Tasks / Metrics & Experimentation

Draft OKRs

Can the model turn a team's wish list into a few outcome-based OKRs that add up to the company's goals?

Task type v1.1 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 16 graded outputs by 8 models. 56% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Builds the key results on the data100% pass
    Key results 2 and 3 are built directly on the first-week joining data and time-to-shared-note data, with baselines from the brief and targets.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Eleven key results and a bonus
  2. Addresses the actual decision97% pass
    The output commits to a clear rewritten OKR set and a note explaining the changes, framed for the squad, and states that targets are proposed pending feasibility review.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Eleven key results and a bonus
  3. Focuses on the big rock94% pass
    The output reduces the draft to one objective with three KRs, explicitly drops dark mode, AI summaries, and NPS, and explains why.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Eleven key results and a bonus

Where it slips

  1. Flags the bonus link59% pass
    Mentions bonus multipliers only to justify outcome KRs; does not name the risk of safe targets or suggest decoupling OKR scores from bonuses.
    Haiku 5.5 · API · Eleven key results and a bonus
  2. Avoids unsupported claims69% pass
    Presents 'the gap is correlation' and 'the safe play is to pick easy KRs' as facts without labeling them as hypotheses.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · Eleven key results and a bonus
  3. Identifies material uncertainty69% pass
    The output does not name any specific unknowns that could change the OKRs or how they would be resolved.
    GPT-6 Luna · API · Eleven key results and a bonus

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

  1. Key results are outcomes, not output

    Is every key result a measurable change in customer or business behaviour, rather than something the team will ship or do?

    Passes when Every key result names a metric with a baseline and a target; shipping work appears only as initiatives that serve them.

  2. Focuses on the big rock

    Does the output cut the goals down to the few that matter most, rather than covering everything the team could do?

    Passes when Few objectives, each with a small number of key results, and says what was dropped and why.

  3. Shows how the goals add up

    Does the output show how each team-level key result contributes to the company-level goals, and flag any that don't?

    Passes when Every key result is linked to a company goal, with the reasoning or data that connects them, and any that serve no company goal are flagged or cut.

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · and 2 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're a Staff PM at Pathwise, working for the CPO, Grace Mensah. Last quarter's OKR scorecard is below, along with the company goal it was meant to serve. Grace wants a memo of no more than 1,100 words: what last quarter's OKRs actually tell us (not just the scores), and next quarter's OKRs for the Learner app, Admin and Growth teams, each with baselines and targets, that add up to the company goal.\n\nThe files are attached.

What the model was given5 items: About Pathwise, company_okr_q3.md, okr_scorecard_q3.csv (team_label is the type each team gave its key result), metric_dictionary.md, churn_reasons_q3.md
About PathwiseOnline learning for companies: courses employees take, and tools for the HR and L&D teams who buy it. Sold per seat on annual contracts.
company_okr_q3.md7 lines · Download
# Company OKR, Q3 (set by the CEO)

Objective: grow by keeping and expanding the customers we have.
- Net revenue retention: from 103% to 108%. Actual: 102%.
- Quarterly logo churn: from 3.1% to 2.5%. Actual: 3.4%.

Q3 average key result score across product teams: 0.81. The all-hands slide said "a great quarter".
okr_scorecard_q3.csv (team_label is the type each team gave its key result)team,objective,key_result,team_label,baseline,target,actual,score Content,Best course library in L&D,Publish 40 new courses,output,0,40,41,1.00 Content,Best course library in L&D,Course completion rate,outcome,41,55,58,1.00 Content,Best course library in L&D,Translate top 20 courses into 3 languages,output,0,60,60,1.00 Learner app,Learning people love,Ship mobile offline mode,output,0,1,1,1.00 Learner app,Learning people love,Weekly active learners per seat,outcome,0.31,0.4,0.29,0.00 Learner app,Learning people love,Ship streaks and badges,output,0,1,1,1.00 Learner app,Learning people love,App store rating,outcome,4.2,4.6,4.5,0.75 Admin,Admins get value fast,Launch 3 HRIS integrations,outcome,0,3,3,1.00 Admin,Admins get value fast,Days from contract to first learner,outcome,34,14,31,0.15 Admin,Admins get value fast,Ship new reporting dashboard,output,0,1,1,1.00 Growth,Expand inside accounts,Seats added in existing accounts,outcome,9200,14000,8100,0.00 Growth,Expand inside accounts,Run 12 expansion experiments,output,0,12,13,1.00 Growth,Expand inside accounts,Launch in-app upgrade prompts,output,0,1,1,1.00 Platform,Reliable at scale,Uptime,outcome,99.5,99.9,99.93,1.00 Platform,Reliable at scale,Migrate to new video CDN,output,0,1,1,1.00 Platform,Reliable at scale,Close 150 bugs,output,0,150,162,1.00
metric_dictionary.md5 lines · Download
# Metric dictionary (excerpt)

