Usable with a quick edit9 of 9 checks passed
The memo is clear, actionable, and prioritised; only minor stylistic edits would be needed.
Output
To: Growth PM Subject: Prioritise repeat workouts over an onboarding redesign
We should redirect the quarter’s work towards helping people fit workouts into their lives and return after missing one. The questionnaire and paywall deserve attention, but a full redesign is premature.
Assuming the funnel percentages share an install denominator, 92% of trial starters reach a first workout (48/52), but only 40% of first-workout users reach three sessions (19/48). We also lose 29% before onboarding finishes.1 Both matter, but the current plan leaves the substantial repeat-workout drop untouched.
Three workouts is a useful activation hypothesis. The fourfold association with day-60 subscription does not prove causation: more motivated users may both exercise more and stay subscribed.
1. Make repeat workouts achievable, including after a missed day.
Offer a 10–15-minute option alongside full sessions, with suitable adjustments for fitness level, equipment and injuries. After a missed workout, let users reschedule or choose a shorter session rather than automatically advancing the plan.
Requiring 30–45 minutes every time creates a substantial commitment before a routine exists.2 Recovery should be part of the experience, not something users must work out themselves. Test whether these options increase repeat participation and total active minutes, rather than simply inflating completion counts.
2. Offer a first workout immediately and respect the user’s schedule.
After trial activation, offer “Start a short workout now” or let users choose their first session time. Replace the fixed day-one 7am push with their chosen time.
Scheduling everyone for tomorrow wastes initial motivation and consumes part of a seven-day trial before value is experienced. This ranks below repeat-workout flexibility because first-workout conversion among trial starters is already strong.
3. Show progress during the week and make reminders actionable.
Show the first completed session immediately and progress towards a user-chosen weekly goal. Avoid making consecutive-day streaks the default for people who selected fewer workout days.
Use reminders that offer a relevant next step: start, shorten or reschedule. Stop treating every day as another generic prompt. Measure notification opt-outs alongside workout returns.
4. Simplify onboarding through focused experiments.
Keep information needed for safe, relevant workouts upfront, particularly injuries, fitness level and equipment. Test deferring other questions unless their answers change the initial experience. Inspect question-level abandonment before redesigning all nine.
Keep the card requirement and £9.99 charge after seven days clear. Test whether showing a useful plan preview before the paywall improves informed trial starts.
How we decide
Validate funnel definitions and baseline volumes, then test these changes in priority order. Use week-one repeat workouts as an early signal, followed by trial-to-paid conversion and day-60 retention. Track cancellations, refunds and workout-related complaints. Ship changes that improve sustained participation and subscription outcomes, not just trial starts.
What a PM had to fix
1Contradiction missedSurface the contradictionTargeted repair
Source: Funnel
Install → finished onboarding 71% → started trial 52%
What we’d changeAccount for the onboarding-to-trial step: 71% finish onboarding but 52% start the trial, so about a quarter stop at the card-up-front paywall. That bears directly on the team's paywall plan.
2Hypothesis stated as factReframe it as a hypothesisQuick edit
What we’d changePresent the reasons as hypotheses to test, as the memo already does for the 4x figure.
Check by check
Got right · 9
- Uses the supplied evidence correctlyAll statements about the current situation are taken directly from the brief or derived arithmetically with a clearly stated assumption.
- Addresses the actual decisionCommits to redirecting quarter's work and ranks four changes in priority order, with a measurement plan to validate.
- Respects explicit constraintsDelivers a memo to the Growth PM under 500 words, respecting form and length.
- Identifies material uncertaintyAcknowledges the activation hypothesis may not be causal, flags need to validate funnel definitions and baseline volumes, and outlines metrics to inform the decision.
- Avoids unsupported claimsLabels causation hypothesis and interpretations as such, and does not present unsupported claims as fact.
- Produces the required deliverableProvides a complete, actionable memo that a growth PM could implement without major gaps.
- Prioritises by impactRanks changes by likely impact on achieving three workouts, aligned with the identified activation threshold.
- Activation defined by what predicts retentionDefines activation as three workouts linked to day-60 retention, and evaluates fixes by effect on that event.
- Gets the base of every number rightDerived percentages correctly use trial starters (48/52) and first-workout users (19/48), with the base stated via the assumption.
Grades and run details
Decision model 100 · LLM judge 10 of 10 checks
Decision model checks
- passUses the supplied evidence correctly25%
- passAddresses the actual decision91%
- passRespects explicit constraints51%
- passIdentifies material uncertainty63%
- passAvoids unsupported claims43%
- passProduces the required deliverable91%
- passPrioritises by impact95%
- passActivation defined by what predicts retention100%
- passGets the base of every number right59%
Run
- Run
- #1
- Time to output
- 39 s
- Submitted
- 25 Sept 2026