Tasks / Product Craft

Customer research call guide

Can the model write a guide that uncovers behaviour rather than opinions?

Task type v1.0 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 18 graded outputs by 9 models. 33% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Asks what people did, not what they think96% pass
    Core questions ask for specific recent actions and events ('What happened next?', 'Who did you call?'), not opinions or predictions.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · Why are warehouses leaving? Two execs, two theories
  2. Tests both theories fairly92% pass
    Both theories get questions that could disprove them (e.g., no action on robotics, happiness after slow go-live), and open-ended timeline questions leave room for a third cause.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · Why are warehouses leaving? Two execs, two theories
  3. Different questions for user and signer92% pass
    The guide has distinct tracks: daily user questions focus on day-to-day experience and workarounds, signer questions on the decision process and alternatives.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · Why are warehouses leaving? Two execs, two theories

Where it slips

  1. Marks what to cut if the call runs over28% pass
    The guide includes timed sections that add up to 45 minutes but does not say what to cut if time runs short, nor does it mark must-ask questions.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Why are warehouses leaving? Two execs, two theories
  2. Doesn't trust the default reason47% pass
    The plan names the pre-selected default as a bias but does not use the behaviour columns to show that most 'too expensive' cancellers had stopped cooking; it only picks two contrasting individuals without the aggregate pattern.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Too expensive, by default
  3. Uses the supplied evidence correctly61% pass
    The claim 'Customers will say what helps their negotiation' is an unsupported behavioural statement not derived from the context.
    Haiku 5.5 · API · Why are warehouses leaving? Two execs, two theories

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

  1. Designed to falsify

    For each learning goal, does the guide include a question whose honest answer could show the team's hypothesis is wrong?

    Passes when Every learning goal has at least one disconfirming, non-leading question, such as asking about the last time they had the problem and what they did instead.

  2. Asks what people did, not what they think

    Are the core questions about specific things the person actually did recently, rather than opinions, predictions or hypotheticals?

    Passes when The core of the guide asks for recent, specific instances (the last time, what happened, what they did) and follows up on them; opinions and predictions are absent or clearly secondary.

  3. Doesn't lead the witness

    Are the questions free of leading wording, of pitching the idea, and of hints at the answer the team hopes for?

    Passes when Questions are neutral and open, and the idea is not described (or only at the very end, after the problem questions).

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · Marks what to cut if the call runs over · and 3 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're a Staff PM at Crate. In four weeks, the exec team decides which of two bets gets our two squads next half, and both bets rest on a theory of why customers are leaving. We have three weeks for 12 customer calls of 45 minutes. Write the guide for them. It should include: the learning goals; the questions, with timings, for the two kinds of people we'll talk to; guidance for whoever runs the calls; any changes you'd make to the plan below; and what we'd need to hear to back each bet, or neither. Keep it under 1,500 words. The exec team will read it before the calls start.

What the model was given8 items: About Crate, The decision, CEO, Ana Ferreira, CPO, Marcus Hill, Exit survey (41 churned customers, last 12 months), Implementation and CRM data, The call plan, Notes from Customer Success and Legal
About CrateWarehouse management software for mid-size third-party logistics companies (3PLs). 340 customers, $22M ARR. Gross logo churn rose from 11% to 18% over the last year.
The decisionBet A: integrations with warehouse robotics (autonomous carts, pick-assist robots). Bet B: rebuild implementation so customers go live faster. Two squads for the next half go to one of them.
CEO, Ana Ferreira“We're losing warehouses because they're automating and we don't talk to their robots. Every lost customer I've spoken to mentions it.”
CPO, Marcus Hill“We lose them in the first year because implementation takes forever. They're gone before they ever see the value.”
Exit survey (41 churned customers, last 12 months)A single-choice question, 'Why are you leaving?'. Missing features or integrations: 46%. Too hard to implement: 22%. Price: 17%. Other: 15% (free-text box, left blank by all but two). 'Missing features or integrations' was the first option in the list.
Implementation and CRM dataMedian time from signing to go-live: 94 days; the contract promises 45. Customers who went live after 90 days churned at 2.4× the rate of the rest in their first year. 3 churned customers moved to a competitor with robotics integrations; robotics was cited in 9 lost new-logo deals. We don't know when in the year churned customers decided to leave.
The call plan12 calls: 6 with customers who churned in the last 9 months, 6 with at-risk customers (health score red). On each account we want to talk to the warehouse operations manager who used Crate every day and, separately, the VP of Operations or COO who signed the contract. Ana wants to run 4 of the calls with former customers she knows personally.
Notes from Customer Success and Legal5 of the 6 at-risk accounts are in renewal talks, and Customer Success is offering them discounts. Interviewers must not discuss pricing, discounts or what's on our roadmap. Every call must start by asking permission to record.
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