- Course completion rate: share of course enrolments marked complete. Until 31 July "complete" meant every module finished. From 1 August it means 80% of modules finished (changed so completion matches the certificate rule).
- Weekly active learners per seat: learners who start or continue a course in a week, divided by paid seats.
- Days from contract to first learner: calendar days from contract signature to the first learner starting a course.
churn_reasons_q3.md8 lines · Download
# Why accounts left in Q3 (exit interviews, 38 accounts)

- "Our people didn't use it": 17
- Budget cut: 9
- Moved to the LMS that came with our HR system: 7
- Content didn't fit our industry: 5

…
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Reads the scorecard for what it is: the average is 0.81, but every output key result scored 1.00 (things shipped) while outcome key results averaged about 0.48, and the company missed both goals (NRR 102% against 108%, churn 3.4% against 2.5%). Two scores flatter: 'Launch 3 HRIS integrations' is labelled an outcome but is output, and course completion only 'beat' its target because completion was redefined on 1 August (all modules to 80%), so the result can't be compared with its baseline. The outcome key results that matter for churn moved backwards or barely (weekly active learners per seat 0.31 to 0.29; days to first learner 34 to 31; seats added 8,100 against 9,200). Builds next quarter's OKRs on the churn evidence: low usage is the top exit reason, and accounts reaching a first learner within 14 days churn at a third of the rate. So Admin owns days from contract to first learner (from 31), Learner app owns weekly active learners per seat (from 0.29), Growth owns seats added in existing accounts or net expansion, each with a baseline from the files and a target, with shipping work as initiatives. Notes the completion metric needs restating on one definition before anyone uses it.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Describes last quarter as a success on the strength of the 0.81 average
Task

Staff-level · v1.0

The outputs

8 setups answered this brief.

Usable with a quick edit11 of 11 checks passed

The memo is logically structured, rooted in the evidence, and could be sent with minimal edits after pulling the TBD baselines and confirming the proposed company targets.

Output

To: Grace Mensah, CPO From: Staff PM Re: What Q3 OKRs told us, and Q4 team OKRs that add up to the company goal

Bottom line

Q3 looked like a good quarter (0.81 average) but failed on the goal it was meant to serve. We shipped almost everything we planned and moved the customer numbers the wrong way. Q4 needs to be built around the three things customers told us drive churn: people not using the product, slow time to first learner, and seat growth that depends on usage. Output shipping stays, but it no longer counts as success on its own.

What Q3 actually tells us

The 0.81 is a shipping score. Of 16 key results, nine were outputs (things we built, published, or closed). All nine scored 1.00. Outcomes scored 0.56 on average, and the outcome KRs that map to the company goal mostly failed:

  • Net revenue retention: 102% against a 108% target, and down from the 103% baseline.
  • Quarterly logo churn: 3.4% against a 2.5% target, and worse than the 3.1% baseline.
  • Seats added in existing accounts: 8,100, down from 9,200. Growth shipped 13 experiments and a prompt, and expansion still fell.
  • Weekly active learners per seat: 0.29, down from 0.31. Usage declined while we shipped streaks and offline mode.
  • Days from contract to first learner: 31, down from 34 against a target of 14. We barely moved the number that most affects churn.

The bright spots are real but don't map to the goal: app rating rose from 4.2 to 4.5, and uptime is ahead of target.

Why the goal didn't move: the team KRs never owned it. No team had NRR or churn as its KR. Each team optimized its own outputs, and the company numbers fell in the gaps between them.

The exit interviews say where the gaps are. Of 38 accounts that left in Q3:

  • 17 (45%): "Our people didn't use it." This is adoption, which sits with the Learner app and with the onboarding that Admin owns.
  • 9 (24%): budget cut. Hard to move directly, but more likely when usage is low.
  • 7 (18%): moved to the LMS that came with their HR system. Our three HRIS integrations did not stop this. We need to know which HR systems these accounts used.
  • 5 (13%): content didn't fit their industry. This is Content's problem, and it isn't in this memo's scope.

