Tasks / Product Craft

Build a roadmap

Can the model sequence bets against capacity and dependencies, and explain the order?

Task type v1.0 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 18 graded outputs by 9 models. 72% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Produces the required deliverable96% pass
    The roadmap is complete, in the right form for a Group PM, within the word limit, and actionable without major gaps.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Fourteen requests from one customer
  2. Outcomes, with certainty that falls with distance96% pass
    Every item names its outcome (e.g., reduce paper transcription, reduce manual reconciliation), and near-term items are specific while later ones are deliberately looser (e.g., '7 weeks for rollout, workflow improvement and contingency').
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Fourteen requests from one customer
  3. Handles the big customer with evidence94% pass
    It uses Calder's rising usage and the second-hand 'might leave' to propose a conversation first, not committing the report builder, and offers a bounded export if needed.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Fourteen requests from one customer

Where it slips

  1. Fits the stated capacity53% pass
    Q3 Expenses row lacks squad-week allocation, so the committed plan cannot be fully checked against the 11-week capacity.
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · A year of spend management, with a hard deadline
  2. Tells the story of the bets54% pass
    The roadmap table is organized by squad, not grouped into a few themes, though the case provides thematic reasoning.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · A year of spend management, with a hard deadline
  3. Sees through the request count72% pass
    The output never counts requests by requester, does not mention that 14 requests come from Calder or that several are duplicates, and does not compare themes by customer count.
    GPT-6 Luna · API · Fourteen requests from one customer

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

  1. Outcomes, with certainty that falls with distance

    Does each roadmap item say the problem or outcome it serves, and does precision (dates, scope) decrease for later items?

    Passes when Every item names its outcome or problem. Near-term items are specific and later ones are deliberately looser.

  2. Fits the stated capacity

    Does the committed plan fit the team capacity the brief gives, with sums a reader could check, and does it say what was cut or deferred to make it fit?

    Passes when The committed work adds up to no more than the stated capacity, with some slack, the sums can be checked, and it names what was cut or pushed later and why.

  3. Tells the story of the bets

    Does the roadmap group the work into a few themes and explain why those are the biggest things to invest in now, rather than presenting a scored or ranked list of projects?

    Passes when A handful of themes, each with the reason it matters most now, and the items sit under them.

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · Sequences around dependencies · and 3 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're a Staff PM at Harbor. Tom Achebe, our CEO, has shared his draft roadmap for the next four quarters (Q4 2026 to Q3 2027), and asked you to turn it into the roadmap we take to next week's planning offsite. The exec team (CEO, CFO, CRO and CTO) will read it beforehand. Write: 1. The roadmap itself, by quarter or by now, next and later: what each squad works on and the outcome each item serves. 2. The case for it, in no more than 1,200 words: why this order, what you changed from Tom's draft and why, what we're not doing, and the risks that could change the plan. The pack below is everything we have. Not all of it matters equally.

What the model was given12 items: About Harbor, FY27 goal (approved by the board, September 2026), Squads and capacity, Hiring, Card processor deadline, Candidate work (estimates in squad-weeks, by owning squad), Tom's draft roadmap, Procurement evidence, Card spend evidence, Multi-entity evidence, Integrations evidence, Other asks
About HarborSpend management (corporate cards, expenses and approvals) for companies with 200 to 2,000 employees. 1,100 customers, $86M ARR, average 700 employees per customer. 58% of revenue is interchange on card spend; the rest is subscription. Net revenue retention (NRR) is 104%.
FY27 goal (approved by the board, September 2026)Raise NRR to 112% by the end of Q3 2027 by expanding inside existing customers: more spend on Harbor cards, more entities and more modules. New-logo growth matters, but it comes second this year.
Squads and capacityFive squads: Cards, Expenses, Approvals & Policy, Integrations and Platform. After support and on-call, each has about 11 squad-weeks of roadmap capacity a quarter. Squads can take work from another squad's area, but it takes them about 1.5× as long.
HiringTwo new squads were approved in September 2026. Tom's draft counts the first from Q1 2027 and the second from Q2 2027, both at full capacity. Last year, our three approved squads took 5, 6 and 8 months from approval to their first full sprint, and each delivered about half its capacity in its first quarter.
Card processor deadlineOur card processor retires its v1 API on 31 March 2027. Every card authorisation we process runs through v1 today. Migrating to v2 is about 18 squad-weeks of Cards work, and the processor must then run 4 weeks of certification testing before we can cut over. Certification is the processor's time, not ours, but nothing can change on our side while it runs.
Candidate work (estimates in squad-weeks, by owning squad)1. Processor v2 migration: Cards 18. Hard deadline above. 2. Virtual cards for software subscriptions: Cards 10. Needs v2. 3. Real-time spend controls (declines out-of-policy spend at the point of sale): Cards 8, Approvals & Policy 4. Needs v2. 4. Procurement module (purchase requests and approvals, a new paid add-on): Approvals & Policy 30, Integrations 6. 5. Multi-entity support (subsidiaries under one parent account): Platform 12, Approvals & Policy 10. 6. Sage Intacct integration: Integrations 9. 7. Microsoft Dynamics integration: Integrations 12. 8. SSO and SCIM provisioning: Platform 5. 9. Receipt-matching improvements: Expenses 6. 10. Mobile app rewrite: Expenses 22.
Tom's draft roadmapQ4 2026: Cards: v2 migration. Approvals & Policy: multi-entity. Integrations: Intacct. Platform: multi-entity. Expenses: receipt matching. Q1 2027: Cards: finish migration, start virtual cards. New squad A: procurement module. Integrations: Dynamics. Platform: SSO and SCIM. Q2 2027: Cards: virtual cards, spend controls. New squad A: procurement launch. New squad B: mobile rewrite. Q3 2027: Cards: spend controls. Everyone else: procurement adoption, mobile launch. Tom's note: “Procurement is our path to 112%. I've told the board it can add $6M of ARR in its first year.”
Procurement evidenceSix design partners have used a prototype since June. Two said they would pay for it; the other four already use a dedicated procurement tool and said they'd need a reason to switch. Proposed price: $8 per user per month, for users who raise purchase requests. At our customers, about 10% of employees raise purchase requests.
Card spend evidenceIn QBRs with our 60 largest customers, 26 asked for virtual cards for software subscriptions, and 31 CFOs asked for real-time spend controls. Finance estimates our customers pay about $410M a year of software subscriptions on other cards or by invoice (extrapolated from the 60 QBR accounts). Our net interchange is 1.1% of card spend.
Multi-entity evidence14 of our 60 largest customers have asked for it. Between them they have 52 subsidiaries not on Harbor, and 9 of the 14 have said in writing they would add their subsidiaries once it exists. Customer Success sized it at $2.9M ARR if all 52 joined at their parents' pricing.
Integrations evidence17% of customers use Sage Intacct through a CSV export. Their gross revenue churn is 13% a year, against 7% for customers on our NetSuite integration. Intacct was cited in 31% of lost new-logo deals last year, Dynamics in 8%. 3% of customers use Dynamics.
Other asksCRO: “Five enterprise deals worth $1.2M of pipeline need SSO and SCIM, and 11 existing accounts have it on their security review list.” CTO: “The mobile app is on a framework version that loses support in late 2027, and I want the rewrite done before then.” Support: receipt auto-match is at 71%, and unmatched receipts are the most common expense ticket.
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

