Tasks / Operate

Make the launch call

Can the model make a clear go / no-go call from mixed launch evidence, checked against the criteria agreed up front?

Measures the modelTask v1.2 · 2 casesDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 14 graded outputs by 7 models. 64% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Finds the Scotland breach100% pass
    Clearly identifies Scotland's refund breach (66% above control, 143% after supplier change) and acceptance dip below 80%, correctly holds Scotland.
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · Go/no-go for AI substitutions, from the rollout data
  2. Produces the required deliverable98% pass
    The recommendation is in the requested form, for the meeting, within the length, and includes necessary steps a PM could act on.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Go/no-go for AI-drafted support replies
  3. Addresses the actual decision95% pass
    The output gives a clear, unambiguous 'no-go' call early, and states what would change it (fixes and retest).
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Go/no-go for AI-drafted support replies

Where it slips

  1. Limits the downside of being wrong32% pass
    No specific post-launch monitoring signal or threshold is named; only generic 'monitoring' and a kill switch are mentioned.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Go/no-go for AI-drafted support replies
  2. Catches the duplicate rows50% pass
    Finds and removes the duplicate rows but never states whether they change the results.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Go/no-go for AI substitutions, from the rollout data
  3. Uses the supplied evidence correctly54% pass
    The output states that pilot agents were hands-on, engaged and motivated, which is not supported by the supplied context (only that 7/8 wanted to keep it).
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · Go/no-go for AI-drafted support replies

Case viewer

Read the brief, then put up to three outputs side by side, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

Tomorrow's launch meeting decides whether AI-drafted support replies go live to all 42 support agents on Monday. You're the PM. Using the material below, write your launch recommendation for the meeting: go, no-go, or go with conditions, and why. Keep it under 400 words.

What the model was given6 items: Scenario, Launch criteria agreed in the PRD, Pilot (8 agents, 3 weeks, 2,940 tickets), Eval set (500 tickets), Open bugs, Support operations
ScenarioLedgerly is accounting software for small businesses. The feature drafts a first reply to each support ticket; an agent reviews and edits every draft before it is sent.
Launch criteria agreed in the PRD1. At least 60% of drafts accepted as-is or with minor edits. 2. Wrong or harmful drafts (wrong account data, wrong policy, invented features) at most 1% on the 500-ticket eval set. 3. No draft may commit to a refund. 4. Median time to first response down at least 30% in the pilot.
Pilot (8 agents, 3 weeks, 2,940 tickets)Accepted as-is or with minor edits: 64%. Median time to first response: 7.1 hours before, 4.2 hours during (−41%). Seven of the eight agents want to keep it.
Eval set (500 tickets)Wrong or harmful drafts: 9 of 500 (1.8%). Six of the nine are billing tickets quoting the old prices, which changed on 1 September; the model's reference data stops in August. Two drafts said “we'll refund this charge”; the pilot agents caught and removed both.
Open bugsReplies to Welsh-language tickets come back in English (about 0.3% of tickets). Tables in drafts are badly formatted.
Support operationsTraining for all 42 agents is booked for Friday. Billing is one of four queues and handles 38% of tickets.
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Not a full go: criterion 2 fails (1.8% against 1%) and criterion 3 is breached even though agents caught it. Strong answer: go with conditions, launching to the non-billing queues while billing waits for updated pricing data and a hard block on refund language, then re-running the eval to confirm it meets the bar; names exactly what would turn it into a full go.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Recommends a full launch while the error rate misses the agreed 1% bar
  • Treats the refund commitments as acceptable
Case

Staff-level · v1.9 · synthetic · AI product, launch

The outputs

7 setups answered this brief. Pick up to three to read side by side.

Needs more than a quick edit3 of 10 checks passed

A PM would need to re-check the non-billing error rate, refund-draft queue attribution, and monitoring/rollback plan before using it. The core recommendation is useful but not evidence-safe as written.

Output

Recommendation: Go with Conditions

While the pilot demonstrated strong operational impact—reducing median first-response time by 41% (beating our 30% target) with a 64% acceptance rate—we failed two mandatory launch criteria:

  1. Accuracy (Criterion 2): Harmful/wrong drafts hit 1.8% (9/500) versus the $\le$1.0% threshold.
  2. Refund commitments (Criterion 3): Two drafts explicitly promised refunds, violating our zero-tolerance policy.

However, these failures are isolated and addressable. Six of the nine errors were caused by August reference data lacking the September 1 price changes, and both refund commitments originated in billing workflows.

