Tasks / Growth

Activation & onboarding review

Can the model find the friction that matters most and prioritise the fixes?

Task type v1.1 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 16 graded outputs by 8 models. 69% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Respects explicit constraints100% pass
    The output is a review addressed to Omar, well under 800 words, and respects the requested form.
    GPT-6 Luna · API · The checklist isn't the moment
  2. Produces the required deliverable100% pass
    The review covers activation definition, evidence, changes, design proposal, and goal, is addressed to Omar, within length, and is actionable.
    GPT-6 Luna · API · The checklist isn't the moment
  3. Activation defined by what predicts retention100% pass
    Activation is defined by the behaviour that predicts retention (bank+cat 10+), and fixes are judged by their effect on that event.
    GPT-6 Luna · API · The checklist isn't the moment

Where it slips

  1. Uses the supplied evidence correctly44% pass
    The output states 'we have no step-level data for screens 2–8', 'a blank builder is hard for non-analysts', and 'people invite colleagues to something useful, not to a setup screen' as facts, none of which appear in the brief or follow from arithmetic.
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · Analytics tool losing users at setup
  2. Avoids unsupported claims55% pass
    It presents 'a blank builder is hard for non-analysts' and 'people invite colleagues to something useful, not to a setup screen' as established facts without labelling them as hypotheses.
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · Analytics tool losing users at setup
  3. Addresses the actual decision56% pass
    The output commits to a ranked order but does not state what result or condition would change that order, as required.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Analytics tool losing users at setup

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

  1. Activation defined by what predicts retention

    Does the review define (or question) the activation event by whether it predicts retention, and judge fixes by their effect on that event rather than on step completion?

    Passes when Names the activation behaviour and its link to retention (from the supplied data, or as an explicit assumption to verify), and ranks fixes by their effect on it.

  2. Gets people to value sooner

    Do the recommended fixes shorten the path to the first moment of value, by removing or deferring steps before it or starting people with templates or sample data, rather than adding tours, tooltips or extra steps?

    Passes when The main fixes cut or defer steps before first value, or give a warm start, and say which steps go.

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · Gets the base of every number right · and 2 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're the PM for onboarding at Tidepool. Omar, our Head of Product, has asked for a review of onboarding (his note is below). Write it in no more than 800 words: what activation should mean for us, the evidence, what to change in onboarding, and what to make of the design team's proposal and next quarter's goal. The files are attached.

What the model was given4 items: About Tidepool, omar_note.md, onboarding_today.md, first_week_behaviour.csv (August sign-ups: how many who did each thing in their first week were still active at day 60)
About TidepoolA personal finance app: connect your bank, see where your money goes, and budget.
omar_note.md1 lines · Download
From Omar (Head of Product): "Activation is flat at 61%. Review our onboarding and tell me what to fix. The design team has proposed a celebration screen and a progress bar for the checklist."
onboarding_today.md8 lines · Download
# Onboarding today (for 4,000 sign-ups in August)

1. Sign up (100%)
2. Setup checklist: name your account, pick a theme, set a savings goal, enable notifications (61% complete it)
3. Connect a bank (50%)
4. Categorise transactions (34% reach 10)

…
first_week_behaviour.csv (August sign-ups: how many who did each thing in their first week were still active at day 60)first_week_behaviour,retained_at_day_60,churned_by_day_60 All sign-ups,1120,2880 Completed the setup checklist,742,1696 Connected a bank account,964,1036 Categorised 10+ transactions,891,489 Connected a bank AND categorised 10+ transactions,842,238 Created a budget,410,820 Opened the app 4+ days,870,1310
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Works out retention for each first-week behaviour from the file: all sign-ups 28% (1,120 of 4,000); completed the checklist about 30% (barely better than average); connected a bank about 48%; categorised 10+ transactions about 65%; connected a bank and categorised 10+ about 78%, and that group is about three-quarters of everyone retained (842 of 1,120). So the checklist isn't activation and raising its completion to 75% would do little; activation should be connecting a bank and categorising ten transactions in week one. Recommends cutting or deferring checklist steps that sit before that (theme, notifications, savings goal) and getting people to connect a bank and categorise sooner (for example suggested categories to confirm), and resets the goal to the new activation rate (about 27% today, 1,080 of 4,000). Treats the celebration screen and progress bar as polishing the wrong step. Notes that the data shows correlation and proposes a test to confirm that driving the behaviour improves retention.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Recommends raising checklist completion as the main goal
Task

Staff-level · v1.0

The outputs

8 setups answered this brief.