A four-quarter roadmap that protects the 31 March deadline: the migration build has to finish by about early March to leave 4 weeks of certification, which is roughly all of Cards' capacity for Q4 and most of Q1 (18 of about 18 squad-weeks available before certification). So it adds help or buffer (Platform or another squad at 1.5×, or cutting everything else from Cards) and moves virtual cards out of Q1: both v2 features start only after cut-over (virtual cards Q2, spend controls Q2–Q3). It treats the new squads as upside: on past hiring they arrive around February to April 2027 and deliver half capacity in their first quarter, so nothing committed depends on them before Q2–Q3. It makes a clear call on procurement: the $6M claim needs about 890 accounts (81% of customers) paying $6,720 a year each (70 requesters × $8 × 12), and only 2 of 6 design partners would pay, so it replaces the 30-week build with a cheap paid test with a threshold, and keeps Approvals & Policy on multi-entity and spend controls, which have stronger expansion evidence ($2.9M sized, 9 of 14 committed in writing; about $1.5M a year of interchange from moving a third of the $410M of subscriptions onto virtual cards). Intacct comes early for its churn; Dynamics later or cut; SSO and SCIM are small and justified; the mobile rewrite waits for a new squad, before the framework's support ends. It lists what changed from Tom's draft, what's not being done, and the risks (certification slipping, hiring slipping), with commitment falling with distance.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Leaves the processor migration finishing too late for 4 weeks of certification before 31 March 2027, or schedules virtual cards or real-time spend controls before it
Task

Staff-level · v1.7

The outputs

9 setups answered this brief.

Usable with a quick edit10 of 13 checks passed

The output is a well-argued, evidence-based roadmap and case that a PM could take to the offsite with only minor polish.

Output

FY27 Product Roadmap: Path to 112% NRR

To: Tom Achebe (CEO), CFO, CRO, CTO From: Staff PM Subject: Pre-read: Proposed Q4 2026 – Q3 2027 Product Roadmap

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1. The FY27 Roadmap (Q4 2026 – Q3 2027)

To hit 112% NRR by the end of Q3 2027, we need $6.88M in net expansion ARR (8% of our $86M base). Because expansion revenue only counts toward Q3 NRR if it is live, rolled out, and generating spend before the end of Q3, this roadmap front-loads our highest-conviction NRR drivers and protects our core card infrastructure.

Note on Capacity: Each existing squad has 11 squad-weeks (SW) per quarter. Cross-squad work incurs a 1.5× penalty (e.g., 4 SW of native work takes 6 SW for a borrowing squad). New squads are modeled using our historical hiring baselines: 6 months to onboard and 50% capacity (5.5 SW) in their first active quarter.

Q4 2026: Clear the Decks & Lock In Quick Wins

  • Cards: Processor v2 Migration (11 of 18 SW). Outcome: Protect 58% of Harbor’s revenue ahead of the March 31 hard deadline.
  • Approvals & Policy (A&P): Multi-Entity Support (10 of 10 SW). Outcome: Unlock $2.9M ARR subsidiary expansion pipeline.
  • Platform: Multi-Entity Support (11 of 12 SW). Outcome: Same as above; ships in week 1 of Q1.
  • Integrations: Sage Intacct Integration (9 of 9 SW). Outcome: Slash gross churn from 13% to ~7% across 17% of our customer base (~$880k ARR saved) and remove the blocker in 31% of lost new-logo deals.
  • Expenses: Receipt-Matching Improvements (6 of 6 SW); begin Mobile App Rewrite (5 of 22 SW). Outcome: Cut our #1 support ticket driver to free up engineering on-call capacity; start retiring late-2027 mobile framework debt.

Q1 2027: Cutover v2 & Launch Multi-Entity

  • Cards: Finish Processor v2 Migration (3 SW in Weeks 1–3), Freeze for Certification (Weeks 4–7), Cutover (Week 8). Start Virtual Cards for SaaS (8 of 10 SW, built on v2 environment). Outcome: Zero card downtime on March 31; pull Virtual Cards launch into early Q2.
  • A&P: Assist Cards on Processor v2 Migration (6 SW = 4 native Cards SW in Weeks 1–6); Real-Time Spend Controls (4 of 4 native SW). Outcome: Crucial cross-squad assist ensures Cards hits the Feb 1 code freeze for v2 certification.
  • Platform: Finish Multi-Entity (1 of 12 SW); SSO & SCIM Provisioning (5 of 5 SW); Multi-Entity customer onboarding & scale hardening (5 SW). Outcome: Ship Multi-Entity in January for immediate CS expansion selling; unlock $1.2M new-logo pipeline and protect 11 enterprise renewals.
  • Integrations: Microsoft Dynamics Integration (11 of 12 SW). Outcome: Retain the 3% of base on Dynamics and remove the 8% new-logo blocker.
  • Expenses: Mobile App Rewrite (11 of 22 SW). Outcome: Hit 73% completion on mobile debt retirement without hiring dependencies.

