Tasks / Product Craft

Make the launch call

Can the model make a clear go / no-go call from mixed launch evidence, checked against the criteria agreed up front?

Task type v1.2 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 18 graded outputs by 9 models. 67% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

Produces the required deliverable100% pass
Provides a complete recommendation with table, reasoning, email plan, and next steps, usable by a product manager with light edits.
Sonnet 5.5 · API · Offline, on older phones
Finds the Scotland breach100% pass
Finds Scotland's refund breach, ties it to the supplier change, notes the acceptance dip, and holds Scotland.
GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Go/no-go for AI substitutions, from the rollout data
Treats the overwrites as data loss100% pass
Treats the Android 11 overwrites as a breach of the no-data-loss criterion and makes a fix a condition for that platform.
Sonnet 5.5 · API · Offline, on older phones

Where it slips

Judges the launch against a baseline set now51% pass
Does not name a specific review point or when the team will review results to decide next steps; only gives a pause trigger without a scheduled evaluation.
GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Offline, on older phones
Checks every criterion for every platform64% pass
Android 13's error-free sync is 98.9%, below the 99% threshold, yet the table marks it as 'GO WITH CONDITIONS' instead of 'NO-GO' for that criterion, misapplying the hard launch criteria.
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini · Offline, on older phones
Gets the base of every number right67% pass
The 80.5% user base proportion is miscalculated; correct proportion from the data is 79.5%.
Gemini 4 Argon · API · Offline, on older phones

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

Limits the downside of being wrong
Does the call say how exposure is limited if it's wrong: what is watched after launch, the threshold that would pause or roll back, and which parts can't be undone?
Passes when Names the post-launch signal, a threshold or trigger, and the action, and flags anything irreversible (customer communications, pricing, migrations).
Karri SaarinenLenny’s Podcast
Judges the launch against a baseline set now
Does the call name the metric and the current baseline the launch will be judged against, and when the team will review the result to decide what's next?
Passes when Names the success metric, its baseline from the material, and a review point with what each result would lead to.
Todd JacksonLenny’s Podcast

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · Gets the base of every number right · and 2 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're the PM for Lumen's mobile apps. The launch review for offline sync is on Friday, and marketing has an email booked for Monday to every user. Write your recommendation, in no more than 700 words, with a table checking each launch criterion for each platform: go, no-go or go with conditions, and why. The rollout data, the criteria and the incident log are attached.

What the model was given5 items: About Lumen, launch_criteria.md, rollout_25pct_14_days.csv, incidents.md, the_decision.md

About LumenA notes app for teams, on iOS, Android and the web. Offline sync lets people edit notes without a connection and merges changes when they reconnect.

launch_criteria.md6 lines · Download

# Launch criteria (agreed before the rollout)

1. Crash-free sessions no more than 0.2 points below control, per platform.
2. Sync-conflict tickets under 2 per 1,000 users.
3. Notes synced without error at least 99%.
4. No data loss incidents.

rollout_25pct_14_days.csv8 rows · Download

platform,arm,users,crash_free_sessions_pct,sync_conflict_tickets_per_1000_users,notes_synced_without_error_pct
iOS 17+,control,123600,99.62,0.3,99.5
iOS 17+,offline sync,41200,99.58,0.6,99.4
Android 14+,control,68400,99.55,0.3,99.5
Android 14+,offline sync,22800,99.49,0.8,99.2
Android 13,control,27300,99.4,0.3,99.5
Android 13,offline sync,9100,99.31,1.1,98.9
…

incidents.md4 lines · Download

# Incidents during the 25% rollout (14 days)

- 2 reports of a note's edits being overwritten after a conflict, both on Android 11; engineering recovered both from backups. Root cause: an older Android storage API.
- 1 report of slow sync on iOS, not reproduced.

the_decision.md1 lines · Download

The launch review is Friday: roll offline sync out to 100%, or not. Marketing has a launch email booked for Monday to every user.

What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Checks each criterion per platform. iOS 17+, Android 14+ and Android 13 pass: crash-free sessions within 0.2 points of control (iOS -0.04, Android 14+ -0.06, Android 13 -0.09), sync-conflict tickets under 2 per 1,000, notes synced without error at least 99%. Android 12 and older fails three criteria: crash-free down 0.67 points against control, 4.9 conflict tickets per 1,000, 96.1% synced without error; and the two overwritten-note incidents were on Android 11, which breaks 'no data loss' (both recovered from backup, root cause an older storage API). Recommends go for iOS, Android 13 and newer, and no-go for Android 12 and older until the storage issue is fixed and re-tested; the Monday email should only go to users on supported versions, or wait. States what's monitored after launch and the threshold that would pause it.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)

Recommends rolling out to 100% on every platform

Task

Staff-level · v1.1

The outputs

9 setups answered this brief.

