Tasks / Define

Develop product strategy

Can the model make a coherent choice grounded in the evidence, rather than list aspirations?

Measures the modelTask v1.1 · 2 casesDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 14 graded outputs by 7 models. 64% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Produces the required deliverable100% pass
    It is a complete one-page strategy for the CEO/board, with staged funding, metrics, and risk controls, usable as-is with light edits.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Supply or demand for a stalled marketplace
  2. Diagnosis before prescription100% pass
    It diagnoses the mismatch between abundant supply and failed matching, and the proposed actions directly target tutor choice and repeat bookings.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Supply or demand for a stalled marketplace
  3. Surfaces the central contradiction100% pass
    It explicitly states supply grew 60% while bookings grew only 8%, and that 70% of tutors get no bookings.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Supply or demand for a stalled marketplace

Where it slips

  1. Proposes tests that could fail32% pass
    The months 7–12 gate says 'gains persist and contribution economics support expansion' without a numeric threshold or defined contribution target, so not every gate names a threshold.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Supply or demand for a stalled marketplace
  2. Uses the supplied evidence correctly39% pass
    The output makes unsupported claims about the current system (open-ended tutor browsing as default journey, existence of data on subject/exam-board segments) that are not in the supplied context.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Supply or demand for a stalled marketplace
  3. Avoids unsupported claims41% pass
    Presents as fact that the current default journey is open-ended tutor browsing and that data on highest-volume subject/exam-board segments exists, neither of which is in the supplied evidence.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Supply or demand for a stalled marketplace

Case viewer

Read the brief, then put up to three outputs side by side, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

Our tutoring marketplace has stalled at about 4,000 bookings a month. Write a one-page strategy for the next 12 months (about 500 words) for our CEO to take to the board. We can fund one major bet.

What the model was given4 items: Scenario, Metrics, Research, Board view
ScenarioTutorly connects secondary-school students with independent tutors for online lessons at £30–45 an hour; we take a 20% commission. There are 6,500 active tutors and 11,000 active students. We have 18 months of runway and about £1.2m to put behind the one bet.
MetricsTutor supply up 60% year on year; bookings up 8%. 70% of tutors get zero bookings in a typical month. Repeat booking rate is 64% for students who book twice.
ResearchStudents cite 'finding the right tutor' as their top problem. Tutors cite 'not enough students'.
Board viewThe board believes paid acquisition of students is the answer.
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Recognise the contradiction: supply is abundant but matching fails, so buying demand into a broken match pours water into a leaky bucket. Choose matching quality and say what is given up.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Recommends paid demand acquisition without addressing matching
Case

Staff-level · v1.9 · synthetic · marketplace, board pressure

The outputs

7 setups answered this brief. Pick up to three to read side by side.

Needs more than a quick edit3 of 10 checks passed

A PM would need to remove invented current-state claims and add a hard decision gate and explicit sacrifice before using it. The reasoning is directionally strong but not evidence-safe as written.

Output

MEMORANDUM

TO: Board of Directors, Tutorly FROM: Chief Executive Officer DATE: October 2023 SUBJECT: 12-Month Strategic Plan: Unlocking Growth via Managed Matching

---

Executive Summary: Diagnosing the Growth Plateau

Our marketplace has stalled at 4,000 bookings/month (~£30k monthly net revenue) despite healthy user numbers (11k students, 6.5k tutors).

The Board’s instinct to deploy our £1.2m reserve into paid student acquisition is understandable, but premature. The data reveals a liquidity and conversion bottleneck, not an awareness problem: * Supply is bloated and disengaged: Tutor supply grew 60% YoY, yet 70% receive zero bookings monthly. * Friction kills discovery: Students cite “finding the right tutor” as their primary obstacle. Our open-directory model forces parents to sift through 6,500 profiles, causing decision paralysis and drop-off. * Underlying product-market fit is proven: When students reach a second booking, 64% retain.

Pouring paid traffic into an unguided directory will burn our £1.2m on high CAC and low conversion. Our single bet for the next 12 months is transitioning from an open directory to an intelligent, Managed Matching Engine.

---

The Single Bet: "The Perfect Match" Engine

Instead of browsing endless profiles, parents will complete a 60-second diagnostic intake (curriculum tier, personality, learning barriers, availability). Our matching engine pairs them with the single best tutor—backed by a 100% “First Lesson Satisfaction Guarantee” (rebooked free if not a fit).

By actively directing demand to a curated, high-performing top quartile of our supply (~1,500 tutors), we solve both sides of the marketplace: students find immediate trust, and active tutors earn dependable income.

