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Tasks / Strategy

Competitor analysis

Can the model find where a competitor can actually hurt you, from win/loss and churn data, rather than list features?

Task type v1.1 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 18 graded outputs by 9 models. 56% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Respects explicit constraints100% pass
    Delivers a competitive analysis memo to Dan within 900 words, addressing all requested topics without proposing a full feature-by-feature match.
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · The competitor isn't who you think
  2. Reads where Crestline is heading100% pass
    It reads Crestline's job ads as signalling payroll, mid-market, and possible accountant partnerships, and adjusts the response accordingly.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Free forever, funded
  3. Produces the required deliverable97% pass
    The memo is complete, in the right form for the CEO, within the word limit, and actionable with light edits.
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · The competitor isn't who you think

Where it slips

  1. Uses the supplied evidence correctly56% pass
    Two factual claims are wrong: the number of unconnected multi-user accounts going to Crestline is 40, not 42, and the number of connected 6-20 cancellations is 5, not 4.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · Free forever, funded
  2. Gets the base of every number right63% pass
    Derived figures for unconnected multi-user cancellations (42 vs actual 40) and connected 6-20 cancellations (4 vs actual 5) are incorrect.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · Free forever, funded
  3. Separates what a rival can copy68% pass
    Does not explicitly separate advantages a well-funded competitor could copy from those it couldn't, nor anchor the response in durable advantages with evidence.
    GPT-6 Luna · API · The competitor isn't who you think

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

  1. Competes with what customers really choose

    Does the analysis treat the status quo (spreadsheets, manual work, doing nothing) as a competitor, and draw at least one implication from where competitors are investing rather than only from today's features?

    Passes when Analyses the status quo, strengths included, and gives a direction-of-travel insight that affects the recommendation.

    April DunfordLenny’s Podcast

  2. Separates what a rival can copy

    Does the analysis separate advantages a well-funded competitor could copy (features, price, being first) from ones it couldn't easily (switching costs, networks, relationships), and build the response on the latter?

    Passes when Names which advantages are copyable and which aren't, with evidence, and anchors the response in the durable ones.

    Hamilton HelmerLenny’s Podcast

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · Gets the base of every number right · and 2 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're the PM for growth at Tallybook. Our CEO, Dan Whitlock, wants a feature-by-feature comparison against Billfront and a plan to match everything they have by Q2 (his note is below). Write him a competitive analysis of no more than 900 words: who we really lose to, where Billfront is a real threat and where it isn't, where it's heading, and what we should do instead of (or as well as) matching it. The files are attached.