A guide that tests both theories fairly and leaves room for a third: the goals ask what actually drove each decision to leave or doubt, when it happened, and who made it, with questions that could disprove robotics (did they automate, did robots come up before they decided, what did they switch to and why) and implementation (how long go-live took, what happened in those months, whether value arrived) alike. It treats the exit survey as weak evidence (single choice, integrations listed first, 'Other' left blank) and the 2.4× figure as a correlation to probe, not a cause. The core is a timeline of the account: the story from signing to the moment they decided to leave or started doubting, with sequential probes. It has separate tracks for the daily user (what went wrong day to day) and the signer (how the decision was made, what alternatives they weighed), fits 45 minutes with timings, and opens with consent to record. It guards the calls: no pitching, pricing, discounts or roadmap promises, with a script for when an at-risk customer asks, and it addresses Ana's bias: she has a public view and personal relationships, so she should observe or take notes rather than lead, or at minimum use the same script and have her calls read separately. It ends with decision signals: what pattern across the 12 would back Bet A, what would back Bet B, and what would back neither (price, a business change, a missing capability that isn't robotics).

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Includes questions that promise roadmap items or discuss pricing or discounts with customers in renewal talks
  • Asks customers to choose between robotics and implementation as the reason they left
Task

Staff-level · v1.3

The outputs

9 setups answered this brief.

Needs more than a quick edit11 of 13 checks passed

Must-ask questions aren't marked and there's no guidance on what to drop if a 45-minute call runs over. A PM would need to add priority markers and cut instructions before running the calls.

Output

TO: Crate Executive Team FROM: Staff PM DATE: October 24, 2023 SUBJECT: Research Guide: H1 Bet Allocation & Churn Investigation

---

1. Learning Goals

Our existing data is noisy. The exit survey suffers from primacy bias (“Missing features/integrations” is the first option and bundles robotics with basic APIs/ERPs). Meanwhile, our CRM shows a strong correlation between >90-day implementations and churn, and robotics appears more often in lost new-logo deals (9) than confirmed churn (3).

Over the next three weeks, these calls must uncover: 1. The "Point of No Return": When in the lifecycle did the customer mentally commit to leaving, and what specific operational event triggered it? 2. Implementation Reality: What caused the gap between the 45-day promise and the 94-day reality? Is slow implementation a root cause of churn, or a symptom of a deeper product mismatch? 3. The "Missing Integration" Truth: For those who cited integrations, what specific systems failed to connect? How many actually bought or deployed warehouse robotics? 4. Post-Churn Ground Truth: What did churned customers switch to, how long did the replacement take to go live, and are they using robotics today?

---

2. Recommended Changes to the Call Plan

To get unbiased data within 12 calls, we must adjust the proposed plan:

  • Split the persona tracks across 8–10 accounts (Don't double up on 12): If we interview both the VP and the Ops Manager separately on each account, 12 calls only covers 6 accounts (3 churned, 3 at-risk)—too small a sample. Instead, target 8 churned accounts and 4 at-risk accounts, interviewing the VP on 6 and the Ops Manager on 6 (overlapping on 2–3 accounts to cross-verify stories).
  • Drop the 5 at-risk accounts in active renewal negotiations: Interviewing customers while CS is actively negotiating discounts with them is high-risk. Economic buyers will use the call as leverage to complain about price or demand roadmap commitments, skewing the data. Replace them with 1st-year customers who took >90 days to go live (regardless of health score) or churned customers from months 9–12.
  • Ana should not lead calls with personal contacts: Ana, your relationships are invaluable for securing these interviews, so we’d love your warm intros. However, former customers who like you personally will try to spare your feelings (blaming an external trend like "we needed robotics" rather than saying "your onboarding team failed us"). A neutral PM should lead all calls; execs can join as silent observers or listen to the recordings.
  • Sample across implementation times: Ensure the 8 churned accounts include both <60-day and >90-day implementations so we don't pre-validate Bet B.

---

3. Interview Guides (45 Minutes)

#### Track A: Economic Buyer (VP of Ops / COO) — 6 Calls Focus: ROI expectations, contract promises, strategic tech stack, and the switching decision.

  • 0–3m | Intro & Legal: Thank them for their time. Emphasize that this is a product research call, not a sales/renewal call. Ask permission to record.
  • 3–10m | The Buying Thesis:
  • "Take me back to when you signed with Crate. What was broken in your warehouse that you needed us to fix?"
  • "What were your expectations for how quickly Crate would be up and running?"
  • 10–22m | The Implementation Experience:
  • "Our contract promises a 45-day go-live. Walk me through what actually happened during your rollout."
  • If delayed: "What was the single biggest bottleneck? How did that delay impact your business and your team’s trust in Crate?"
  • 22–35m | The Turning Point & Tech Stack:
  • For Churned: "When did you first realize Crate wasn't going to work out long-term? What happened that week?"
  • For At-Risk: "As you look at your operations today, where is Crate falling short of what you signed up for?"
  • "What other software or hardware did you need Crate to talk to?" (Do not mention robotics first; see if they bring it up).
  • 35–42m | The Aftermath & Automation (Probing Bet A):
  • For Churned: "What system did you move to, and how was their implementation by comparison?"
  • "Where does warehouse automation or robotics—like autonomous carts or pick-assist—fit into your current operations or 12-month plan?" (If they have them: "Did Crate's lack of integration factor into your decision to leave?")
  • 42–45m | Wrap-up: "If you were in our shoes and could fix only one thing for mid-size 3PLs over the next six months, what would it be?"