The most useful finding is the activation data: accounts that reached a first learner within 14 days churned at one-third the rate of the rest. Our average is 31 days. Activation speed is probably our highest-leverage lever, and Q3 barely touched it.

The completion rate score can't be trusted. On 1 August we changed the definition of "complete" from every module finished to 80% of modules finished. The 41→58 movement (scored 1.00) mixes two definitions, and the new definition is looser. Some or all of that gain is a measurement change, not learning. We should restate the Q2 baseline on the new definition before anyone cites this number. Until then it should not count as a win.

A smaller measurement issue: "Launch 3 HRIS integrations" was labeled an outcome but is really a count of shipped work. It should be an output, paired with an adoption outcome.

What this means for Q4

We should commit to the company numbers and make the team KRs add up to them. My proposal:

  • Net revenue retention: 102% → 106% at Q4 end (108% stays the year-end target, but I don't think it's reachable in one quarter from 102%).
  • Quarterly logo churn: 3.4% → 2.8%.

Churn and expansion both depend on usage, so I've set team targets on usage and activation rather than on shipping. Finance should confirm how much each lever contributes to NRR. I've assumed both churn and seat expansion have to move for the 106% target to hold.

Q4 team OKRs

Each team has two outcome KRs. Output KRs can sit underneath as supporting work but are not scored toward the goal. "TBD" baselines need to be pulled in week one, before targets are locked.

TeamObjectiveKey resultQ3 baselineQ4 target
Learner appLearners come back every weekWeekly active learners per seat0.290.35
Share of learners active in week 2 after their first courseTBD (pull week 1)Set week 2; expect +10 pts
AdminAccounts get a first learner fastMedian days from contract to first learner3121
Share of new contracts reaching first learner within 14 daysTBD (pull week 1)Set week 2 once baseline is known
GrowthExpansion follows real usageSeats added in existing accounts8,10010,500
Renewal-risk accounts (low usage, renewal in 90 days) with a named save planTBD (pull week 1)100% covered; save rate tracked

How the teams connect to the goal

  • Learner app reduces the 17 "didn't use it" churns. Higher weekly usage also feeds expansion, since seat growth needs people actually learning.
  • Admin targets the 14-day activation link. Getting the median from 31 to 21 days should move the share of accounts inside 14 days, which is where the churn gap is. The HRIS KR should be reviewed in week 2 by checking which HR systems the seven accounts that left for their HR LMS were using.
  • Growth stops measuring success as experiments run and starts measuring seats added in accounts that use the product. Expansion in low-usage accounts is a risk, not a win, so the renewal-risk KR makes Growth own the save motion for the budget-cut and low-usage accounts.

Decisions I need from you

  1. Agree the company targets (NRR 106%, churn 2.8%), or tell me to hold 108% and accept the risk.
  2. Restate completion rate. Finance or Data should back-calculate the Q2 baseline under the new definition. Until then Content's completion KR cannot be scored.
  3. Assign the churn-reason KR to a single owner. Right now no one owns the 38 exit interviews. I suggest Customer Success, reporting to you monthly.
  4. Content's fit problem. Five churns cited content fit. Content's Q4 OKRs should include an industry-fit KR. I'd like to discuss this with the Content lead before it's locked.

I can have the baselines pulled and the final targets locked by the end of week two.

Grades and run details

Decision model 91 · LLM judge 100
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly38%
  • passAddresses the actual decision41%
  • passRespects explicit constraints21%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty80%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims51%
  • partialProduces the required deliverable31%
  • passReads the scorecard for what it is91%
  • passCatches the redefined key result100%
  • passKey results are outcomes, not output73%
  • passFocuses on the big rock79%
  • passShows how the goals add up27%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
32 s
Submitted
8 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit10 of 11 checks passed

The memo is clear, evidence-based, and actionable; a PM could use it with minor wording tweaks to emphasize the output/outcome score split.

Output

Memo

To: Grace Mensah, CPO Subject: What Q3 OKRs tell us—and Q4 OKRs tied to retention and expansion

What Q3 tells us

Q3 was not a “great quarter” against the company goal. Net revenue retention fell to 102%, below the 108% goal, and logo churn rose to 3.4%, above the 2.5% goal. The 0.81 average team score obscures that miss: many high-scoring KRs measured shipping or activity, not customer value.