What the model was given5 items: About Tallybook, ceo_note.md, deals_last_two_quarters.csv (trials that became deals, won or lost), customers_by_segment.md, billfront_public_info.md
About TallybookInvoicing and payments for freelancers and small businesses. Plans from $9 to $39 a month.
ceo_note.md1 lines · Download
From Dan (CEO): "Billfront is killing us. I want a full feature-by-feature comparison against them and a plan to match everything they have by Q2."
deals_last_two_quarters.csv (trials that became deals, won or lost)deal,segment,outcome,primary_reason,went_to T-900,Small business,won,, T-901,Freelancer,won,, T-902,Freelancer,won,, T-903,Small business,won,, T-904,Small business,lost,Accountant uses something else,Xero invoicing T-905,Small business,won,, T-906,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-907,Freelancer,won,, T-908,Freelancer,won,, T-909,Small business,won,, T-910,Freelancer,lost,Price,Billfront T-911,Freelancer,won,, T-912,Small business,lost,Price,Billfront T-913,Freelancer,won,, T-914,Freelancer,won,, T-915,Small business,won,, T-916,Freelancer,won,, T-917,Small business,won,, T-918,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Needs invoicing in several currencies with live rates,Billfront T-919,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Needs invoicing in several currencies with live rates,Billfront T-920,Freelancer,won,, T-921,Agency (multi-currency),won,, T-922,Small business,won,, T-923,Small business,won,, T-924,Small business,won,, T-925,Freelancer,won,, T-926,Freelancer,won,, T-927,Freelancer,won,, T-928,Small business,won,, T-929,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-930,Freelancer,lost,Stayed on spreadsheets / Word templates,No decision T-931,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Needs invoicing in several currencies with live rates,Billfront T-932,Small business,won,, T-933,Small business,won,, T-934,Small business,won,, T-935,Freelancer,lost,Stayed on spreadsheets / Word templates,No decision T-936,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-937,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-938,Agency (multi-currency),won,, T-939,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-940,Small business,won,, T-941,Freelancer,lost,Stayed on spreadsheets / Word templates,No decision T-942,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Needs invoicing in several currencies with live rates,Billfront T-943,Freelancer,won,, T-944,Small business,won,, T-945,Small business,lost,Accountant uses something else,Xero invoicing T-946,Small business,won,, T-947,Small business,won,, T-948,Small business,won,, T-949,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-950,Freelancer,lost,Stayed on spreadsheets / Word templates,No decision T-951,Freelancer,won,, T-952,Freelancer,won,, T-953,Freelancer,won,, T-954,Agency (multi-currency),won,, T-955,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-956,Freelancer,lost,Stayed on spreadsheets / Word templates,No decision T-957,Freelancer,won,, T-958,Small business,won,, T-959,Freelancer,won,, T-960,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-961,Freelancer,won,, T-962,Small business,won,, T-963,Agency (multi-currency),won,, T-964,Small business,won,, T-965,Small business,won,, T-966,Small business,won,, T-967,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-968,Freelancer,lost,Stayed on spreadsheets / Word templates,No decision T-969,Small business,won,, T-970,Freelancer,lost,Price,Billfront T-971,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-972,Small business,lost,Accountant uses something else,Xero invoicing T-973,Small business,lost,Accountant uses something else,Xero invoicing T-974,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Needs invoicing in several currencies with live rates,Billfront T-975,Small business,lost,Price,Billfront T-976,Freelancer,won,, T-977,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-978,Freelancer,lost,Stayed on spreadsheets / Word templates,No decision T-979,Freelancer,lost,Stayed on spreadsheets / Word templates,No decision T-980,Freelancer,won,, T-981,Small business,won,, T-982,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Needs invoicing in several currencies with live rates,Billfront T-983,Small business,won,, T-984,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-985,Freelancer,won,, T-986,Freelancer,won,, T-987,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-988,Small business,won,, T-989,Freelancer,won,, T-990,Freelancer,won,, T-991,Freelancer,won,, T-992,Agency (multi-currency),won,, T-993,Freelancer,won,, T-994,Freelancer,won,, T-995,Small business,won,, T-996,Small business,won,, T-997,Small business,won,, T-998,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-999,Freelancer,lost,Stayed on spreadsheets / Word templates,No decision T-1000,Agency (multi-currency),won,, T-1001,Small business,lost,Price,Billfront T-1002,Small business,won,, T-1003,Freelancer,won,, T-1004,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-1005,Freelancer,won,, T-1006,Small business,won,, T-1007,Freelancer,won,, T-1008,Small business,won,, T-1009,Freelancer,lost,Price,Billfront T-1010,Small business,won,, T-1011,Freelancer,won,, T-1012,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Needs invoicing in several currencies with live rates,Billfront T-1013,Freelancer,won,, T-1014,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Needs invoicing in several currencies with live rates,Billfront T-1015,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Needs invoicing in several currencies with live rates,Billfront T-1016,Freelancer,won,, T-1017,Freelancer,won,, T-1018,Freelancer,won,, T-1019,Small business,lost,Didn't get round to switching,No decision T-1020,Freelancer,won,, T-1021,Small business,won,, T-1022,Agency (multi-currency),won,, T-1023,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Needs invoicing in several currencies with live rates,Billfront T-1024,Agency (multi-currency),lost,Needs invoicing in several currencies with live rates,Billfront T-1025,Freelancer,won,, T-1026,Freelancer,won,, T-1027,Freelancer,won,, T-1028,Small business,won,, T-1029,Freelancer,won,,
customers_by_segment.md7 lines · Download
# Tallybook customers and revenue (September)

| Segment | Paying customers | Average revenue per month |
|---|---|---|
| Freelancer | 5,800 | $11 |
| Small business | 3,100 | $24 |
| Agency (multi-currency) | 240 | $46 |
billfront_public_info.md6 lines · Download
# Billfront (public pages, September)

