Analyse experiment results

Team—

This is inconclusive, not a failure. Activation was 1.7 percentage points higher with the shorter checklist, but the 95% CI (−1.4 to +4.8 points) includes no effect and possible harm—as well as a benefit of at least 3 points. The test wasn’t precise enough to settle the question.

I recommend running the test for another four weeks. That should let us assess effects around 2 points, which this change may plausibly deliver. Before extending, agree on what activation gain would justify rollout and what activation decline would stop it. Track onboarding-confusion tickets too, but compare rates per user: the raw drop from 44 to 29 is encouraging, not conclusive.

After the extension, decide using both activation and confusion—not a “significant/not significant” label alone.

Team,

This test is inconclusive, not a failure. Activation increased from 31.2% to 32.9%, but the confidence interval spans a 1.4 percentage-point decline to a 4.8-point improvement. We haven’t established a benefit or ruled out meaningful harm.

The pre-registered 3pp minimum detectable effect describes what we designed the test to detect reliably. It isn’t a threshold below which improvements have no value. A smaller lift could still be worthwhile.

Confusion tickets fell from 44 to 29, which is encouraging supporting evidence. Without comparable rates by experiment arm, consistent tagging and exposure counts, we can’t attribute that reduction to the shorter checklist.

My recommendation is a staged rollout, provided basic checks reveal no downstream harm. With only a day of engineering needed, I wouldn’t automatically spend another four weeks pursuing statistical significance. The remaining decision is whether the likely benefit justifies the remaining cost and risk.

Before rollout, confirm every included user has had the full seven-day activation window and check experiment allocation, tracking and any available downstream engagement measures. Compare confusion-ticket rates between arms.

Then increase exposure gradually, retaining a randomised holdout and agreeing monitoring dates and a rollback threshold upfront. This is a practical decision under uncertainty, not a declaration that B won.

Extend the experiment instead if a possible 1.4pp activation loss is commercially unacceptable¹ or if establishing a roughly 2pp improvement would change our decision. If we extend, pre-specify the analysis and stopping rule; four more weeks offers greater precision, not a guaranteed answer.

To: Onboarding team Re: Shorter checklist test

Conclusion: This wasn't a failure. It was inconclusive, and the result doesn't support "no effect."

• The point estimate was +1.7pp (32.9% vs. 31.2%).
• The 95% CI runs from −1.4pp to +4.8pp. Effects from slightly negative to clearly useful are all consistent with the data.
• The test was powered for a 3pp lift. A real 1–2pp improvement, which would still be worth having, would usually not reach significance at this sample size.
• Support tickets for "onboarding confusion" fell from 44 to 29. This wasn't a pre-registered metric, and counts this small are noisy, but it points the same way.

Recommendation: Don't treat this as a loss, and don't run the test indefinitely.

1. Ship the five-step checklist to everyone, with a 10% holdout on the old flow. Shipping costs about one day of engineering, the change is easy to reverse, and the evidence leans positive. The holdout keeps measuring the real effect at no extra build cost.
2. Decide the extension question on decision value, not on the test result. Another four weeks would detect roughly 2pp. That is worth doing only if a 2pp lift would change what we do next. If it wouldn't, the holdout gives us enough information.
3. If we extend, make it a new pre-registered analysis. Set the new target effect and sample size now, and don't keep peeking at the current data until it crosses significance. Changing the goalposts after an inconclusive result is how teams end up with false positives.

Bottom line: The checklist is probably neutral to helpful, and it is cheap to keep. Ship it with a holdout, track activation and tickets, and revisit in four weeks.