Humanity’s Last PRD
Latest drop: Haiku 5.5 · 8 Oct
Tasks / Strategy

Call product-market fit

Can the model tell real product-market fit from a blended survey, a launch spike or a flattering metric, and say where to scale?

Task type v1.1 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 16 graded outputs by 8 models. 50% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Respects explicit constraints100% pass
    The output is a memo addressed to Sam, within 1,200 words, and respects the form and length requirements.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · 38%, and the retention that isn't
  2. Finds who it's a must-have for100% pass
    It identifies recruiters as the must-have segment, noting what they value (candidate summaries, ATS scorecards, focus on the candidate) and builds the plan around them.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · 38%, and the retention that isn't
  3. Spots false fit100% pass
    The memo calls out the August promotional MRR spike, the active-definition change, and the early erosion as misleading signs of fit.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · 38%, and the retention that isn't

Where it slips

  1. Uses the supplied evidence correctly28% pass
    The claim that the cohort jumps line up with the August 3 definition change is not supported; the jumps occur in the week of July 27–August 2, one week before the change, so the evidence is misused.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · 38%, and the retention that isn't
  2. Gets the base of every number right44% pass
    The month-6 retention percentages are computed from incorrect sums and denominators, so the base is wrong.
    GPT-6 Luna · API · Do we have fit, or a spike?
  3. Unpicks the 38%53% pass
    It separates by persona but does not break down the 38% by tenure into ~11% very disappointed for users under two weeks and ~47% for established users, which the criterion explicitly requires.
    Haiku 5.5 · API · 38%, and the retention that isn't

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

  1. Judges fit by retention, not sign-ups

    Does the call on product-market fit rest on whether retention curves flatten, segment by segment, rather than on sign-ups, revenue growth or a survey alone?

    Passes when Reads retention by segment from the data and lets it decide where fit exists, with the survey as supporting evidence.

    Todd JacksonLenny’s PodcastSean EllisLenny’s Podcast

  2. Finds who it's a must-have for

    Does the output profile the users who would be very disappointed without the product, and aim the plan at them and at the users closest to them?

    Passes when Names the segment or persona where the product is a must-have, what they value, and builds the plan around them.

    Rahul VohraLenny’s Podcast

  3. Spots false fit

    Does the output catch evidence that looks like fit but isn't, such as revenue won through custom work, a launch spike, a promotion, or a metric whose definition changed?

    Passes when Names each piece of flattering evidence in the material and explains why it isn't fit.

    Product and growth leadersOn Lenny’s Podcast

  4. Doesn't scale before fit

    Does the recommendation avoid pouring spend or headcount into segments that haven't shown fit, and say what would justify scaling them later?

    Passes when Scales only where fit is shown, and sets the evidence that would justify widening.

    Todd JacksonLenny’s Podcast

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · Gets the base of every number right · and 3 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're the VP Product at Minutely. Our CEO, Sam Okafor, plans to send the draft investor update below next week to open our Series A, and to hire six account executives with the money. Sam has asked you to check it. Write a memo for Sam of no more than 1,200 words: do we have product-market fit, and for whom; what in the draft is right and what isn't; what we should tell investors instead; and where the new money should go. Everything we have is attached. The files are as the teams exported them.

What the model was given8 items: About Minutely, draft_investor_update.md, pmf_survey.csv (in-app survey, September), weekly_active_by_cohort.csv (product analytics dashboard export), core_action_by_persona.csv (share of each sign-up month who shared a summary in week 4 and week 8), mrr.csv, analytics_changelog.md, market_notes.md
About MinutelyAI meeting notes: joins your calls, writes the summary, and pushes it to your tools. Free plan, Pro ($18 per user per month) and Team ($30). 41,000 weekly active users.
draft_investor_update.md5 lines · Download
# Draft investor update (CEO)

We've hit product-market fit. 38% of users say they'd be very disappointed without Minutely, right at the 40% bar, and retention is improving fast: our newest cohorts are far stickier than June's. MRR grew 28% in August.