The clearest warning is usage. Learner app weekly active learners per paid seat declined from 0.31 to 0.29, missing its 0.40 target. In exit interviews, “our people didn’t use it” was the most common reason for leaving (17 of 38 accounts). That makes engagement a credible retention lever to investigate—not proof that low app usage caused those departures.

Onboarding is another promising lever: time to first learner was 31 days, versus a 14-day target. Accounts reaching a first learner within 14 days churned at one-third the rate of the rest. That association supports prioritizing faster activation, but does not establish causation. Seven of the 38 departing accounts moved to an LMS bundled with their HR system, so integrations may also matter; Q3’s three launches are an output, not evidence of customer adoption or retention impact.

Expansion also underperformed: existing-account seats added were 8,100, below both the 14,000 target and the 9,200 baseline. Running 13 experiments and shipping upgrade prompts did not translate into the intended result. Meanwhile, Content’s completion result is hard to interpret: the definition changed on 1 August, from every module to 80% of modules, so 58% cannot be fairly compared with the 55% target without a consistent-definition view. Strong uptime and course delivery are useful foundations, but do not offset the missed retention and expansion outcomes.

Proposed Q4 OKRs

Keep the company outcome explicit and shared: NRR 102% → 108%; quarterly logo churn 3.4% → 2.5%. These are not numbers that team KRs can literally be summed to produce. They are the outcomes the teams collectively support; the team KRs below are leading indicators. Review company outcomes alongside them, using consistent cohort and revenue definitions.

Team / objectiveKey result: Q3 baseline → Q4 target
Learner app — Make learning a regular habit for more paid learnersWeekly active learners per paid seat: 0.29 → 0.40
Admin — Get new customers to learner value soonerCalendar days from contract signature to first learner starting a course: 31 → 14 or fewer
Growth — Expand paid seats in existing accountsPaid seats added in existing accounts: 8,100 → 14,000

Use the existing metric definitions and reporting windows for these comparisons; do not count shipped features, experiments, or prompts as substitutes for the outcomes. The Q3 data provided does not show how expansion seats translate into NRR, or how team-level changes affect logo churn. For Q4 reviews, Finance and the teams should make the NRR bridge visible—expansion, contraction, and churn—and check whether faster activation and higher learner activity precede improved retention. That will let us judge whether these team results are actually adding up to the company goal.

Grades and run details

Decision model 86 · LLM judge 92
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly83%
  • passAddresses the actual decision50%
  • passRespects explicit constraints52%
  • partialIdentifies material uncertainty26%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims87%
  • passProduces the required deliverable45%
  • partialReads the scorecard for what it is85%
  • partialCatches the redefined key result32%
  • passKey results are outcomes, not output99%
  • passFocuses on the big rock75%
  • passShows how the goals add up32%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
24 s
Submitted
5 Oct 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 1

Reads the scorecard for what it isRightWrong
Haiku 5.5 · API

The memo explicitly separates output KRs (all 1.00) from outcome KRs (average ~0.56) and sets them against the missed company goals of NRR and churn, without relying on the 0.81 average.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Does not split the scores by output and outcome with numbers; only says 'many high-scoring KRs measured shipping or activity' without quantifying the perfect output scores versus poor outcome scores.

All got right 10

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyRightRight
Haiku 5.5 · API

All factual claims about the current situation are directly drawn from the supplied context or derived by arithmetic, with no invented facts.

GPT-6 Luna · API

All factual claims about the current situation are directly from the supplied context or arithmetic.

Addresses the actual decisionRightRight
Haiku 5.5 · API

The memo commits to clear next-quarter OKRs for the three teams with baselines and targets, and also proposes company-level targets while asking for CPO decision on them.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Commits to specific Q4 OKRs with baselines and targets, framed for the CPO, and suggests what to monitor to validate them.

Respects explicit constraintsRightRight
Haiku 5.5 · API

The output is a memo under 1,100 words, addressed to the CPO, includes the requested analysis and team OKRs with baselines and targets, and proposes them for the named teams.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Memo format, under 1,100 words, addresses the three requested teams and ties to the company goal.