Q2 2027: Capture the $410M Card Spend Opportunity

  • Cards: Finish Virtual Cards for SaaS (2 of 10 SW—Ships April); Real-Time Spend Controls (8 of 8 SW—Ships June). Outcome: Capture share of the $410M in off-Harbor software spend ($4.5M total interchange pool) requested by 43% of top customers; give 52% of top CFOs the point-of-sale controls needed to move remaining company spend to Harbor.
  • A&P: Spend Controls integration support & policy templates (4 SW); Discovery & v2 Architecture for Light Vendor/PO Workflows (7 SW). Outcome: Ensure rapid adoption of Spend Controls; re-architect our procurement approach (see The Case below).
  • Integrations: Finish Dynamics (1 of 12 SW); ERP syncing for Virtual Cards & Multi-Entity (10 SW). Outcome: Ensure seamless reconciliation for expanded multi-entity and SaaS card spend.
  • Platform: Card spend limit notifications, alerting & multi-entity RBAC (11 SW). Outcome: Drive self-serve adoption of Virtual Cards across existing accounts.
  • Expenses: Finish Mobile App Rewrite (6 of 22 SW—Ships May); Card spend receipt automation (5 SW). Outcome: Retire framework support risk 6 months ahead of CTO deadline.
  • New Squad A (Ramping: 5.5 SW): Build self-serve migration tools for recurring SaaS bills to Virtual Cards. Outcome: Accelerate time-to-interchange for Virtual Cards.

Q3 2027: Drive Adoption to Lock In 112% NRR

  • Cards & Platform: Automated SaaS vendor detection (flagging invoice spend in ERP to convert to Virtual Cards) & card limit auto-top-ups. Outcome: Maximize interchange realization before Q3 closes.
  • A&P, New Squad A (11 SW) & New Squad B (5.5 SW): Build redesigned intake-to-card workflows (issuing single-use PO virtual cards upon approval). Outcome: Monetize approval workflows via interchange and seat expansion rather than competing head-on with entrenched procurement suites.
  • Integrations & Expenses: In-app onboarding and bulk-provisioning tooling for Multi-Entity subsidiaries. Outcome: Help CS close the remaining 52 subsidiaries before EOY.

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2. The Case for This Roadmap

Why This Order? (The Math to 112% NRR)

To add $6.88M in net ARR by the end of Q3 2027, we must prioritize high-margin revenue protection and high-velocity expansion that can land in H1 2027: 1. Stop the bleeding via Intacct & SSO (+$0.9M to $1.1M ARR retained): NRR is a net number; every dollar of churn avoided is a dollar of expansion we don't have to sell. 17% of our base (~$14.6M ARR) uses Intacct via CSV and churns at 13% vs. 7% for NetSuite. Fixing this in Q4 saves ~$880k/yr in gross churn and unlocks 31% of lost deals. Pairing this with SSO/SCIM in Q1 secures 11 enterprise accounts under security review. 2. Ship Multi-Entity in week 1 of Q1 (+$1.8M to $2.9M ARR): 9 top customers have committed in writing to add subsidiaries once live. Sizing all 52 subsidiaries in the top-60 cohort equals $2.9M ARR—and more exist across our other 1,040 customers. Shipping in January gives CS three full quarters to close and onboard these entities. 3. Unleash Card Spend in Q2 (+$2.5M to $3.5M ARR): Our customers spend $410M/yr on software off-Harbor. At 1.1% net interchange, that is a $4.51M high-margin revenue pool sitting inside our existing base. Nearly half (26 of 60) of our largest accounts are actively asking for Virtual Cards for subscriptions, and 31 CFOs want Real-Time Spend Controls. Unlike new modules that require procurement cycles and legal sign-off, turning on virtual cards for existing customers generates interchange revenue the day a card is swiped.

Combined with our baseline 104% NRR ($3.44M), capturing just half of our conservative targets across these three pillars puts us at 112.5% NRR ($96.8M ARR) by Q3.

What Changed from Tom’s Draft—and Why

1. Resolving the March 31 Card Processor Crisis Tom’s draft had the Cards squad doing the 18-SW v2 migration across Q4 and Q1. However, Cards only has 11 SW per quarter. Furthermore, the processor requires a 4-week certification freeze before the March 31 cutover. To cut over by March 31, code must be finished by February 26 (Week 8 of Q1). In 19 weeks of calendar time, the Cards squad only has ~17.5 SW of capacity—leaving zero margin for error and pushing Virtual Cards into late Q2/Q3. * The Fix: In Q1, Approvals & Policy gives 6 SW of capacity (yielding 4 native SW at the 1.5× cross-squad rate) to the Cards team. This finishes all 18 SW of v2 code by the end of January, allowing certification in February, safe cutover in early March, and pulling Virtual Cards forward by 6 weeks.

2. Replacing the $6M Procurement Bet with Card Expansion Tom’s draft relies on Procurement to add $6M ARR in year one. The customer and capacity math does not support this: * The Revenue Math: At $8/month ($96/yr) for the 10% of employees who raise purchase requests (70 users per average 700-person customer), 100% adoption across all 1,100 customers would only generate $7.39M ARR. To hit $6M in Year 1, we would have to sell an unbuilt add-on to 81% of our entire customer base in two quarters. Yet in our design partner trial, 4 of 6 customers already had a procurement tool and refused to switch, and only 2 (33%) were willing to pay. Realistic Year-1 ARR is ~$500k–$900k. * The Capacity Math: Procurement requires 30 SW from A&P and 6 SW from Integrations. Tom assigned this to "New Squad A" starting in Q1. Last year, our new squads took 5 to 8 months to reach their first sprint, and delivered 50% capacity in their first quarter. Approved in September, Squad A won't run a sprint until Q2 2027 (delivering ~5.5 SW), and as a brand-new squad working in A&P's domain, they face the 1.5× ramp penalty. Assigned to Squad A, a 36-SW Procurement module would not ship until Q1 2028—contributing $0 to FY27 NRR.