Sonnet 5.5API98Usable with a quick edit Opus 5.5Claude94Usable with a quick edit Haiku 5.5API94Usable with a quick edit GPT-6.1 SolAPI92Usable with a quick edit GPT-6 AstraChatGPT92Usable with a quick edit GPT-6 LunaAPI75Needs more work Gemini 4 ArgonAPI71Usable with a quick edit Gemini 3.8 FlashAPI69Needs more work Gemini 3.5 Flash-LiteGemini58Needs more work

Gemini 4 ArgonAPI

Usable with a quick edit7 of 11 checks passed

The platform decisions and table are correct; a PM could quickly fix the 80.5% arithmetic and add a monitoring plan without redoing the analysis.

Output

To: Launch Review Committee From: Product Manager, Mobile Apps Date: Friday (Launch Review) Subject: Offline Sync 100% Rollout Recommendation

Executive Recommendation: Go with Conditions (Segmented Rollout)

Based on our 14-day, 25% rollout data, I recommend a Go for iOS 17+ and Android 14+, which represent 80.5% of our mobile user base.

I recommend a No-Go for Android 12 and older due to severe stability and data loss issues, and a Go with Conditions (or short delay) for Android 13, which narrowly missed our sync error threshold by 0.1%.

Consequently, Marketing must not send the Monday launch email to every user. We must either segment the email to eligible OS versions or adjust the messaging to reflect system requirements (iOS 17+ / Android 14+).

---

Launch Criteria Evaluation by Platform

Platform (% of Total Users)	1. Crash-Free Sessions (Max -0.2 pts vs. Control)	2. Conflict Tickets (< 2.0 per 1k users)	3. Sync Success Rate (≥ 99.0%)	4. Data Loss Incidents (0 incidents)	Decision & Rationale
:---	:---	:---	:---	:---	:---
iOS 17+<br>(51.2%)	PASS<br>99.58% vs 99.62%<br>(-0.04 pts)	PASS<br>0.6	PASS<br>99.4%	PASS<br>0 incidents (1 unrep. slow sync)	GO<br>Meets all criteria comfortably.
Android 14+<br>(29.3%)	PASS<br>99.49% vs 99.55%<br>(-0.06 pts)	PASS<br>0.8	PASS<br>99.2%	PASS<br>0 incidents	GO<br>Meets all criteria comfortably.
Android 13<br>(11.7%)	PASS<br>99.31% vs 99.40%<br>(-0.09 pts)	PASS<br>1.1	FAIL<br>98.9%<br>(-0.1% below target)	PASS<br>0 incidents	GO WITH CONDITIONS<br>Borderline miss on sync errors (98.9%). Safe on data loss and crashes.
Android 12 & older<br>(9.5%)	FAIL<br>98.71% vs 99.38%<br>(-0.67 pts)	FAIL<br>4.9	FAIL<br>96.1%	FAIL<br>2 overwritten notes on Android 11	NO-GO<br>Fails every criterion. Legacy storage API causes data overwrites.

---

Detailed Rationale & Next Steps

1. Greenlight iOS 17+ and Android 14+ (Roll out to 100% on Monday) Both modern platforms passed every gate with healthy margins. The single report of slow sync on iOS could not be reproduced and did not impact overall sync success rates (99.4%). These cohorts are ready for a 100% rollout.

2. Block & Roll Back Android 12 and Older (Immediate Action) Android 12 and older failed all four launch criteria. Most critically, an older Android storage API caused two incidents on Android 11 where conflict resolution overwrote user edits (requiring manual backup recovery by engineering). For a collaborative notes app, data loss is a dealbreaker. * Action: Immediately roll back the 25% test cohort on Android ≤12 to 0%. Engineering will scope whether fixing the legacy storage API is worth the investment for 9.5% of our base, or if we officially deprecate offline sync for Android ≤12.