- Pricing: $12/month Starter, $29/month Pro (multi-currency, live FX rates), $59/month Team.
- Homepage: "Invoicing for global teams". Case studies: three agencies, one consultancy.
- Recent launches: multi-currency invoicing (March), client portal (June).
- Job posts: 4 engineers for "global payments", 2 for "agency workflows".
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Shows from the deals file that the biggest competitor is no decision: of 46 lost deals, 25 ended with the prospect staying on spreadsheets or never switching, 17 went to Billfront and 4 to Xero invoicing. Billfront's wins are concentrated in multi-currency agencies (11 of its 17), on a specific gap (invoicing in several currencies with live rates); elsewhere it won only 6 deals, mostly on price. Agencies are a small segment (240 customers at about $46 a month, about $11,000 MRR, against about $64,000 from freelancers and $74,000 from small businesses), and Billfront is heading further into them (global payments and agency workflow hiring). Recommends against matching everything: fix switching friction for small businesses who 'didn't get round to it' (imports, setup help, accountant tie-ins), make a deliberate call on multi-currency (build it if agencies matter strategically, or cede the segment), and keep the advantages Billfront can't easily copy. Gives a short comparison only where it matters.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Recommends matching Billfront feature for feature
Task

Mid-level · v1.2

The outputs

9 setups answered this brief.

Opus 5.5Claude98Usable with a quick editGPT-6 LunaAPI94Usable with a quick editGPT-6 AstraChatGPT94Usable with a quick editSonnet 5.5API94Usable with a quick editGPT-6.1 SolAPI94Usable with a quick editHaiku 5.5API92Usable with a quick editGemini 3.8 FlashAPI73Usable with a quick editGemini 4 ArgonAPI52Needs more workGemini 3.5 Flash-LiteGemini31Needs more work
Gemini 4 ArgonAPI

Needs more than a quick edit5 of 11 checks passed

The output contains multiple numerical errors (Billfront loss count, no-decision count, trial count) that would require re-checking the data and redoing parts of the analysis. It cannot be used with just a quick edit.

Output

To: Dan Whitlock, CEO From: PM, Growth Subject: Billfront Competitive Analysis & Q2 Growth Plan

Dan,

Before building a Q2 roadmap to match Billfront feature-for-feature, I pulled our win/loss data from the last two quarters (130 trials) alongside our revenue breakdown and Billfront’s recent activity.

The data shows that Billfront is not killing us in our core business. Matching their roadmap by Q2 would pull engineering away from our biggest revenue drivers to chase a small, non-core segment. Here is what is actually happening in our pipeline and what we should do instead.

---

1. Who We Really Lose To: Inertia, Not Billfront

Out of 130 trials over the last two quarters, we won 84 (65%) and lost 46. When we lose, it usually isn’t to a software competitor—it’s to status quo inertia:

  • No Decision / Inertia (26 losses — 57% of all losses):
  • 17 deals (15 Small Business, 2 Agency) simply "didn't get round to switching."
  • 9 deals (all Freelancers) "stayed on spreadsheets or Word templates."
  • Billfront (16 losses — 35% of losses, 12% of total trials):
  • 10 deals were Multi-Currency Agencies needing live FX rates.
  • 6 deals (3 Freelancer, 3 Small Business) cited price.
  • Xero Invoicing (4 losses — 9% of losses):
  • All 4 were Small Businesses whose "accountant uses something else."

The takeaway: We lose 63% more deals to friction during onboarding and switching than we do to Billfront.

---

2. Where Billfront Is a Real Threat—And Where It Isn't

Where they are a threat: Multi-Currency Agencies In the Agency segment, Billfront is beating us. Out of 19 Agency trials, we won 7 and lost 12—10 of which went directly to Billfront because they launched multi-currency invoicing with live FX rates in March.

However, we need to put this segment in perspective against our current monthly recurring revenue ($149.2k total MRR): * Freelancers: 5,800 customers @ $11 ARPU = $63,800/mo (43% of MRR) * Small Businesses: 3,100 customers @ $24 ARPU = $74,400/mo (50% of MRR) * Agencies (multi-currency): 240 customers @ $46 ARPU = $11,040/mo (7% of MRR)

Where they are NOT a threat: Our Core (93% of our revenue) Across Freelancers and Small Businesses (111 combined trials), we lost only 6 deals to Billfront—all on "price," not missing features.

