Tasks / Product Craft

Make the launch call

Can the model make a clear go / no-go call from mixed launch evidence, checked against the criteria agreed up front?

Task type v1.2 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 16 graded outputs by 8 models. 69% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

Finds the Scotland breach100% pass
Finds Scotland's refund breach (+66% overall, +143% since 15 Oct), ties it to the supplier change, notes acceptance dip, and holds Scotland.
Sonnet 5.5 · API · Go/no-go for AI substitutions, from the rollout data
Treats the overwrites as data loss100% pass
Treats the overwritten notes on Android 11 as a breach of the no-data-loss criterion and makes fixing the storage-API issue a condition for that platform.
Opus 5.5 · Claude · Offline, on older phones
Addresses the actual decision98% pass
Commits to a clear no-go for 2 Nov, conditional go from 4 Nov for four regions, and no-go for Scotland, with conditions that would change it.
Sonnet 5.5 · API · Go/no-go for AI substitutions, from the rollout data

Where it slips

Limits the downside of being wrong63% pass
It does not name a specific post-launch signal, a threshold that would trigger pause or rollback, or flag any irreversible actions.
GPT-6 Luna · API · Go/no-go for AI substitutions, from the rollout data
Judges the launch against a baseline set now66% pass
Does not name a specific review point or when the team will review results to decide next steps; only gives a pause trigger without a scheduled evaluation.
GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Offline, on older phones
Checks every criterion for every platform69% pass
Android 13's error-free sync is 98.9%, below the 99% threshold, yet the table marks it as 'GO WITH CONDITIONS' instead of 'NO-GO' for that criterion, misapplying the hard launch criteria.
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini · Offline, on older phones

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

Limits the downside of being wrong
Does the call say how exposure is limited if it's wrong: what is watched after launch, the threshold that would pause or roll back, and which parts can't be undone?
Passes when Names the post-launch signal, a threshold or trigger, and the action, and flags anything irreversible (customer communications, pricing, migrations).
Karri SaarinenLenny’s Podcast
Judges the launch against a baseline set now
Does the call name the metric and the current baseline the launch will be judged against, and when the team will review the result to decide what's next?
Passes when Names the success metric, its baseline from the material, and a review point with what each result would lead to.
Todd JacksonLenny’s Podcast

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · Gets the base of every number right · and 2 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're the PM for Lumen's mobile apps. The launch review for offline sync is on Friday, and marketing has an email booked for Monday to every user. Write your recommendation, in no more than 700 words, with a table checking each launch criterion for each platform: go, no-go or go with conditions, and why. The rollout data, the criteria and the incident log are attached.

What the model was given5 items: About Lumen, launch_criteria.md, rollout_25pct_14_days.csv, incidents.md, the_decision.md

About LumenA notes app for teams, on iOS, Android and the web. Offline sync lets people edit notes without a connection and merges changes when they reconnect.

launch_criteria.md6 lines · Download

# Launch criteria (agreed before the rollout)

1. Crash-free sessions no more than 0.2 points below control, per platform.
2. Sync-conflict tickets under 2 per 1,000 users.
3. Notes synced without error at least 99%.
4. No data loss incidents.

rollout_25pct_14_days.csv8 rows · Download

platform,arm,users,crash_free_sessions_pct,sync_conflict_tickets_per_1000_users,notes_synced_without_error_pct
iOS 17+,control,123600,99.62,0.3,99.5
iOS 17+,offline sync,41200,99.58,0.6,99.4
Android 14+,control,68400,99.55,0.3,99.5
Android 14+,offline sync,22800,99.49,0.8,99.2
Android 13,control,27300,99.4,0.3,99.5
Android 13,offline sync,9100,99.31,1.1,98.9
…

incidents.md4 lines · Download

# Incidents during the 25% rollout (14 days)

- 2 reports of a note's edits being overwritten after a conflict, both on Android 11; engineering recovered both from backups. Root cause: an older Android storage API.
- 1 report of slow sync on iOS, not reproduced.

the_decision.md1 lines · Download

The launch review is Friday: roll offline sync out to 100%, or not. Marketing has a launch email booked for Monday to every user.