3. Android 13 Conditions Android 13 passed stability, conflict ticket, and zero-data-loss criteria, but hit 98.9% on error-free syncs (0.1 points short of our 99.0% gate). * Condition for Go: If Engineering confirms before EOD today that Android 13 does not use the legacy storage API that caused the Android 11 data loss, and that the 1.1% error rate fails gracefully (i.e., retries on next connection without corrupting data), we can include Android 13 in Monday’s launch while fast-following a patch. * Alternative: If there is any architectural overlap with the Android 11 bug, hold Android 13 at 25% until patched.

4. Marketing & Monday Email Plan Because we are holding back at least 9.5% (and up to 21.2%) of users on older Android versions, we cannot send a blanket announcement to all users without generating support tickets and frustration. Marketing has two options for Monday: * Option A (Recommended): Segment the email list to send only to users on iOS 17+ and Android 14+ (and Android 13, if cleared today), plus Web users. * Option B: Send to all users, but explicitly state in the email body and help docs: "Offline sync is rolling out today for iOS 17+ and Android 14+."

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

iOS 17+ and Android 14+ represent 80.5% of our mobile user base.

Grades and run details

Decision model 73 · LLM judge 67

Decision model checks

passUses the supplied evidence correctly23%
passAddresses the actual decision62%
passRespects explicit constraints43%
passIdentifies material uncertainty97%
partialAvoids unsupported claims25%
passProduces the required deliverable61%
partialChecks every criterion for every platform52%
passTreats the overwrites as data loss100%
partialLimits the downside of being wrong70%
failGets the base of every number right13%
partialJudges the launch against a baseline set now30%

Run

Run: #1
API response time: 12 s
Submitted: 13 Oct 2026

GPT-6.1 SolAPI

Usable with a quick edit10 of 11 checks passed

The output is clear, evidence is correctly used, and a PM could act on it with minor edits; no re-checking of facts or reasoning is needed.

Output

Recommendation for Friday

No-go for a blanket rollout to 100% of users. Approve expansion on iOS 17+ and Android 14+ only, with the safeguards below. Hold Android 13 and Android 12 and older. Do not approve web without launch evidence.

The agreed criteria are launch gates, not averages across platforms. Strong iOS results cannot offset failures on older Android versions.

Launch-gate assessment

“Go” below means the supplied evidence meets that criterion; it is not an unconditional platform launch approval.

Platform	Crash-free sessions: ≤0.2 percentage-point decline	Conflict tickets: <2/1,000	Successful sync: ≥99%	No data loss	Platform decision
iOS 17+	Go: 99.58%; down 0.04 points vs. control	Go: 0.6/1,000	Go: 99.4%	Go: no reported incidents	Go with conditions: meets all gates; use monitored expansion
Android 14+	Go: 99.49%; down 0.06 points	Go: 0.8/1,000	Go: 99.2%	Go with conditions: no reported incidents; confirm the older-storage-API defect cannot affect this cohort	Go with conditions: expand only after that confirmation
Android 13	Go: 99.31%; down 0.09 points	Go: 1.1/1,000	No-go: 98.9%, below 99%	Go: no reported incidents	No-go: fails successful-sync gate
Android 12 and older	No-go: 98.71%; down 0.67 points	No-go: 4.9/1,000	No-go: 96.1%	No-go: two overwritten-edit incidents on Android 11	No-go: fails all four gates
Web	No-go: no evidence supplied	No-go: no evidence supplied	No-go: no evidence supplied	No-go: absence of incidents is not established	No-go for approval: insufficient evidence, not a demonstrated product failure

Conditions and actions

Treat the overwritten edits as data-loss incidents. Backup recovery mitigated their impact; it does not satisfy “no data loss incidents.” Engineering’s root-cause finding is not evidence that a fix has shipped or passed validation.
Before expanding eligible cohorts, confirm platform targeting excludes held cohorts, establish monitoring and a tested kill switch, and confirm the Android storage defect is isolated. Expand in monitored steps toward 100% of eligible users. Pause if any agreed gate fails or a data-loss incident occurs.
Stop further exposure on Android 12 and older. Engineering should determine the safest disablement path for existing participants without stranding unsynced edits. Require a validated fix and fresh rollout evidence meeting all four gates before reconsideration.
Keep Android 13 out of general launch. Its 98.9% result is close, but still fails the pre-agreed threshold. Investigate sync errors and rerun validation; do not lower the gate to meet the marketing date.
Investigate the unreproduced iOS slow-sync report, but do not treat it as a failed gate on current evidence.

Monday’s email

Do not send the booked launch email to every user. Retarget it to approved, eligible users only, and send only if Friday’s conditions are satisfied and expansion remains healthy. State supported OS versions clearly; do not imply availability on web or held Android versions.