Notably, our plans ($9–$39/mo) are actually cheaper at the entry and top tiers than Billfront’s ($12 Starter, $29 Pro, $59 Team). Losing 6 core deals on "price" indicates a tier-packaging friction—specifically, small businesses or freelancers hitting a paywall forcing them onto our $39 plan when Billfront’s $29 Pro tier covers their needs—not a product gap.

---

3. Where Billfront Is Heading

Billfront is pivoting upmarket to become a workflow and cross-border payments platform for agencies and consultancies: * Positioning: Their homepage now leads with "Invoicing for global teams," backed exclusively by agency and consultancy case studies. * Recent Launches: Multi-currency invoicing (March) and a client portal (June). * Hiring: They are recruiting 4 engineers for "global payments" and 2 for "agency workflows." * Pricing: Their new $59/month Team tier reflects an upmarket push.

If we try to match everything they have by Q2 (client portals, agency workflows, global payments infrastructure), we will spend the next two quarters building complex software for 7% of our customer base while neglecting the 93% who just want fast, simple invoicing.

---

4. What We Should Do Instead by Q2

Rather than a feature-for-feature clone of Billfront, I recommend a focused three-part plan for Q2:

#### A. Attack Our #1 Competitor: Switching Friction (High Priority) Winning back the 26 trials lost to "No Decision" is our highest-leverage growth opportunity. * For Small Businesses (15 losses to "didn't get round to switching"): Build a 1-click import tool for existing client lists and past invoices (CSV/PDF scraper) and offer concierge migration on annual plans so switching takes 5 minutes, not a weekend. * For Freelancers (9 losses to spreadsheets/Word): Launch an instant "Template-to-Invoice" onboarding flow where users generate and send their first live invoice in under 60 seconds before even setting up full account settings. * For Accountant Objections (4 losses to Xero): Build or highlight a clean, 1-click "Export for Xero/QuickBooks" summary so SMBs can use Tallybook for daily invoicing without frustrating their accountants at tax time.

#### B. Audit Our Pricing Tiers to Stop the "Price" Losses (Quick Win) We shouldn't lose on price to a more expensive competitor. Let’s audit the 6 Freelancer/SMB deals lost to Billfront on price to see which specific feature pushed them into our $39 tier vs. Billfront’s $29 tier, and adjust our mid-tier packaging accordingly.

#### C. Make a Deliberate Call on Lightweight FX (Targeted) We do not need Billfront’s client portals or agency workflow tools. However, if we want to protect our $46 ARPU Agency segment and stop the bleeding on those 10 lost deals, we can integrate a lightweight third-party FX API (e.g., Open Exchange Rates) to populate live currency rates on invoices. * The rule: Only build lightweight live FX rates if it takes less than 2–3 weeks of engineering time. Do not follow Billfront into cross-border payment routing or agency project portals.

Let me know if you'd like to review the tier-packaging data together this week so we can lock the Q2 growth roadmap.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • Billfront accounted for 16 losses (35% of losses, 12% of total trials).
  • 10 of those Billfront losses were Multi-Currency Agencies needing live FX rates.
  • 17 lost deals (15 Small Business, 2 Agency) were due to 'didn't get round to switching'.
  • Total No Decision / Inertia losses are 26 (57% of all losses).
  • There were 111 combined trials (Freelancer + Small Business) out of 130.
  • We lose 63% more deals to friction during onboarding and switching than we do to Billfront.

Grades and run details

Decision model 68 · LLM judge 42
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly18%
  • passAddresses the actual decision45%
  • passRespects explicit constraints46%
  • partialIdentifies material uncertainty25%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims49%
  • passProduces the required deliverable73%
  • passFinds the real competitor100%
  • passPins down where Billfront wins98%
  • passCompetes with what customers really choose100%
  • failGets the base of every number right18%
  • partialSeparates what a rival can copy48%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
24 s
Submitted
13 Oct 2026
GPT-6 AstraChatGPT

Usable with a quick edit10 of 11 checks passed

The analysis is evidence-based and actionable; a PM could add a sentence on durable advantages without redoing any reasoning or re-checking evidence.