Identifies material uncertaintyRightRight
Haiku 5.5 · API

The memo flags TBD baselines that need pulling, the need to restate the completion rate baseline, the unknown HR systems behind churn, and the lever contributions to NRR, bounding uncertainty and stating what would resolve it.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Identifies causation uncertainty, metric redefinition, and missing NRR bridge, and says how to resolve them in Q4 reviews.

Avoids unsupported claimsRightRight
Haiku 5.5 · API

Interpretations like the disconnect between team KRs and company goals are grounded in the scorecard data; no cause or forecast is presented as fact without evidence, and the tone remains analytical.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Hypotheses are clearly labelled as not proven, and interpretations are cautious.

Produces the required deliverableRightRight
Haiku 5.5 · API

The memo is a complete, actionable deliverable for the CPO: it analyses Q3, sets Q4 team OKRs with metrics, flags open decisions, and fits within the word limit.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Provides a complete memo with analysis and next-quarter OKRs as requested, usable as is.

Catches the redefined key resultRightRight
Haiku 5.5 · API

The memo flags both the 1 August redefinition of course completion that invalidates the baseline comparison and the mislabeling of 'Launch 3 HRIS integrations' as an outcome.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Catches both the redefined completion metric and the output-labelled-as-outcome integrations KR, and explains the implications for interpreting scores.

Key results are outcomes, not outputRightRight
Haiku 5.5 · API

All proposed Q4 key results are behavioural or business metrics with baselines and targets; shipping work is demoted to supporting initiatives.

GPT-6 Luna · API

All proposed key results are outcome metrics with baselines and targets; no shipping work appears as a KR.

Focuses on the big rockRightRight
Haiku 5.5 · API

The proposal gives each team two outcome KRs tied to activation and usage, explicitly drops output KRs from scoring, and leaves Content's fit problem for separate discussion.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Focuses on three teams with one KR each, implicitly dropping Content and Platform as not directly driving the retention goal.

Shows how the goals add upRightRight
Haiku 5.5 · API

The 'How the teams connect to the goal' section links each KR to the company NRR/churn goals, explaining that Learner app addresses 'didn’t use it' churn, Admin targets 14‑day activation, and Growth shifts to usage‑linked expansion.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Links each team KR to the company retention/expansion goal, acknowledges data gaps, and suggests how to verify the connection.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated. Where our PM checked the graders by hand, they agreed on 100% of 12 checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT97.7100.02None
2GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI97.7100.02None
3Haiku 5.5withAPI95.595.82None
4Sonnet 5.5withAPI90.991.72None
5GPT-6 LunawithAPI88.679.22None
6Opus 5.5withClaude93.279.22None
7Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI65.962.52None
8Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini61.445.82None

What you get for the cost

Haiku 5.5 · API scores within 3 points of GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT at about a thirtieth of the cost.

Task score against relative cost for each setup. The table below has the same figures.4050607080901001×3×10×30×100×Cost per output, relative to the cheapest setup (log scale) →↑ Task scoreGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT: task score 99, 83× the cheapestGPT-6.1 Sol · API: task score 99, 16× the cheapestHaiku 5.5 · API: task score 96, 2.1× the cheapestSonnet 5.5 · API: task score 92, 44× the cheapestGPT-6 Luna · API: task score 82, the cheapestOpus 5.5 · Claude: task score 82, 78× the cheapestGemini 3.8 Flash · API: task score 61, 13× the cheapestGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini: task score 51, 2.1× the cheapestGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPTGPT-6.1 Sol · APIHaiku 5.5 · APISonnet 5.5 · APIGPT-6 Luna · APIOpus 5.5 · ClaudeGemini 3.8 Flash · APIGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini
Best valueNobody beats these on both score and cost
Task score and relative cost by setup
SetupTask scoreRelative cost (cheapest = 1)
GPT-6 Luna · API821.0×
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini512.1×
Haiku 5.5 · API962.1×
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API6113×
GPT-6.1 Sol · API9916×
Sonnet 5.5 · API9244×
Opus 5.5 · Claude8278×
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT9983×

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

About the task

The PM job

Setting a team's goals for the quarter.

Why it matters

Most OKRs are task lists in disguise. Teams ship everything on them and nothing moves.

What good looks like

  • Key results are outcomes, not things to ship
  • Few enough to focus on
  • Each team's goals visibly add up to the company's
  • Kept apart from performance ratings

Deliberately not measured

  • OKR software or formatting
Capability tested

Goal setting

The failure we’re looking for

A task list dressed up as key results

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review