#### Track B: Daily User (Warehouse Operations Manager) — 6 Calls Focus: Day-to-day friction, rollout reality on the floor, and manual workarounds.

  • 0–3m | Intro & Legal: Set a candid, blame-free tone. Ask permission to record.
  • 3–12m | Go-Live on the Floor:
  • "Were you involved in setting up Crate? Walk me through what it took to get your first warehouse workflow live."
  • "At what point did you feel your floor staff actually trusted the system?"
  • 12–27m | Daily Friction & Workarounds:
  • "Walk me through a typical peak day using Crate. Where did the software slow your team down?"
  • "What tasks were you forced to do outside of Crate—in spreadsheets or on paper—because the software couldn't handle it?"
  • 27–38m | Equipment & Integrations:
  • "What other tools, scanners, ERPs, or floor equipment did you use alongside Crate?"
  • "Did you have to manually move data between Crate and other systems? Which ones?"
  • "Are you using any autonomous carts or robotics on the floor today, or testing them?"
  • 38–45m | The Verdict:
  • For Churned: "When leadership decided to replace Crate, was your team relieved or frustrated? Why?"
  • For At-Risk: "If you could wave a magic wand and fix one bottleneck in how Crate runs your floor tomorrow, what would it be?"

---

4. Guidance for Interviewers

1. Legal & CS Guardrails (Strict): * Always get explicit verbal consent to record at the start. * Never discuss pricing, discounts, or commercial terms. If an at-risk customer brings up their renewal, say: "I’m completely firewalled from commercial discussions so I can focus purely on product feedback. I’ll make sure your CS manager follows up on the renewal side." * Never mention our roadmap or hint that we are debating Robotics vs. Implementation. 2. Don't Lead the Witness: Do not use the words "robotics" or "94-day implementation" until the final 10 minutes of the call. Let them name the pain first. If they say "integrations," ask "Which specific tools?" before assuming they mean hardware. 3. Hunt for Past Behavior, Not Future Wishes: Discount hypothetical statements like "We’d love to look at robotics next year." Focus on concrete actions: "Did you sign a vendor contract for robots?" or "How many hours a week did your team spend fixing data imports during onboarding?" 4. Two People Per Call: One interviewer drives; one silent note-taker logs verbatim quotes and timestamps in our research repository immediately after the call.

---

5. Decision Framework: How We Will Score the Evidence

After the 12 calls, we will map the findings against this rubric to allocate the two squads:

#### What we need to hear to back Bet A (Robotics Integrations): * Active Deployment: At least 4 of the 12 accounts either actively use warehouse robotics today, are in a paid pilot, or migrated to a competitor specifically and demonstrably to connect to robotics hardware. * Retention Blocker: At-risk customers state that robotics integration is a hard requirement for their upcoming 12-month operations, not just a "nice to have" for 3 years from now. * Implementation Was Survivable: Customers who took >90 days to go live tell us that while onboarding was painful, they eventually stabilized and only left because they outgrew our automation capabilities.

#### What we need to hear to back Bet B (Rebuild Implementation): * Early "Point of No Return": Churned customers report that executive trust was broken during a drawn-out onboarding (months 2–4), and they began shopping for replacements before month 6—meaning they never reached full adoption. * Software-Fixable Bottlenecks: The reasons for the 94-day median go-live are things engineering squads can actually solve (e.g., broken data migration tools, rigid warehouse configuration, self-serve setup gaps) rather than pure services/staffing issues. * Misattributed Survey Data: When we unpack "Missing features/integrations" from the exit survey, we find customers were actually frustrated that initial setup of standard integrations took months during onboarding.

#### What we need to hear to back NEITHER (Pivot the Roadmap): * Software vs. Services on Bet B: Implementation takes 94 days because customers have messy data or our Implementation Managers are understaffed—problems solved by hiring or process changes, not two engineering squads. * A Hidden Third Driver: "Missing features/integrations" turns out to be a core software gap unrelated to robotics (e.g., 3PL billing, client portals, or basic ERP/WMS syncs like NetSuite or Shopify), while robotics is exposed as a shiny object mainly affecting a small subset of new-logo sales.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • The exit survey option 'Missing features/integrations' bundles robotics with basic APIs/ERPs

Grades and run details

Decision model 85 · LLM judge 79
Decision model checks
  • partialUses the supplied evidence correctly11%
  • passAddresses the actual decision70%
  • passRespects explicit constraints9%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty98%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims40%
  • passProduces the required deliverable83%
  • passTests both theories fairly92%
  • passDifferent questions for user and signer100%
  • passProtects the calls and the accounts98%
  • passDesigned to falsify70%
  • passAsks what people did, not what they think92%
  • partialDoesn't lead the witness25%
  • partialMarks what to cut if the call runs over53%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
27 s
Submitted
13 Oct 2026

Needs more than a quick edit9 of 13 checks passed

A PM could use most of it after light edits, but the unsupported data-source claim and missing must-ask/cut guidance require re-checking and revision before running the calls.

