Tasks / Product Craft

Build a roadmap

Can the model sequence bets against capacity and dependencies, and explain the order?

Task type v1.0 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 18 graded outputs by 9 models. 72% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Produces the required deliverable96% pass
    The roadmap is complete, in the right form for a Group PM, within the word limit, and actionable without major gaps.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Fourteen requests from one customer
  2. Outcomes, with certainty that falls with distance96% pass
    Every item names its outcome (e.g., reduce paper transcription, reduce manual reconciliation), and near-term items are specific while later ones are deliberately looser (e.g., '7 weeks for rollout, workflow improvement and contingency').
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Fourteen requests from one customer
  3. Handles the big customer with evidence94% pass
    It uses Calder's rising usage and the second-hand 'might leave' to propose a conversation first, not committing the report builder, and offers a bounded export if needed.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Fourteen requests from one customer

Where it slips

  1. Fits the stated capacity53% pass
    Q3 Expenses row lacks squad-week allocation, so the committed plan cannot be fully checked against the 11-week capacity.
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · A year of spend management, with a hard deadline
  2. Tells the story of the bets54% pass
    The roadmap table is organized by squad, not grouped into a few themes, though the case provides thematic reasoning.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · A year of spend management, with a hard deadline
  3. Sees through the request count72% pass
    The output never counts requests by requester, does not mention that 14 requests come from Calder or that several are duplicates, and does not compare themes by customer count.
    GPT-6 Luna · API · Fourteen requests from one customer

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

  1. Outcomes, with certainty that falls with distance

    Does each roadmap item say the problem or outcome it serves, and does precision (dates, scope) decrease for later items?

    Passes when Every item names its outcome or problem. Near-term items are specific and later ones are deliberately looser.

  2. Fits the stated capacity

    Does the committed plan fit the team capacity the brief gives, with sums a reader could check, and does it say what was cut or deferred to make it fit?

    Passes when The committed work adds up to no more than the stated capacity, with some slack, the sums can be checked, and it names what was cut or pushed later and why.

  3. Tells the story of the bets

    Does the roadmap group the work into a few themes and explain why those are the biggest things to invest in now, rather than presenting a scored or ranked list of projects?

    Passes when A handful of themes, each with the reason it matters most now, and the items sit under them.

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · Sequences around dependencies · and 3 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're a Staff PM at Harbor. Tom Achebe, our CEO, has shared his draft roadmap for the next four quarters (Q4 2026 to Q3 2027), and asked you to turn it into the roadmap we take to next week's planning offsite. The exec team (CEO, CFO, CRO and CTO) will read it beforehand. Write: 1. The roadmap itself, by quarter or by now, next and later: what each squad works on and the outcome each item serves. 2. The case for it, in no more than 1,200 words: why this order, what you changed from Tom's draft and why, what we're not doing, and the risks that could change the plan. The pack below is everything we have. Not all of it matters equally.

What the model was given12 items: About Harbor, FY27 goal (approved by the board, September 2026), Squads and capacity, Hiring, Card processor deadline, Candidate work (estimates in squad-weeks, by owning squad), Tom's draft roadmap, Procurement evidence, Card spend evidence, Multi-entity evidence, Integrations evidence, Other asks
About HarborSpend management (corporate cards, expenses and approvals) for companies with 200 to 2,000 employees. 1,100 customers, $86M ARR, average 700 employees per customer. 58% of revenue is interchange on card spend; the rest is subscription. Net revenue retention (NRR) is 104%.
FY27 goal (approved by the board, September 2026)Raise NRR to 112% by the end of Q3 2027 by expanding inside existing customers: more spend on Harbor cards, more entities and more modules. New-logo growth matters, but it comes second this year.
Squads and capacityFive squads: Cards, Expenses, Approvals & Policy, Integrations and Platform. After support and on-call, each has about 11 squad-weeks of roadmap capacity a quarter. Squads can take work from another squad's area, but it takes them about 1.5× as long.
HiringTwo new squads were approved in September 2026. Tom's draft counts the first from Q1 2027 and the second from Q2 2027, both at full capacity. Last year, our three approved squads took 5, 6 and 8 months from approval to their first full sprint, and each delivered about half its capacity in its first quarter.
Card processor deadlineOur card processor retires its v1 API on 31 March 2027. Every card authorisation we process runs through v1 today. Migrating to v2 is about 18 squad-weeks of Cards work, and the processor must then run 4 weeks of certification testing before we can cut over. Certification is the processor's time, not ours, but nothing can change on our side while it runs.
Candidate work (estimates in squad-weeks, by owning squad)1. Processor v2 migration: Cards 18. Hard deadline above. 2. Virtual cards for software subscriptions: Cards 10. Needs v2. 3. Real-time spend controls (declines out-of-policy spend at the point of sale): Cards 8, Approvals & Policy 4. Needs v2. 4. Procurement module (purchase requests and approvals, a new paid add-on): Approvals & Policy 30, Integrations 6. 5. Multi-entity support (subsidiaries under one parent account): Platform 12, Approvals & Policy 10. 6. Sage Intacct integration: Integrations 9. 7. Microsoft Dynamics integration: Integrations 12. 8. SSO and SCIM provisioning: Platform 5. 9. Receipt-matching improvements: Expenses 6. 10. Mobile app rewrite: Expenses 22.
Tom's draft roadmapQ4 2026: Cards: v2 migration. Approvals & Policy: multi-entity. Integrations: Intacct. Platform: multi-entity. Expenses: receipt matching. Q1 2027: Cards: finish migration, start virtual cards. New squad A: procurement module. Integrations: Dynamics. Platform: SSO and SCIM. Q2 2027: Cards: virtual cards, spend controls. New squad A: procurement launch. New squad B: mobile rewrite. Q3 2027: Cards: spend controls. Everyone else: procurement adoption, mobile launch. Tom's note: “Procurement is our path to 112%. I've told the board it can add $6M of ARR in its first year.”
Procurement evidenceSix design partners have used a prototype since June. Two said they would pay for it; the other four already use a dedicated procurement tool and said they'd need a reason to switch. Proposed price: $8 per user per month, for users who raise purchase requests. At our customers, about 10% of employees raise purchase requests.
Card spend evidenceIn QBRs with our 60 largest customers, 26 asked for virtual cards for software subscriptions, and 31 CFOs asked for real-time spend controls. Finance estimates our customers pay about $410M a year of software subscriptions on other cards or by invoice (extrapolated from the 60 QBR accounts). Our net interchange is 1.1% of card spend.
Multi-entity evidence14 of our 60 largest customers have asked for it. Between them they have 52 subsidiaries not on Harbor, and 9 of the 14 have said in writing they would add their subsidiaries once it exists. Customer Success sized it at $2.9M ARR if all 52 joined at their parents' pricing.
Integrations evidence17% of customers use Sage Intacct through a CSV export. Their gross revenue churn is 13% a year, against 7% for customers on our NetSuite integration. Intacct was cited in 31% of lost new-logo deals last year, Dynamics in 8%. 3% of customers use Dynamics.
Other asksCRO: “Five enterprise deals worth $1.2M of pipeline need SSO and SCIM, and 11 existing accounts have it on their security review list.” CTO: “The mobile app is on a framework version that loses support in late 2027, and I want the rewrite done before then.” Support: receipt auto-match is at 71%, and unmatched receipts are the most common expense ticket.
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