Rather than cancelling Friday’s 42-agent training or delaying the productivity benefits across the entire organization, we should launch on Monday under the following three conditions:

Launch Conditions

1. Disable AI drafting on the Billing queue for Monday: Billing represents 38% of volume and contains almost all our critical failure points (pricing errors and refund risks). We will launch exclusively to the remaining three queues (62% of ticket volume), where accuracy meets our threshold. 2. Implement deterministic refund guardrails by Friday: Deploy a hard system-prompt restriction and a post-generation regex/keyword filter that blocks or drops drafts containing refund commitments before reaching the agent. 3. Update agent training on Friday: Keep Friday’s training on schedule. Explicitly train agents on: - The pilot's phased rollout (Billing queue excluded initially). - Known minor bugs (Welsh-language tickets defaulting to English; manual table reformatting required). - Strict agent accountability as the final human reviewer for every sent message.

Path to Full Billing Rollout

Engineering will ingest the post-September 1 pricing documentation and run a targeted 200-ticket eval on billing drafts next week. Once billing tickets achieve $<1\%$ error and 0 refund promises, we will enable the feature for the billing queue.

This approach protects Ledgerly’s financial liability and customer trust while immediately capturing significant speed improvements for over 60% of our support volume.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • Both refund commitments originated in billing workflows.
  • Billing contains almost all critical failure points, including pricing errors and refund risks.
  • The remaining three queues meet the accuracy threshold.

Grades and run details

Decision model 90 · LLM judge 3 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly45%
  • passAddresses the actual decision100%
  • passRespects explicit constraints54%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty96%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims27%
  • passProduces the required deliverable96%
  • passChecks every agreed criterion24%
  • passMakes a clear call100%
  • partialLimits the downside of being wrong38%
  • passGets the base of every number right86%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
13 s
Submitted
1 Oct 2026

Needs more than a quick edit3 of 10 checks passed

A PM would need to add a plan to re-run the eval set after fixes and explicit post-launch monitoring triggers; the unsupported 'training cutoff' claim also needs correction.

Output

Launch Recommendation: Go with Conditions

As the Product Manager, my recommendation for Monday’s rollout to all 42 agents is Go with Conditions.

While the pilot successfully proved the core value proposition, the evaluation set revealed critical safety gaps that we must mitigate before scaling.3

---

Why We Are Ready (The "Go" Factors)

  • Efficiency Gains Exceeded Target: Median time to first response dropped by 41% (from 7.1 to 4.2 hours), surpassing our 30% goal.
  • High Team Adoption: 7 out of 8 pilot agents want to keep using the feature.
  • Strong Overall Quality: 64% of drafts were accepted as-is or with minor edits, meeting our 60% threshold.

---

Critical Conditions for Monday's Launch

To protect our customers and brand, the following four conditions must be met prior to Monday:

1. Fix the Billing Knowledge Gap (Mandatory): * The Issue: 6 out of the 9 harmful drafts on the eval set quoted old prices because the model's training data cutoff is August4, and prices changed September 1st. * Action: Update the model's reference document with current pricing immediately. 2. Implement Guardrails for Refunds: * The Issue: Two drafts promised refunds, violating our zero-tolerance policy (though agents successfully caught both). * Action: Deploy a strict system prompt constraint blocking drafts from mentioning or committing to refunds.2 3. Address Known Minor Bugs: * The Issue: Welsh-language tickets generate English replies, and data tables are poorly formatted. * Action: Temporarily route Welsh tickets around the AI tool until fixed, and issue a known-issues note regarding table formatting during Friday's agent training. 4. Targeted Billing Training: * Because billing accounts for 38% of our ticket volume, dedicate a specific section of Friday's all-hands training to remind agents to double-check pricing figures in billing drafts.

---

By locking in these quick fixes before Friday's training session, we capture a 41% speed gain while keeping accuracy well within safe operational limits.1

What a PM had to fix

  1. 1Hypothesis stated as factReframe it as a hypothesisSubstantial rework

    Source: Eval set (500 tickets)Wrong or harmful drafts: 9 of 500 (1.8%).

    What we’d changeRequire a re-run of the 500-ticket eval after the fixes, and launch only if it passes. Nothing yet shows accuracy is within the limit.

  2. 2Constraint missedRestore the constraintTargeted repair

    Source: Launch criteria agreed in the PRDNo draft may commit to a refund.

    What we’d changeA prompt instruction isn't a guarantee. Test the control, and add a check that stops refund commitments reaching agents' drafts.

  3. 3Constraint missedRestore the constraintTargeted repair

    Source: Launch criteria agreed in the PRDWrong or harmful drafts (wrong account data, wrong policy, invented features) at most 1% on the 500-ticket eval set. 3. No draft may commit to a refund.