Output

To: Dan Whitlock Subject: Q2 competitive plan—beat the reasons we lose, not Billfront’s feature list

Dan—

Billfront is a real threat in multi-currency agencies, but the deal data does not support “Billfront is killing us” across our business. I recommend a Q2 plan focused on switching friction in our core market, with a gated investment in multi-currency—not blanket feature parity.

1. Who we actually lose to

Across 130 trials with recorded outcomes over the last two quarters, we won 84 and lost 46.

DestinationLost dealsShare of lossesRecorded reason
------:---:---
No decision2554%16 never switched; 9 stayed with spreadsheets/Word
Billfront1737%11 multi-currency/live FX; 6 price
Xero invoicing49%Accountant uses another system

Our largest competitor is inertia. More deals stall or retain manual workflows than go to Billfront.

The segment split matters:

  • Freelancers and small businesses: 110 opportunities, 77 wins, and only six losses to Billfront—all attributed to price.
  • Multi-currency agencies: 20 opportunities, seven wins, 11 losses to Billfront, and two no-decisions. Billfront captures 55% of these opportunities and 85% of their losses.

These are counts from recorded trial outcomes—not market share, churn, or revenue-weighted losses. We lack deal values and quarter-by-quarter breakdowns, so cannot conclude that competitive losses are accelerating.

2. Where Billfront threatens us—and where it doesn’t

Our installed base remains overwhelmingly freelancers and small businesses: 97% of paying customers and 93% of monthly revenue, using September customer counts and ARPU. Agencies contribute approximately $11,040 of $149,240 monthly revenue.

Billfront is therefore a concentrated segment threat, not yet a demonstrated broad-based threat to our core. However, agencies represent 15% of this opportunity sample versus 3% of current customers. Ignoring them could constrain an emerging growth segment.

The defensible comparison from the supplied evidence is:

DimensionBillfrontTallybook / implication
Subscription pricing$12 Starter; $29 Pro; $59 Team$9–$39 plans. Billfront is not universally cheaper; investigate the actual packages compared in six price losses.
Multi-currency and live FXIncluded in Pro; multi-currency launched in MarchEleven losses establish an unmet customer requirement. This is the strongest case for targeted parity.
Client portalLaunched in JuneTallybook capability is unspecified. No recorded loss cites it; validate demand before prioritizing.
Team/agency capabilitiesTeam tier; agency-focused hiringDetailed functionality is unknown. Neither the plan name nor hiring proves specific feature advantages.
Positioning“Invoicing for global teams”; three agency and one consultancy case studiesTallybook serves freelancers and small businesses. Their positioning overlaps most strongly with our agency segment.

A complete feature-by-feature audit requires product access and our own capability inventory. We should do a bounded audit, but not turn every discovered difference into a roadmap commitment.

3. Where Billfront is heading

The evidence points toward cross-border payments and agency workflows: multi-currency is already shipped, four engineering roles target global payments, and two target agency workflows. The portal could support deeper agency-client collaboration.

That suggests a specialist competitor becoming stronger in international service businesses—not necessarily a competitor optimizing for solo freelancers. Hiring indicates direction, not a confirmed launch schedule. Matching today’s list could leave us following their next list while neglecting our larger conversion problem.

4. What we should do by Q2

First: make switching easier for our core customers. Interview recent no-decision prospects, then test guided setup, spreadsheet/client imports, reusable invoice templates, and assisted migration where the workflow audit shows gaps. Sell the outcome—getting the first invoice sent and paid with less effort—not feature volume. Measure trial-to-paid conversion, time to first invoice, first payment, and no-decision losses against a baseline or control.

Second: gate a focused multi-currency investment. Validate requirements with lost agencies and our seven agency wins: supported currencies, live-rate handling, settlement needs, and willingness to pay. Estimate build, provider, compliance, and support costs. Commit to a scoped Q2 release only if expected incremental contribution and retention justify it versus core activation work. Do not bundle a portal or full Team suite into that decision.