3. De-risking the Mobile App Rewrite Tom assigned the 22-SW Mobile Rewrite to "New Squad B" in Q2. Approved in September, Squad B likely won't start until Q3 2027 at half capacity (5.5 SW), missing the CTO’s late-2027 framework end-of-life deadline. By keeping our existing Expenses squad on Mobile starting in Q4 (after a 6-SW sprint on Receipt Matching), we complete the rewrite in Q2 2027 with zero hiring dependency.

What We Are Not Doing

  • We are not building a standalone, 36-SW Procurement Module in H1. We cannot justify starving Multi-Entity and Spend Controls to build a module that 67% of design partners rejected and that cannot ship in time to impact FY27 NRR. Instead, in Q2/Q3, we will explore lightweight PO-to-Virtual-Card workflows that drive card spend rather than competing with Coupa or Zip.
  • We are not counting on un-hired squads for critical-path H1 deliverables. New Squads A and B are scheduled for Q2 and Q3 respectively, focused on adoption tooling and H2 expansion where hiring delays won't threaten our board target or infrastructure deadlines.

Key Risks That Could Change This Plan

  1. Processor v2 Certification Rejections: If the processor finds bugs during the 4-week February certification window, our freeze extends and delays Virtual Cards. Mitigation: By using A&P to help finish the build in January, we buy a 4-week buffer before the March 31 cliff.
  2. Cross-Squad Ramp Friction: Having A&P take on 4 SW of Cards work (costing 6 SW) in Q1 requires clean work partitioning. Mitigation: Cards will own the core v2 authorization webhooks; A&P will own isolated migration scripts and fallback testing.
  3. Slower Multi-Entity Sales Cycles: While 9 accounts gave written intent, parent-subsidiary contract addendums can stall in legal. Mitigation: CS and Finance must pre-negotiate subsidiary pricing addendums with the 14 target accounts in Q4 so we can bill immediately upon the January release.

Grades and run details

Decision model 62 · LLM judge 100
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly41%
  • passAddresses the actual decision70%
  • partialRespects explicit constraints11%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty53%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims46%
  • passProduces the required deliverable49%
  • partialProtects the processor deadline9%
  • passPlans on the squads we actually have89%
  • partialMakes the call on procurement73%
  • passOutcomes, with certainty that falls with distance67%
  • failFits the stated capacity64%
  • passSequences around dependencies11%
  • failTells the story of the bets74%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
32 s
Submitted
13 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit11 of 13 checks passed

The output is complete and evidence-based; a quick edit to add the Q3 Expenses capacity allocation (e.g., 11 weeks for rollout and support) would make it fully checkable.

Output

Harbor Roadmap, Q4 2026 to Q3 2027

Pre-read for the planning offsite. Prepared from Tom's draft.

Part 1: The roadmap

Planning assumptions - Each existing squad has 11 squad-weeks of roadmap capacity a quarter. Work done in another squad's area costs 1.5×. - The two new squads are planned at the dates our history supports, not the approved dates. Last year's squads took 5 to 8 months from approval to their first full sprint. - Squad A: 0 weeks in Q1, about 5 in Q2 (half capacity), about 11 in Q3. - Squad B: 0 weeks in Q2, about 5 in Q3. - Nothing committed depends on either new squad. - The fiscal year runs Q4 2026 (Oct to Dec) through Q3 2027 (Jul to Sep).

Squad plan by quarter (squad-weeks in brackets)

SquadQ4 2026Q1 2027Q2 2027Q3 2027
Cardsv2 migration (11)v2 migration: code complete by ~31 Jan (4). Certification runs through Feb with no card-stack changes. Cutover ~1 Mar. Cutover contingency (3). Virtual cards design and sandbox build, no production changes (4)Virtual cards build and launch ~May (6). Real-time spend controls (5)Spend controls launch ~Jul (3). Adoption work on virtual cards and controls with CS (8)
Platformv2 migration support (5, which buys ~3.3 Cards-weeks). Multi-entity (6)Multi-entity, ships ~end Feb (6). SSO and SCIM, ships by end Mar (5)Subsidiary onboarding tooling and SSO rollout to the 11 accounts (5). Procurement billing and permissions, if the gate passes (6)New-squad onboarding and spend-controls latency support (5). Reserve (6)
Approvals & PolicyMulti-entity (10). Procurement pricing test with design partners (1)Procurement build, phase 1 (11). Gate at end of MarchSpend controls policy engine (4). Procurement (7)Procurement finish (8). Beta, then GA ~Sep (3)
IntegrationsSage Intacct, ships ~early Dec (9). CSV-to-integration migration tooling (2)Move ~187 Intacct CSV customers onto the integration, with CS (5). Dynamics (6)Dynamics, ships ~May (6). Procurement integrations (5)Procurement integrations (1). Hardening and reserve (10)
ExpensesReceipt matching (6). Mobile rewrite (5)Mobile rewrite (11)Mobile rewrite, feature-complete ~May (6). Beta and fixes (5)Staged rollout. Old app retired by end Sep, a quarter or more before framework support ends
New squad A (upside)——Onboarding (~5)~11: accelerate procurement, then own it. Otherwise, adoption work on cards
New squad B (upside)———Onboarding (~5). Scope set at Q2 planning

Items, outcomes and key dates

ItemOutcome it servesKey dateOwner
Processor v2 migrationKeeps every card authorisation running. That protects the 58% of revenue that is interchangeCode complete ~31 Jan, cutover ~1 Mar, about 4 weeks of buffer before 31 MarCards + Platform
Multi-entityMore entities: 9 customers have committed in writing to add subsidiariesShips ~end Feb. Subsidiaries onboard in Q2 and Q3Platform + A&P
Virtual cardsMore card spend: brings software subscriptions onto Harbor cardsLaunches ~MayCards
Real-time spend controlsMore card spend: gives CFOs the confidence to issue more cards (31 CFOs asked for it)Launches ~JulCards + A&P
Intacct integration and CSV migrationRetention: Intacct-on-CSV customers churn at 13%, against 7% on NetSuite. Also addresses 31% of lost dealsIntegration ships Dec. Customers move in Q1Integrations
SSO and SCIMRetention of the 11 accounts with it on their security review list. Also $1.2M of new-logo pipelineShips MarPlatform
ProcurementMore modules: a new paid add-onGate end Mar. GA ~SepA&P
DynamicsNew-logo win rate (8% of lost deals)Ships ~MayIntegrations
Receipt matchingLower support load: the most common expense ticketShips DecExpenses
Mobile rewriteRemoves platform risk before the framework loses supportOld app retired by SepExpenses

NRR bridge: what this plan plausibly delivers by end of Q3 2027

Moving NRR from 104% to 112% needs about $6.9M of additional net expansion (8 points of $86M).

