Tasks / Define

Develop product strategy

Can the model make a coherent choice grounded in the evidence, rather than list aspirations?

Measures the modelTask v1.1 · 2 casesDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 12 graded outputs by 6 models. 75% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Produces the required deliverable100% pass
    It is a complete one-page strategy for the CEO/board, with staged funding, metrics, and risk controls, usable as-is with light edits.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Supply or demand for a stalled marketplace
  2. Makes a clear choice100% pass
    It chooses matching quality as the one bet and names what it forgoes: broad paid acquisition, broad tutor recruitment, and unrelated marketplace expansion.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Supply or demand for a stalled marketplace
  3. Diagnosis before prescription100% pass
    It diagnoses the mismatch between abundant supply and failed matching, and the proposed actions directly target tutor choice and repeat bookings.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Supply or demand for a stalled marketplace

Where it slips

  1. Proposes tests that could fail35% pass
    The months 7–12 gate says 'gains persist and contribution economics support expansion' without a numeric threshold or defined contribution target, so not every gate names a threshold.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Supply or demand for a stalled marketplace
  2. Uses the supplied evidence correctly40% pass
    The output makes unsupported claims about the current system (open-ended tutor browsing as default journey, existence of data on subject/exam-board segments) that are not in the supplied context.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Supply or demand for a stalled marketplace
  3. Avoids unsupported claims48% pass
    Presents as fact that the current default journey is open-ended tutor browsing and that data on highest-volume subject/exam-board segments exists, neither of which is in the supplied evidence.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Supply or demand for a stalled marketplace

Case viewer

Read the brief, then put up to three outputs side by side, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

Our tutoring marketplace has stalled at about 4,000 bookings a month. Write a one-page strategy for the next 12 months (about 500 words) for our CEO to take to the board. We can fund one major bet.

ScenarioTutorly connects secondary-school students with independent tutors for online lessons at £30–45 an hour; we take a 20% commission. There are 6,500 active tutors and 11,000 active students. We have 18 months of runway and about £1.2m to put behind the one bet.
MetricsTutor supply up 60% year on year; bookings up 8%. 70% of tutors get zero bookings in a typical month. Repeat booking rate is 64% for students who book twice.
ResearchStudents cite 'finding the right tutor' as their top problem. Tutors cite 'not enough students'.
Board viewThe board believes paid acquisition of students is the answer.
What a strong answer does

Recognise the contradiction: supply is abundant but matching fails, so buying demand into a broken match pours water into a leaky bucket. Choose matching quality and say what is given up.

Critical failures (cap the score)
  • Recommends paid demand acquisition without addressing matching
Case

v1.9 · synthetic · marketplace, board pressure

Needs more than a quick edit8 of 10 checks passed

The output invents a fact about not tracking first-to-second conversion, requiring re-checking of evidence. A PM would need to verify data systems before using it.

Output

Tutorly: 12-Month Strategy

Sep 24, 2026 · @Martin Slaney

The problem is matching, not demand1

Tutor supply grew 60% last year; bookings grew 8%. 70% of our 6,500 tutors get no bookings in a typical month, and our 11,000 active students generate only \~4,000 bookings a month. Both sides report the same failure from opposite ends: students can't find the right tutor; tutors can't find students. Adding supply has made the catalogue bigger and choosing harder.

The bright spot: students who book twice repeat at 64%. The relationship works once it starts.3 The leak is between arriving and the second lesson.

Why paid acquisition first is the wrong bet

Paid acquisition sends more students into the same funnel that already fails to convert most of the ones we have. We'd be buying students at full cost and losing them at the step before the relationship forms. At a 20% take on £30–45 lessons (\~£7.50 per booking), we only recover acquisition cost from students who stick; today too few get there. Fix conversion first, and every pound of acquisition afterwards is worth more.

The bet: managed matching

Replace browse-and-hope with matching we take responsibility for.

  • Guided intake. Subject, level, exam board, goals, learning style, budget, availability. Two minutes, not twenty profiles.
  • We recommend three tutors, ranked on fit and track record, not on who signed up most recently.
  • Low-risk first lesson. A discounted trial plus a "right tutor or your next lesson free" guarantee.
  • Curate supply. Stop broad tutor recruitment. Recruit only where demand outstrips supply (by subject and exam level); rank and surface tutors on conversion and repeat rate; move inactive tutors out of results.
  • Start with human matchers, then automate what works. The concierge data trains the algorithm.

Budget and milestones

Allocation£
Matching product, data and ranking (team of \~4)500k
Human matching concierge (pilot, then scale down)200k
Trial-lesson subsidy and guarantee150k
Gated acquisition tranche (released at month 6 only if targets hit)350k
Total1.2m

Month 3: matching live for new students in top 3 subjects. Baseline set for first-to-second-lesson conversion (we don't track this cleanly today2; it's the number that matters most).