Third: diagnose price before cutting it. Review the six price losses for required features, chosen Billfront tier, discounts, and perceived value. Test clearer packaging or targeted offers rather than an across-the-board reduction. Reconcile agency ARPU of $46 with our stated $39 plan ceiling before modeling returns.

Fourth: reduce accountant-driven exclusions. Investigate the four Xero losses and test whether accountant-friendly exports or interoperability can preserve Tallybook as the invoicing layer.

Decision requested: replace “match everything by Q2” with a measured conversion program and a gated multi-currency bet. Keep a monthly competitor review, but fund work according to customer demand and incremental economics—not checklist completeness.

Grades and run details

Decision model 95 · LLM judge 92
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly59%
  • passAddresses the actual decision52%
  • passRespects explicit constraints52%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty98%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims73%
  • passProduces the required deliverable46%
  • passFinds the real competitor100%
  • passPins down where Billfront wins100%
  • passCompetes with what customers really choose100%
  • passGets the base of every number right43%
  • partialSeparates what a rival can copy56%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
44 s
Submitted
5 Oct 2026
GPT-6.1 SolAPI

Usable with a quick edit10 of 11 checks passed

The analysis is evidence-based, actionable, and requires no re-checking of facts or reasoning; a PM could use it with light edits.

Output

Competitive analysis: Billfront is a targeted threat—not our biggest source of losses

To: Dan Whitlock From: Growth PM

Recommendation: Do not commit to matching every Billfront feature by Q2. Commit to reducing switching friction in our core market, testing price objections, and validating a focused multi-currency response. Maintain a competitive feature inventory, but let customer evidence—not competitor launches—drive delivery.

1. Who we actually lose to

Across the 130 trial opportunities in the last two quarters, we won 84 and lost 46:

Loss destinationDealsShare of lossesRecorded reason
------:---:---
No decision2554%16 never switched; 9 stayed with spreadsheets/Word
Billfront1737%11 needed multi-currency/live rates; 6 cited price
Xero invoicing49%Accountant preference

Our largest competitor is inertia. More opportunities stayed with their existing process than chose Billfront. Feature parity does not directly address those losses.

Billfront’s wins are concentrated: 11 of its 17 wins came from multi-currency agencies. Among the 110 freelancer and small-business opportunities, only six went to Billfront—all citing price.

These are trial-opportunity outcomes, not evidence of customer churn or overall market share. We also lack deal values, so counts alone cannot establish the revenue impact.

2. Where Billfront is—and is not—a real threat

Real threat: international agencies. Of 20 agency opportunities, we won seven, lost 11 to Billfront over multi-currency/live rates, and lost two to no decision. That is a specific, repeated capability gap, not a vague brand problem.

Agencies are a small but valuable segment: 240 paying customers generate approximately $11,040 monthly revenue, or 7.4% of the total, at the highest segment average of $46 per month. Protecting this segment merits investigation; pursuing it aggressively requires a deliberate market choice.

Limited demonstrated threat: our core market. Freelancers and small businesses represent 97.4% of paying customers and 92.6% of monthly revenue. Their recorded Billfront losses concern price, not missing portals or team workflows.

That does not mean price is objectively lower: Tallybook starts at $9 versus Billfront’s $12. We need to understand required tiers, perceived value, discounts, and payment costs before changing prices.

Separate threat: accountant-led selection. Four small businesses chose Xero because their accountant used it. Matching Billfront does nothing to resolve that workflow preference.

3. Feature comparison: what the evidence supports

A full parity assessment is not possible from these files: we lack Tallybook’s feature inventory and detailed Billfront documentation.

AreaBillfront evidenceTallybook evidence / implication
InvoicingPublic positioning and launches confirm offeringCore Tallybook offering; workflow-level parity unverified
Payments“Global payments” hiringCore Tallybook offering; global capabilities unverified
Pricing$12 Starter; $29 Pro; $59 Team$9–$39 plans; six price losses require tier-level investigation
Multi-currency + live FXIncluded in $29 Pro; launched MarchEleven losses establish an unmet requirement; exact existing coverage needs audit
Client portalLaunched JuneAvailability unknown; no recorded loss cites it
Team/agency workflowsTeam plan; agency-workflow hiringDetailed features unknown; no evidenced parity requirement yet

We should complete this inventory through product testing and documentation—not turn unknowns into assumed deficiencies.