Output

Crate churn research: decision guide

Decision: In four weeks, allocate two squads next half to robotics integrations (A), implementation redesign (B), or conclude that neither retention thesis is sufficiently supported.

Research window: Three weeks; twelve 45-minute interviews. These calls will test explanations and reconstruct decisions—not estimate how common each churn cause is across 340 customers.

1. Learning goals

  1. Reconstruct the departure sequence: What happened between signing, implementation, first value, operational problems, searching for alternatives, and deciding to leave?
  2. Identify the decisive mechanism: Was robotics incompatibility or implementation friction necessary to the departure, merely contributory, or a justification offered afterward?
  3. Find actionable scope: Which integrations or implementation changes could plausibly have prevented the problem? Could two squads address them within a half?
  4. Look for competing explanations and counterexamples: Other missing capabilities, service failures, customer-side constraints, or business changes may explain both delays and churn.
  5. Separate operational pain from buying decisions: Did daily users and economic buyers experience the same problem and agree on why the relationship failed?

Starting evidence is suggestive, not conclusive. The survey’s broad, first-listed integration option does not establish robotics demand. The 2.4× churn association does not establish that delays caused churn. Competitor destinations do not establish purchase motives; nine lost prospects are acquisition evidence, not retention evidence.

2. Changes to the call plan

Resolve the interview arithmetic. Twelve accounts with two separate interviews each would require 24 calls. Within the limit, recruit six accounts, interviewing both roles separately: twelve calls total.

Use four churned accounts and two at-risk accounts. This prioritizes actual decisions and reduces exposure to active renewal negotiations while retaining prospective evidence.

Select accounts purposively from the eligible pool, not through executive relationships:

  • Include late and on-time go-lives, plus a failed/never-live implementation if available.
  • Include known robotics signals and accounts without them.
  • Include first-year and longer-tenure departures.
  • Seek counterexamples: late implementation without abandonment; robotics discussion without an actual deployment or switch.

Do not attempt a fully balanced matrix with six accounts. Document selection, refusals, substitutions, and gaps. Check whether the nine-month churn window excludes relevant cases from the annual churn rise; expand to twelve months if needed.

For at-risk accounts, prioritize the one outside renewal talks. CS must confirm that participation—or refusal—will not affect commercial treatment. If a renewal makes independent research impractical, substitute another eligible account.

Ana should not lead interviews with former customers she knows. Use a neutral researcher or PM who owns neither bet. Ana can help recruit through a standard invitation and review consented recordings afterward. Avoid executive attendance that could suppress criticism.

Before calls, prepare a factual account timeline from CRM, implementation logs, support records, and available usage data. Keep interpretations separate. Examine cohort definitions and potential confounders behind the 2.4× figure.

3. Interview guides

Both guides total 45 minutes. Ask open questions first; introduce the two hypotheses only after the participant’s unaided account.

Guide A: Warehouse operations manager

TimeQuestions
0–4 minFirst words, before recording: “May we record this conversation for internal research? Saying no is completely fine; we can take notes instead.” Wait for permission before starting recording. Explain that this is research, not a sales or renewal conversation; participation is optional. “What did you personally own, and during which period?”
4–10 min“What was happening in the warehouse when you chose Crate? What job did you expect it to improve? How would you have recognized success?”
10–20 min“Walk me through signing to the first real production use.” Probe planned versus actual milestones, dependencies, workarounds, ownership, and first useful outcome. “Tell me about a specific day when progress stalled. What happened next?” If never live, trace the last completed milestone and stopping point.
20–30 minChurned: “When did you first think Crate might not work for you? Describe the incident. What happened between that and leaving?” At-risk: “How is Crate working today? Describe the most recent serious problem. Has anyone discussed changing systems? What has actually happened so far?” For both: “What did this cost operationally—time, throughput, errors, or customer commitments? Who saw it?”
30–39 min“What changes in equipment or workflow occurred during this period?” Then probe robotics neutrally: “Were robots evaluated or deployed? Which systems, for what workflow, and when? What specifically could Crate not do? What workaround did you try?” Separately: “Once implementation ended—or stalled—what problems remained?” Do not assume either issue existed.
39–45 min“Which issue mattered most, and what makes you say that? If only that issue had been resolved then, what would still have made Crate unsuitable?” Ask for optional, redacted supporting artifacts and names of decision participants. Summarize the timeline and invite corrections: “What important explanation have I missed?”