Needs more than a quick edit4 of 11 checks passed

The output misstates the baseline activation rate (34% instead of 27%) and lacks a causation test, so a PM would need to re-check the numbers and add a test plan.

Output

To: Omar, Head of Product From: PM, Onboarding Date: September 2024 Subject: Onboarding Review & Activation Strategy

---

1. What Activation Should Mean for Us

Currently, our definition of activation—completing a checklist of cosmetic preferences (name, theme, savings goal, notifications)—is flawed. It measures vanity completion rather than value realization.

As a personal finance app, Tidepool delivers core value when users connect their financial reality and engage with it. Looking at our August cohort (4,000 sign-ups), the data tells a clear story about Day 60 retention:

  • Checklist completers retain at 30.4% (742/2,438).
  • Bank connectors retain at 48.2% (964/2,000).
  • Users who categorise 10+ transactions retain at 64.5% (891/1,380).
  • Users who do BOTH (Connect + Categorise) retain at 78.0% (842/1,080).

Recommendation: We must redefine "Activation" from “completed the setup checklist” to “Connected a bank AND categorised at least 10 transactions within their first week.” This anchors our success metric to actual product utility, shifting our focus from cosmetic setup to establishing long-term financial habits.

---

2. The Evidence: Where We Are Losing Users

Our current funnel drops off steeply: 1. Sign up: 4,000 (100%) 2. Setup checklist: 2,440 (61%) 3. Connect a bank: 2,000 (50%) 4. Categorise 10 transactions: 1,360 (34%)

The biggest leak is bank connection (dropping 11 percentage points right after the checklist) and transaction categorisation (dropping another 16 points).

Interestingly, the checklist itself acts as a barrier. Users are spending cognitive load on naming accounts and picking themes before experiencing the core product. Meanwhile, power features like "Created a budget" (33% retention) and opening the app 4+ days are strong secondary indicators, but bank linking and categorisation are the undisputed gateways to retention.

---

3. What to Change in Onboarding

To drive our new definition of activation, we need to restructure the first-time user experience (FTUX):

  • Kill the upfront setup checklist: Strip out non-essential steps (naming accounts, picking themes, notifications) from the critical path. Move them to profile settings or prompt for them after value has been proven.
  • Accelerate time-to-bank: Move bank connection immediately following sign-up. Users downloaded Tidepool to see their money; let them see it instantly via Plaid/Aggregator integration.
  • Gamify the "aha" moment: Guide users smoothly from bank connection directly into categorising their first 10 transactions. Use smart auto-categorisation with a clear, frictionless bulk-approval or swipe UI to make reaching the 10-transaction milestone effortless.

---

4. Verdict on the Design Proposal and Next Quarter's Goal

The Design Team’s Proposal (Celebration screen + Progress bar): * Verdict: Reject in its current form. Adding a progress bar and celebration screen for the existing checklist optimizes the wrong metric. It puts lipstick on a superficial activation loop. * Pivot: If we redesign onboarding to focus on connecting a bank and categorising transactions, then we can use a celebration screen and progress bar—not to celebrate picking a theme, but to celebrate linking an account and hitting that crucial 10-transaction milestone.