LeverBasisEstimate in window
Multi-entity9 of the 14 requesting customers committed in writing, roughly 33 of 52 subsidiaries. The $2.9M figure assumes all 52 join$1.5M to $2.9M
Virtual cards$410M × 1.1% = $4.5M ceiling. Assumes 15 to 35% captured within ~5 months of launch$0.7M to $1.6M
Intacct churn reduction~$14.6M of ARR on CSV. Closing the churn gap is worth ~$0.9M a year, and only part of that lands in window$0.3M to $0.6M
ProcurementGA in ~SepUnder $0.3M
Spend controls, SSO and SCIMNot sizedUpside or protection
Total$2.8M to $5.4M, or roughly 107% to 110% NRR

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Part 2: The case for it

The short version

Tom's draft has the right ingredients. It does, however, have three problems:

  1. No buffer on the processor deadline. The migration has no room to slip against a date that could stop every card authorisation.
  2. Key work sits on squads we won't have. Procurement and the mobile rewrite depend on new squads that history says won't exist at full capacity until Q3 at the earliest.
  3. Procurement can't carry the goal. It is expected to deliver the NRR target, but the evidence doesn't support $6M and the timing puts almost none of it inside the measurement window.

This plan protects the deadline first. It then sequences the levers with the strongest evidence so they land early enough to count. Even so, product alone likely gets us to 107% to 110%, not 112%. The exec team should know that now, not in Q3.

Why this order

1. The processor migration comes first, with buffer.

Every authorisation runs through v1, so a missed cutover puts most of our revenue at risk. On Tom's draft: - Cards alone finishes the 18 weeks around late February. - The 4-week certification then ends in the last days of March. - That leaves under a week of slack, with December holidays not counted and no room for a failed certification.

Lending 5 Platform weeks in Q4 changes this: - Code complete moves to about 31 January. - Cutover lands around 1 March. - We have roughly four weeks of buffer.

This also means virtual cards can't "start in Q1" as the draft says. During certification nothing on our card stack can change. Cards will do design and sandbox work in Q1 and start production work after cutover.

2. Multi-entity and virtual cards next, because they have the best evidence and they land in time.

NRR is measured at the end of Q3, so anything launching after about June barely counts. Our two strongest levers are: - Multi-entity: 9 customers have committed in writing to add subsidiaries, which is about $1.5M to $2.9M. - Virtual cards: a $4.5M ceiling. 26 of our 60 largest customers asked for them.

Multi-entity ships in February. Virtual cards ship in May. Real-time spend controls follow in July because they share the Cards squad. They matter to 31 CFOs, but we haven't sized them.

3. Retention work runs in parallel, because it is cheap.

  • Intacct: 9 weeks of work. It addresses a segment churning at nearly twice our NetSuite rate and appears in 31% of lost deals. The integration only reduces churn if customers actually move off CSV, so I added a Q1 migration push with CS.
  • SSO and SCIM: 5 weeks of work. It protects 11 accounts and unblocks $1.2M of pipeline.

4. Procurement is real but gated, and it is not the FY27 lever.

What I changed from Tom's draft, and why

  1. Migration buffer. Platform lends 5 weeks in Q4. The cost is that multi-entity moves from December to February. I think that trade is clearly right, because the downside of a missed cutover is existential.

2. New squads planned realistically. - Squads approved in September reach their first full sprint between February and May, based on last year's 5 to 8 months. - Each then runs at half capacity for a quarter. - Squad A realistically gives about 5 weeks in Q2. Squad B gives nothing before Q3. - I've kept every committed item on the existing five squads. The new squads are upside.

3. Procurement moved to Approvals & Policy and gated. - A&P owns the domain, has capacity after multi-entity, and was left without work in the draft. - Build starts in Q1. At the end of March we need signed paid-pilot commitments from about 10 customers beyond the two design partners, or we redirect A&P. - GA lands around September. If Squad A arrives on time, it accelerates the work.

4. The $6M procurement figure needs resetting with the board. - At $8 per user per month and 10% of our ~770,000 employees raising requests, the ceiling is about $7.4M a year if every customer adopts. $6M therefore implies about 81% adoption. - Only 2 of 6 design partners said they'd pay. The other four already use a dedicated tool. - At a one-in-three adoption rate, procurement is worth about $2.5M at full run-rate, reached over years, and less than $0.3M inside FY27. - I recommend Tom and the CFO correct this at the next board touchpoint, before the board starts tracking it.

5. Mobile rewrite moved to Expenses, starting in Q4. - Expenses owns the app and the draft left it idle after Q4. - The rewrite finishes by May, and the old app is retired by September. - This gives the CTO's deadline real margin. Leaving it on Squad B would risk missing it.

  1. Spend controls now include the A&P work (4 weeks). The draft omitted this.
  1. Dynamics moves from Q1 to May. The Intacct customer migration goes first, because Intacct matters roughly five times more by customer count and lost deals.

What we're not doing

  • Not claiming procurement drives FY27 NRR. We are also not building past the March gate without paid commitments.
  • Not starting virtual cards or anything else on the card stack before cutover.
  • Not putting any deadline-critical or NRR-critical work on unhired squads.
  • Not adding new-logo-only features beyond Intacct, Dynamics and SSO, which also serve retention. New logos come second this year, as the board set.
  • Not filling the Q3 reserve on Platform and Integrations. That slack absorbs migration fallout, integration hardening and new-squad onboarding. If the migration goes cleanly, we can release it to card-spend adoption work at Q2 planning.