Guide B: VP Operations or COO

TimeQuestions
0–4 minUse the same recording-permission opening and research boundaries. “What was your role in selection, implementation oversight, and the decision to stay or leave?”
4–10 min“What business outcome justified choosing Crate? What deadline or event made that outcome important? What expectations were set?”
10–22 minChurned: “Walk me from the first concern to the decision to leave. When was that decision effectively made, rather than formally communicated? Who influenced it? What alternatives did you evaluate?” At-risk: “How are you evaluating whether Crate is working? Has a change been proposed or authorized? What evidence and next steps are involved?” Separate firsthand knowledge from reports by others.
22–31 min“What specific event most changed your confidence? What did you do afterward? What attempts were made to recover the relationship?” Churned: “What did you choose instead, and what requirement made it preferable? Is it operating successfully yet?” At-risk: “What requirements would any alternative have to meet?”
31–39 minTest both explanations, varying their order between interviews. “What role, if any, did implementation timing play? When did it affect your judgment?” “What role, if any, did warehouse automation play? Was there an approved project, named equipment, deployment date, or demonstrated integration requirement?” “Which problems would have remained if each had been solved?”
39–45 min“What would Crate have needed to change, by what date, to alter your decision?” Treat this counterfactual as weaker evidence than actions already taken. “What evidence might contradict your explanation?” Request optional artifacts, recap, and invite corrections.

4. Interviewer operating rules

  • Be curious, not persuasive. Do not quote Ana, Marcus, survey percentages, or the churn correlation.
  • Probe concrete events: “When?” “Who?” “What happened next?” “How do you know?” Distinguish recollection, inference, and observed action.
  • Do not discuss pricing, discounts, or roadmap commitments. If raised: “I can’t discuss commercial terms or future plans here; your account team can handle those separately.” Do not promise escalation outcomes.
  • Interview roles separately; do not reveal the other person’s answers. Disagreement is evidence to investigate, not average away.
  • Use a neutral note-taker. After each call, record chronology, spontaneous versus prompted reasons, supporting evidence, contradictions, and confidence.

5. Evidence required for the decision

Back A if multiple independent accounts—including actual departures—show committed robotics adoption, a specific blocking Crate incompatibility before the departure decision, failed workarounds, and credible evidence that resolving it would have preserved the relationship. Shared, feasible integration needs must emerge. Generic “missing features,” aspirational automation, or competitor capabilities alone do not qualify.

Back B if multiple accounts—including actual departures—show preventable implementation failures preceding loss of confidence, concrete operational consequences, and a credible path from faster successful activation to retention. Identify repeatable Crate-owned bottlenecks. Delays driven mainly by customer readiness, complexity, or already-failing relationships weaken this case.

Back neither if accounts remain contradictory, both theories depend on hypothetical claims, another mechanism dominates, or neither intervention fits the capacity and time available. If both qualify, compare affected retention exposure, intervention feasibility, and remaining uncertainty—not interview vote totals.

Run two pilot calls in week one, finish most interviews in week two, and reserve week three for remaining calls and synthesis. Produce one evidence sheet per account; paired interviews count as one account, not two confirmations. The final readout should combine those cases with cohort data, explicitly separate causality from correlation, and state what remains unproven before recommending either allocation.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • Support records and usage data exist and can be used to prepare account timelines.

Grades and run details

Decision model 96 · LLM judge 64
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly41%
  • passAddresses the actual decision64%
  • passRespects explicit constraints18%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty100%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims64%
  • passProduces the required deliverable83%
  • passTests both theories fairly100%
  • passDifferent questions for user and signer100%
  • passProtects the calls and the accounts100%
  • passDesigned to falsify80%
  • passAsks what people did, not what they think100%
  • passDoesn't lead the witness59%
  • partialMarks what to cut if the call runs over55%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
60 s
Submitted
1 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit13 of 13 checks passed

The guide is thorough, respects all constraints, and provides actionable scripts and decision criteria. A PM could use it with only minor wording tweaks.

Output

Crate churn calls: interview guide

Purpose: Decide between Bet A (robotics integrations) and Bet B (faster implementation) by learning why customers actually leave. Neither theory is proven yet.

Why we're not already sure

  • Exit survey: "Missing features or integrations" bundles two things, isn't robotics-specific, was listed first, and has only 41 responses. People also tend to name the most recent or most socially easy reason rather than the first cause.
  • Robotics: 3 of roughly 60 churned accounts went to a robotics competitor. The 9 lost deals are real but are new-logo losses, not churn.
  • Implementation: The 2.4× churn gap after 90+ days is a correlation. Complex sites may be both slow to launch and likely to leave. We also don't know when customers decided to leave.
  • Ana's and Marcus's evidence: Each is anecdotal and selected. Ana hears from customers who will talk to the CEO.
  • The two theories may be linked. Robotics-heavy sites may be the slow implementations.

Learning goals

  1. When and why each account first considered leaving, relative to go-live.
  2. Whether automation was a cause, a rationalization, or irrelevant. The test is whether they took action (bought robots, evaluated replacements), not whether they mention it.
  3. Whether slow go-live caused the exit, and whether the delay was Crate's doing or the customer's (their data, staffing, customizations).
  4. What else drives exits: price, support, core product gaps, or events outside our control, such as a 3PL losing a shipper contract or being acquired.
  5. Whether the two causes overlap.