Next Quarter's Goal (Raise checklist completion from 61% to 75%): * Verdict: Abandon this goal. Optimizing checklist completion is a local maximum that misaligns product and user success. Chasing 75% checklist completion will likely result in higher drop-offs further down the funnel and flat-to-declining Day 60 retention. * New Goal: We should replace this with a target to raise our true activation rate (Bank Connected + 10 Transactions Categorised) from the current baseline (~34%) to 50% next quarter. This directly correlates with our actual business health and user retention.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • The checklist itself acts as a barrier.
  • Users are spending cognitive load on naming accounts and picking themes before experiencing the core product.
  • Bank linking and categorisation are the undisputed gateways to retention.

Grades and run details

Decision model 50 · LLM judge 33
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly41%
  • passAddresses the actual decision53%
  • passRespects explicit constraints33%
  • failIdentifies material uncertainty87%
  • failAvoids unsupported claims33%
  • passProduces the required deliverable48%
  • partialComputes retention by behaviour25%
  • failTests before trusting the correlation98%
  • passActivation defined by what predicts retention99%
  • failGets the base of every number right55%
  • passGets people to value sooner93%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
5 s
Submitted
5 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit9 of 11 checks passed

The output is a complete, data-driven review with clear recommendations and next steps, requiring no re-checking of evidence or reasoning.

Output

To: Omar | Re: Onboarding review

Recommendation

Activation should mean connecting a bank and categorising 10+ transactions in the first week. Our current definition, completing the setup checklist, barely predicts retention, so the 61% is flat for a reason: we're measuring the wrong thing. I'd fix the path to the real activation event, use the design team's ideas only on that path, and replace next quarter's goal.

Evidence (4,000 August sign-ups, day-60 retention)

First-week behaviourUsersRetained at day 60
All sign-ups4,00028%
Completed checklist2,43830%
Did not complete checklist1,56224%
Connected bank2,00048%
Did not connect bank2,0008%
Categorised 10+1,38065%
Budget created1,23033%
Opened app 4+ days2,18040%
Bank AND 10+ categorised1,08078%

Three things stand out:

  • The checklist is a weak signal. Checklist completers retain at 30%, against 28% for everyone. The checklist is theme, notifications, account name and goal, so it's mostly cosmetic setup.
  • The combination matters, not either step alone. Backing out the overlaps from the CSV:
  • Bank only (no categorising): about 920 users, 13% retained.
  • Categorised only (no bank): about 300 users, 16% retained.
  • Neither: about 1,700 users, 6% retained.
  • Both: 78% retained.

Users who connect but never see their spending sorted do worse than average. The value moment is seeing where the money goes, which needs both steps. - Budgets and app opens aren't the answer. Budget creators retain at 33%, close to baseline. Opening the app 4+ days (40%) is engagement, not a lever we can pull in onboarding.

Caveat: this is observational. Motivated users probably do everything, so these numbers show who retains, not what causes it. The recommendations below are therefore tests, not guarantees.

What to change

The funnel is 100% → 50% connect → 27% connect and categorise. There are two leaks:

  1. Half of users never connect a bank, and they retain at 8%. Put bank connection first, straight after sign-up. Move theme, notifications and account name out of the critical path (defer or drop them). Look at where the connect flow fails and whether trust copy (read-only access, security) is needed. I can't tell from this data whether the checklist is causing bank drop-off, so I'd A/B test bank-first against the current order.
  2. 46% of those who connect (920 of 2,000) never reach 10 categorised transactions. This is the biggest fixable gap, since 78% of those who finish retain. Auto-categorise on connect, pre-fill best guesses, and walk users through their first 10 with one-tap confirmations rather than leaving them to find the feature.

I'd also instrument the funnel by step and by time, so we can see where in the first week people stall.

The design team's proposal

A celebration screen and a progress bar for the checklist would probably raise checklist completion, but that metric barely relates to retention, so we'd likely see a "win" with no change in retained users. I wouldn't ship them as proposed. Both ideas are cheap and sound, though, so I'd redirect them:

  • Make the progress bar track the real path (connect bank → categorise 10).
  • Put the celebration at the moment of value, such as the 10th categorised transaction, ideally with a first insight ("here's where your money went").