Risks that could change the plan

1. Certification fails or needs a second round. A re-run would consume the entire buffer. - Book the certification slot now. - Run a pre-certification dry run in January. - Ask the processor in writing for a contingency extension and an emergency-fix protocol for the freeze window. - If code complete slips past mid-February, pull more Platform capacity immediately.

2. The $410M software-spend figure is extrapolated from our 60 largest accounts. Smaller customers may put proportionally less software spend on cards. - In Q4, validate it with AP data from about 20 mid-sized customers. - If it halves, virtual cards is worth about $0.4M to $0.8M in window and spend controls rises in priority.

  1. Multi-entity conversion comes in below the written commitments. CS should agree subsidiary onboarding plans with the 9 customers in Q1, before the feature ships.
  1. Real-time spend controls sit on the authorisation path. A latency problem could cause false declines. Platform supports this work in Q3, and we should launch in stages.
  1. Hiring slips further. This doesn't threaten committed dates, but procurement would stay in Q3 and our adoption capacity shrinks.
  1. The procurement gate fails. A&P redirects to deeper spend controls and multi-entity policy features, both of which feed card spend.
  1. The mobile framework end-of-support date is only "late 2027". The CTO should confirm the exact date.

Decisions we need at the offsite

  1. Approve Platform's Q4 loan to Cards, accepting that multi-entity moves to February.
  2. Agree the board message on procurement, and the gate criteria behind it.
  3. Close the NRR gap. This plan lands about 107% to 110%. Closing the remaining $1.5M to $4M needs commercial levers the CRO and CFO own, such as CS-led card activation, packaging and pricing, and a multi-entity sales motion beyond the 9. Otherwise we tell the board now that 112% is a stretch.
  4. Authorise the processor extension request.

Grades and run details

Decision model 81 · LLM judge 93
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly6%
  • passAddresses the actual decision91%
  • partialRespects explicit constraints27%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty100%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims37%
  • passProduces the required deliverable61%
  • passProtects the processor deadline98%
  • passPlans on the squads we actually have92%
  • passMakes the call on procurement92%
  • passOutcomes, with certainty that falls with distance88%
  • failFits the stated capacity19%
  • passSequences around dependencies59%
  • failTells the story of the bets73%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
3.5 min
Submitted
30 Sept 2026

Needs more than a quick edit11 of 13 checks passed

The plan lacks any buffer for the processor migration, which is a critical risk, and the squad-based structure doesn't tell a thematic story for the exec offsite.

Output

Harbor FY27 roadmap — Q4 2026 to Q3 2027

Planning basis: Each existing squad has about 11 roadmap squad-weeks per quarter. Figures below are the candidate-work estimates; capacity not assigned to a feature is deliberately held for launch, customer activation, fixes and contingency. New squads are not counted at full capacity until their ramp is proven.

QuarterSquadWork and outcome
Q4 2026CardsProcessor v2 migration — 11 of 18 weeks. Start the mandatory migration and establish the path to retire v1 before the processor deadline.
Approvals & PolicyMulti-entity — 10 of 10 weeks. Build parent/subsidiary approval and policy support so existing customers can bring more entities onto Harbor.
PlatformMulti-entity — 11 of 12 weeks. Build the platform foundation for subsidiaries under a parent account.
IntegrationsSage Intacct — 9 weeks. Replace CSV workarounds to reduce a retention risk among existing customers.
ExpensesReceipt matching — 6 weeks. Improve the most common expense-ticket driver; use remaining capacity for fixes and customer feedback.
Q1 2027CardsFinish v2 — 7 weeks. Target implementation complete by the end of February, leaving March for the processor’s four-week certification. No card-side changes during certification.
Approvals & PolicyMulti-entity launch and customer activation. Support the first subsidiary rollouts. Use remaining capacity for a time-bounded procurement willingness-to-pay and switching validation; do not build the module.
PlatformFinish multi-entity — 1 week; SSO/SCIM — 5 weeks. Complete the entity foundation, then address security blockers affecting existing accounts and enterprise pipeline.
IntegrationsMicrosoft Dynamics — 11 of 12 weeks. Address a cited reason for lost new-logo deals; complete the final week in Q2.
ExpensesMobile rewrite — 11 of 22 weeks. Start early to reduce the risk of running out of time before the current framework loses support in late 2027.
Q2 2027CardsVirtual cards for software subscriptions — 10 weeks. After v2 certification, give customers a way to move subscription spend onto Harbor cards and capture more interchange.
Approvals & PolicyReal-time spend controls — 4 weeks. Build the policy logic for point-of-sale declines, in step with Cards’ Q3 work.
PlatformSSO/SCIM and multi-entity activation. Support adoption and resolve launch issues; no new major platform feature is precommitted.
IntegrationsFinish Dynamics — 1 week; customer rollout. Complete the integration and support implementation.
ExpensesFinish mobile rewrite — 11 weeks. Complete the rewrite by Q2, ahead of the framework support deadline.
Q3 2027CardsReal-time spend controls — 8 weeks. Complete and release with Approvals & Policy; help finance teams enforce policy at the point of sale.
Approvals & PolicyRelease and adoption for real-time controls; multi-entity activation. Focus on turning shipped capabilities into customer usage and expansion.
PlatformActivation and reliability for multi-entity and SSO/SCIM. Prioritize customer rollout and fixes over an unvalidated new feature.
IntegrationsIntacct and Dynamics adoption. Help customers get live and measure retention and deal impact before choosing further integration work.
ExpensesMobile rollout and stabilization; measure receipt-match performance. Address launch issues and confirm the support-ticket outcome.

New Squads A and B: Plan for onboarding and ramp, not full feature capacity. When productive, use them for bounded rollout, quality or activation work. No committed launch depends on their availability.

Case for the plan

Why this order

The board’s priority is to move NRR from 104% to 112% by the end of Q3, primarily through expansion in existing customers. The plan therefore favors credible opportunities to retain customers or deepen their use of Harbor, while keeping some room for new-logo needs.