4. Where Billfront appears to be heading

“Invoicing for global teams,” three agency case studies, one consultancy case study, and hiring for global payments and agency workflows point toward cross-border agency operations, rather than primarily low-cost freelancer invoicing.

The multi-currency launch and portal fit that direction. Hiring suggests possible investment in global payment capabilities and deeper agency workflows, but does not confirm particular upcoming features.

Following that trajectory wholesale would move us toward a different customer and potentially greater operational complexity.

5. What we should deliver by Q2

First: establish the facts. Product and Growth should audit both products, interview the 17 Billfront losses and a sample of no-decision opportunities, and identify the exact currency, payment, migration, and price requirements. Validate engineering scope before promising parity.

Prioritize core conversion. Test guided setup, invoice/customer import, template migration, and assisted switching. Measure first-invoice activation, time to first invoice, and trial-to-paid conversion against a control—not just onboarding completion.

Address price without a blanket cut. Test clearer tier/value messaging and targeted offers for price-sensitive prospects. Judge success on paid conversion, retained revenue, and margin.

Gate a focused FX investment. Scope multi-currency invoicing with live rates—not the entire global-payments stack. Proceed only if recoverable agency revenue, customer demand, and delivery cost justify it. Use agency design partners and explicit pilot adoption and retention criteria.

Investigate accountant compatibility. Determine whether exports, accountant access, or integrations would resolve the Xero losses before building.

Q2 commitment: validated competitive coverage, measured conversion experiments, and an evidence-based FX build decision—not indiscriminate feature parity.

Grades and run details

Decision model 95 · LLM judge 92
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly61%
  • passAddresses the actual decision69%
  • passRespects explicit constraints49%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty100%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims73%
  • passProduces the required deliverable48%
  • passFinds the real competitor100%
  • passPins down where Billfront wins100%
  • passCompetes with what customers really choose100%
  • passGets the base of every number right61%
  • partialSeparates what a rival can copy67%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
48 s
Submitted
5 Oct 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 7

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyWrongRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Several key numbers are taken incorrectly from the source data (Billfront losses 16 instead of 17, inertia losses 26 instead of 25, agency Billfront losses 10 instead of 11, trial counts off).

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

All facts and figures are correctly taken from the supplied data, with no invented information about the current situation.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

All factual claims are directly from the supplied files or derived by correct arithmetic.

Identifies material uncertaintyWrongRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Does not name unknowns that could change the overall decision (e.g., if agency churn becomes critical), and only mentions narrow pricing and build-time uncertainties.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Names missing data (deal values, quarter breakdowns) and conditions for the multi-currency investment, and says how to resolve them through interviews, tests, and validation.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Names missing data (deal values, feature inventories, exact requirements) and says how to resolve them (audits, interviews, validation).

Avoids unsupported claimsWrongRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Presents inaccurate counts as facts (e.g., 16 Billfront losses, 17 'didn't switch' losses) and states an interpretation ('Billfront is pivoting upmarket') without clear hedging.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Interpretations and forecasts are labelled as suggestions or conclusions from data, not presented as established fact.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Forecasts and interpretations are labelled as such (e.g., 'appears to be heading', 'suggests possible investment').

Finds the real competitorMixedRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Calls inertia the biggest competitor but uses wrong counts (26 instead of 25) that undermine the accuracy of the conclusion.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Counts 25 no-decision losses versus 17 to Billfront and names inertia as the largest competitor.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Counts losses by destination, shows no decision as the largest (25 deals, 54%), and names inertia as the biggest competitor.

Pins down where Billfront winsMixedRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Identifies concentration in multi-currency agencies but states 10 agency losses to Billfront when the data shows 11, so the count is incorrect.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Shows Billfront's wins are concentrated in multi-currency agencies (11 of 17) and sizes the segment's revenue at $11k of $149k.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Shows Billfront wins concentrated in multi-currency agencies (11 of 17) and sizes the segment's revenue ($11,040/month, 7.4% of total).