This is a good way to involve design in the work above rather than rejecting their proposal.

Next quarter's goal

Drop "checklist completion 61% → 75%". Pushing it up could even pull effort toward low-value steps.

Replace it with: percentage of sign-ups who connect a bank and categorise 10+ transactions within 7 days. Baseline is 27%. I'd propose a target around 35%, but that is a judgment call until we've sized the effect of the first experiments, so let's set it after a few weeks of data. Guardrail: day-60 retention among those users should hold near its current 78% (if we widen the funnel with less-motivated users, it may dip, and we should watch that). Track the real outcome, overall day-60 retention (28% today), alongside it.

Next steps

  • Run the bank-first vs current-order A/B.
  • Prototype auto-categorisation and a guided first-10 flow.
  • Work with design on the redirected progress bar and celebration.
  • Agree the new activation definition and dashboard before the quarter starts.

I'm happy to walk through the numbers if useful.

Grades and run details

Decision model 82 · LLM judge 100
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly77%
  • passAddresses the actual decision89%
  • passRespects explicit constraints51%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty91%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims35%
  • passProduces the required deliverable65%
  • passComputes retention by behaviour46%
  • passTests before trusting the correlation95%
  • passActivation defined by what predicts retention100%
  • failGets the base of every number right56%
  • passGets people to value sooner71%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
26 s
Submitted
6 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit9 of 11 checks passed

The review is clear, evidence-based, and covers all required points; a PM could act on it with only minor wording tweaks.

Output

Onboarding review: activate on financial value, not setup

Recommendation: Replace checklist completion as our activation metric with connecting a bank and categorising at least 10 transactions within seven days of signup. Reorient onboarding around that outcome. The celebration screen and progress bar are secondary; making the current checklist more engaging risks improving the wrong metric.

What activation should mean

For Tidepool, activation should mean a user has taken the first meaningful steps toward understanding their spending—not finished configuring the app.

Bank connection brings their financial data into Tidepool; categorisation makes that data useful. Together, these are our strongest available proxy for experiencing core value. This is a working definition, not proof that exactly 10 categorisations creates a lasting habit. We should validate the threshold and whether users actually understand something useful about their money.

Budget creation can follow that first insight. The evidence does not support making it a mandatory activation requirement today.

What the evidence says

Among August’s 4,000 signups, overall day-60 retention was 28%.

First-week behaviourUsersDay-60 retention
------:---:
Completed setup checklist2,43830.4%
Connected a bank2,00048.2%
Categorised 10+ transactions1,38064.6%
Connected a bank and categorised 10+1,08078.0%
Created a budget1,23033.3%
Opened the app on 4+ days2,18039.9%

The checklist has weak separation: completers retained at 30.4%, versus 24.2% for non-completers. Its 61% completion rate is therefore a poor headline measure of delivered value.

By contrast, only 27% of signups connected a bank and categorised 10+ transactions, but they accounted for 842 of 1,120 retained users—75% of everyone retained. Users who did not achieve both retained at 9.5%.

These are observational associations. More motivated users may both complete these actions and remain active; we cannot promise 78% retention simply by pushing people through them. Behaviour groups also overlap, so the reported steps should not be treated as a strictly sequential funnel. Before testing, reconcile the rounded onboarding figures with event counts and standardise the day-60 activity definition.

What to change

  1. Remove configuration as a gate to value. Defer theme selection and account naming; make savings goals optional. Request notification permission when there is a clear benefit, such as a relevant budget alert—not as checklist work.
  1. Bring bank connection forward. Explain why access is needed, what data is used, and how users retain control. Instrument connection starts, provider errors, unsupported banks, abandonment and successful imports. Preserve a skip/retry path rather than forcing consent.
  1. Guide users from imported transactions to spending insight. Offer a short, low-effort review of suggested categories. Let users confirm or correct them, then show an understandable spending summary. Do not require ten arbitrary manual edits merely to satisfy the metric.
  1. Offer a budget as the next useful action. Use the spending summary to suggest a realistic starting budget, rather than asking users to invent one before seeing their finances.