What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Checks each criterion per platform. iOS 17+, Android 14+ and Android 13 pass: crash-free sessions within 0.2 points of control (iOS -0.04, Android 14+ -0.06, Android 13 -0.09), sync-conflict tickets under 2 per 1,000, notes synced without error at least 99%. Android 12 and older fails three criteria: crash-free down 0.67 points against control, 4.9 conflict tickets per 1,000, 96.1% synced without error; and the two overwritten-note incidents were on Android 11, which breaks 'no data loss' (both recovered from backup, root cause an older storage API). Recommends go for iOS, Android 13 and newer, and no-go for Android 12 and older until the storage issue is fixed and re-tested; the Monday email should only go to users on supported versions, or wait. States what's monitored after launch and the threshold that would pause it.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)

Recommends rolling out to 100% on every platform

Task

Staff-level · v1.0

The outputs

8 setups answered this brief.

Opus 5.5Claude94Usable with a quick edit Sonnet 5.5API94Usable with a quick edit Haiku 5.5API94Usable with a quick edit GPT-6.1 SolAPI90Usable with a quick edit GPT-6 AstraChatGPT88Usable with a quick edit GPT-6 LunaAPI75Needs more work Gemini 3.8 FlashAPI71Needs more work Gemini 3.5 Flash-LiteGemini52Needs more work

Gemini 3.8 FlashAPI

Needs more than a quick edit8 of 11 checks passed

The recommendation lacks post-launch monitoring thresholds and a baseline review for the iOS and Android 14+ rollout; a PM would need to add those before acting.

Output

To: Executive Team & Launch Review Committee From: Mobile Product Manager, Lumen Date: October 25, 2024 Subject: Launch Review: Offline Sync Recommendation (Mobile)

---

Recommendation: Go with Conditions (Segmented Launch)

Proceed with a 100% rollout for iOS 17+ and Android 14+, but kill-switch/disable offline sync for Android 12 and older. Keep Android 13 held at 25% through Monday pending review.

Marketing’s Monday email blast must be updated to segment the audience: promote the feature only to eligible platforms, rather than blasting all users with an unsegmented announcement.

---

Launch Criteria Evaluation

Launch Criterion	iOS 17+	Android 14+	Android 13	Android 12 & older
:---	:---:	:---:	:---:	:---:
1. Crash-free sessions<br>(≤ 0.2% drop vs control)	PASS<br>-0.04% (99.58% vs 99.62%)	PASS<br>-0.06% (99.49% vs 99.55%)	PASS<br>-0.09% (99.31% vs 99.40%)	FAIL<br>-0.67% (98.71% vs 99.38%)
2. Sync-conflict tickets<br>(< 2.0 per 1k users)	PASS<br>0.6 / 1k	PASS<br>0.8 / 1k	PASS<br>1.1 / 1k	FAIL<br>4.9 / 1k
3. Clean sync rate<br>(≥ 99.0% without error)	PASS<br>99.4%	PASS<br>99.2%	FAIL<br>98.9% (-0.1%)	FAIL<br>96.1%
4. No data loss incidents	PASS<br>0 incidents	PASS<br>0 incidents	PASS<br>0 incidents	FAIL<br>2 incidents (Android 11)
Platform Decision	GO (100%)	GO (100%)	HOLD (25%)	NO-GO (0%)

---

Key Findings & Justification

1. iOS 17+ and Android 14+ (80% of our mobile base) are fully launch-ready. Both platforms exceed every bar comfortably. Crash impact is negligible (-0.04% to -0.06%), error-free sync rates exceed 99.2%, conflict tickets are low, and zero data-loss events occurred.

2. Android 12 and older is an unacceptable risk (Hard NO-GO). Android 12 and older failed every single metric. Most critically, it caused two data-loss incidents on Android 11, where conflicting edits were overwritten due to a deprecated storage API. While backups saved the content, our core value proposition as a collaborative team notes app relies on zero data loss. Coupled with high ticket volumes (4.9 / 1k) and a significant crash-rate drop (-0.67%), the offline sync flag must be completely turned off for Android ≤12 until the legacy storage integration is re-architected.

3. Android 13 is on the cusp (HOLD at 25%). Android 13 passed stability, conflict rate, and data loss criteria, but missed the clean sync rate threshold by 0.1% (98.9% vs. 99.0%). Because it remains stable and safe from data loss, we should hold at 25% over the weekend. Engineering will analyze non-fatal sync logs on Friday. If the 0.1% variance is cosmetic (e.g., immediate automatic retries), we can bump to 100% on Monday; otherwise, we hold until patched.

---

Conditions for Monday’s Launch

1. Targeted Feature Flag Activation (Friday COB): * Enable offline sync to 100% on iOS 17+ and Android 14+. * Maintain Android 13 at 25% treatment. * Remote-kill the offline sync flag (0%) for all clients on Android 12 and below.