#### Allocation of the £1.2m Capital: 1. Product & Matching Tech (£500k): Algorithmic intake flow, automated calendar sync, and in-app instant booking to eliminate messaging back-and-forth. 2. Onboarding & Operations (£300k): Quality vetting, tiering supply, and a proactive concierge team to manually rescue failed first sessions. 3. Targeted Performance Marketing (£400k): Phased acquisition deployed only once the match-to-book conversion rate improves.

---

12-Month Execution Roadmap

  • Q1–Q2 (Fix the Engine):
  • Replace public browse with the guided diagnostic matching flow.
  • Restrict active routing to the top 25% highest-rated tutors to concentrate liquidity.
  • Launch the "Fit Guarantee" to de-risk the first booking.
  • Q3 (Solve the 2nd Booking):
  • Automate recurring weekly reservation slots right after lesson one (optimizing for the 64% retention threshold).
  • Introduce 4-lesson starter packs to mathematically guarantee lesson two.
  • Q4 (Scale What Works):
  • Deploy the remaining £400k into intent-driven paid channels (Google Search for GCSE/A-Level revision), scaling into a proven, high-converting funnel.

---

Targets & Milestones

MetricCurrent12-Month Target
:---:---:---
Monthly Bookings4,00010,000+
Search-to-First-Booking CVRBaseline+40%
% Tutors with ≥1 Booking/mo30%65% (of active tier)
Annualized Net Revenue (20%)£360k£900k+

Conclusion: Fixing search friction activates the high-retention engine we already possess. By funding matching instead of brute-force acquisition, we reach sustainable unit economics and double our run-rate within our existing 18-month runway.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • Tutorly currently operates an open-directory model in which parents sift through 6,500 profiles.
  • The current model causes decision paralysis and drop-off.
  • The problem is a liquidity and conversion bottleneck, not an awareness problem.
  • Paid traffic into an unguided directory will burn £1.2m on high CAC and low conversion.
  • There is a high-performing top quartile of supply of about 1,500 tutors.

Grades and run details

Decision model 65 · LLM judge 3 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly76%
  • passAddresses the actual decision69%
  • passRespects explicit constraints40%
  • partialIdentifies material uncertainty42%
  • failAvoids unsupported claims85%
  • passProduces the required deliverable67%
  • passSurfaces the central contradiction100%
  • passMakes a clear choice95%
  • passDiagnosis before prescription100%
  • failProposes tests that could fail28%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
16 s
Submitted
1 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit8 of 10 checks passed

The output is well-structured and evidence-based; a quick edit to add a numeric threshold for the pilot kill criterion would make it fully usable without re-checking evidence or redoing reasoning.

Output

Tutorly: 12-month strategy — make every good match count

Recommendation: Put our £1.2m behind improving the first tutor match, not broad paid acquisition. Tutor supply is growing far faster than bookings, 70% of tutors get no booking in a typical month, and students say finding the right tutor is their main problem. Buying more student traffic before fixing that experience risks paying to send more families into the same frustration. The encouraging signal is that students who book again show a 64% repeat rate: when a match works, there is reason to believe students stay.

The bet: a guided matching and first-booking service

Build a faster, more trusted path from a student’s need to a first lesson. Ask about subject, exam level, goals, budget, availability and preferred teaching style; then show a short, ranked list of tutors who are available and suitable—not a directory students must search alone. Make tutor profiles clearer on relevant experience and approach, and prompt tutors to respond quickly. For students who still struggle, offer human-assisted matching.

Start with the subjects and exam levels that already have the strongest demand and enough suitable tutors. Use actual enquiries, bookings, repeat behaviour and student feedback to improve recommendations. This is one integrated liquidity bet: make existing demand easier to serve with existing supply, rather than adding supply or buying broad traffic.

How we will execute

In the first 90 days, analyse the booking funnel and pilot assisted matching in a few high-demand subject/exam segments. Compare it with the current journey on first booking, time to match, cancellations and student satisfaction. In months 4–6, automate the most successful parts and improve availability and profile information. In months 7–12, expand only where the pilot improves bookings without harming quality. Help tutors without bookings improve their profiles or availability; stop actively promoting tutors who are unavailable or consistently unresponsive.

Allocate the £1.2m across the year: £450k product and data, £300k matching and student support, £250k tutor onboarding and quality, £100k testing and measurement, and £100k contingency. Release funding in stages, with a formal review after the pilot.1

What success looks like

By month 12, target 6,000 monthly bookings (up from 4,000) and at least 45% of active tutors receiving a booking in a typical month (up from 30%). Also improve first-booking conversion and time to first lesson, while maintaining or improving repeat booking, cancellation and satisfaction rates. Report results by subject and exam level so growth cannot hide weak or overloaded segments.

Hold broad paid acquisition for now. Run only small, measurable acquisition tests in segments where matching is working; scale spend only if the resulting students book and repeat at acceptable acquisition cost. If the pilot fails to improve first bookings, stop and reassess before committing the remaining funds. This gives the board a measurable growth bet while protecting our 18-month runway.