Test the redesigned flow against today’s onboarding. Measure seven-day activation first, then downstream retention; monitor connection failures, abandonment and user-reported trust and usefulness.

Design proposal and next quarter’s goal

A progress bar is worth testing if it tracks meaningful steps toward understanding spending. It should not encourage completion of low-value setup tasks. A celebration screen belongs after a genuine milestone and should reinforce the insight gained, not interrupt access to it. Neither should take priority over bank-connection and categorisation friction.

Replace the 61% → 75% checklist goal with a goal for the new activation definition. I propose 27% → 35% within seven days, provisionally, subject to instrumentation validation and early experiment results. That is a planning target—not a forecast supported by this dataset.

Keep checklist completion as a diagnostic. Judge success by increased meaningful activation without sacrificing trust or retention, and confirm the retention effect once next quarter’s cohorts mature.

Grades and run details

Decision model 82 · LLM judge 100
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly90%
  • passAddresses the actual decision86%
  • passRespects explicit constraints30%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty83%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims43%
  • passProduces the required deliverable42%
  • passComputes retention by behaviour32%
  • passTests before trusting the correlation97%
  • passActivation defined by what predicts retention99%
  • failGets the base of every number right82%
  • passGets people to value sooner78%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
30 s
Submitted
5 Oct 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 7

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyWrongMixedMixed
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output states 'the checklist itself acts as a barrier' and similar causal claims as facts, which are not in the supplied context and do not follow by arithmetic.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

All statements about the current situation are taken directly from the supplied context or derived correctly by arithmetic.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

All factual claims about the current situation are directly supported by the supplied context or correct arithmetic.

Addresses the actual decisionMixedRightRight
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output does not state what result or condition would change its recommendation, so it fails to commit with a clear change condition.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

The output commits early to a clear activation definition (connect bank and categorise 10+), gives a ranked set of changes, and says what would change the call (A/B test results).

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Commits early to a clear activation definition and changes, and states that validation and experiment results would change the call.

Identifies material uncertaintyWrongRightRight
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output does not name any unknowns that could change the decision or how they would be resolved.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

It explicitly names the correlation vs. causation risk, notes the data is observational, and proposes specific tests (bank-first A/B, auto-categorisation) with retention as the measure.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Names the observational nature, threshold uncertainty, and need for validation; says how to resolve them.

Avoids unsupported claimsWrongRightRight
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Interpretations like 'the checklist itself acts as a barrier' and 'undisputed gateways' are presented as established fact without being labelled as hypotheses.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Interpretations like 'the value moment is seeing where the money goes' are presented as conclusions from the data, not as established fact, and the overall review is cautious about causation.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Hypotheses and forecasts are clearly labelled as such, and confident claims are supported by the evidence.

Computes retention by behaviourWrongRightRight
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output does not compute the overall average retention (28%) and does not compare the subgroup rates to it.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

It computes day-60 retention for each first-week behaviour (checklist ~30%, bank+cat ~78%, average 28%) and compares them correctly.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Computes day-60 retention for each first-week behaviour and compares with the 28% average.

Tests before trusting the correlationWrongRightRight
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output does not note that the retention differences are correlations and does not propose a test to confirm causation.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

It notes the correlation risk and proposes a specific A/B test (bank-first vs. current order) with retention as the outcome, plus tracking overall retention.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Notes the correlation risk and proposes a specific test (redesigned flow vs. today, measuring retention) to check causation.

Gets the base of every number rightWrongMixedMixed
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The baseline for the new activation rate is given as ~34%, but the correct rate for 'connected bank AND categorised 10+' is 1,080/4,000 = 27%.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

All derived percentages and step-to-step changes use the correct denominators (e.g., 27% from 1,080/4,000, 78% from 842/1,080), and ambiguous bases are stated.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

All percentages are computed from the correct denominators, and bases are stated or clear from context.