2. Marketing Campaign Segmentation (Friday / Monday Morning): * Do not send an unsegmented blast. Promoting offline sync to users on older Android devices who cannot use it—or worse, who experience bugs—will spike support volume and erode trust. * Plan A (Recommended): Segment the Monday email list. Send the offline sync announcement only to iOS and Android 14+ active users. * Plan B (Fallback): If audience segmentation cannot be configured before Monday, amend the copy to state: "Now rolling out to iOS and Android 14+ (older Android versions coming soon)."

3. Engineering Follow-Up: * Triage Android 13 sync error logs by end-of-day Friday. * File remediation sprint for Android 11/12 legacy storage API integration.

Grades and run details

Decision model 73 · LLM judge 75

Decision model checks

failUses the supplied evidence correctly18%
passAddresses the actual decision64%
partialRespects explicit constraints17%
passIdentifies material uncertainty87%
partialAvoids unsupported claims51%
passProduces the required deliverable61%
partialChecks every criterion for every platform76%
passTreats the overwrites as data loss100%
partialLimits the downside of being wrong46%
passGets the base of every number right47%
passJudges the launch against a baseline set now68%

Run

Run: #1
API response time: 22 s
Submitted: 6 Oct 2026

Sonnet 5.5API

Usable with a quick edit11 of 11 checks passed

The output is factually correct, well-structured, and includes all required elements; a PM could act on it with at most minor wording tweaks.

Output

Recommendation: partial go

Ship offline sync to 100% on iOS 17+ and Android 14+. Do not ship it on Android 13 or Android 12 and older. Segment Monday's email so it doesn't promise the feature to users who won't have it.

Criteria check (25% rollout, 14 days)

Platform	1. Crash-free (≥ control −0.2)	2. Conflict tickets (<2/1,000)	3. Synced w/o error (≥99%)	4. No data loss	Verdict
iOS 17+	Go: −0.04	Go: 0.6	Go: 99.4%	Go: none (one slow-sync report, not reproduced)	Go
Android 14+	Go: −0.06	Go: 0.8	Go: 99.2%	Go: none	Go
Android 13	Go: −0.09	Go: 1.1, but over half the limit	No-go: 98.9%, misses by 0.1	Go: none reported	No-go for now
Android 12 and older	No-go: −0.67	No-go: 4.9, about 2.5× the limit	No-go: 96.1%	No-go: 2 overwrites on Android 11	No-go

Reasoning

iOS 17+ and Android 14+ pass every criterion with margin. Together they are about 80% of users. The iOS slow-sync report wasn't reproduced, so I'd watch it during the ramp but not block on it.

Android 13 misses one criterion by 0.1 points. That is small, but we agreed the criteria before seeing the data, and I don't want to bend them the first time a result is inconvenient. The trend also worries me. Sync success falls with each older Android tier (99.2 → 98.9 → 96.1), and conflict tickets rise (0.8 → 1.1 → 4.9). This looks like a gradient tied to the OS, not noise, so Android 13 sits on the slope. I'd hold it at its current exposure, find out why it's degrading, and re-measure. If it reaches 99% or better with conflicts still under 2, it can go.

Android 12 and older fails all four criteria, and it is not close. Crash-free sessions are 0.67 points below control, more than three times the allowed gap. Conflict tickets are about 2.5× the limit, and sync success is 3 points under the bar. The two data-loss incidents were edits overwritten after a conflict, on Android 11. Engineering recovered both from backups, but that doesn't make them acceptable. We only recovered them because users reported them, and silent overwrites may not have been reported. The root cause is an older Android storage API, so this is a structural problem and not a quick patch. I'd also disable offline sync for the users currently exposed on Android 11 and below until it's fixed. Data loss in a notes app is the failure users won't forgive.

The Monday email

An email to every user would promise a feature to roughly 20% of users (Android 13 and older, about 66,000 of 322,000) who won't have it. That means confusion, support tickets, and a bad first impression of the feature. My recommendation is:

Send Monday to iOS 17+ and Android 14+ users only, and only if the ramp over the weekend stays within the criteria. Marketing should confirm it can segment by platform and OS version.
Hold the email for Android 13 and older. Send it when each segment passes, or send a "coming to your device soon" version if marketing wants one.
Check the ramp Monday morning. If crash-free sessions or sync success slip on either approved platform, pause the email and the ramp.