Changes to the plan

  • Call math. Two roles per account means 12 calls covers only 6 accounts. I'd use 8 accounts: 4 churned accounts with both roles (8 calls), and 4 at-risk accounts with the operations manager only (4 calls). At-risk executives are the people in renewal negotiations, which is where contamination risk is highest. Comparing what the signer and the daily user each say is itself valuable.
  • Recruit on criteria, not convenience. Among churned accounts, aim for 2 that left within 12 months of signing and 2 that left later. Include go-lives both over and under 90 days, at least 2 sites with robots or carts, and at least 1 that chose "price" in the survey. Pull this from CRM and Customer Success notes this week.
  • Ana doesn't run calls. Customers who know the CEO will be polite, and she has a stated hypothesis. Her relationships are valuable for introductions, and at most 1–2 of her contacts should be in the churned set. Someone with no stake in either bet runs the calls, with a second person taking notes. Ana and Marcus get recordings and summaries afterward.
  • At-risk accounts need Customer Success coordination. CS confirms no discount conversation is happening that week. The invitation states that this is research, separate from renewal. If a customer tries to negotiate, redirect and tell CS afterward. Weight at-risk answers less, since they describe intentions, not decisions.
  • Pre-register. Before call one, Ana and Marcus each read the last section and write what would change their mind.
  • Run a parallel data pull. Get tenure at churn, go-live days, and robotics on site for all roughly 60 churned accounts. If the calls and the data disagree, the data wins.

Guidance for whoever runs the calls

  • Consent first. The first thing you say after your name is a request to record. If they decline, take notes only and continue.
  • Off-limits: pricing, discounts, and roadmap. If they raise price, listen and ask what they compared us with and what they got, but no numbers or offers. If asked "will you build X?", say: "I can't speak to plans. I'm here to understand your experience." If they ask for a commercial conversation, point them to their account manager.
  • Do not say "robotics" or "implementation" until the prompted section. Record whether each topic came up unprompted or only when asked. These carry very different weight.
  • Alternate the order of the two prompted topics from call to call.
  • Ask for stories and dates, not opinions: "Tell me about the last time," "What happened next?" Favor actions ("Who did you call? What did you buy?") over stated reasons.
  • Don't defend Crate or fix problems. Answer criticism with "Say more about that."
  • Use silence. Wait a few seconds after an answer; the real reason often comes next.
  • Debrief within 24 hours on a one-page sheet: decision date, tenure, go-live days, robots on site, trigger event, unprompted causes, prompted causes, strongest quote, and anything that contradicts our hypotheses.

Guide: Operations manager (daily user), 45 min

TimeSectionQuestions
0:00–0:03OpenAsk permission to record. "I'm [name] from Crate's product team. I'm here to learn, not sell, and nothing you say affects your account. I can't discuss pricing or plans."
0:03–0:08ContextTell me about your site and your role. What does a normal day look like? What equipment and systems run alongside Crate?
0:08–0:20Start-up storyTake me back to when you started with Crate. What happened between signing and running real orders? What got delayed, and why? Who was involved on each side? When did it first feel like it was working?
0:20–0:32Doubt timelineWhen did you first wonder if Crate was the right system? Where were you and what happened? What did you do next, and who did you talk to? (Churned: what was the last straw? At-risk: have you looked at alternatives, and what prompted that?)
0:32–0:39Prompted topicsAutomation: Do you use, or plan to use, robots, autonomous carts, or pick-assist? What's in place, and when did it arrive? How did it work with Crate, and what did you do about it? Setup: Looking back, how did the time to get live affect your team or your view of Crate? (Skip anything already covered in depth.)
0:39–0:43CounterfactualWhat one thing would have kept you? (At-risk: what would need to change for you to be confident staying?) Has anything you've seen elsewhere worked better?
0:43–0:45CloseWhat haven't I asked that I should have? Who else should I talk to? Thank them.

Guide: VP Operations / COO (signer), 45 min

TimeSectionQuestions
0:00–0:03OpenSame as above. Ask permission to record first.
0:03–0:08ContextTell me about your business and your customers. How has the past year changed things for you?
0:08–0:18BuyingWhy did you choose Crate? What did you hope would be different after 6–12 months? What were you told about go-live, and what happened? How did you know whether it was working?
0:18–0:30DecisionWalk me through the decision to leave (or to reconsider). When did it first come up, and who raised it? What did you look at? Which alternatives did you consider? Who made the final call, and when? What would have changed the outcome?
0:30–0:38Prompted topicsAutomation: What's your automation plan over the next 2–3 years? What's happened so far? How did it figure in the decision? Setup: How did the time to go live figure in your thinking, if at all? (Skip anything already covered in depth.)
0:38–0:43Business contextWhat else changed around then: shipper contracts won or lost, sites opened or closed, leadership, budget, acquisitions? If you ranked everything that mattered, what's first? What do you use now, and why?
0:43–0:45CloseAnything I missed? Thank them.

What we'd need to hear

Eight accounts can't produce percentages. We're looking for a pattern strong enough to act on.