Plan for the round: hire six account executives to sell Team plans into enterprise engineering organisations, where the seat counts are biggest.
pmf_survey.csv (in-app survey, September)response_id,persona,plan,weeks_active,answer,would_use_instead,what_they_value M2001,Engineer,Free,14,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Standup summaries M2002,Recruiter,Pro,5,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2003,Sales,Free,8,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2004,Recruiter,Free,1,not disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2005,Founder,Team,12,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Nice to have M2006,Recruiter,Pro,10,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2007,Recruiter,Free,1,not disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2008,Sales,Pro,6,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2009,Founder,Free,7,somewhat disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Board meeting summaries M2010,Recruiter,Team,10,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2011,Recruiter,Team,21,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,I can focus on the candidate M2012,Recruiter,Pro,4,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2013,Engineer,Pro,18,somewhat disappointed,I don't really need notes,Standup summaries M2014,Recruiter,Pro,3,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Scorecards fill themselves M2015,Sales,Pro,4,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2016,Recruiter,Team,6,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2017,Founder,Pro,13,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Board meeting summaries M2018,Recruiter,Free,18,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2019,Recruiter,Team,15,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2020,Recruiter,Free,21,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2021,Engineer,Free,18,very disappointed,Zoom's notes,Not much M2022,Sales,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2023,Engineer,Free,5,very disappointed,Zoom's notes,Not much M2024,Recruiter,Pro,20,somewhat disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2025,Recruiter,Pro,10,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,I can focus on the candidate M2026,Sales,Team,14,not disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2027,Sales,Free,12,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2028,Recruiter,Team,12,somewhat disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2029,Recruiter,Pro,3,somewhat disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Scorecards fill themselves M2030,Founder,Pro,8,very disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Investor call notes M2031,Recruiter,Free,18,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2032,Recruiter,Team,16,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2033,Founder,Pro,20,somewhat disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Board meeting summaries M2034,Recruiter,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2035,Sales,Team,6,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2036,Engineer,Pro,13,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Not much M2037,Recruiter,Free,19,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2038,Recruiter,Pro,5,somewhat disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2039,Founder,Team,21,somewhat disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Board meeting summaries M2040,Recruiter,Pro,3,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Scorecards fill themselves M2041,Sales,Pro,2,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2042,Sales,Pro,8,very disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2043,Recruiter,Free,11,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,I can focus on the candidate M2044,Sales,Pro,20,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2045,Sales,Pro,5,not disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2046,Founder,Free,1,not disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Investor call notes M2047,Sales,Team,2,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2048,Engineer,Team,15,somewhat disappointed,I don't really need notes,Standup summaries M2049,Sales,Team,4,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2050,Sales,Free,5,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2051,Sales,Pro,13,not disappointed,Back to typing notes,Saves an hour a day M2052,Recruiter,Pro,5,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2053,Founder,Free,12,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Investor call notes M2054,Founder,Pro,14,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Board meeting summaries M2055,Recruiter,Free,0,not disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2056,Recruiter,Team,4,somewhat disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2057,Founder,Pro,16,very disappointed,Otter,Investor call notes M2058,Recruiter,Pro,17,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Scorecards fill themselves M2059,Engineer,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Nothing,Standup summaries M2060,Sales,Team,3,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2061,Engineer,Pro,18,somewhat disappointed,Nothing,Occasionally useful M2062,Founder,Free,10,very disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Board meeting summaries M2063,Sales,Free,0,not disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2064,Recruiter,Pro,18,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2065,Recruiter,Free,19,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2066,Founder,Free,19,very disappointed,Zoom's notes,Board meeting summaries M2067,Sales,Pro,9,not disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2068,Founder,Team,6,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Nice to have M2069,Sales,Free,11,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2070,Sales,Pro,16,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Saves an hour a day M2071,Sales,Free,14,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2072,Founder,Pro,17,very disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Board meeting summaries M2073,Sales,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2074,Engineer,Pro,18,very disappointed,Nothing,Standup summaries M2075,Sales,Free,1,not disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2076,Recruiter,Free,17,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2077,Recruiter,Free,10,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2078,Engineer,Free,0,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Standup summaries M2079,Founder,Pro,10,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Board meeting summaries M2080,Recruiter,Free,1,not disappointed,Back to typing notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2081,Recruiter,Free,7,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2082,Founder,Pro,17,very disappointed,Otter,Board meeting summaries M2083,Engineer,Team,12,somewhat disappointed,I don't really need notes,Standup summaries M2084,Sales,Pro,15,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Saves an hour a day M2085,Recruiter,Free,0,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2086,Sales,Pro,21,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Saves an hour a day M2087,Founder,Pro,13,very disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2088,Engineer,Free,20,very disappointed,Nothing,Not much M2089,Recruiter,Free,0,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,I can focus on the candidate M2090,Sales,Team,5,very disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2091,Engineer,Pro,6,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Not much M2092,Recruiter,Free,18,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2093,Sales,Pro,6,somewhat disappointed,Gong,CRM notes after every call M2094,Recruiter,Pro,4,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2095,Sales,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2096,Recruiter,Free,15,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2097,Recruiter,Pro,2,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2098,Engineer,Pro,13,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Standup summaries M2099,Recruiter,Pro,5,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2100,Recruiter,Pro,16,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,I can focus on the candidate M2101,Sales,Pro,19,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Saves an hour a day M2102,Sales,Free,1,very disappointed,Gong,CRM notes after every call M2103,Engineer,Pro,4,somewhat disappointed,Nothing,Standup summaries M2104,Recruiter,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Our ATS notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2105,Founder,Free,0,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Investor call notes M2106,Recruiter,Team,16,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,I can focus on the candidate M2107,Sales,Free,14,very disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2108,Sales,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2109,Engineer,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Nothing,Not much M2110,Founder,Team,19,not disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Nice to have M2111,Sales,Pro,4,not disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2112,Sales,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2113,Sales,Pro,10,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2114,Engineer,Team,14,somewhat disappointed,Nothing,Not much M2115,Founder,Pro,17,not disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Nice to have M2116,Engineer,Free,0,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Not much M2117,Founder,Free,0,not disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2118,Founder,Pro,5,very disappointed,Zoom's notes,Nice to have M2119,Sales,Free,1,not disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2120,Engineer,Pro,13,somewhat disappointed,I don't really need notes,Not much M2121,Recruiter,Team,6,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2122,Sales,Pro,8,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2123,Engineer,Pro,3,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Standup summaries M2124,Recruiter,Team,12,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,I can focus on the candidate M2125,Recruiter,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2126,Sales,Team,21,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2127,Recruiter,Pro,17,not disappointed,Our ATS notes,I can focus on the candidate M2128,Sales,Pro,15,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2129,Sales,Team,7,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2130,Sales,Free,10,very disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2131,Engineer,Free,0,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Occasionally useful M2132,Recruiter,Team,11,somewhat disappointed,Our ATS notes,I can focus on the candidate M2133,Recruiter,Pro,5,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2134,Engineer,Pro,4,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Standup summaries M2135,Founder,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Otter,Investor call notes M2136,Recruiter,Free,0,not disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2137,Sales,Free,13,very disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2138,Recruiter,Pro,4,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Scorecards fill themselves M2139,Recruiter,Free,13,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2140,Sales,Team,11,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2141,Engineer,Pro,7,not disappointed,Nothing,Standup summaries M2142,Engineer,Free,7,somewhat disappointed,Nothing,Not much M2143,Engineer,Free,0,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Standup summaries M2144,Founder,Pro,8,not disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2145,Sales,Free,6,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2146,Engineer,Free,2,somewhat disappointed,I don't really need notes,Not much M2147,Sales,Pro,8,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2148,Recruiter,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2149,Sales,Pro,2,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2150,Recruiter,Pro,5,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2151,Founder,Free,1,not disappointed,Otter,Board meeting summaries M2152,Recruiter,Pro,18,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Scorecards fill themselves M2153,Sales,Pro,20,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2154,Recruiter,Pro,20,somewhat disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2155,Engineer,Free,0,not disappointed,Nothing,Standup summaries M2156,Recruiter,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2157,Engineer,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Standup summaries M2158,Founder,Free,1,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Board meeting summaries M2159,Sales,Pro,6,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2160,Engineer,Free,16,somewhat disappointed,I don't really need notes,Occasionally useful M2161,Founder,Free,10,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Investor call notes M2162,Sales,Free,1,not disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2163,Founder,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Investor call notes M2164,Engineer,Team,3,somewhat disappointed,Nothing,Standup summaries M2165,Recruiter,Pro,7,not disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Scorecards fill themselves M2166,Recruiter,Pro,13,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2167,Engineer,Team,5,very disappointed,Zoom's notes,Not much M2168,Sales,Team,18,not disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2169,Sales,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2170,Sales,Free,10,very disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2171,Sales,Pro,17,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2172,Founder,Pro,7,somewhat disappointed,Otter,Board meeting summaries M2173,Founder,Free,7,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Investor call notes M2174,Founder,Team,16,very disappointed,Zoom's notes,Investor call notes M2175,Sales,Free,0,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2176,Sales,Pro,6,very disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2177,Recruiter,Pro,9,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2178,Founder,Free,14,somewhat disappointed,Otter,Board meeting summaries M2179,Recruiter,Pro,12,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2180,Sales,Pro,10,very disappointed,Gong,CRM notes after every call M2181,Founder,Team,7,somewhat disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2182,Engineer,Free,20,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Not much M2183,Engineer,Free,1,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Not much M2184,Sales,Pro,9,not disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2185,Recruiter,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Scorecards fill themselves M2186,Founder,Pro,6,very disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Investor call notes M2187,Engineer,Pro,11,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Standup summaries M2188,Sales,Pro,11,very disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2189,Founder,Free,16,somewhat disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Nice to have M2190,Recruiter,Pro,4,somewhat disappointed,Our ATS notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2191,Founder,Pro,5,somewhat disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Nice to have M2192,Recruiter,Pro,4,somewhat disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Scorecards fill themselves M2193,Sales,Free,0,very disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2194,Founder,Team,12,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Nice to have M2195,Sales,Free,4,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2196,Sales,Pro,14,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Saves an hour a day M2197,Founder,Free,1,not disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Nice to have M2198,Founder,Pro,12,very disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2199,Recruiter,Free,15,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2200,Founder,Free,3,very disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Nice to have M2201,Recruiter,Team,13,not disappointed,Our ATS notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2202,Recruiter,Free,1,not disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2203,Recruiter,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2204,Recruiter,Team,3,somewhat disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2205,Sales,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2206,Sales,Pro,2,not disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2207,Founder,Team,3,not disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Board meeting summaries M2208,Founder,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2209,Founder,Free,1,very disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Nice to have M2210,Sales,Pro,14,not disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2211,Sales,Team,5,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2212,Recruiter,Team,8,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2213,Recruiter,Pro,9,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2214,Engineer,Team,2,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Occasionally useful M2215,Sales,Pro,2,very disappointed,Gong,CRM notes after every call M2216,Sales,Free,1,not disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2217,Founder,Free,16,somewhat disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2218,Engineer,Free,0,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Occasionally useful M2219,Founder,Free,1,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Nice to have M2220,Recruiter,Team,7,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2221,Sales,Team,13,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2222,Founder,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Investor call notes M2223,Founder,Free,6,very disappointed,Otter,Board meeting summaries M2224,Engineer,Pro,13,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Standup summaries M2225,Recruiter,Free,13,not disappointed,Our ATS notes,I can focus on the candidate M2226,Engineer,Pro,18,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Not much M2227,Founder,Free,5,very disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2228,Sales,Pro,4,not disappointed,Gong,CRM notes after every call M2229,Engineer,Pro,9,very disappointed,Zoom's notes,Standup summaries M2230,Sales,Pro,15,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2231,Founder,Team,21,very disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Nice to have M2232,Founder,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Nice to have M2233,Recruiter,Free,6,somewhat disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2234,Recruiter,Free,15,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2235,Sales,Pro,21,somewhat disappointed,Gong,CRM notes after every call M2236,Founder,Team,4,somewhat disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2237,Recruiter,Free,20,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2238,Recruiter,Pro,8,not disappointed,Back to typing notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2239,Sales,Free,2,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2240,Recruiter,Pro,4,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2241,Founder,Pro,13,somewhat disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2242,Recruiter,Team,18,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2243,Founder,Free,0,very disappointed,Otter,Investor call notes M2244,Founder,Free,10,very disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2245,Sales,Free,5,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2246,Founder,Team,18,very disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Board meeting summaries M2247,Recruiter,Free,17,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2248,Recruiter,Pro,10,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2249,Sales,Free,1,not disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2250,Recruiter,Free,1,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2251,Engineer,Free,0,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Not much M2252,Sales,Pro,21,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2253,Sales,Free,0,not disappointed,Back to typing notes,Saves an hour a day M2254,Sales,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2255,Engineer,Pro,5,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Not much M2256,Sales,Pro,2,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2257,Sales,Free,2,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2258,Sales,Pro,8,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2259,Sales,Free,1,not disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2260,Founder,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Investor call notes M2261,Sales,Free,0,not disappointed,Gong,CRM notes after every call M2262,Sales,Pro,18,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2263,Founder,Free,18,somewhat disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Investor call notes M2264,Recruiter,Pro,4,somewhat disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2265,Engineer,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Occasionally useful M2266,Sales,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2267,Engineer,Free,18,very disappointed,Nothing,Standup summaries M2268,Recruiter,Free,10,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2269,Sales,Free,1,not disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2270,Sales,Pro,3,not disappointed,Gong,CRM notes after every call M2271,Sales,Pro,7,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2272,Engineer,Free,0,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Occasionally useful M2273,Founder,Free,1,not disappointed,Otter,Board meeting summaries M2274,Founder,Free,1,not disappointed,Otter,Investor call notes M2275,Sales,Team,19,very disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2276,Sales,Pro,6,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2277,Recruiter,Pro,7,not disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2278,Sales,Free,0,not disappointed,Back to typing notes,Saves an hour a day M2279,Sales,Free,1,not disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2280,Recruiter,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2281,Recruiter,Team,3,somewhat disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2282,Engineer,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Standup summaries M2283,Sales,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2284,Founder,Free,0,not disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2285,Sales,Pro,5,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2286,Sales,Pro,16,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2287,Sales,Pro,18,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,Saves an hour a day M2288,Founder,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Investor call notes M2289,Engineer,Free,1,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Not much M2290,Sales,Team,21,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2291,Engineer,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Nothing,Not much M2292,Sales,Pro,11,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2293,Founder,Pro,19,somewhat disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2294,Engineer,Pro,21,somewhat disappointed,I don't really need notes,Not much M2295,Sales,Free,19,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2296,Sales,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2297,Engineer,Pro,8,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Not much M2298,Sales,Free,1,not disappointed,Gong,CRM notes after every call M2299,Sales,Team,7,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2300,Founder,Team,9,very disappointed,Zoom's notes,Nice to have M2301,Engineer,Pro,21,very disappointed,Nothing,Not much M2302,Engineer,Free,7,very disappointed,Zoom's notes,Standup summaries M2303,Recruiter,Free,1,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2304,Sales,Free,0,not disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2305,Recruiter,Free,8,not disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2306,Sales,Pro,10,not disappointed,Back to typing notes,Saves an hour a day M2307,Recruiter,Pro,2,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,I can focus on the candidate M2308,Recruiter,Pro,13,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Scorecards fill themselves M2309,Recruiter,Pro,5,not disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2310,Sales,Team,21,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2311,Engineer,Pro,15,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Occasionally useful M2312,Sales,Pro,7,somewhat disappointed,Back to typing notes,Saves an hour a day M2313,Engineer,Pro,2,very disappointed,Zoom's notes,Occasionally useful M2314,Engineer,Team,12,not disappointed,Zoom's notes,Not much M2315,Founder,Free,15,very disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Investor call notes M2316,Founder,Free,10,very disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Nice to have M2317,Sales,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2318,Sales,Pro,17,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2319,Engineer,Free,12,somewhat disappointed,I don't really need notes,Standup summaries M2320,Sales,Free,16,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2321,Engineer,Pro,12,very disappointed,Nothing,Not much M2322,Recruiter,Team,7,somewhat disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2323,Engineer,Pro,3,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Occasionally useful M2324,Sales,Pro,8,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2325,Engineer,Pro,15,not disappointed,Nothing,Not much M2326,Sales,Team,14,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Follow-up emails drafted M2327,Founder,Team,21,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Investor call notes M2328,Sales,Team,14,very disappointed,Gong,CRM notes after every call M2329,Sales,Free,9,very disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2330,Founder,Free,14,not disappointed,Otter,Nice to have M2331,Sales,Pro,19,somewhat disappointed,Gong,Saves an hour a day M2332,Engineer,Pro,4,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Not much M2333,Sales,Free,0,not disappointed,Back to typing notes,Saves an hour a day M2334,Sales,Pro,7,very disappointed,Our CRM's notes,Saves an hour a day M2335,Sales,Free,9,somewhat disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2336,Engineer,Free,1,not disappointed,Nothing,Not much M2337,Sales,Free,3,not disappointed,Our CRM's notes,CRM notes after every call M2338,Founder,Free,4,very disappointed,Zoom's notes,Board meeting summaries M2339,Engineer,Pro,18,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Occasionally useful M2340,Engineer,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Not much M2341,Recruiter,Free,13,very disappointed,Our ATS notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2342,Sales,Team,5,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,CRM notes after every call M2343,Engineer,Team,4,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Not much M2344,Founder,Pro,5,very disappointed,Zoom's notes,Nice to have M2345,Founder,Pro,15,somewhat disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Investor call notes M2346,Founder,Team,4,somewhat disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Investor call notes M2347,Engineer,Free,1,very disappointed,I don't really need notes,Not much M2348,Recruiter,Pro,11,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Scorecards fill themselves M2349,Founder,Free,21,not disappointed,"Nothing, I'd manage",Board meeting summaries M2350,Recruiter,Free,0,not disappointed,Our ATS notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2351,Recruiter,Pro,17,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2352,Recruiter,Pro,12,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,I can focus on the candidate M2353,Sales,Free,5,not disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2354,Engineer,Free,1,not disappointed,I don't really need notes,Standup summaries M2355,Founder,Pro,4,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Nice to have M2356,Sales,Free,13,very disappointed,Gong,Follow-up emails drafted M2357,Recruiter,Free,0,very disappointed,Back to typing notes,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2358,Recruiter,Team,8,very disappointed,Nothing does this as well,Candidate summaries straight into our ATS M2359,Founder,Free,8,not disappointed,Otter,Investor call notes M2360,Founder,Free,0,somewhat disappointed,Zoom's notes,Board meeting summaries
weekly_active_by_cohort.csv (product analytics dashboard export)cohort_week_starting,signups,week_1_active_pct,week_2_active_pct,week_3_active_pct,week_4_active_pct,week_5_active_pct,week_6_active_pct,week_7_active_pct,week_8_active_pct,week_9_active_pct,week_10_active_pct,week_11_active_pct,week_12_active_pct 2026-06-01,1491,62.5,47.4,39.6,35.5,30.9,28.7,27.3,25.7,38.6,39.4,38.2,38.5 2026-06-08,1710,62.5,48.4,40.0,35.1,30.6,28.6,27.4,39.6,39.2,39.5,38.5,38.1 2026-06-15,1424,62.4,48.1,40.6,34.8,30.7,28.9,40.7,39.9,38.5,39.1,37.9,38.1 2026-06-22,1546,61.7,48.3,39.7,34.8,31.1,42.5,40.5,39.7,39.0,38.8,38.3,37.7 2026-06-29,1672,62.6,48.1,39.4,35.0,44.5,42.5,41.1,40.5,38.8,38.8,37.4,38.2 2026-07-06,1773,61.8,48.4,39.9,48.7,44.6,43.4,40.9,40.6,39.1,38.6,37.4,38.2 2026-07-13,1638,61.8,48.5,54.3,49.3,45.3,43.4,40.7,40.5,38.7,38.9,38.4,37.9 2026-07-20,1831,62.3,61.9,54.1,49.4,44.9,43.1,41.0,40.4,38.4,38.9,38.4, 2026-07-27,1522,76.2,62.4,54.3,48.5,44.8,43.4,41.4,40.4,39.4,38.8,, 2026-08-03,1687,75.7,61.8,54.1,49.1,45.1,42.9,40.8,40.0,38.6,,, 2026-08-10,1769,76.4,62.2,53.7,48.4,45.5,43.2,41.0,39.4,,,, 2026-08-17,1731,75.6,61.6,53.9,48.5,44.4,43.4,41.5,,,,, 2026-08-24,1453,76.1,62.3,54.3,49.6,44.9,43.0,,,,,, 2026-08-31,1603,76.5,61.6,54.1,48.5,45.4,,,,,,, 2026-09-07,1765,66.5,54.2,48.3,44.0,,,,,,,, 2026-09-14,1652,67.2,54.5,47.7,,,,,,,,,
core_action_by_persona.csv (share of each sign-up month who shared a summary in week 4 and week 8)persona,signup_month,week_4_shared_a_summary_pct,week_8_shared_a_summary_pct Recruiter,2026-06,66,58 Recruiter,2026-07,65,57 Recruiter,2026-08,66,58 Recruiter,2026-09,57, Sales,2026-06,50,41 Sales,2026-07,49,40 Sales,2026-08,51,42 Sales,2026-09,44, Founder,2026-06,39,30 Founder,2026-07,38,29 Founder,2026-08,40,31 Founder,2026-09,34, Engineer,2026-06,19,13 Engineer,2026-07,18,12 Engineer,2026-08,18,12 Engineer,2026-09,15,
mrr.csv4 rows · Download
month,mrr_usd,new_mrr_usd,churned_mrr_usd,note
2026-06,182000,21000,7400,
2026-07,196000,22100,8100,
2026-08,251000,63800,8800,"Team plan annual prepay promotion, 40% off, ran 1-31 Aug"
2026-09,262000,21500,10500,
analytics_changelog.md5 lines · Download
# Analytics changelog