First, v2 is a hard dependency and a hard deadline. All authorisations still run through v1, which retires on 31 March. The 18 Cards squad-weeks consume 11 weeks in Q4 and seven in Q1. That leaves time to finish implementation before the processor’s four-week certification and to keep the required freeze during testing. Virtual cards and real-time controls must wait until certification is complete.

Next, multi-entity has concrete expansion evidence: 14 of the 60 largest customers asked, and nine have said in writing that they would add subsidiaries. The $2.9M ARR estimate assumes all 52 subsidiaries join, so it is an upside case, not a commitment. Completing the Platform and Approvals & Policy work across Q4 and Q1 creates a path to test that demand with real rollouts.

Virtual cards are the first post-migration Cards feature because 26 large customers asked for them and Finance estimates $410M of annual subscription spend is currently elsewhere. At Harbor’s 1.1% net interchange, full capture would represent about $4.5M in annual interchange revenue, but that is a ceiling, not a forecast: the spend estimate is extrapolated, and adoption and capture are unknown. Real-time controls follow, with coordinated work across Cards and Approvals & Policy. The 31 CFO requests are strong demand evidence, but the plan avoids trying to fit both features into Cards’ 11-week quarterly capacity.

Intacct comes before Dynamics. Intacct is used by 17% of customers through CSV, and those customers have higher observed gross revenue churn than customers on NetSuite. That comparison is correlational, but it supports addressing a retention risk. Dynamics has lower existing use (3%) and a more limited new-logo case, but the 8% of lost deals citing it justifies completing the 12-week integration after Intacct.

SSO/SCIM is a relatively small, five-week Platform investment tied to five enterprise deals representing $1.2M of pipeline and 11 existing security reviews. It supports commercial outcomes without displacing the larger expansion bets.

What changed from Tom’s draft

  • Removed procurement from committed build and launch. Six design partners are not enough evidence for the board’s $6M first-year ARR claim: only two said they would pay, and four already use another tool. At the proposed price, an average 700-employee customer would generate about $6,720 ARR if 10% of employees were buyers. Reaching $6M would require roughly 893 such customer equivalents. We should validate willingness to switch and pricing before committing 30 Approvals & Policy and six Integrations squad-weeks.
  • Corrected the hiring assumption. Prior squads took five to eight months from approval to a first full sprint and delivered about half capacity in their first quarter. The plan does not count either new squad at full capacity in Q1 or Q2, or make a feature dependent on them.
  • Made the v2 critical path explicit. The migration spans Q4 and Q1, with implementation targeted ahead of March certification. Tom’s draft did not protect that freeze clearly enough.
  • Sequenced Cards work to fit capacity. Virtual cards and real-time controls require 18 Cards squad-weeks together, more than one quarter’s 11-week capacity. They are sequenced across Q2 and Q3.
  • Started the mobile rewrite with the existing Expenses squad. The work is 22 weeks, so starting in Q1 targets completion in Q2 without relying on an unproven new squad.

What we are not doing

We are not committing to build procurement, starting a mobile rewrite with a new squad at assumed full capacity, or taking on another major integration or platform feature in Q3 without evidence from the launches above. New-logo work remains in the plan, but expansion and retention come first.

Risks that could change the plan

  • Processor timing: Any migration slip puts card authorisations at risk. Track delivery and certification weekly; protect the Q1 card schedule and do not pull dependent features forward.
  • Expansion may not materialize: Multi-entity interest and card requests do not guarantee adoption or spend migration. Track subsidiary activation, card spend moved, and controls usage—not just releases.
  • Commercial estimates are uncertain: The $2.9M multi-entity estimate and $4.5M card-spend ceiling are not forecasts. Procurement’s $6M claim is especially unsupported by current evidence.
  • Mobile has little slack: The 22-week rewrite fills two quarters of Expenses capacity. Scope growth, delivery delays or an earlier-than-expected framework deadline would require replanning.
  • Hiring, integration and cross-squad delivery may slip: Ramp timing is uncertain; the Intacct churn difference may not be caused by the integration; and spend controls depend on coordinated Cards and Approvals & Policy work.

This roadmap gives Harbor credible bets aligned to the NRR goal, but it does not establish that the 112% target is guaranteed. We should review expansion and retention indicators at each quarterly planning checkpoint and change the plan if customer evidence or delivery risk materially shifts.

Grades and run details

Decision model 85 · LLM judge 79
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly64%
  • passAddresses the actual decision48%
  • passRespects explicit constraints14%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty88%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims72%
  • passProduces the required deliverable77%
  • partialProtects the processor deadline38%
  • passPlans on the squads we actually have98%
  • partialMakes the call on procurement37%
  • passOutcomes, with certainty that falls with distance73%
  • passFits the stated capacity37%
  • passSequences around dependencies62%
  • failTells the story of the bets94%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
1.9 min
Submitted
1 Oct 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 4

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyMixedRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

All factual claims about current situation are drawn directly from the brief or context, or follow from arithmetic.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

All facts and figures used are directly from the supplied context or derived by arithmetic from it; no invented current-state claims.

GPT-6 Luna · API

All factual claims about the current situation are directly from the brief or derived by correct arithmetic.

Protects the processor deadlineRightRightWrong
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The migration builds finish by late January, leaving 4 weeks of certification plus buffer, and v2 features start only after cutover.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Migration finishes by 31 Jan with Platform help, certification runs in Feb, cutover ~1 Mar, leaving buffer; virtual cards and spend controls start after cutover.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The plan uses all of Cards' capacity with no buffer or help from other squads, leaving no protection against slippage before the 31 March deadline.

Fits the stated capacityMixedWrongRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Committed work fits within stated capacity with sums that can be checked, and it explains that the full procurement module and new-squad dependencies were cut.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Q3 Expenses row lacks squad-week allocation, so the committed plan cannot be fully checked against the 11-week capacity.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Committed work fits within 11 squad-weeks per quarter with slack held for launch and fixes, and it names what was cut (procurement build, additional features).

