Usable with a quick edit8 of 10 checks passed
The strategy is complete and actionable; the unsupported assumptions about the current journey and data can be removed or verified with a quick edit without redoing the reasoning.
Output
Tutorly: 12-Month Strategy for the Board
Decision requested: Back one major bet: a guided matching service that helps students find the right tutor and converts successful introductions into repeat lessons. Commit up to £1.2m, released against evidence. Do not make broad paid acquisition the primary strategy yet.
Why this bet
Tutorly’s constraint appears to be successful matching, not tutor availability. Tutor supply grew 60% year on year, while bookings grew just 8%; 70% of tutors receive no bookings in a typical month. Adding more supply will not solve this imbalance.
Students identify “finding the right tutor” as their main problem. The 64% repeat booking rate among students who book twice suggests value after a relationship forms—but excludes students who never reach a second lesson. It does not establish strong retention across the whole marketplace.
The board’s acquisition thesis may be right: insufficient student demand could explain underutilisation. But buying more traffic before testing the matching bottleneck risks paying to reproduce today’s disappointing conversion. At £6–9 commission per lesson, acquisition economics require sustained repeat bookings.
The major bet: guided matching
Replace open-ended tutor browsing as the default journey with a short intake covering subject, exam board, goals, budget, availability and learning preferences. Present three suitable, genuinely available tutors, explain each recommendation and make the first booking straightforward.
Start with human-assisted matching rather than a large algorithm build. Use this service to learn what predicts a successful relationship, then automate proven steps. After the first lesson, collect fit feedback, offer a quick rematch where necessary and prompt a recurring booking where appropriate.
Concentrate initially on the highest-volume subject and exam-board segments identified in our data. Pause broad tutor recruitment; prioritise responsive existing tutors with relevant availability. Success means productive student–tutor relationships, not equal booking distribution across all 6,500 tutors.
Execution and investment
Months 1–3: Diagnose and test. Establish funnel baselines from student arrival through first, second and subsequent lessons. Run a controlled experiment comparing guided matching with today’s journey, using comparable student cohorts. Measure tutor responsiveness and matching-service cost.
Months 4–6: Prove repeatability. Expand only if the pilot improves completed bookings and repeat behaviour—not merely enquiry volume. Refine recommendations, automate intake and scheduling, and establish contribution economics after matching support costs.
Months 7–12: Scale the winner. Roll out proven workflows across suitable segments. Increase paid student acquisition only where matched cohorts demonstrate viable acquisition payback, turning acquisition into distribution for the same bet.
Allocate £450k to product and engineering, £350k to matching operations, £150k to research and measurement, and £250k as a gated scaling reserve. Review spending quarterly against the remaining runway.
Board scorecard and stop rules
Set initial targets of 25% higher first-booking conversion and 20% higher second-booking conversion versus control, with no deterioration in cancellations or lesson satisfaction. Track 90-day bookings and contribution per student, including acquisition and service costs.
Aim to reach 6,000 monthly bookings by month 12, as a planning target rather than a forecast. If the six-month evidence shows no meaningful improvement or an uneconomic service cost, stop expansion and preserve capital.
Strategic principle: Prove that Tutorly can reliably turn student demand into lasting tutoring relationships before paying substantially more to generate that demand.
Check by check
Got wrong · 2
- Uses the supplied evidence correctlyThe output makes unsupported claims about the current system (open-ended tutor browsing as default journey, existence of data on subject/exam-board segments) that are not in the supplied context.
- Avoids unsupported claimsPresents as fact that the current default journey is open-ended tutor browsing and that data on highest-volume subject/exam-board segments exists, neither of which is in the supplied evidence.
Got right · 8
- Addresses the actual decisionCommits to one bet (guided matching) early, says what is sacrificed (broad paid acquisition as primary strategy), and states the condition (no meaningful improvement or uneconomic cost) that would change the call.
- Respects explicit constraintsThe output is a one-page strategy of about 500 words for the CEO to take to the board, commits to one major bet within the £1.2m funding, and respects all stated constraints.
- Identifies material uncertaintyNames the uncertainty (whether matching or demand is the real bottleneck), acknowledges the board's thesis may be right, and specifies that six-month evidence of no improvement or uneconomic cost would stop expansion.
- Produces the required deliverableDelivers a complete, actionable one-page strategy (~516 words) for the CEO to take to the board, with decision, rationale, execution plan, and scorecard.
- Surfaces the central contradictionClearly identifies that supply grew 60% while bookings grew only 8% and 70% of tutors get zero bookings, surfacing the mismatch.
- Makes a clear choiceChooses guided matching as the one bet and explicitly forgoes broad paid acquisition as the primary strategy.
- Diagnosis before prescriptionStates the crux (matching, not supply, is the constraint) and each major action (guided matching, human-assisted intake, rematch) directly addresses it.
- Proposes tests that could failProposes numeric thresholds (25% higher first-booking conversion, 20% higher second-booking conversion), a six-month window, and a clear stop rule (no meaningful improvement or uneconomic cost).
Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief
- The current default journey is open-ended tutor browsing
- We have data identifying highest-volume subject and exam-board segments
Grades and run details
Decision model 80 · LLM judge 9 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
- failUses the supplied evidence correctly19%
- passAddresses the actual decision100%
- passRespects explicit constraints46%
- passIdentifies material uncertainty100%
- partialAvoids unsupported claims4%
- passProduces the required deliverable83%
- passSurfaces the central contradiction100%
- passMakes a clear choice100%
- passDiagnosis before prescription100%
- partialProposes tests that could fail83%
Run
- Run
- #1
- API response time
- 22 s
- Submitted
- 29 Sept 2026