- 2026-07-14: Added persona to sign-up (self-reported).
- 2026-08-03: "Active user" now includes opening the daily summary email, as well as recording, opening or sharing a summary in the app. Requested by Growth so email engagement counts.
- 2026-09-01: Added "shared a summary" as a tracked core action; backfilled to June from event logs.
market_notes.md5 lines · Download
# Market notes (from the CEO's chief of staff)

- 8 Sep 2026: Zoom announced free AI meeting notes for every paid Zoom plan.
- Two Team-plan customers asked in September whether they still need us "now that Zoom does this".
- Our closest paid competitors (Otter, Fathom) haven't changed pricing.
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Says Minutely has fit with recruiters and probably sales teams, not with everyone, and that the draft overstates it in three ways. (1) The survey: 38% is a blend that includes 90 people who've used Minutely for under two weeks (11% very disappointed); among established users it's 47%, and by persona 62% of recruiters and 49% of sales users against 24% of engineers. The case for fit is stronger and narrower than the draft says. (2) Retention isn't 'improving fast': from 3 August 'active' includes opening the summary email, so every cohort's curve jumps about 14 points that week, and August cohorts only look stickier because of the definition. On the consistent core action (shared a summary), week-8 retention is flat across June to August for each persona, and September cohorts' week-4 retention fell (recruiters 66 to 57, sales 51 to 44) after Zoom launched free notes on 8 September: an early erosion signal the draft ignores. (3) August's 28% MRR growth is mostly the Team annual prepay promotion at 40% off (new MRR $63,800 against about $21,500 in a normal month), not demand. Recommends not hiring AEs to sell into enterprise engineering, the persona with the weakest fit and the most exposure to Zoom; put the money into recruiters and sales teams (integrations with ATS and CRM, where value is specific). Rewrites the investor message honestly (strong fit in a named segment, with the consistent retention numbers) and fixes the active-user definition.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Endorses sending the draft's claim that retention is improving fast
  • Recommends hiring the six AEs to sell into enterprise engineering organisations
Task

Staff-level · v1.0

The outputs

8 setups answered this brief.

GPT-6 AstraChatGPT98Usable with a quick editGPT-6.1 SolAPI85Needs more workHaiku 5.5API85Usable with a quick editOpus 5.5Claude80Usable with a quick editGPT-6 LunaAPI78Needs more workSonnet 5.5API78Usable with a quick editGemini 3.8 FlashAPI58Needs more workGemini 3.5 Flash-LiteGemini50Needs more work
GPT-6 AstraChatGPT

Usable with a quick edit14 of 14 checks passed

The memo is complete, thoroughly evidence-based, and includes a redrafted investor passage; it could be sent with only light wording edits.