Month 6 gate: first-to-second conversion up 50% on baseline; share of tutors with zero bookings below 55%. Hit it, and we release £350k into paid acquisition, now into a funnel that converts. Miss it, and we hold the cash as runway.

Month 12: 6,000 bookings a month (+50%), with growth coming from bookings per student, not student count alone.

Ask of the board

Back matching as the one bet, with acquisition as its reward, not its substitute. We're not against growth spend; we're against spending it before the product can hold the students it buys. With 18 months of runway, the month-6 gate gives us a clear read while two-thirds of the budget and a year of runway remain.

What a PM had to fix

  1. 1Hypothesis stated as factReframe it as a hypothesisTargeted repair

    Source: ResearchStudents cite 'finding the right tutor' as their top problem. Tutors cite 'not enough students'.

    What we’d changeFrame matching as the working hypothesis the research points to, and say what the first months will test, rather than stating it as the diagnosis.

  2. 2Invented evidenceVerify or remove the claimQuick edit

    What we’d changeRemove it: the brief doesn't say what's tracked. Say the baseline will be set in month 3.

  3. 3Hypothesis stated as factReframe it as a hypothesisQuick edit

    Source: MetricsRepeat booking rate is 64% for students who book twice.

    What we’d changeThe 64% applies to students who book twice. It doesn't show the relationship works for everyone who starts.

Check by check

Got wrong · 2
  • Uses the supplied evidence correctlyOutput claims 'we don't track this cleanly today' about first-to-second conversion, which is not in the supplied context and is an invented fact about current systems.
  • Avoids unsupported claimsPresents interpretations like 'Adding supply has made the catalogue bigger and choosing harder' and 'The leak is between arriving and the second lesson' as established facts without labelling them as hypotheses.
Got right · 8
  • Addresses the actual decisionCommits to managed matching as the one bet, with acquisition gated on matching improvement, and states the condition that would change the call.
  • Respects explicit constraintsOne-page strategy, ~500 words, for CEO to board, one major bet funded within £1.2m.
  • Identifies material uncertaintyIdentifies uncertainty about matching effectiveness and sets a month-6 gate with numeric thresholds to resolve it.
  • Produces the required deliverableComplete strategy memo with diagnosis, bet, budget, milestones, and ask, usable by CEO for board.
  • Surfaces the central contradictionHighlights that supply grew 60% but bookings only 8% and 70% of tutors get no bookings, surfacing the matching failure.
  • Makes a clear choiceChooses managed matching as the one bet and explicitly forgoes immediate paid acquisition.
  • Diagnosis before prescriptionDiagnoses matching as the crux, and all actions (guided intake, recommendations, trial, curation) address it.
  • Proposes tests that could failMonth-6 gate has numeric thresholds (conversion up 50%, zero-booking tutors below 55%), a 3-month window, and clear actions for pass/fail.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • we don't track this cleanly today (first-to-second-lesson conversion).
  • Adding supply has made the catalogue bigger and choosing harder.
  • The leak is between arriving and the second lesson.

Grades and run details

Decision model 80 · LLM judge 8 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly69%
  • passAddresses the actual decision100%
  • passRespects explicit constraints58%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty99%
  • failAvoids unsupported claims49%
  • passProduces the required deliverable90%
  • passSurfaces the central contradiction100%
  • passMakes a clear choice99%
  • passDiagnosis before prescription100%
  • passProposes tests that could fail50%
Artefacts
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
62 s
Submitted
24 Sept 2026

Usable with a quick edit8 of 10 checks passed

The output is well-structured and evidence-based; a quick edit to add a numeric threshold for the pilot kill criterion would make it fully usable without re-checking evidence or redoing reasoning.

Output

Tutorly: 12-month strategy — make every good match count

Recommendation: Put our £1.2m behind improving the first tutor match, not broad paid acquisition. Tutor supply is growing far faster than bookings, 70% of tutors get no booking in a typical month, and students say finding the right tutor is their main problem. Buying more student traffic before fixing that experience risks paying to send more families into the same frustration. The encouraging signal is that students who book again show a 64% repeat rate: when a match works, there is reason to believe students stay.

The bet: a guided matching and first-booking service

Build a faster, more trusted path from a student’s need to a first lesson. Ask about subject, exam level, goals, budget, availability and preferred teaching style; then show a short, ranked list of tutors who are available and suitable—not a directory students must search alone. Make tutor profiles clearer on relevant experience and approach, and prompt tutors to respond quickly. For students who still struggle, offer human-assisted matching.

Start with the subjects and exam levels that already have the strongest demand and enough suitable tutors. Use actual enquiries, bookings, repeat behaviour and student feedback to improve recommendations. This is one integrated liquidity bet: make existing demand easier to serve with existing supply, rather than adding supply or buying broad traffic.