Back Bet A (robotics) if, in at least 3 of the 4 churned accounts: - Automation comes up unprompted, or with only light prompting, as a reason. - They acted on it: robots bought, piloted, or contracted before they decided to leave. - They were live and broadly content with Crate beforehand. - They evaluated or moved to something that connects to their robots, and say they'd likely have stayed if we had. - The same story appears in at least 2 of the 4 at-risk accounts.

Back Bet B (implementation) if, in at least 3 of the 4 churned accounts: - Their first serious doubt came during or shortly after a late go-live, typically within the first year. - They describe never reaching value, or losing their internal champion during the delay. - The delay was mainly Crate's doing (process, handoffs, configuration), not their own data or staffing. - They would say faster go-live would probably have kept them.

Neither bet if: - Exits are mainly driven by events such as a lost shipper contract, site closure, acquisition, or price. - Robotics is mentioned but no one acted on it. - Go-live was slow but they were happy afterward. - Reasons scatter with no pattern. - Core product gaps, such as reporting or inventory accuracy, show up repeatedly. That would point to a third bet we haven't framed.

Both: If the same accounts show robotics-heavy sites with long go-lives because integrations took months, that is a third reading. It favors Bet A if the cause is missing integrations, and Bet B if it's our process. Decide by asking what the customer says was the blocker.

Split results: If churned accounts split evenly, or contradict the data pull, say so. Recommend a targeted follow-up, such as segmenting churn by tenure, rather than forcing a choice.

Grades and run details

Decision model 88 · LLM judge 100
Decision model checks
  • partialUses the supplied evidence correctly7%
  • passAddresses the actual decision77%
  • partialRespects explicit constraints10%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty100%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims33%
  • passProduces the required deliverable85%
  • passTests both theories fairly100%
  • passDifferent questions for user and signer100%
  • passProtects the calls and the accounts97%
  • passDesigned to falsify83%
  • passAsks what people did, not what they think97%
  • passDoesn't lead the witness46%
  • partialMarks what to cut if the call runs over59%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
1.6 min
Submitted
30 Sept 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 4

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyWrongMixedRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Claims that the exit survey option 'bundles robotics with basic APIs/ERPs' is interpretation presented as fact; the context only gives the label 'Missing features or integrations'.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It invents current data sources by saying to prepare timelines from support records and usage data, which are not supplied.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

All factual claims about the current situation are directly supported by the brief or derived correctly from its numbers.

Addresses the actual decisionRightMixedRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Provides a clear framework with specific evidence thresholds that would back Bet A, Bet B, or neither, which is what the brief asked for in a research guide.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It does not commit to one answer early; it only states the decision frame and later gives evidence thresholds, leaving the exec team without a clear recommendation.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

The output provides clear, actionable criteria for what would back each bet or neither after the calls, exactly as the brief requests.

Respects explicit constraintsRightMixedRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Includes all requested sections, stays under 1,500 words, addresses no-pricing/roadmap rule, recording consent, Ana's calls, and is written for the exec team.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It respects the no-pricing/roadmap and consent constraints, but it does not mark must-ask questions or say what to cut if time runs short, and it introduces unsupported data sources.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

The guide respects all constraints: it stays under 1,500 words, includes all requested sections, and provides concrete scripts and plans to enforce the off-limits topics and consent.

Marks what to cut if the call runs overWrongWrongRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Sections are timed and sum to 45 minutes, but must-ask questions are not marked and there is no guidance on what to cut if the call runs over.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Timings add to 45 minutes, but the guide does not mark must-ask questions or specify what to cut if time runs short.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Both 45-minute guides have timed sections that sum correctly, a realistic number of questions, and instructions to skip covered topics if time is short.

All got right 9

Identifies material uncertaintyRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Explicitly flags the exit survey as noisy, treats the 2.4× implementation-churn correlation as something to probe not assume causal, and names a third-driver possibility with concrete signals.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It names key unknowns such as survey bias, correlation versus causation, timing of churn decisions, confounders, and renewal exposure, and says how calls and data checks would resolve them.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

The output explicitly names the key unknowns (weak survey, correlation vs causation, unknown decision timing) and says how the calls and a parallel data pull would resolve them.

Avoids unsupported claimsRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Most interpretations are framed as hypotheses or things to probe; the primacy-bias point is a reasonable reading of the evidence even if stated confidently.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It labels exec theories and survey/correlation evidence as suggestive rather than established, though it still has a minor unsupported data-source claim.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Hypotheses and interpretations are clearly labelled as such, and no cause or forecast is presented as established fact.

Produces the required deliverableRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

A complete research guide memo with learning goals, two timed question tracks, interviewer guidance, plan changes, and decision framework, usable by the exec team.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It provides learning goals, timed two-role questions, interviewer guidance, plan changes, and decision signals within the length, and the exec team could act on it with light edits.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

The guide is complete with learning goals, timed questions for two roles, interviewer guidance, plan changes, and decision signals, all under 1,500 words and ready for the exec team.