Output

To: Sam Okafor From: VP Product Subject: Series A: fund the recruiting opportunity, not an enterprise-engineering sales rollout

Recommendation

Do not send the draft unchanged or commit to six account executives.

We have credible, provisional product-market fit among recruiters, especially around turning candidate conversations into ATS-ready summaries and scorecards. Sales is a promising secondary segment. We do not have evidence of broad PMF, and engineering—the proposed sales target—has our weakest behavioral retention.

Raise to deepen and defend the recruiting workflow, establish reliable measurement, and prove repeatable acquisition before scaling sales.

1. Do we have PMF, and for whom?

The survey’s overall result is correctly calculated: 137 of 360 respondents, or 38.1%, would be very disappointed without Minutely. But it mixes newly arrived users with experienced users and obscures substantial differences between personas.

Using at least two weeks active as a transparent experience screen:

PersonaVery disappointed / eligible respondentsShareWeek-8 summary sharing, June–August cohorts
------:---:---:
Recruiter50/8062.5%57–58%
Sales44/9048.9%40–42%
Founder22/5540.0%29–31%
Engineer11/4524.4%12–13%
Overall127/27047.0%—

This screen is not a license to replace an inconvenient headline with a favorable one. Report both populations. The 40% benchmark is a diagnostic, not a certification; an in-app survey also excludes many people who have already left. We lack response rates, population weighting, and segment-level commercial outcomes.

Recruiters have the strongest triangulation: high expressed dependence, substantially higher repeat core-action usage, and a coherent job to be done. They value focusing on candidates while summaries and scorecards reach the ATS. Their alternatives include manual note-taking, existing ATS notes, or “nothing does this as well.” Our proposed target customer is therefore recruiters with recurring candidate interviews and ATS documentation needs—not yet a proven company-size or enterprise segment.

There are cautions even here. Among recruiters with 2–7 weeks active, 15/30 are very disappointed, versus 35/50 with eight or more weeks. That may reflect learning, survivor selection, or changing acquisition quality; it is not evidence that recent users are becoming happier.

Sales merits bounded experimentation. Founders’ threshold-level survey score is less compelling alongside lower sharing retention and frequent “nice to have” or “I’d manage” responses. Engineers offer neither strong dependence nor sustained core usage. Seat-count potential cannot compensate for weak need.

2. What is right—and wrong—in the draft?

“We’ve hit product-market fit”

Too broad. “38% is right at the 40% bar” is also misleading: it is below the heuristic, and proximity would not establish PMF anyway. The stronger, defensible claim is segment-specific, with commercial validation still outstanding.

“Our newest cohorts are far stickier than June’s”

The export does not support this interpretation.

On August 3, “active” expanded to include opening the daily summary email. The apparent improvement moves diagonally across cohorts: June cohorts jump at later ages, July cohorts at earlier ages. That is consistent with a calendar-time measurement change, not a succession of better products or better-retained signup cohorts.

The more meaningful sharing measure is essentially flat from June through August for every persona. September week-4 sharing is lower: recruiters fall from 66% to 57%, sales from 51% to 44%, founders from 40% to 34%, and engineers from 18% to 15%, compared with August. September week-8 results are unavailable.

Before interpreting September as a true decline, verify the export date and cohort eligibility. We also need to audit the backfill and how pre-July-14 signups received personas. Blank future observations are not zero retention. Recompute all cohorts under one activity definition and compare equal ages.

The reported 41,000 WAU also needs its definition disclosed; it should not be presented as 41,000 people performing the core workflow without verification.

“MRR grew 28% in August”

Correct: $196,000 to $251,000 is 28.1%. But August coincided with a 40%-off Team annual-prepay promotion. New MRR jumped to $63,800, then returned to $21,500 in September. September MRR reached $262,000, growth of 4.4%.

This is genuine reported growth, not yet evidence of repeatable full-price demand. Verify that annual contracts are normalized monthly at their actual discounted recurring value, rather than treating cash collected as MRR. We lack segment revenue, expansion/contraction detail, acquisition costs, margins, and renewal evidence. Rising churn dollars alone do not establish a worsening churn rate.

Zoom’s September 8 announcement and two customer questions make substitution risk tangible, though they do not prove the cause of September’s weaker usage.

3. What we should tell investors instead

> Minutely has 41,000 reported weekly active users and $262,000 in September MRR. Our strongest evidence of product-market fit is in recruiting: 50 of 80 surveyed recruiters with at least two weeks active would be very disappointed without Minutely, and 57–58% of June–August recruiter signup cohorts shared a summary in week eight. > > We are narrowing our focus to candidate-interview documentation and ATS workflows. August MRR grew 28%, supported by a discounted annual-plan promotion; September growth was 4.4%. We are correcting an activity-definition discontinuity and investigating weaker September core-action usage. This round will deepen differentiated recruiting workflows and establish repeatable, economically sound distribution before scaling sales.

Keep the supporting cohort and revenue caveats in the diligence materials, not hidden behind the headline.

4. Where the new money should go

Proposed allocation, subject to round size and runway:

  • 55%: Recruiting product and engineering. Prioritize reliable ATS delivery, useful scorecards, candidate-summary accuracy, and onboarding to a first successful interview-to-ATS workflow. Address consent, privacy, and administrative requirements validated by recruiting customers. Compete on completed workflow, not generic notes.
  • 15%: Measurement and customer research. Establish consistent event definitions, segment-level activation and paid retention, promotional versus full-price cohorts, and interviews with retained, churned, and Zoom-questioning customers.
  • 20%: Focused distribution. Founder-led recruiting sales, targeted acquisition experiments, and at most one sales/customer-success generalist initially. Test buyer, packaging, willingness to pay, sales cycle, and implementation burden.
  • 10%: Reserve for validated bottlenecks.

Release further sales hiring only after multiple fully matured recruiting cohorts demonstrate durable core usage and paid retention, and acquisition tests show repeatable full-price wins with acceptable margin and payback. Set those economic gates against the financing plan.

The investment thesis should be a differentiated recruiting workflow with evidence of dependence—not a generic meeting-notes product scaled into our least-engaged persona.

Grades and run details

Decision model 96 · LLM judge 100
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly28%
  • passAddresses the actual decision98%
  • passRespects explicit constraints52%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty98%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims60%
  • passProduces the required deliverable84%
  • passCatches the redefined metric100%
  • passUnpicks the 38%88%
  • passSees the early erosion74%
  • partialJudges fit by retention, not sign-ups31%
  • passGets the base of every number right11%
  • passFinds who it's a must-have for100%
  • passSpots false fit97%
  • passDoesn't scale before fit99%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
1.5 min
Submitted
5 Oct 2026
Opus 5.5Claude

Usable with a quick edit11 of 14 checks passed

The memo is well-reasoned and actionable; the unsupported churn-rate estimate can be removed with a quick edit, and no other evidence needs re-checking.

