11 of 13 checks passed
Output
Churn Discovery Calls: Discussion Guide
For: exec team (read before calls start), interviewers, note-takers Timeline: week 0 for data pull and recruiting, weeks 1–3 for calls, week 4 for synthesis and recommendation
Why we're doing this
Both bets rest on a theory we haven't tested. The data we have can't settle it:
- The exit survey doesn't separate the theories. "Missing features or integrations" (46%) was listed first, it was a single choice, and it combines robotics with every other feature gap. The free-text box was almost always left blank.
- The robotics evidence is thin for churn. 3 churned customers moved to a competitor with robotics integrations. That is 3 of roughly 60 churned accounts. The 9 lost new-logo deals are about acquisition, not churn.
- The implementation evidence is a correlation. Customers who went live after 90 days churned at 2.4× the rate. But complex customers may both take longer to go live and churn more for other reasons.
- We don't know when or why the leave decision formed. That is the question the calls exist to answer.
Twelve calls can show us how customers decide to leave. They can't show us how many leave for each reason. The CRM pull below fills that gap, and the calls and the data should be read together.
1. Learning goals
- When did the leave decision form, and what triggered it? In the first months or later? During implementation, after go-live, or around an automation project?
- Does implementation delay cause churn, or just come with it? If delay mattered, was the cause on our side (fixable by Bet B) or on theirs (data readiness, their staffing)?
- Is automation a real driver? Are customers actually automating? Did Crate's lack of robot integration block them, or did it come up afterwards as a reason?
- Do signers and daily users tell the same story? Executives may cite strategy (automation). Operations managers may cite experience (implementation, usability).
- Are the reasons something else entirely? For example: price, support, acquisition, consolidation, or a non-robotics feature gap.
2. Changes to the plan
1. Pull CRM data in week 0, before the first call. For every account that churned in the last 12 months, pull: - tenure at churn - days from signing to go-live - whether they run or were deploying automation (ask CS and account managers) - where they went
Also answer one question: did the rise from 11% to 18% churn come from first-year customers? If it did, that supports Bet B. If the increase is among long-tenured accounts, that points toward Bet A. This may be the most decisive single fact we get, and it costs a day.
2. Replace at-risk accounts that are in renewal talks. Five of the six are negotiating discounts. They have a reason to exaggerate complaints, and a call with them could easily drift into pricing. Use red-health accounts that are not in active renewal. If there aren't enough of those, add churned accounts instead.
3. Fix the call count. The plan says 12 calls, but two people on each of 12 accounts is 24 calls. Within the 12, I propose 8 accounts:
| Group | Accounts | Who we interview | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Churned, paired | 4 | Signer and ops manager, separately | 8 |
| Churned, signer only | 2 | Signer | 2 |
| At-risk, not in renewal | 2 | Signer | 2 |
- Split the churned accounts so that 3 left in their first year and 3 left later.
- Include at least one account that moved to a competitor with robotics integrations.
- Signers get priority because they made the decision.
- The paired accounts let us compare what the signer says with what the daily user saw.
- If we can fund 24 calls, pair every account.
4. Ana should not interview her own contacts. Anyone will soften or reshape their story when the CEO asks, especially a CEO they know and whose view they may already have heard. Her contacts also aren't a random sample of the people who left.
My suggestion: - Her contacts can enter the pool if they fit the sampling groups, but a neutral interviewer runs those calls. - Ana and Marcus both listen to the recordings. - If Ana wants to speak with former customers personally, those calls are valuable for the relationship. We run them in addition to the 12 and don't count them as research.
The same rule applies to Marcus: neither exec interviews.
5. Offer a thank-you gift to former customers, such as a gift card. It must not be a credit or discount on Crate.
3. Discussion guide: VP Ops / COO (signer), 45 minutes
0–3 min · Opening - Ask permission to record. If they say no, don't record and take notes only. - Say: "This isn't a sales call. I can't discuss pricing or our product plans. I'm here to understand your experience, good and bad."
3–8 min · Context - "Tell me about your business and how it's changed over the last two years." - "What were your biggest operational priorities this past year?"
8–22 min · The decision story (the core of the call) - Churned: "Take me back to the first moment you started to wonder whether Crate was right for you. What was going on?" - At-risk: "Tell me about the last time you seriously questioned renewing." - Build a timeline with follow-ups: - "When was that, relative to signing?" - "What happened next?" - "Who else was involved?" - "What alternatives did you look at?" - "When was the decision final?" - "What finally tipped it?"
22–30 min · Expectations and early months - "When you signed, what did you expect Crate to do for you, and by when?" - "How did going live compare to what you expected?" - "When, if ever, did you first see the value you signed up for?"
30–37 min · Operational direction - "What investments in the warehouse have you made or planned: equipment, systems, staffing?" - "What did you need your WMS to do as part of those?" - If they mention automation: "How did Crate fit, or not? What did you do about it?"
37–42 min · Prompted check - Hand over a card of possible reasons: implementation time, robotics/automation integration, other missing features, ease of use, support, price, business change. - Rotate the order on every call. The survey showed the first option gets picked more. - Ask: "Pick the top three for you." Then: "Which one, if it had been different, would have changed the outcome?"
