Needs more than a quick edit6 of 13 checks passed
It fails to address the known duplicate data rows, doesn't specify monitoring triggers or rollback criteria, and makes a causal claim about Scotland without hedging, so a PM would need to add those before using it.
Output
Launch Recommendation: AI Auto-Substitutions
As the Staff PM for fulfilment, my recommendation for the 30 October launch meeting is a No-Go for nationwide rollout on 2 November.
While the Commercial and Analytics teams are looking at top-line aggregates, a region-by-region audit of the 28-day test data and incident logs reveals critical blockers. Specifically, Scotland fails acceptance and refund criteria due to a supplier mapping failure, Midlands and London recorded high-severity dietary/allergen mismatches, and South East also experienced a dietary mismatch.
We should hold all regions until the dietary hard filter is deployed on 4 November, and until Scotland’s catalogue re-map is fully completed and verified.
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Regional Evaluation Table (1–28 October Test Data)
| Region | Subs Acceptance ($\ge 80\%$) | Treatment Refunds vs Control ($\le +10\%$) | Dietary/Allergen Mismatches (Target: 0) | Basket Value Impact | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| London | $86.4\%$ (Pass) | Control: 1.77%<br>Treatment: 1.63% ($-7.9\%$) | 1 High Incident (Nut allergy violation on 23 Oct) | Control: £72.33<br>Treatment: £72.71 (+0.5%) | No-Go (Hold for 4 Nov filter) |
| South East | $87.0\%$ (Pass) | Control: 1.66%<br>Treatment: 1.69% ($+1.8\%$) | 1 High Incident (Vegan dairy violation on 19 Oct) | Control: £66.21<br>Treatment: £66.72 (+0.8%) | No-Go (Hold for 4 Nov filter) |
| Midlands | $84.5\%$ (Pass) | Control: 1.69%<br>Treatment: 1.68% ($-0.6\%$) | 1 High Incident (Gluten-free coeliac violation on 4 Oct) | Control: £55.22<br>Treatment: £55.51 (+0.5%) | No-Go (Hold for 4 Nov filter) |
| North West | $88.4\%$ (Pass) | Control: 1.73%<br>Treatment: 1.66% ($-4.0\%$) | 0 Incidents | Control: £57.34<br>Treatment: £57.65 (+0.5%) | Go with Conditions (Deploy 4 Nov) |
| Scotland | $77.0\%$ (Fail) | Control: 1.79%<br>Treatment: $3.90\%$ ($+117.9\%$) | 0 Incidents (High dairy wrong-size volume) | Control: £52.48<br>Treatment: £52.88 (+0.8%) | No-Go (Hold for catalogue re-map) |
Note: Refund request rates are calculated per 100 orders for precise comparison against the 10% relative ceiling.
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Region-by-Region Breakdown
- London, South East, Midlands: All three regions easily clear the 80% acceptance threshold and show neutral-to-positive average basket values (debunking the £4 basket drop concern). However, all three recorded high-severity dietary/allergen failures (gluten, vegan, and nut-allergy breaches). Because the safety hard filter is not deployed until 4 November, rolling out on 2 November exposes customers to unacceptable allergen risks during the peak Christmas slot-booking window.
- North West: Our strongest performer. It meets all four PRD criteria cleanly3: 88.4% acceptance1, treatment refund rates slightly below control, zero dietary incidents, and a stable basket value. It is ready to roll out immediately following the hard filter deployment.
- Scotland: A clear No-Go. Acceptance dropped to 77.0% (failing the 80% bar), and treatment refund requests spiked catastrophically by 117.9% over control (driven by the dairy supplier switch on 15 Oct where pack sizes were mismapped). Until the catalogue re-map is finished and stabilized, rolling out here will compound operational friction.
Action Plan
- Hold Rollout on 2 November.
- Deploy Dietary Hard Filter on 4 November as scheduled, and verify regression tests.
- Complete Scotland Catalogue Re-map and clear open wrong-size substitution incidents.