Output

Memo: Series A investor update

To: Sam Okafor From: VP Product Re: Draft investor update and use of funds

Bottom line

We have product-market fit with recruiters. We have it plausibly with salespeople. We don't have it with founders, and we're furthest from it with engineers. Two of the draft's three metrics would mislead investors, and both problems would surface in diligence. The hiring plan aims six AEs at our weakest segment, the one most exposed to Zoom's free notes. I recommend a recruiting-led round story and a recruiting-led use of funds.

1. Do we have product-market fit, and for whom?

The survey's 38% is accurate: 137 of 360 respondents said "very disappointed." But the blended number hides the answer. The standard Ellis method also excludes people who have barely used the product, and 90 of our respondents were in their first week or two.

PersonaRespondentsVery disappointed (all)Very disappointed (2+ weeks active)Shared a summary in week 8 (Aug sign-ups)What they'd use instead
Recruiter10054%63% (50/80)58%"Nothing does this as well", typing, ATS notes. None name Zoom
Sales12039%49% (44/90)42%Gong, CRM notes
Founder7532%40% (22/55)31%"Nothing, I'd manage", Zoom, Otter. Value: "nice to have"
Engineer6518%24% (11/45)12%"Don't really need notes"; ~1 in 3 name Zoom
All36038%47% (127/270)n/an/a

Recruiters are our market. They pass the bar comfortably and keep doing the core action. What they value is workflow, not transcription: scorecards that fill themselves, summaries pushed into the ATS, and focus on the candidate. That is defensible against Zoom.

Sales clears the bar among established users. It is a crowded market, though. Respondents name Gong and their CRM as alternatives, and what they value is generic ("saves an hour a day").

Founders sit at the line, and say themselves that it's nice to have.

Engineers clearly don't need us. Only 1 of 8 engineers on Team plans is "very disappointed."

2. The draft: what's right and what isn't

Right: - 38% is the correct blended figure. - MRR did grow 28% in August ($196k to $251k).

Wrong or misleading:

"Right at the 40% bar." 38% is below the bar. The more important point is that the blended number is the wrong one to lead with. The segment story is far stronger and is the one investors will respect.

"Newest cohorts are far stickier than June's." This is a measurement artefact. - On 3 August we started counting "opened the daily summary email" as active (see the analytics changelog). - Every cohort's curve jumps about 13 points in that exact week. For example, the 1 June cohort goes from 25.7% to 38.6% in its week 9, with no product change. - Measured consistently, nothing improved: - Every cohort from 6 July to 31 August is within about a point of 49% at week 4 and about 40% at week 8. - Summary-sharing, which is unaffected by the definition change, is flat June to August for every persona. Recruiters, for example, are at 66% in week 4 and 58% in week 8 each month. - The same change inflates the 41,000 WAU figure. On the old definition it is probably nearer two-thirds of that. We need to re-run it.

"MRR grew 28% in August." This is a one-off. - About $42k of August's $63.8k new MRR came from the 40%-off Team annual prepay promotion. - Underlying net growth is about 7% (July), about 6–7% (August excluding the promo) and 4.4% (September). - The promo revenue is discounted and pulled forward. Its renewal at full price is unproven. - Churned MRR has risen every month, from $7.4k to $10.5k. Against the base that can actually churn monthly (excluding prepay), September churn is about 5%. - Finance should also confirm the prepay was booked at one-twelfth per month, not as a lump.

Missing: Zoom. Zoom made notes free on paid plans on 8 September. September's numbers soften right after: - Week-1 activity fell from about 76% to about 67%. - Week-4 activity fell from about 48.5% to 44%. - Week-4 sharing fell for every persona. Recruiters dropped 66% to 57%, and engineers 18% to 15%. - Two Team customers have asked whether they still need us.

The September data is partial, but investors will ask about Zoom on the first call. We should address it before they do.

The plan: AEs into enterprise engineering. This targets the segment with: - the weakest pull (18% very disappointed, 12% still sharing summaries in week 8), - the most users who say they don't need notes, and - the most users who already treat Zoom as their alternative.

Large seat counts don't help if the seats don't use the product. We would be paying AEs to sell Team plans that churn at renewal, against a free bundle.

3. What we should tell investors instead

A suggested replacement:

> Minutely has found product-market fit with recruiters. Among recruiters active two weeks or more, 63% would be very disappointed without us, and 58% are still sharing summaries every week two months after sign-up. They value what generic note-takers don't do: scorecards that fill themselves and summaries written straight into the ATS. Not one recruiter we surveyed named Zoom as an alternative. Sales users are our second-strongest segment (49%). > > Retention is stable rather than improving. On a consistent definition, cohorts since July hold about 49% weekly activity at week 4 and about 40% at week 8. MRR is $262k. Underlying growth is 5–7% a month, plus a one-off August uplift from an annual prepay promotion. > > Zoom's free notes, launched in September, will commoditise general meeting notes. Early September cohorts are softer, and we expect the impact to concentrate in our generic use cases. This round funds our move into recruiting workflow, where we already win.

This is a smaller headline but a stronger story. It is specific and defensible, and it shows we understand our own data. The cohort-definition change and the promo would both be found in diligence. Being caught on them would cost far more than a lower headline.

4. Where the new money should go

1. Product depth for recruiting (largest share). - More ATS integrations, and deeper ones. - Structured scorecards and interview-kit support. - Hiring-manager debrief summaries. - Candidate consent and data-retention controls, which recruiting teams' legal reviews will require. - This is our moat against Zoom, and it is engineering-heavy. 2. A recruiting go-to-market, staged. - Start with product-led motions: ATS marketplace listings and partnerships, and recruiting-team trials. - Add one or two AEs selling Team plans to talent-acquisition teams and agencies once we've shown a repeatable conversion path. - Add more AEs only when that path works. Six from day one is premature for any segment. 3. Retention for recruiters and sales. Treat the September dip as urgent. Study what separates recruiters who are still sharing at week 8 from those who aren't, and fix activation for the rest. 4. Measurement. - Report a core-action metric (shared a summary) alongside activity. - Restate WAU on both definitions. - Track promo cohorts' renewal separately. 5. Sales as a second bet, founders and engineers as free-plan users. Revisit sales once recruiting is working. Do not build for engineering orgs.

Before anything goes out

  • Check where persona labels for older users came from. Persona was only added at sign-up on 14 July and is self-reported, yet June cohorts and long-tenured respondents carry labels. If those were inferred, the persona cuts are directional until we verify them.
  • Treat the sample as indicative. The survey has 360 in-app responses out of 41,000 users. The pattern is clear, but the precise percentages aren't.
  • Re-pull September once cohorts mature, to size the Zoom effect.

I'm happy to redraft the update with you this week.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • September churn is about 5% against the base that can actually churn monthly (excluding prepay).
  • On the old definition WAU is probably nearer two-thirds of 41,000.

Grades and run details

Decision model 79 · LLM judge 80
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly55%
  • passAddresses the actual decision79%
  • passRespects explicit constraints50%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty84%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims39%
  • passProduces the required deliverable79%
  • passCatches the redefined metric100%
  • passUnpicks the 38%87%
  • passSees the early erosion96%
  • partialJudges fit by retention, not sign-ups60%
  • failGets the base of every number right47%
  • passFinds who it's a must-have for100%
  • passSpots false fit95%
  • passDoesn't scale before fit93%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
2.8 min
Submitted
5 Oct 2026
Haiku 5.5API

Usable with a quick edit11 of 14 checks passed

The memo is complete, evidence-backed, and actionable. The only small omission is the precise 11%/47% tenure split, but the call to re-cut the survey already covers it; a PM could add that in one sentence without redoing any reasoning.