Conditions and next steps

Android 12 and older: Engineering should scope a fix for the storage API issue, and we should re-test in a new, smaller cohort. I'd also like the data split into Android 12 versus 11 and below. The incidents were all on Android 11, so Android 12 itself may be fine, but this bucket can't tell us.
Android 13: Investigate the sync errors and re-measure in 1–2 weeks.
Data-loss monitoring: Add a check for overwrite after conflict, so we aren't relying on users to tell us.

Caveats

The data covers 14 days at 25%. The Android 13 miss is small enough that more data could move it either way.
Per-platform samples are decent (7,400 to 41,200 users), but two data-loss incidents is a tiny count. Treat it as a signal and not an estimate of the true rate.

Grades and run details

Decision model 86 · LLM judge 100

Decision model checks

passUses the supplied evidence correctly33%
passAddresses the actual decision85%
partialRespects explicit constraints24%
passIdentifies material uncertainty97%
partialAvoids unsupported claims28%
passProduces the required deliverable72%
partialChecks every criterion for every platform49%
passTreats the overwrites as data loss100%
passLimits the downside of being wrong77%
passGets the base of every number right29%
passJudges the launch against a baseline set now85%

Run

Run: #1
API response time: 28 s
Submitted: 6 Oct 2026

Gemini 3.5 Flash-LiteGemini

Needs more than a quick edit5 of 11 checks passed

The output incorrectly marks Android 13 as go with conditions despite failing the error-free sync criterion, and lacks post-launch monitoring thresholds, so a PM would need to re-check the criteria and add missing guardrails.

Output

To: Leadership Team From: PM, Lumen Mobile Apps Date: March 28, 2024 Subject: Recommendation: Offline Sync 100% Rollout (Friday Launch Review)

---

Executive Summary

We have completed the 14-day, 25% rollout of Offline Sync across iOS and Android. Based on the data, incident logs, and agreed launch criteria, my recommendation is a segmented decision for Monday’s full rollout:

iOS 17+: GO. All metrics meet or exceed criteria with zero critical incidents.
Android 14+ and Android 13: GO WITH CONDITIONS. Stability is acceptable, but minor degradation requires a hotfix commitment before 100% exposure.
Android 12 and older: NO-GO. Fails multiple hard launch criteria, including data loss incidents. We must exclude these OS versions from the 100% rollout.

---

Launch Criteria Status Matrix

Platform / OS	1. Crash-Free (Max -0.2% vs control)	2. Conflict Tickets (<2 / 1k users)	3. Error-Free Sync (≥99%)	4. No Data Loss	Final Recommendation & Rationale
:---	:---:	:---:	:---:	:---:	:---
iOS 17+	GO<br>(99.58% vs 99.62% control; Δ -0.04)	GO<br>(0.6 / 1k)	GO<br>(99.4%)	GO<br>(0 incidents)	GO. Performs well within tolerance. One unverified slow-sync report does not block.
Android 14+	GO<br>(99.49% vs 99.55% control; Δ -0.06)	GO<br>(0.8 / 1k)	GO<br>(99.2%)	GO<br>(0 incidents)	GO WITH CONDITIONS. Stable, but error-free sync is close to the 99% floor. Ship with expedited telemetry monitoring.
Android 13	GO<br>(99.31% vs 99.40% control; Δ -0.09)	GO<br>(1.1 / 1k)	GO WITH CONDITIONS<br>(98.9%)	GO<br>(0 incidents)	GO WITH CONDITIONS. Sync error rate dips slightly below 99% (98.9%). Acceptable for rollout only alongside a targeted patch.
Android 12 and older	NO-GO<br>(98.71% vs 99.38% control; Δ -0.67)	NO-GO<br>(4.9 / 1k)	NO-GO<br>(96.1%)	NO-GO<br>(2 data loss incidents)	NO-GO. Fails all criteria. Legacy storage APIs caused two overwrites. Exclude from 100% release.

---

Key Findings & Rationale

iOS is Fully Vetted: iOS users experience virtually identical stability to the control group. The single support ticket regarding slow sync was an isolated, non-reproducible event.
Modern Android is Stable, but Needs Polish: Android 13 and 14+ show minor dips in error-free sync rates (98.9% and 99.2%, respectively) and slight increases in conflict tickets, but both remain safely within agreed thresholds and exhibit zero data loss.
Legacy Android is a Risk: Android 12 and older failed Criterion 1 (crash-free sessions dropped by 0.67%), Criterion 2 (4.9 conflict tickets per 1k users), Criterion 3 (96.1% sync success), and violated Criterion 4 (two confirmed data loss incidents due to legacy storage API conflicts). Although engineering successfully recovered the notes from backups, data loss is a hard stop for a 100% rollout.