Gets the base of every number rightWrongRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Multiple derived figures are off (Billfront 16/17, inertia 26/25, agency Billfront 10/11, trial totals 111/110) showing arithmetic errors.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

All percentages are correctly computed with clear denominators stated or implied.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

All percentages and counts check out against the deals file and customer data, with bases stated where needed.

Separates what a rival can copyRightWrongWrong
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Focuses the response on reducing switching friction, a durable advantage that is hard for a well-funded competitor to copy, while noting Billfront’s feature path.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Does not explicitly separate which advantages are copyable by a well-funded competitor and which are durable, nor anchor the response in the durable ones.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Does not explicitly separate copyable advantages (features, price) from durable ones (switching costs, relationships) or anchor the response in the latter.

All got right 4

Addresses the actual decisionRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Commits early to not matching Billfront feature-for-feature and instead recommends a three-part plan focusing on switching friction, with a conditional on lightweight FX.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Commits clearly to not matching everything, instead recommending a switching-friction program and a gated multi-currency investment, with conditions that would change the call.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Commits early to not matching everything, gives a clear alternative, and states conditions (recoverable revenue, demand, cost) that would change the call.

Respects explicit constraintsRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Stays under 900 words, is a competitive analysis directed to the CEO, and does not propose a feature-by-feature matching plan.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

The output is a competitive analysis under 900 words, addressed to the CEO, and proposes what to do instead of matching, respecting the brief's request.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Output is a competitive analysis under 900 words, does not provide a full feature-by-feature matching plan, and is addressed to Dan.

Produces the required deliverableRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Is a memo to the CEO, within the word limit, and contains all requested sections; with corrected numbers it would be usable.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

The memo is complete, within the word limit, and directly usable by the CEO with actionable recommendations.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Delivers a complete, actionable competitive analysis memo for the CEO within the word limit.

Competes with what customers really chooseRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Treats spreadsheets and 'did not switch' as a competitor, and draws a direction-of-travel insight from Billfront's hiring and positioning.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Treats the status quo (spreadsheets, no decision) as a competitor and draws an implication from Billfront's hiring direction.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Treats spreadsheets/doing nothing as a competitor and gives a direction-of-travel insight (Billfront moving toward cross-border agency ops).

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6.1 SolAPI93.295.82None
2Opus 5.5Claude88.6100.02None
3GPT-6 AstraChatGPT86.495.82None
4GPT-6 LunaAPI93.283.32None
5Sonnet 5.5API86.483.32None
6Haiku 5.5API81.879.22None
7Gemini 3.8 FlashAPI68.254.22None
8Gemini 4 ArgonAPI65.954.22None
9Gemini 3.5 Flash-LiteGemini54.525.02None

What you get for the cost

No setup scores within 5 points of the leader at half its cost or less here, so the leader is also the best value.

Task score against relative cost for each setup. The table below has the same figures.304050607080901001×3×10×30×100×Cost per output, relative to the cheapest setup (log scale) →↑ Task scoreGPT-6.1 Sol · API: task score 95, 14× the cheapestOpus 5.5 · Claude: task score 95, 75× the cheapestGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT: task score 92, 87× the cheapestGPT-6 Luna · API: task score 86, the cheapestSonnet 5.5 · API: task score 83, 44× the cheapestHaiku 5.5 · API: task score 79, 3.0× the cheapestGemini 3.8 Flash · API: task score 60, 12× the cheapestGemini 4 Argon · API: task score 57, 23× the cheapestGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini: task score 38, 2.9× the cheapestGPT-6.1 Sol · APIOpus 5.5 · ClaudeGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPTGPT-6 Luna · APISonnet 5.5 · APIHaiku 5.5 · APIGemini 3.8 Flash · APIGemini 4 Argon · APIGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini
Nobody beats these on both score and cost

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

The PM job

Deciding how to respond to competitors.

Why it matters

Feature grids hide the real competition, which is often the customer's current workaround, and the response that feels urgent is usually to copy everything.

What good looks like

  • Includes the status quo and non-obvious alternatives
  • Finds where losses really go, by segment
  • Separates advantages a rival can copy from ones it can't
  • Reads where competitors are heading

Deliberately not measured

  • Market sizing
Capability tested

Competitive insight

The failure we’re looking for

A feature checklist and a plan to match everything

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review