If segmentation or readiness cannot be confirmed, postpone the email. Marketing timing should follow launch readiness—not override the agreed reliability and data-integrity gates.

Grades and run details

Decision model 91 · LLM judge 92

Decision model checks

passUses the supplied evidence correctly72%
passAddresses the actual decision88%
passRespects explicit constraints59%
passIdentifies material uncertainty100%
passAvoids unsupported claims49%
passProduces the required deliverable86%
partialChecks every criterion for every platform37%
passTreats the overwrites as data loss100%
passLimits the downside of being wrong97%
passGets the base of every number right86%
partialJudges the launch against a baseline set now20%

Run

Run: #1
API response time: 27 s
Submitted: 6 Oct 2026

Gemini 3.8 FlashAPI

Needs more than a quick edit8 of 11 checks passed

The recommendation lacks post-launch monitoring thresholds and a baseline review for the iOS and Android 14+ rollout; a PM would need to add those before acting.

Output

To: Executive Team & Launch Review Committee From: Mobile Product Manager, Lumen Date: October 25, 2024 Subject: Launch Review: Offline Sync Recommendation (Mobile)

---

Recommendation: Go with Conditions (Segmented Launch)

Proceed with a 100% rollout for iOS 17+ and Android 14+, but kill-switch/disable offline sync for Android 12 and older. Keep Android 13 held at 25% through Monday pending review.

Marketing’s Monday email blast must be updated to segment the audience: promote the feature only to eligible platforms, rather than blasting all users with an unsegmented announcement.

---

Launch Criteria Evaluation

Launch Criterion	iOS 17+	Android 14+	Android 13	Android 12 & older
:---	:---:	:---:	:---:	:---:
1. Crash-free sessions<br>(≤ 0.2% drop vs control)	PASS<br>-0.04% (99.58% vs 99.62%)	PASS<br>-0.06% (99.49% vs 99.55%)	PASS<br>-0.09% (99.31% vs 99.40%)	FAIL<br>-0.67% (98.71% vs 99.38%)
2. Sync-conflict tickets<br>(< 2.0 per 1k users)	PASS<br>0.6 / 1k	PASS<br>0.8 / 1k	PASS<br>1.1 / 1k	FAIL<br>4.9 / 1k
3. Clean sync rate<br>(≥ 99.0% without error)	PASS<br>99.4%	PASS<br>99.2%	FAIL<br>98.9% (-0.1%)	FAIL<br>96.1%
4. No data loss incidents	PASS<br>0 incidents	PASS<br>0 incidents	PASS<br>0 incidents	FAIL<br>2 incidents (Android 11)
Platform Decision	GO (100%)	GO (100%)	HOLD (25%)	NO-GO (0%)

---

Key Findings & Justification

1. iOS 17+ and Android 14+ (80% of our mobile base) are fully launch-ready. Both platforms exceed every bar comfortably. Crash impact is negligible (-0.04% to -0.06%), error-free sync rates exceed 99.2%, conflict tickets are low, and zero data-loss events occurred.

2. Android 12 and older is an unacceptable risk (Hard NO-GO). Android 12 and older failed every single metric. Most critically, it caused two data-loss incidents on Android 11, where conflicting edits were overwritten due to a deprecated storage API. While backups saved the content, our core value proposition as a collaborative team notes app relies on zero data loss. Coupled with high ticket volumes (4.9 / 1k) and a significant crash-rate drop (-0.67%), the offline sync flag must be completely turned off for Android ≤12 until the legacy storage integration is re-architected.

3. Android 13 is on the cusp (HOLD at 25%). Android 13 passed stability, conflict rate, and data loss criteria, but missed the clean sync rate threshold by 0.1% (98.9% vs. 99.0%). Because it remains stable and safe from data loss, we should hold at 25% over the weekend. Engineering will analyze non-fatal sync logs on Friday. If the 0.1% variance is cosmetic (e.g., immediate automatic retries), we can bump to 100% on Monday; otherwise, we hold until patched.

---

Conditions for Monday’s Launch

1. Targeted Feature Flag Activation (Friday COB): * Enable offline sync to 100% on iOS 17+ and Android 14+. * Maintain Android 13 at 25% treatment. * Remote-kill the offline sync flag (0%) for all clients on Android 12 and below.