Output

To: Sam Okafor, CEO From: VP Product Re: Draft Series A investor update

Bottom line: We have product-market fit with recruiting teams. We don't have it company-wide, and the plan to hire six AEs for enterprise engineering targets the segment that values us least. Several numbers in the draft are wrong or misleading, and Zoom's September announcement is missing entirely. Don't send it as written.

1. Do we have PMF, and for whom?

I tallied the 360 September survey responses by persona (share who said "very disappointed"):

PersonaResponsesVery disappointedWhat they'd use instead
Recruiters10054%Back to typing notes; "nothing does this as well"
Sales12039%Gong; our CRM's notes
Founders7532%"Nothing, I'd manage"; Otter
Engineers6518%"I don't really need notes"; Zoom; nothing

Recruiters are the core. They value candidate summaries that go straight into their ATS, scorecards that fill themselves, and being able to focus on the candidate. Their alternatives are manual or nothing, which is a real moat. Outside recruiters, the blended score is 32%.

Engineers value standup summaries or say "not much." Only 1 of 8 engineers on the Team plan is very disappointed. Behaviour agrees: the share of users who shared a summary by week 8 is 57–58% for recruiters, 40–42% for sales, 29–31% for founders, and 12–13% for engineers.

Caveats: 360 responses is under 1% of our 41,000 WAU, the survey is in-app and self-selected, and it doesn't filter for tenure. Many respondents have been active two weeks or less. Before we quote a number externally, we should re-cut the survey on users active eight weeks or more.

2. What in the draft is right and wrong

Right: - The 38% figure is correct (137 of 360). - MRR grew 28% from July to August ($196k to $251k). The arithmetic holds. - Recruiting is a genuinely strong segment.

Wrong or misleading:

  • "Right at the 40% bar." 38% is below 40%, and it is a blended figure that hides the split above. Don't claim we've crossed the benchmark.
  • "Retention is improving fast; newest cohorts are far stickier than June's." On 3 August we changed "active user" to include opening the daily summary email. Every cohort's curve steps up by about 12–13 points in the same week (the week of 27 July, which we should reconcile with the 3 August log date). June's cohort sat at 26% by week 8 on the old definition and at 39% after the change. That is a measurement effect, not stickiness. On the one metric that wasn't changed (shared a summary), retention has been flat since June, and it fell in September across every persona. The September cohort is also weaker than August's at the same age: 66% vs 76% active in week 1, and 54% vs 62% in week 2.
  • "MRR grew 28% in August." August's new MRR was $63.8k, against about $21–22k in each of the other months. The change was a 40%-off annual prepay promotion that ran 1–31 August. Roughly $40k of new MRR is promotion-driven. On that basis, September MRR is about $220k, not $262k. Underlying new MRR has been flat for four months. Churned MRR rose from $7.4k in June to $10.5k in September, about 4% of MRR a month. Net new MRR excluding the promotion fell from about $14k a month in June and July to about $11k in September.
  • The plan: six AEs selling Team plans into enterprise engineering. Engineers are our least-retained persona, and their alternatives are Zoom or nothing. On 8 September, Zoom made AI notes free on every paid Zoom plan. Enterprise engineering orgs are the most likely to already be on Zoom, so we'd be selling a $30/seat product against a bundled free one, on long enterprise cycles, with no proven ICP. Two Team customers have already asked whether they still need us. The plan points at the biggest seat counts and the weakest fit.
  • Omissions. The draft says nothing about Zoom, the churn trend, the promotion, or the definition change. Investors will find each of these in diligence. Better that they hear it from us.

3. What to tell investors instead

Suggested replacement, to be adjusted once the checks in section 5 are done:

> "We have strong product-market fit with recruiting teams: 54% of recruiting respondents would be very disappointed without Minutely, against 32% across other personas. Blended, 38%, just below the 40% benchmark. Our core action, sharing a summary, holds at about 57% of recruiters by week 8, but softened in September. August's MRR jump came from a 40%-off annual promotion; underlying new MRR has been about $21–22k a month for four months. We changed our active-user definition on 3 August and report both bases. Zoom made AI notes free for paid Zoom plans on 8 September. We're measuring our exposure and concentrating on recruiting workflows, where we're differentiated. The round funds that focus, with milestones we'll report against."

4. Where the new money should go

  • Don't hire six AEs for enterprise engineering. Start with two AEs selling Team and recruiting-team plans to talent-acquisition and sales-ops buyers. Add headcount only when they hit quota on that profile.
  • Deepen recruiting workflows. ATS write-back, scorecard automation and candidate summaries are what recruiters value, and what they'd lose if we disappeared. Recruiters' alternatives are manual, so depth of automation is where we win.
  • Fix retention and measurement. Find the cause of the September decline. Restore a clean activity metric, report cohorts on shared-summary, and open a churn workstream (about 4% of MRR a month).
  • Answer Zoom with evidence, not price cuts. Identify which Team customers are on paid Zoom plans, and what they'd lose. Test recruiting-focused packaging before changing prices.
  • Tranche the round against milestones. For example: recruiter week-8 shared-summary rate held at or above 57%; gross churn below 3% a month; ex-promotion net new MRR growing for two consecutive quarters; and AE quota attainment on the recruiting profile.

5. Before anything goes out

  1. Re-cut the survey on users active eight weeks or more, and report recruiters separately.
  2. Restate the active-user series on the old definition, and confirm the exact date of the step.
  3. Provide MRR excluding the promotion, and split annual prepay from monthly MRR.
  4. Find the cause of the September drop in week-1 and week-2 activity and shared-summary rates.
  5. List Team customers on paid Zoom plans and their renewal dates.

Happy to draft the revised update once these are in. The honest story is a sharp, defensible wedge in recruiting, with retention and churn we're working on. That's a fundable Series A if we present it that way.

Grades and run details

Decision model 75 · LLM judge 93
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly48%
  • passAddresses the actual decision92%
  • passRespects explicit constraints52%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty95%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims49%
  • passProduces the required deliverable72%
  • passCatches the redefined metric98%
  • partialUnpicks the 38%95%
  • passSees the early erosion76%
  • partialJudges fit by retention, not sign-ups59%
  • failGets the base of every number right48%
  • passFinds who it's a must-have for100%
  • passSpots false fit91%
  • passDoesn't scale before fit94%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
2.1 min
Submitted
8 Oct 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 4

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyRightWrongMixed
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

All factual claims about current performance, survey results, retention, MRR, and definitions are taken directly from the supplied files and calculated correctly.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The September churn rate of ~5% relies on a denominator (monthly-recurring base ex-prepay) not provided in the supplied data, so the figure is unsupported.

Haiku 5.5 · API

All facts, figures and quotes are taken correctly from the supplied files or follow directly by arithmetic, with nothing invented about the current situation.

Avoids unsupported claimsRightWrongRight
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Interpretations like the definition change causing the retention jump are labeled as such, and confident claims are grounded in the data.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Presents September churn as about 5% without evidence for the denominator, and the WAU estimate is unsupported speculation.