---

Action Plan for Monday’s Launch

1. Modify the Rollout Scope: * Push 100% of Offline Sync to iOS 17+ and Android 13+. * Halt the rollout for Android 12 and older, keeping these users on the standard online-only experience until a refactored storage handler is built. 2. Marketing Alignment: Proceed with Monday’s email blast to all users, with a minor internal note to customer support regarding known edge cases on legacy Android devices. 3. Engineering Post-Launch Focus: Prioritize a patch for legacy Android storage APIs to bring older devices up to launch standard for a secondary release next quarter.

Grades and run details

Decision model 50 · LLM judge 58

Decision model checks

failUses the supplied evidence correctly16%
partialAddresses the actual decision37%
failRespects explicit constraints35%
partialIdentifies material uncertainty87%
partialAvoids unsupported claims30%
partialProduces the required deliverable44%
partialChecks every criterion for every platform25%
passTreats the overwrites as data loss96%
partialLimits the downside of being wrong96%
passGets the base of every number right49%
partialJudges the launch against a baseline set now82%

Run

Run: #1
Time to output: 5 s
Submitted: 5 Oct 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 6

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyMixedRightMixed

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Every fact about the current situation is directly from the supplied context or follows from arithmetic; no invented numbers or events.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

All factual claims about the current situation are directly supported by the supplied data or simple arithmetic from it.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

All factual claims about current performance, numbers, and incidents are taken directly from the supplied rollout data and incident log, with no invented facts.

Respects explicit constraintsRightRightMixed

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The output is a recommendation under 700 words, includes the required table with go/no-go/conditions per platform and criterion, and does not propose a 100% rollout to every platform.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Output is under 700 words, includes the required table with go/no-go per platform, and addresses the launch review decision and Monday email.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output is a recommendation memo under 700 words, includes the required table with go/no-go/go with conditions per platform, and addresses the leadership team as the reader.

Identifies material uncertaintyRightRightWrong

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Identifies the specific uncertainty on Android 13 (cosmetic vs real sync error) and says how it will be resolved (log analysis Friday) and what each outcome would mean.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Names the small Android 13 miss, the need to split Android 12 vs 11, and the tiny data-loss count as uncertainties, and says how to resolve them.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Does not name specific unknowns that could change the decision, does not bound them, and does not say how they would be resolved or what post-launch signal would trigger a pause or rollback.

Checks every criterion for every platformRightRightWrong

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The table evaluates each criterion per platform correctly, with the correct figures, and identifies Android 12 and older as failing; Android 13 correctly fails the sync-error criterion.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Table correctly computes each criterion for every platform against control and thresholds, and correctly identifies Android 12 and older as failing.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Android 13's error-free sync is 98.9%, below the 99% threshold, yet the table marks it as 'GO WITH CONDITIONS' instead of 'NO-GO' for that criterion, misapplying the hard launch criteria.

Limits the downside of being wrongWrongRightWrong

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Does not name the signals, thresholds or triggers that would pause or roll back the 100% rollout on iOS 17+ and Android 14+; only addresses monitoring for the Android 13 hold.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Specifies post-launch monitoring (crash-free, sync success), a trigger (slip), and action (pause email and ramp), and flags the irreversible email communication.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Does not name a post-launch signal, a threshold that would pause or roll back, or flag irreversible actions; only mentions 'expedited telemetry monitoring' without specifics.

Judges the launch against a baseline set nowMixedRightWrong

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

No mention of a specific success metric and its baseline to judge the launch, nor a review point with what each result would mean for the full rollout.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Names the success metrics (crash-free sessions, sync success), implies the baseline from the go criteria, and sets a review point (Monday morning) with a clear action if they slip.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Does not name a success metric with its current baseline from the data, nor a review point with what each result would lead to.

All got right 5

Addresses the actual decisionRightRightRight

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Commits to a segmented 'Go with Conditions' answer, frames it for the executive team, and specifies what would change the Android 13 hold.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Commits early to a clear partial-go recommendation (ship to iOS 17+ and Android 14+, hold Android 13 and older) and states what would change each call.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Commits early to a segmented go/no-go call per platform, framed for the leadership team, and states that a refactored storage handler would change the no-go for Android 12 and older.