Tells the story of the betsMixedMixedWrong
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The roadmap is grouped into quarterly themes (Clear the Decks, Cutover v2, Capture Card Spend, Drive Adoption) that tell a coherent investment story.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The case groups work into themes (protect deadline, expand card spend, retention, gated procurement) and explains why each is the biggest bet now.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The roadmap is organized by squad, not grouped into a few themes with a narrative about why those are the biggest bets now.

All got right 9

Addresses the actual decisionRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The output commits to a clear roadmap and a case that directly answers the CEO's request, with risks that could change the plan.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Commits to a clear roadmap and case, framed for the exec team, with explicit changes from Tom's draft and conditions that would alter the plan.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Commits to a clear plan (no procurement build, validation instead) and states that quarterly review of expansion and retention indicators could change it.

Respects explicit constraintsRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The roadmap is by quarter, the case is under 1,200 words, and the memo is addressed to the exec team as requested.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Delivers a roadmap by quarter with outcomes, a case under 1,200 words, and addresses the required reader and form.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Delivers a quarterly roadmap with outcomes and a case under 1,200 words covering the required topics for the exec team.

Identifies material uncertaintyRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

It names specific risks (certification rejections, cross-squad friction, multi-entity legal stalls) and describes how they could change the plan.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Names specific risks (certification, $410M estimate, multi-entity conversion, hiring, procurement gate) and how each would be resolved or change the plan.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Names specific risks (processor timing, adoption, commercial estimates, mobile slack, hiring) and how they would be tracked or resolved.

Avoids unsupported claimsRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Interpretations and forecasts are clearly labelled as estimates or conclusions, not as established facts.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Assumptions are clearly labelled; interpretations and forecasts are presented as estimates, not established facts.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Labels correlations and extrapolations clearly (e.g., 'correlational', 'ceiling, not a forecast') and avoids presenting them as established fact.

Produces the required deliverableRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The roadmap and case are complete, in the requested form, and could be used by the exec team with light edits.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The roadmap and case are complete, in the requested format, and the exec team could act on them without major gaps.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The roadmap and case are complete, in the requested form, and usable by the exec team without major gaps.

Plans on the squads we actually haveRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

New squads are modelled to arrive at half capacity in Q2/Q3, and no critical-path deliverables depend on them before then.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

New squads are planned at half capacity arriving Q2/Q3 based on history, and no committed work depends on them.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Does not count new squads at full capacity in Q1 or Q2 and commits no important work to them, consistent with past hiring delays and ramp.

Makes the call on procurementRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

It shows the $6M claim requires ~81% adoption, weighs the design partner rejection rate, assigns A&P to better-evidenced work, and proposes a lightweight card-driven test instead of the full module.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Checks the $6M claim against pricing and adoption evidence, shows it implies ~81% adoption, contrasts with 2/6 design partners, and proposes a gated paid-pilot test.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Checks the $6M claim against pricing and adoption evidence, shows it would need ~893 customers, and replaces the build with a paid validation test.

Outcomes, with certainty that falls with distanceRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Every roadmap item states an outcome; near-term quarters are specific and later ones are deliberately looser.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Every item names its outcome; near-term items have specific dates, later items are looser (e.g., '~May', '~Sep').

GPT-6 Luna · API

Every item names an outcome or problem, and later items are deliberately looser (e.g., 'focus on turning shipped capabilities into customer usage').

Sequences around dependenciesRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

v2 features start after migration and certification; multi-entity, Intacct and other items are sequenced around their dependencies.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

V2 features wait for migration cutover; procurement is gated; other dependencies are respected and named.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Respects v2 dependency for virtual cards and spend controls, places them after certification, and names the dependencies that drive the order.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated. Where our PM checked the graders by hand, they agreed on 79% of 150 checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT88.0100.02None
2Opus 5.5withClaude88.396.42None
3GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI88.396.42None
4Sonnet 5.5withAPI90.292.62None
5Haiku 5.5withAPI74.496.42None
6GPT-6 LunawithAPI84.085.42None
7Gemini 4 ArgonwithAPI62.088.52None
8Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI58.366.82None
9Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini57.136.521 capped

What you get for the cost

GPT-6.1 Sol · API scores within a point of GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT at a sixth of the cost.

Task score against relative cost for each setup. The table below has the same figures.304050607080901001×3×10×30×Cost per output, relative to the cheapest setup (log scale) →↑ Task scoreGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT: task score 94, 39× the cheapestOpus 5.5 · Claude: task score 93, 37× the cheapestGPT-6.1 Sol · API: task score 93, 6.9× the cheapestSonnet 5.5 · API: task score 92, 36× the cheapestHaiku 5.5 · API: task score 86, 2.1× the cheapestGPT-6 Luna · API: task score 84, the cheapestGemini 4 Argon · API: task score 77, 6.7× the cheapestGemini 3.8 Flash · API: task score 60, 5.5× the cheapestGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini: task score 45, the cheapest, 1 critical failureGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPTOpus 5.5 · ClaudeGPT-6.1 Sol · APISonnet 5.5 · APIHaiku 5.5 · APIGPT-6 Luna · APIGemini 4 Argon · APIGemini 3.8 Flash · APIGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini
Best valueNobody beats these on both score and costAt least one critical failure
Task score and relative cost by setup
SetupTask scoreRelative cost (cheapest = 1)
GPT-6 Luna · API841.0×
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini451.1×
Haiku 5.5 · API862.1×
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API605.5×
Gemini 4 Argon · API776.7×
GPT-6.1 Sol · API936.9×
Sonnet 5.5 · API9236×
Opus 5.5 · Claude9337×
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT9439×

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

About the task

The PM job

Turning strategy into a sequenced plan.

Why it matters

A roadmap is where strategy meets capacity. Dated feature lists turn guesses into promises.

What good looks like

  • Items are problems or outcomes, not just features
  • Sequencing reflects dependencies
  • Explicit trade-offs
  • Commitment falls with distance

Deliberately not measured

  • Gantt formatting
Capability tested

Sequencing under constraints

The failure we’re looking for

A dated wishlist sorted by excitement

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review