42–45 min · Close - "What should I have asked?" - "Who else should we talk to?" - Thank them.
4. Discussion guide: Warehouse operations manager, 45 minutes
0–3 min · Opening - Same as the signer call: recording permission and ground rules.
3–10 min · Daily work - "Walk me through a typical day using Crate." - "What other tools or spreadsheets did you use alongside it?"
10–22 min · Implementation story - "Tell me what happened from signing to go-live." - "What took longest?" - "What were you waiting on, and who was it waiting on?" - "When did it start working the way you needed?" - Get specific episodes, not a verdict. Always ask whether a delay came from us, from them, or from a third party.
22–32 min · Gaps and workarounds - "Tell me about the last time Crate got in your way." - "What equipment or automation runs on your floor? How does information move between it and Crate?" - "What manual steps did that create?"
32–37 min · The decision - "Were you part of the decision to leave or renew? What would you have told leadership?"
37–42 min · Prompted check - Same card as the signer call, with a new random order.
42–45 min · Close - Same as the signer call.
5. Guidance for interviewers
Stay neutral - Don't say "robotics," "automation," or "implementation" before the prompted check, unless the interviewee says it first. What people raise unprompted is our strongest evidence. - Ask about specific past events ("the last time…", "walk me through…"), not opinions or hypotheticals. Treat "we'd have stayed if you'd had X" as weak evidence. - Use their words, not ours. Don't correct them or defend Crate. - In paired accounts, use different interviewers where possible. Never tell the second person what the first one said.
Stay within the rules from Legal and CS - Pricing or discounts: "That's outside what I can cover today. I'll let your account team know you'd like to discuss it." Then tell CS. - Roadmap: "I can't speak to product plans, but I'll make sure what you've said reaches the people who make them." Never promise a feature. - If there's no recording consent, don't record. The note-taker writes verbatim quotes where possible.
Process - A note-taker joins every call. - Within 24 hours, fill in the debrief template: - primary reason, in their words - the decision timeline, with the month the doubt started - robotics raised unprompted? (Y/N) - implementation raised unprompted? (Y/N) - was the delay caused by us, them, or both? - top three from the card - the best quote - Hold a 30-minute team review of the debriefs every Friday.
6. What would back each bet
Each account gets classified by its primary cause, meaning the thing that started or tipped the decision. When signer and ops manager disagree, record both views; don't average them.
Back Bet A (robotics) if: - In at least 3 of the 6 churned accounts, automation was raised unprompted and came before the leave decision. - The customer had a live or funded automation project that Crate blocked or made harder. - Ops managers describe concrete workarounds between robots and Crate. - The CRM pull shows churn concentrated in longer-tenured accounts, with meaningfully more automating churners than the 3 we already know about. - Warning sign: robotics only comes up at the card, or appears in the timeline after the decision was already made. That suggests it's a justification, not a cause.
Back Bet B (implementation) if: - In at least 3 of the 6 churned accounts, doubt formed during or soon after a slow implementation, often phrased as "never saw the value" or "lost confidence." - Ops managers put the main delays on our side: our process, staffing, data migration, or configuration. Those are what a rebuild would fix. - The CRM pull shows the rise in churn comes mostly from first-year customers. - Warning sign: delays were mostly on the customer's side (their data wasn't ready, they didn't have staff). A faster process on our end would then help less than the 2.4× figure suggests.
Back neither if: - Primary causes are spread across several reasons with no clear lead, such as price, support, consolidation or acquisition, or a feature gap unrelated to robotics. - Or signers and ops managers consistently tell different stories that neither bet addresses.
In that case, I'd recommend a smaller fix aimed at whichever cause leads, plus a better-designed exit survey, rather than committing two squads on a weak signal.
If both show up: check whether automating customers are also the ones with the slowest implementations. If they are, those customers' problem is really integration work during setup, and the recommendation should address that directly instead of forcing a choice between A and B.
In week 4, I'll bring the exec team a one-page summary that combines the call findings with the CRM figures, a recommendation, and our confidence in it.
Check by check
Mixed · 2
- Respects explicit constraintsThe two graders disagreed on this one.
- Fits the callThe two graders disagreed on this one.
Got right · 11
- Uses the supplied evidence correctly
- Addresses the actual decision
- Identifies material uncertainty
- Avoids unsupported claims
- Produces the required deliverable
- Tests both theories fairly
- Different questions for user and signer
- Protects the calls and the accounts
- Designed to falsify
- Asks what people did, not what they think
- Doesn't lead the witness
Grades and run details
Decision model 92
Decision model checks
- passUses the supplied evidence correctly8%
- passAddresses the actual decision20%
- partialRespects explicit constraints25%
- passIdentifies material uncertainty100%
- passAvoids unsupported claims71%
- passProduces the required deliverable81%
- passTests both theories fairly99%
- passDifferent questions for user and signer100%
- passProtects the calls and the accounts99%
- passDesigned to falsify76%
- passAsks what people did, not what they think92%
- passDoesn't lead the witness43%
- partialFits the call32%
Run
- Run
- #1
- Time to output
- 1.7 min
- Submitted
- 30 Sept 2026