Avoids unsupported claimsRightRightRight

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The Android 13 variance hypothesis is clearly labelled ('If … cosmetic'), and all confident claims are backed by the evidence.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Interpretations like the OS gradient are presented as hypotheses ('looks like'), and no unsupported facts are stated as certain.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Interpretive statements like 'iOS is Fully Vetted' are clearly opinion, and causal claims (legacy storage API) are directly supported by the incident log.

Produces the required deliverableRightRightRight

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

A recommendation with a complete table, under 700 words, addressed to the right audience, and actionable on Monday with only light edits.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Provides a complete recommendation with table, reasoning, email plan, and next steps, usable by a product manager with light edits.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The memo is complete, within word limit, contains the required table, and a leadership team could act on the segmented recommendation with light edits.

Treats the overwrites as data lossRightRightRight

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Treats the overwritten notes as a no-data-loss breach, marks it as FAIL for Android 12 and older, and makes fixing the storage API a condition for that platform.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Treats the Android 11 overwrites as a breach of the no-data-loss criterion and makes a fix a condition for that platform.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Explicitly treats the two overwritten notes on Android 11 as a breach of the no-data-loss criterion and makes fixing the storage API a condition for that platform.

Gets the base of every number rightRightRightRight

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

All percentage differences, ticket rates, and the 80% user base figure are derived correctly from the supplied data.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

All derived figures (differences, percentages, user shares) are computed correctly from the supplied data, with no ambiguous bases.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

All percentage differences are computed correctly from the control and offline-sync values in the CSV, and the base (percentage points) is clear.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated. Where our PM checked the graders by hand, they agreed on 63% of 68 checks.

#	Model · Harness	Decision model	LLM judge	Runs	Critical failures
1	Sonnet 5.5withAPI	87.8	100.0	2	None
2	Haiku 5.5withAPI	82.5	100.0	2	None
3	GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI	86.0	95.8	2	None
4	Opus 5.5withClaude	84.3	96.7	2	None
5	GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT	83.8	92.5	2	None
6	GPT-6 LunawithAPI	74.8	80.8	2	None
7	Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI	64.9	67.5	2	1 capped
8	Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini	48.2	59.2	2	None

What you get for the cost

Haiku 5.5 · API scores within 2 points of Sonnet 5.5 · API at about a tenth of the cost.

Best valueNobody beats these on both score and costCost partly estimated (app runs with no usage meter)At least one critical failure

Task score and relative cost by setup
Setup	Task score	Relative cost (cheapest = 1)
GPT-6 Luna · API	77	1.0×
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini	52	2.7× (partly estimated)
Haiku 5.5 · API	92	2.8×
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API	55	11×
GPT-6.1 Sol · API	91	12×
Sonnet 5.5 · API	94	37×
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT	89	46× (partly estimated)
Opus 5.5 · Claude	91	59× (partly estimated)

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

The PM job

Deciding whether a feature ships on the planned date, and on what conditions.

Why it matters

Launch meetings reward optimism. A good call checks each agreed criterion, weighs a real risk against a real gain, and says exactly what would change the answer. A weak one rubber-stamps the launch or blocks it on noise.

What good looks like

Checks each agreed criterion against the evidence
Makes one clear call, with conditions if needed
Separates risks that block launch from risks that can be managed
Says what would change the call
Says how to limit the damage if the call is wrong

Deliberately not measured

Rollout engineering detail
Project-plan formatting

Capability tested

Deciding against agreed launch criteria

The failure we’re looking for

Rubber-stamps a launch that misses an agreed bar, or blocks it on noise

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review

Variants

A launch memo from supplied evidence · Staff level: a regional call from an attached data workbook

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

Reliably right

Where it slips

How it’s graded

Limits the downside of being wrong

Judges the launch against a baseline set now

Plus our standard checks

The tasks

The outputs

Output

Recommendation: Go with Conditions (Segmented Launch)

Launch Criteria Evaluation

Key Findings & Justification

Conditions for Monday’s Launch

Grades and run details

Decision model checks

Run

Output

Recommendation: partial go

Criteria check (25% rollout, 14 days)

Reasoning

The Monday email

Conditions and next steps

Caveats

Grades and run details

Decision model checks

Run

Output

Executive Summary

Launch Criteria Status Matrix

Key Findings & Rationale

Action Plan for Monday’s Launch

Grades and run details

Decision model checks

Run

Check by check

Where they differ 6

All got right 5

Results

What you get for the cost

About the task

The PM job

Why it matters

What good looks like

Deliberately not measured