What a PM had to fix

  1. 1Invented evidenceVerify or remove the claimTargeted repair

    What we’d changeTreat £1.2m as a funding ceiling, not a spending commitment. Assuming one-hour lessons, reaching 6,000 monthly bookings adds only £12k–18k in monthly commission revenue before costs. That target alone does not justify the investment. Cost the 90-day matching pilot first; release further funding only if incremental completed bookings, repeat behaviour and service costs support a credible path to covering the investment within our financing horizon. Assess that path against actual cash burn and remaining runway before scaling.

Grades and run details

Decision model 80 · LLM judge 10 of 11 checks
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly42%
  • passAddresses the actual decision100%
  • passRespects explicit constraints66%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty95%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims11%
  • passProduces the required deliverable96%
  • passSurfaces the central contradiction100%
  • passMakes a clear choice100%
  • passDiagnosis before prescription100%
  • partialProposes tests that could fail80%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
21 s
Submitted
29 Sept 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 6

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyWrongMixed
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It invents current-state facts such as an open-directory model, parents sifting through profiles, decision paralysis, and a high-performing top quartile of about 1,500 tutors.

GPT-6 Luna · API

All statements about the current situation are taken directly from the supplied context with no invented facts.

Addresses the actual decisionMixedRight
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It commits to managed matching, but does not clearly state what result or condition would change that decision.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Commits early to one choice (improving matching, not paid acquisition), framed for the CEO, and says the pilot failing to improve first bookings would trigger reassessment.

Respects explicit constraintsMixedRight
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It allocates £400k to paid acquisition as part of the plan without a concrete gate, so it does not fully enforce the one-major-bet constraint.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Delivers a one-page strategy of about 500 words for the CEO to take to the board, respecting the form, reader and length.

Identifies material uncertaintyWrongRight
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It does not name material unknowns such as whether matching improves conversion, whether top tutors have capacity, or whether the guarantee is affordable.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Identifies that the effect of matching improvement on bookings is uncertain, and specifies that a pilot will resolve it, with a clear stop condition if it fails.

Avoids unsupported claimsWrongRight
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It presents several interpretations and forecasts as established fact, including high CAC, low conversion, decision paralysis, and guaranteed lesson two.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Interpretations and forecasts are presented as risks or hypotheses, not as established facts; factual claims are all supported.

Makes a clear choiceMixedRight
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It chooses matching, but does not clearly name what is sacrificed, and it still funds paid acquisition without a hard threshold.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Chooses one bet (matching quality) and explicitly forgoes broad paid acquisition, naming the sacrifice.

All got wrong 1

Proposes tests that could failWrongWrong
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The only gate, deploying paid marketing once match-to-book conversion improves, lacks a numeric threshold, measurement window, and explicit action for failure.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The pilot kill criterion lacks a numeric threshold; it only says 'fails to improve first bookings' without a specific measurable target.

All got right 3

Produces the required deliverableRightRight
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It is a board-ready one-page strategy memo for the CEO, roughly within the requested length and usable with light edits.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The output is a complete, actionable strategy memo that the CEO could take to the board with minimal edits.

Surfaces the central contradictionRightRight
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It explicitly identifies that tutor supply grew 60% while 70% of tutors receive zero bookings and bookings grew only 8%.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Clearly surfaces the contradiction: supply grew 60% but bookings only 8%, 70% of tutors idle, and students can't find the right tutor.

Diagnosis before prescriptionRightRight
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It diagnoses matching/search friction as the crux and proposes intake, routing, guarantee, and recurring booking actions aimed at that crux.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Diagnoses the crux (broken matching despite abundant supply) and all major actions directly address that crux.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task, across all cases and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated: the graders match our PM on 84% of checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 LunawithAPI87.290.52None
2GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI87.285.92None
3Sonnet 5.5withAPI79.285.92None
4GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT89.775.52None
5Opus 5.5withClaude78.971.42None
6Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini58.357.72None
7Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI71.438.62None

About the task

The PM job

Writing a strategy memo that leadership can act on.

Why it matters

Strategy that doesn't choose isn't strategy. Models write fluent strategic prose easily; making a choice the evidence supports and naming what it gives up is harder.

What good looks like

  • Diagnoses the one obstacle that matters before prescribing
  • Makes one clear choice and names what is sacrificed
  • Grounds the choice in the supplied evidence
  • Surfaces the tension or contradiction in the data
  • Defines how we would know it is working

Deliberately not measured

  • Market sizing accuracy beyond the supplied data
  • Financial modelling
Capability tested

Choosing where to play and what not to do, from supplied evidence

The failure we’re looking for

Strategic-sounding aspirations without a diagnosis or a choice

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review