2. Marketing Campaign Segmentation (Friday / Monday Morning): * Do not send an unsegmented blast. Promoting offline sync to users on older Android devices who cannot use it—or worse, who experience bugs—will spike support volume and erode trust. * Plan A (Recommended): Segment the Monday email list. Send the offline sync announcement only to iOS and Android 14+ active users. * Plan B (Fallback): If audience segmentation cannot be configured before Monday, amend the copy to state: "Now rolling out to iOS and Android 14+ (older Android versions coming soon)."

3. Engineering Follow-Up: * Triage Android 13 sync error logs by end-of-day Friday. * File remediation sprint for Android 11/12 legacy storage API integration.

Grades and run details

Decision model 68 · LLM judge 75

Decision model checks

failUses the supplied evidence correctly25%
passAddresses the actual decision66%
passRespects explicit constraints62%
passIdentifies material uncertainty88%
partialAvoids unsupported claims43%
passProduces the required deliverable83%
partialChecks every criterion for every platform61%
passTreats the overwrites as data loss100%
partialLimits the downside of being wrong33%
passGets the base of every number right58%
failJudges the launch against a baseline set now10%

Run

Run: #1
API response time: 22 s
Submitted: 6 Oct 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 3

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyMixedRightMixed

Gemini 4 Argon · API

The claim that iOS 17+ and Android 14+ represent 80.5% of mobile users is incorrect; the correct proportion from the supplied data is 79.5%.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

All facts and figures come directly from the supplied rollout data and incident log, with no invented information.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Every fact about the current situation is directly from the supplied context or follows from arithmetic; no invented numbers or events.

Limits the downside of being wrongWrongRightWrong

Gemini 4 Argon · API

Does not name a post-launch monitoring signal, threshold, or action for the greenlit platforms, nor flag irreversible customer communications beyond email segmentation.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Specifies monitoring, a kill switch, and a pause trigger (any gate failure or data-loss incident), and addresses irreversible exposure on Android 12 and older.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Does not name the signals, thresholds or triggers that would pause or roll back the 100% rollout on iOS 17+ and Android 14+; only addresses monitoring for the Android 13 hold.

Gets the base of every number rightWrongRightRight

Gemini 4 Argon · API

The 80.5% user base proportion is miscalculated; correct proportion from the data is 79.5%.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

All percentage differences are computed correctly from the control and offline-sync values, and the bases (per 1,000 users, percentage points) are clear.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

All percentage differences, ticket rates, and the 80% user base figure are derived correctly from the supplied data.

All got wrong 1

Judges the launch against a baseline set nowWrongWrongWrong

Gemini 4 Argon · API

Does not name a post-launch review timeline or baseline metric beyond the existing launch criteria, nor what each result would lead to.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Does not name a specific review point or when the team will review results to decide next steps; only gives a pause trigger without a scheduled evaluation.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

No mention of a specific success metric and its baseline to judge the launch, nor a review point with what each result would mean for the full rollout.

All got right 7

Addresses the actual decisionRightRightRight

Gemini 4 Argon · API

Commits to a clear per-platform recommendation (Go/No-Go/Go with Conditions) early, and states what would change for Android 13.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Commits clearly to a no-go for blanket rollout, approves iOS 17+ and Android 14+ only, and states conditions that would change the call.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Commits to a segmented 'Go with Conditions' answer, frames it for the executive team, and specifies what would change the Android 13 hold.

Respects explicit constraintsRightRightRight

Gemini 4 Argon · API

The recommendation is within 700 words, contains the required table, and addresses a launch review committee.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Stays within 700 words, includes the required table with go/no-go/conditions per platform, and addresses the launch review audience.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The output is a recommendation under 700 words, includes the required table with go/no-go/conditions per platform and criterion, and does not propose a 100% rollout to every platform.

Identifies material uncertaintyRightRightRight

Gemini 4 Argon · API

Identifies key uncertainty about Android 13's storage API overlap and defines the condition for inclusion.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Identifies the storage API defect isolation, the unreproduced iOS slow sync, and segmentation readiness as unknowns, and says how to resolve them.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Identifies the specific uncertainty on Android 13 (cosmetic vs real sync error) and says how it will be resolved (log analysis Friday) and what each outcome would mean.

Avoids unsupported claimsRightRightRight

Gemini 4 Argon · API

No interpretations or causes are presented as established fact beyond what's supported; the root cause is from the incident log.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Presents the overwritten edits as data-loss incidents as a judgment call, not an established fact, and labels conditions clearly.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The Android 13 variance hypothesis is clearly labelled ('If … cosmetic'), and all confident claims are backed by the evidence.