Tests both theories fairlyRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Each theory gets questions that could disprove it—robotics via actual deployment status, implementation via early trust-break timing—and open questions about the leaving decision come before either theory is raised.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It asks open timeline questions before introducing either theory and gives both robotics and implementation questions that could disprove each, while leaving room for third causes.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Both theories get questions that could disprove them (e.g., no action on robotics, happiness after slow go-live), and open-ended timeline questions leave room for a third cause.

Different questions for user and signerRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Track A targets the economic buyer with decision-process and ROI questions; Track B targets the daily user with floor-level friction and workaround questions, clearly differentiated.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It has separate timed tracks for the daily warehouse operations manager and the VP/COO signer, matched to operational experience versus decision process.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

The guide has distinct tracks: daily user questions focus on day-to-day experience and workarounds, signer questions on the decision process and alternatives.

Protects the calls and the accountsRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Script for deflecting pricing/roadmap questions, recording consent at start, and concrete plan for Ana to do warm intros only while a neutral PM leads.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

It starts with recording consent, bans pricing/discounts/roadmap, gives a script if raised, and concretely removes Ana from leading calls with people she knows.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

It includes a clear off-limits rule with scripts for pricing/roadmap, starts with consent, and addresses the CEO's bias by having her not lead calls and limiting her contacts.

Designed to falsifyRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Each learning goal has a disconfirming path: e.g. 'Did Crate's lack of integration factor into your decision?' could yield 'no,' and probing actual robot deployment could show it wasn't relevant.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Each learning goal has disconfirming probes, including counterexamples, timing of decisions, failed workarounds, and questions about what would still have caused churn.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Every learning goal has a disconfirming question, such as asking what they did about robots or whether they ever reached value after a slow go-live.

Asks what people did, not what they thinkRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Core questions ask about specific past events—'Walk me through what actually happened during your rollout,' 'When did you first realize,' 'What system did you move to'—not hypotheticals.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

The core questions ask for specific events, timelines, actions, alternatives evaluated, and what happened next, with hypotheticals clearly secondary.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Core questions ask for specific recent actions and events ('What happened next?', 'Who did you call?'), not opinions or predictions.

Doesn't lead the witnessRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Explicitly instructs interviewers not to mention robotics or '94-day implementation' until the final 10 minutes, and to let customers name the pain first; questions are open-ended.

GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT

Questions are open and neutral, hypotheses are introduced only after unaided accounts, and the guide does not pitch either bet or ask customers to choose.

Sonnet 5.5 · API

Questions are neutral and open-ended; the prompted topics are introduced without pitching or hinting at the desired answer.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated. Where our PM checked the graders by hand, they agreed on 95% of 42 checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1Sonnet 5.5withAPI88.088.52None
2GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI83.784.92None
3Opus 5.5withClaude92.074.72None
4GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT89.774.52None
5Haiku 5.5withAPI89.770.12None
6GPT-6 LunawithAPI83.773.92None
7Gemini 4 ArgonwithAPI75.670.12None
8Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI67.851.92None
9Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini63.926.121 capped

What you get for the cost

GPT-6.1 Sol · API scores within 4 points of Sonnet 5.5 · API at a third of the cost.

Task score against relative cost for each setup. The table below has the same figures.304050607080901001×3×10×30×Cost per output, relative to the cheapest setup (log scale) →↑ Task scoreSonnet 5.5 · API: task score 87, 43× the cheapestGPT-6.1 Sol · API: task score 83, 13× the cheapestOpus 5.5 · Claude: task score 82, 71× the cheapestGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT: task score 81, 66× the cheapestHaiku 5.5 · API: task score 78, 2.3× the cheapestGPT-6 Luna · API: task score 78, the cheapestGemini 4 Argon · API: task score 70, 13× the cheapestGemini 3.8 Flash · API: task score 57, 8.3× the cheapestGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini: task score 42, 3.0× the cheapest, 1 critical failureSonnet 5.5 · APIGPT-6.1 Sol · APIOpus 5.5 · ClaudeGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPTHaiku 5.5 · APIGPT-6 Luna · APIGemini 4 Argon · APIGemini 3.8 Flash · APIGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini
Best valueNobody beats these on both score and costAt least one critical failure
Task score and relative cost by setup
SetupTask scoreRelative cost (cheapest = 1)
GPT-6 Luna · API781.0×
Haiku 5.5 · API782.3×
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini423.0×
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API578.3×
GPT-6.1 Sol · API8313×
Gemini 4 Argon · API7013×
Sonnet 5.5 · API8743×
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT8166×
Opus 5.5 · Claude8271×

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

About the task

The PM job

Preparing for customer calls.

Why it matters

Leading questions produce the answers you wanted. A good guide is designed to prove you wrong.

What good looks like

  • Past-behaviour questions
  • No leading prompts
  • Clear learning goals
  • Could disprove the team's hypothesis

Deliberately not measured

    Capability tested

    Question design

    The failure we’re looking for

    Hypothetical, leading questions

    Grading

    Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review