    What we’d changeCheck each agreed criterion and say plainly that two fail: wrong or harmful drafts at 1.8% against 1%, and two refund commitments against none.

  4. 4Invented evidenceVerify or remove the claimQuick edit

    Source: Eval set (500 tickets)the model's reference data stops in August

    What we’d changeThe brief says the model's reference data stops in August, not its training data. That's what makes a pricing refresh a quick fix.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • The model's training data cutoff is August

Grades and run details

Decision model 55 · LLM judge 3 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly55%
  • partialAddresses the actual decision45%
  • partialRespects explicit constraints13%
  • partialIdentifies material uncertainty73%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims27%
  • partialProduces the required deliverable46%
  • partialChecks every agreed criterion69%
  • partialMakes a clear call76%
  • failLimits the downside of being wrong96%
  • passGets the base of every number right76%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
6 s
Submitted
25 Sept 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 6

Addresses the actual decisionRightWrong
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It clearly recommends go with conditions for Monday and states the billing re-evaluation result that would enable full rollout.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output does not state what result or condition would change the 'Go with Conditions' call (e.g., failing to meet the conditions would make it a no-go).

Respects explicit constraintsMixedRight
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The proposed non-billing launch is not shown to enforce the 1% wrong/harmful criterion, and the refund guardrail proposal is not evidenced as sufficient.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output stays under 400 words and respects the requested form of a launch recommendation for the meeting.

Identifies material uncertaintyMixedWrong
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It does not name the key unknowns that could change the call, such as the non-billing error rate, whether refund drafts were billing-related, or whether guardrails actually prevent refund commitments.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

It does not name specific unknowns that could change the decision or say how they would be resolved, such as whether the pricing fix alone will bring error rate below 1%.

Checks every agreed criterionMixedWrong
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It checks criteria 2, 3, and 4, but does not explicitly test criterion 1 against the 60% acceptance bar.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

It does not explicitly compare the 1.8% harmful rate against the 1% bar, leaving the second launch criterion unchecked.

Makes a clear callRightWrong
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It makes a clear go-with-conditions call and states the billing rollout condition.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The call is clear but does not state what would change it, e.g., that failing to meet the conditions would lead to a no-go.

Gets the base of every number rightMixedRight
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It uses the 62% volume base correctly but treats non-billing accuracy as meeting the threshold without a verified denominator or error count.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The 41% time reduction uses the correct base (7.1 hours to 4.2 hours), and other percentages match the supplied data.

All got wrong 2

Avoids unsupported claimsWrongWrong
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It presents unsupported causal and coverage claims as fact, including that refund commitments originated in billing workflows and that non-billing accuracy meets the threshold.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output presents the 'training data cutoff' as a fact when the source only says reference data stops in August, turning an interpretation into an unsupported claim.

Limits the downside of being wrongWrongWrong
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It does not specify post-launch monitoring, a pause or rollback threshold, or irreversible customer-communication risks.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

No post-launch signal, threshold to pause or roll back, or irreversible actions are identified.

All mixed 1

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyMixedMixed
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It invents or assumes that both refund drafts were billing-related, that non-billing queues meet the accuracy threshold, and that billing contains almost all critical failure points.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The claim about a 'training data cutoff' is not supported; the context only mentions reference data stopping in August, so an unsupported fact about the current system was introduced.

All got right 1

Produces the required deliverableRightRight
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It is a concise launch recommendation in the requested form and appears usable for the meeting with light edits.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The recommendation is under 400 words, addressed to the meeting, and usable with light edits, though it lacks a retest plan.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task, across all cases and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated: the graders match our PM on 87% of checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI87.388.32None
2GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT86.088.32None
3Sonnet 5.5withAPI85.488.32None
4Opus 5.5withClaude80.486.42None
5GPT-6 LunawithAPI82.177.62None
6Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI71.931.521 capped
7Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini50.642.22None

About the task

The PM job

Deciding whether a feature ships on the planned date, and on what conditions.

Why it matters

Launch meetings reward optimism. A good call checks each agreed criterion, weighs a real risk against a real gain, and says exactly what would change the answer. A weak one rubber-stamps the launch or blocks it on noise.

What good looks like

  • Checks each agreed criterion against the evidence
  • Makes one clear call, with conditions if needed
  • Separates risks that block launch from risks that can be managed
  • Says what would change the call
  • Says how to limit the damage if the call is wrong

Deliberately not measured

  • Rollout engineering detail
  • Project-plan formatting
Capability tested

Deciding against agreed launch criteria

The failure we’re looking for

Rubber-stamps a launch that misses an agreed bar, or blocks it on noise

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review

Variants

A launch memo from supplied evidence · Staff level: a regional call from an attached data workbook