 5.5 · API at about a thirtieth of the cost.

Task score against relative cost for each setup. The table below has the same figures.4050607080901001×3×10×30×100×Cost per output, relative to the cheapest setup (log scale) →↑ Task scoreSonnet 5.5 · API: task score 93, 32× the cheapestGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT: task score 91, 122× the cheapest (1 of 2 outputs estimated)GPT-6.1 Sol · API: task score 88, 15× the cheapestHaiku 5.5 · API: task score 88, 1.8× the cheapestGPT-6 Luna · API: task score 88, the cheapestOpus 5.5 · Claude: task score 79, 101× the cheapest (1 of 2 outputs estimated)Gemini 4 Argon · API: task score 68, 15× the cheapestGemini 3.8 Flash · API: task score 59, 13× the cheapestGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini: task score 47, 3.4× the cheapest (1 of 2 outputs estimated)Sonnet 5.5 · APIGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPTGPT-6.1 Sol · APIHaiku 5.5 · APIGPT-6 Luna · APIOpus 5.5 · ClaudeGemini 4 Argon · APIGemini 3.8 Flash · APIGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini
Best valueNobody beats these on both score and costCost partly estimated (app runs with no usage meter)
Task score and relative cost by setup
SetupTask scoreRelative cost (cheapest = 1)
GPT-6 Luna · API881.0×
Haiku 5.5 · API881.8×
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini473.4× (partly estimated)
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API5913×
GPT-6.1 Sol · API8815×
Gemini 4 Argon · API6815×
Sonnet 5.5 · API9332×
Opus 5.5 · Claude79101× (partly estimated)
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT91122× (partly estimated)

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

About the task

The PM job

Reviewing a signup and onboarding flow that is losing users.

Why it matters

Anyone can list fifty UX nits. The job is finding the two that explain the drop-off, backed by the funnel data supplied.

What good looks like

  • Ties each issue to the funnel data
  • Prioritises by likely impact
  • Defines activation as the behaviour that predicts retention, not finishing onboarding

Deliberately not measured

  • Accessibility audit completeness
  • Visual redesign
Capability tested

Consequential critique

The failure we’re looking for

A generic UX checklist

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review