How we will execute

In the first 90 days, analyse the booking funnel and pilot assisted matching in a few high-demand subject/exam segments. Compare it with the current journey on first booking, time to match, cancellations and student satisfaction. In months 4–6, automate the most successful parts and improve availability and profile information. In months 7–12, expand only where the pilot improves bookings without harming quality. Help tutors without bookings improve their profiles or availability; stop actively promoting tutors who are unavailable or consistently unresponsive.

Allocate the £1.2m across the year: £450k product and data, £300k matching and student support, £250k tutor onboarding and quality, £100k testing and measurement, and £100k contingency. Release funding in stages, with a formal review after the pilot.1

What success looks like

By month 12, target 6,000 monthly bookings (up from 4,000) and at least 45% of active tutors receiving a booking in a typical month (up from 30%). Also improve first-booking conversion and time to first lesson, while maintaining or improving repeat booking, cancellation and satisfaction rates. Report results by subject and exam level so growth cannot hide weak or overloaded segments.

Hold broad paid acquisition for now. Run only small, measurable acquisition tests in segments where matching is working; scale spend only if the resulting students book and repeat at acceptable acquisition cost. If the pilot fails to improve first bookings, stop and reassess before committing the remaining funds. This gives the board a measurable growth bet while protecting our 18-month runway.

What a PM had to fix

  1. 1Invented evidenceVerify or remove the claimTargeted repair

    What we’d changeTreat £1.2m as a funding ceiling, not a spending commitment. Assuming one-hour lessons, reaching 6,000 monthly bookings adds only £12k–18k in monthly commission revenue before costs. That target alone does not justify the investment. Cost the 90-day matching pilot first; release further funding only if incremental completed bookings, repeat behaviour and service costs support a credible path to covering the investment within our financing horizon. Assess that path against actual cash burn and remaining runway before scaling.

Check by check

Got wrong · 1
  • Proposes tests that could failThe pilot kill criterion lacks a numeric threshold; it only says 'fails to improve first bookings' without a specific measurable target.
Mixed · 1
  • Uses the supplied evidence correctlyAll statements about the current situation are taken directly from the supplied context with no invented facts.The two graders disagreed on this one.
Got right · 8
  • Addresses the actual decisionCommits early to one choice (improving matching, not paid acquisition), framed for the CEO, and says the pilot failing to improve first bookings would trigger reassessment.
  • Respects explicit constraintsDelivers a one-page strategy of about 500 words for the CEO to take to the board, respecting the form, reader and length.
  • Identifies material uncertaintyIdentifies that the effect of matching improvement on bookings is uncertain, and specifies that a pilot will resolve it, with a clear stop condition if it fails.
  • Avoids unsupported claimsInterpretations and forecasts are presented as risks or hypotheses, not as established facts; factual claims are all supported.
  • Produces the required deliverableThe output is a complete, actionable strategy memo that the CEO could take to the board with minimal edits.
  • Surfaces the central contradictionClearly surfaces the contradiction: supply grew 60% but bookings only 8%, 70% of tutors idle, and students can't find the right tutor.
  • Makes a clear choiceChooses one bet (matching quality) and explicitly forgoes broad paid acquisition, naming the sacrifice.
  • Diagnosis before prescriptionDiagnoses the crux (broken matching despite abundant supply) and all major actions directly address that crux.

Grades and run details

Decision model 80 · LLM judge 10 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly42%
  • passAddresses the actual decision100%
  • passRespects explicit constraints66%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty95%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims11%
  • passProduces the required deliverable96%
  • passSurfaces the central contradiction100%
  • passMakes a clear choice100%
  • passDiagnosis before prescription100%
  • partialProposes tests that could fail80%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
21 s
Submitted
29 Sept 2026

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task, across all cases and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated: the graders match our PM on 84% of checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 LunawithAPI87.290.52None
2GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI87.285.92None
3Sonnet 5.5withAPI79.285.92None
4GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT89.775.52None
5Opus 5.5withClaude78.971.42None
6Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini58.357.72None

About the task

The PM job

Writing a strategy memo that leadership can act on.

Why it matters

Strategy that doesn't choose isn't strategy. Models write fluent strategic prose easily; making a choice the evidence supports and naming what it gives up is harder.

What good looks like

  • Diagnoses the one obstacle that matters before prescribing
  • Makes one clear choice and names what is sacrificed
  • Grounds the choice in the supplied evidence
  • Surfaces the tension or contradiction in the data
  • Defines how we would know it is working

Deliberately not measured

  • Market sizing accuracy beyond the supplied data
  • Financial modelling
Capability tested

Choosing where to play and what not to do, from supplied evidence

The failure we’re looking for

Strategic-sounding aspirations without a diagnosis or a choice

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review