Produces the required deliverableRightRightRight

Gemini 4 Argon · API

The memo includes the table, clear calls per platform, and actionable steps for marketing, making it immediately usable.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Provides a complete recommendation with the required table, within the word limit, and is directly usable by the launch review audience.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

A recommendation with a complete table, under 700 words, addressed to the right audience, and actionable on Monday with only light edits.

Checks every criterion for every platformRightRightRight

Gemini 4 Argon · API

Table correctly computes each criterion per platform, identifying Android 12 and older as the only failing platform across all criteria.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Table correctly computes each criterion for every platform, and correctly identifies Android 12 and older as failing.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The table evaluates each criterion per platform correctly, with the correct figures, and identifies Android 12 and older as failing; Android 13 correctly fails the sync-error criterion.

Treats the overwrites as data lossRightRightRight

Gemini 4 Argon · API

Treats the overwritten notes as a data-loss incident and uses it as a reason for no-go for Android 12 and older.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Explicitly treats the Android 11 overwritten edits as a breach of the no-data-loss criterion and makes a fix a condition for that platform.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Treats the overwritten notes as a no-data-loss breach, marks it as FAIL for Android 12 and older, and makes fixing the storage API a condition for that platform.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated. Where our PM checked the graders by hand, they agreed on 62% of 68 checks.

#	Model · Harness	Decision model	LLM judge	Runs	Critical failures
1	Sonnet 5.5withAPI	92.4	100.0	2	None
2	GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI	91.9	95.8	2	None
3	Haiku 5.5withAPI	84.3	100.0	2	None
4	GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT	91.9	92.5	2	None
5	Opus 5.5withClaude	84.3	96.7	2	None
6	GPT-6 LunawithAPI	80.2	80.8	2	None
7	Gemini 4 ArgonwithAPI	70.3	73.3	2	None
8	Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini	55.0	59.2	2	None
9	Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI	64.4	67.5	2	1 capped

What you get for the cost

Haiku 5.5 · API scores within 3 points of Sonnet 5.5 · API at about a tenth of the cost.

Best valueNobody beats these on both score and costCost partly estimated (app runs with no usage meter)At least one critical failure

Task score and relative cost by setup
Setup	Task score	Relative cost (cheapest = 1)
GPT-6 Luna · API	79	1.0×
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini	55	2.7× (partly estimated)
Haiku 5.5 · API	93	2.8×
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API	54	11×
GPT-6.1 Sol · API	94	12×
Gemini 4 Argon · API	71	14×
Sonnet 5.5 · API	96	37×
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT	93	46× (partly estimated)
Opus 5.5 · Claude	91	59× (partly estimated)

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

The PM job

Deciding whether a feature ships on the planned date, and on what conditions.

Why it matters

Launch meetings reward optimism. A good call checks each agreed criterion, weighs a real risk against a real gain, and says exactly what would change the answer. A weak one rubber-stamps the launch or blocks it on noise.

What good looks like

Checks each agreed criterion against the evidence
Makes one clear call, with conditions if needed
Separates risks that block launch from risks that can be managed
Says what would change the call
Says how to limit the damage if the call is wrong

Deliberately not measured

Rollout engineering detail
Project-plan formatting

Capability tested

Deciding against agreed launch criteria

The failure we’re looking for

Rubber-stamps a launch that misses an agreed bar, or blocks it on noise

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review

Variants

A launch memo from supplied evidence · Staff level: a regional call from an attached data workbook

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

Reliably right

Where it slips

How it’s graded

Limits the downside of being wrong

Judges the launch against a baseline set now

Plus our standard checks

The tasks

The outputs

Output

Executive Recommendation: Go with Conditions (Segmented Rollout)

Launch Criteria Evaluation by Platform

Detailed Rationale & Next Steps

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

Grades and run details

Decision model checks

Run

Output

Recommendation for Friday

Launch-gate assessment

Conditions and actions

Monday’s email

Grades and run details

Decision model checks

Run

Output

Recommendation: Go with Conditions (Segmented Launch)

Launch Criteria Evaluation

Key Findings & Justification

Conditions for Monday’s Launch

Grades and run details

Decision model checks

Run

Check by check

Where they differ 3

All got wrong 1

All got right 7

Results

What you get for the cost

About the task

The PM job

Why it matters

What good looks like

Deliberately not measured