Haiku 5.5 · API

Interpretations like the promotion driving $40k are grounded in the note and arithmetic; no unsupported cause or forecast is stated as fact.

Unpicks the 38%RightRightWrong
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It separates users by tenure (≥2 weeks screen) and breaks down the very disappointed rate by persona, showing strong fit for recruiters (~62%) and weak for engineers (~24%).

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Separates users with under 2 weeks (90), gives overall very disappointed for established users (47%), and breaks down by persona (recruiters ~63%, engineers ~24%).

Haiku 5.5 · API

It separates by persona but does not break down the 38% by tenure into ~11% very disappointed for users under two weeks and ~47% for established users, which the criterion explicitly requires.

Gets the base of every number rightRightWrongMixed
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

All percentages (38.1%, 47.0%, 28.1% MRR growth, 4.4% September growth, and persona splits) are correctly computed from the data with clear denominators.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The September churn rate of 5% is stated without a clear denominator or derivation, so the base is not checkable from supplied data.

Haiku 5.5 · API

All derived percentages and step-to-step changes check out against the supplied data, and bases are stated where needed (e.g., 100 recruiters).

All got right 10

Addresses the actual decisionRightRightRight
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

The memo gives a clear early call (do not send the draft unchanged, do not hire six AEs, focus on recruiters) and specifies conditions that would change it.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Commits early to PMF with recruiters and a recruiting-led use of funds, and says what would change the call.

Haiku 5.5 · API

The memo commits early and clearly to recruiting as the segment with fit, says the draft is wrong, and rewrites the investor message with a concrete alternative plan.

Respects explicit constraintsRightRightRight
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

The output is a memo addressed to Sam, within 1,200 words, and respects the form and length requirements.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Memo is within 1,200 words, addressed to Sam, and follows the requested format.

Haiku 5.5 · API

The output is a memo under 1,200 words, addressed to Sam Okafor, and respects all explicit brief constraints.

Identifies material uncertaintyRightRightRight
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It names specific unknowns (response rates, backfill audit, export date, segment revenue, renewal evidence) and says how to resolve them.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Names the uncertainty around older users' persona labels, the small survey sample, and September data immaturity.

Haiku 5.5 · API

It names specific unknowns (survey filter, exact date of definition step, cause of September drop, Zoom exposure) and says how to resolve them.

Produces the required deliverableRightRightRight
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

The memo is complete, includes a draft investor message, and is directly usable by Sam with minor edits.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Delivered as a memo under the word limit, directly usable with light edits.

Haiku 5.5 · API

The memo directly answers whether PMF exists, what to tell investors, and where to put new money; it is usable by Sam with light edits.

Catches the redefined metricRightRightRight
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

The memo links the 3 August definition change to the diagonal retention jump and switches to the consistent shared-a-summary data for the real retention picture.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Links the 3 August metric change to the jump in every cohort's curve, explains it inflates retention, and uses the unaffected shared-a-summary data instead.

Haiku 5.5 · API

It links the 3 August redefinition to the cohort-curve jump, explains the retention claim is a measurement effect, and uses the consistent shared-a-summary metric.

Sees the early erosionRightRightRight
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It spots the September week-4 core-action drop, ties it to Zoom's launch and customer questions, and factors that risk into the recommendation to avoid scaling enterprise engineering sales.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Notes the September drop in week-4 sharing across personas, ties it to Zoom's launch, and uses it to steer the plan away from engineering.

Haiku 5.5 · API

It notices the September drop in week-4 core-action retention, ties it to Zoom's launch, and uses it to steer away from enterprise engineering.

Judges fit by retention, not sign-upsRightRightRight
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

The call on PMF relies on retention-curve flatness by persona (shared-a-summary) rather than sign-ups or revenue, with the survey as supporting evidence.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Bases the PMF call on retention curves flattening for recruiters (shared-a-summary) and not on survey or revenue alone.

Haiku 5.5 · API

The PMF call rests on segment-level retention curves (shared-a-summary data) and uses the survey as supporting, not revenue or sign-ups alone.

Finds who it's a must-have forRightRightRight
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It identifies recruiters as the must-have segment, noting what they value (candidate summaries, ATS scorecards, focus on the candidate) and builds the plan around them.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Profiles recruiters as the must-have segment, names what they value (ATS integrations, scorecards), and builds the plan around them.

Haiku 5.5 · API

It profiles recruiters as the must-have segment, states what they value, and builds the hiring and investment plan around them.

Spots false fitRightRightRight
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

The memo calls out the August promotional MRR spike, the active-definition change, and the early erosion as misleading signs of fit.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Catches the false retention improvement from the metric redefinition, the August MRR spike from the promotion, and the early Zoom erosion.

Haiku 5.5 · API

It flags the metric redefinition, the August promotion, and the MRR spike as spurious signals that do not indicate organic product-market fit.

Doesn't scale before fitRightRightRight
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It refuses to scale into enterprise engineering and sets economic conditions for any future sales hiring, limiting investment to segments with demonstrated fit.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Advises against hiring AEs into enterprise engineering without fit, and recommends staged expansion for recruiting only after demonstrating conversion.

Haiku 5.5 · API

It advises against scaling into enterprise engineering and proposes two AEs for recruiting/sales-ops with a condition to add headcount only after quota attainment, which is scaling where fit is shown.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 AstraChatGPT90.5100.02None
2Sonnet 5.5API77.990.02None
3Opus 5.5Claude79.782.92None
4Haiku 5.5API77.986.02None
5GPT-6.1 SolAPI90.575.72None
6GPT-6 LunaAPI92.772.42None
7Gemini 3.8 FlashAPI65.062.12None
8Gemini 3.5 Flash-LiteGemini65.151.92None

What you get for the cost

No setup scores within 5 points of the leader at half its cost or less here, so the leader is also the best value.

Task score against relative cost for each setup. The table below has the same figures.50607080901001×3×10×30×100×Cost per output, relative to the cheapest setup (log scale) →↑ Task scoreGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT: task score 96, 118× the cheapestSonnet 5.5 · API: task score 85, 81× the cheapestOpus 5.5 · Claude: task score 82, 118× the cheapestHaiku 5.5 · API: task score 81, 6.1× the cheapestGPT-6.1 Sol · API: task score 80, 25× the cheapestGPT-6 Luna · API: task score 79, the cheapestGemini 3.8 Flash · API: task score 63, 16× the cheapestGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini: task score 56, 2.8× the cheapestGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPTSonnet 5.5 · APIOpus 5.5 · ClaudeHaiku 5.5 · APIGPT-6.1 Sol · APIGPT-6 Luna · APIGemini 3.8 Flash · APIGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini
Nobody beats these on both score and cost

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

The PM job

Deciding whether you have product-market fit, and for whom.

Why it matters

Scaling before fit amplifies waste. Most teams read fit from sign-ups or a blended survey, and miss the one segment where it's real.

What good looks like

  • Judges fit by retention, not sign-ups
  • Breaks the survey down by segment and tenure
  • Spots revenue and metrics that flatter
  • Scales only where fit is proven

Deliberately not measured

  • Fundraising strategy beyond what the evidence supports
Capability tested

Reading fit from evidence

The failure we’re looking for

Calling fit from a blended number or a growth spike

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review