All got right 4

Respects explicit constraintsRightRightRight
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output is a memo to Omar, under 800 words, and addresses the requested topics.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

The output is a review memo addressed to Omar, covers all requested topics, and is well under 800 words.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

The review is under 800 words, addresses Omar, and covers all requested elements.

Produces the required deliverableRightRightRight
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The review is complete, in memo form, within the word limit, and a PM could act on it with light edits.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

The output is a complete, actionable review in memo form, within the word limit, that Omar could act on without filling major gaps.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

The output is a complete review with recommendation, evidence, changes, and view on proposal and goal, usable as is.

Activation defined by what predicts retentionRightRightRight
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Activation is redefined based on retention prediction (bank + categorise), and fixes are judged by their effect on that event.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Activation is defined by the behaviour that predicts retention (bank + 10 categorised), and fixes are judged by their effect on that event, not on checklist completion.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Defines activation by retention (bank + categorise 10+) and ranks fixes by their effect on that event.

Gets people to value soonerRightRightRight
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The main fixes cut or defer checklist steps before value and move bank connection and categorisation earlier.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

The main fixes cut or defer steps before value (move bank connection first, defer theme/notifications/name) and give a warm start (auto-categorise, one-tap confirmations).

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Main fixes cut or defer configuration steps before value and bring bank connection and categorisation forward.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated. Where our PM checked the graders by hand, they agreed on 79% of 53 checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT85.995.52None
2Sonnet 5.5withAPI78.4100.02None
3GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI85.990.92None
4GPT-6 LunawithAPI90.081.82None
5Haiku 5.5withAPI75.986.72None
6Opus 5.5withClaude88.478.42None
7Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI66.651.92None
8Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini52.539.42None

What you get for the cost

GPT-6 Luna · API scores within 5 points of GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT at about a hundredth of the cost.

Task score against relative cost for each setup. The table below has the same figures.304050607080901001×3×10×30×100×Cost per output, relative to the cheapest setup (log scale) →↑ Task scoreGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT: task score 91, 122× the cheapest (1 of 2 outputs estimated)Sonnet 5.5 · API: task score 90, 32× the cheapestGPT-6.1 Sol · API: task score 89, 15× the cheapestGPT-6 Luna · API: task score 86, the cheapestHaiku 5.5 · API: task score 82, 1.8× the cheapestOpus 5.5 · Claude: task score 82, 101× the cheapest (1 of 2 outputs estimated)Gemini 3.8 Flash · API: task score 56, 13× the cheapestGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini: task score 44, 3.4× the cheapest (1 of 2 outputs estimated)GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPTSonnet 5.5 · APIGPT-6.1 Sol · APIGPT-6 Luna · APIHaiku 5.5 · APIOpus 5.5 · ClaudeGemini 3.8 Flash · APIGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini
Best valueNobody beats these on both score and costCost partly estimated (app runs with no usage meter)
Task score and relative cost by setup
SetupTask scoreRelative cost (cheapest = 1)
GPT-6 Luna · API861.0×
Haiku 5.5 · API821.8×
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini443.4× (partly estimated)
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API5613×
GPT-6.1 Sol · API8915×
Sonnet 5.5 · API9032×
Opus 5.5 · Claude82101× (partly estimated)
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT91122× (partly estimated)

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

About the task

The PM job

Reviewing a signup and onboarding flow that is losing users.

Why it matters

Anyone can list fifty UX nits. The job is finding the two that explain the drop-off, backed by the funnel data supplied.

What good looks like

  • Ties each issue to the funnel data
  • Prioritises by likely impact
  • Defines activation as the behaviour that predicts retention, not finishing onboarding

Deliberately not measured

  • Accessibility audit completeness
  • Visual redesign
Capability tested

Consequential critique

The failure we’re looking for

A generic UX checklist

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review