- Staged Launch: Roll out to North West, London, South East, and Midlands on Monday, 9 November (concurrent with the Christmas slot-booking window opening), pending a 7-day post-fix stability review.2 Scotland follows only after catalogue remediation.
What a PM had to fix
1Numbers wrongRedo the arithmeticStart again
What we’d changeRecompute every figure from daily_metrics.csv, removing the duplicated North West rows. Almost every number in the table is wrong.
2Contradiction missedSurface the contradictionSubstantial rework
What we’d changeResolve the contradiction: a 7-day review after the 4 November filter can't finish by 9 November, and North West is marked go in the table but held here. Answer the stakeholders' claims rather than dismissing them.
3Hypothesis stated as factReframe it as a hypothesisTargeted repair
What we’d changeZero recorded mismatches in North West isn't evidence of safety. It runs the same unfiltered model as the regions that had them.
Check by check
Got wrong · 5
- Uses the supplied evidence correctlyThe output calculates rates from the raw daily_metrics.csv without acknowledging or removing the duplicate North West treatment rows flagged in incidents.csv, so the claimed rates for North West (and potentially others if the duplication affects summaries) are not fully reliable.
- Identifies material uncertaintyDoes not explicitly name the unknowns that could change the call (e.g., what if the dietary filter slips past 9 November, or if Scotland’s refunds don’t recover after the catalogue fix) or state the thresholds that would reverse the decision.
- Avoids unsupported claimsStates as fact that Scotland’s refund spike was 'driven by the dairy supplier switch where pack sizes were mismapped' without labelling it as a hypothesis, even though the data only shows a correlation.
- Catches the duplicate rowsDoes not mention or handle the duplicate North West treatment rows on 8–10 October that the incident log flags, so the quality check is absent.
- Limits the downside of being wrongWhile it mentions a 7‑day post‑fix stability review, it does not specify a signal (e.g., refund rate threshold) or a rollback trigger, and does not flag irreversible actions.
Mixed · 2
- Explains the basket gapShows treatment basket values are equal or higher in every region and states the aggregated £4 drop concern is debunked, satisfying the Simpson’s paradox explanation.The two graders disagreed on this one.
- Gets the base of every number rightRates are computed as sums over the period (acceptance = total accepted / total offered, refund rate = total refunds / total orders), so denominators are consistent and the relative comparisons are valid.The two graders disagreed on this one.
Got right · 6
- Addresses the actual decisionCommits to a clear No‑Go for 2 November, then a conditional Go by region for 9 November after the filter deploys, and states Scotland’s hold conditions.
- Respects explicit constraintsProse is well under 900 words, addressed to the launch meeting, and includes a region‑by‑region table with the four criteria.
- Produces the required deliverableProvides a complete, table‑based recommendation with a region‑by‑region call, within the word limit, that the launch meeting could act on.
- Checks every criterion, region by regionThe table checks acceptance, refunds vs control, dietary incidents and basket value for each of the five regions, with figures drawn from the test data.
- Finds the Scotland breachIdentifies Scotland’s refund breach (+117.9%), links it to the post‑15 October supplier change, notes the acceptance drop to 77%, and holds Scotland.
- Makes a clear callGives a clear decision per region (No‑Go for Scotland, conditional Go for others from 9 Nov) with dates and the conditions required to proceed.
Grades and run details
Decision model 46 · LLM judge 8 of 14 checks
Decision model checks
- failUses the supplied evidence correctly32%
- passAddresses the actual decision35%
- passRespects explicit constraints9%
- partialIdentifies material uncertainty65%
- partialAvoids unsupported claims12%
- passProduces the required deliverable40%
- partialChecks every criterion, region by region63%
- passFinds the Scotland breach97%
- failExplains the basket gap58%
- failCatches the duplicate rows100%
- partialMakes a clear call80%
- failLimits the downside of being wrong43%
- failGets the base of every number right75%
Run
- Run
- #1
- Time to output
- 46 s
- Submitted
- 25 Sept 2026