A four-quarter roadmap that protects the 31 March deadline: the migration build has to finish by about early March to leave 4 weeks of certification, which is roughly all of Cards' capacity for Q4 and most of Q1 (18 of about 18 squad-weeks available before certification). So it adds help or buffer (Platform or another squad at 1.5×, or cutting everything else from Cards) and moves virtual cards out of Q1: both v2 features start only after cut-over (virtual cards Q2, spend controls Q2–Q3). It treats the new squads as upside: on past hiring they arrive around February to April 2027 and deliver half capacity in their first quarter, so nothing committed depends on them before Q2–Q3. It makes a clear call on procurement: the $6M claim needs about 890 accounts (81% of customers) paying $6,720 a year each (70 requesters × $8 × 12), and only 2 of 6 design partners would pay, so it replaces the 30-week build with a cheap paid test with a threshold, and keeps Approvals & Policy on multi-entity and spend controls, which have stronger expansion evidence ($2.9M sized, 9 of 14 committed in writing; about $1.5M a year of interchange from moving a third of the $410M of subscriptions onto virtual cards). Intacct comes early for its churn; Dynamics later or cut; SSO and SCIM are small and justified; the mobile rewrite waits for a new squad, before the framework's support ends. It lists what changed from Tom's draft, what's not being done, and the risks (certification slipping, hiring slipping), with commitment falling with distance.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Leaves the processor migration finishing too late for 4 weeks of certification before 31 March 2027, or schedules virtual cards or real-time spend controls before it
Task

Staff-level · v1.7

The outputs

9 setups answered this brief.

Usable with a quick edit10 of 13 checks passed

The output is a well-argued, evidence-based roadmap and case that a PM could take to the offsite with only minor polish.

Output

FY27 Product Roadmap: Path to 112% NRR

To: Tom Achebe (CEO), CFO, CRO, CTO From: Staff PM Subject: Pre-read: Proposed Q4 2026 – Q3 2027 Product Roadmap

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1. The FY27 Roadmap (Q4 2026 – Q3 2027)

To hit 112% NRR by the end of Q3 2027, we need $6.88M in net expansion ARR (8% of our $86M base). Because expansion revenue only counts toward Q3 NRR if it is live, rolled out, and generating spend before the end of Q3, this roadmap front-loads our highest-conviction NRR drivers and protects our core card infrastructure.

Note on Capacity: Each existing squad has 11 squad-weeks (SW) per quarter. Cross-squad work incurs a 1.5× penalty (e.g., 4 SW of native work takes 6 SW for a borrowing squad). New squads are modeled using our historical hiring baselines: 6 months to onboard and 50% capacity (5.5 SW) in their first active quarter.

Q4 2026: Clear the Decks & Lock In Quick Wins

  • Cards: Processor v2 Migration (11 of 18 SW). Outcome: Protect 58% of Harbor’s revenue ahead of the March 31 hard deadline.
  • Approvals & Policy (A&P): Multi-Entity Support (10 of 10 SW). Outcome: Unlock $2.9M ARR subsidiary expansion pipeline.
  • Platform: Multi-Entity Support (11 of 12 SW). Outcome: Same as above; ships in week 1 of Q1.
  • Integrations: Sage Intacct Integration (9 of 9 SW). Outcome: Slash gross churn from 13% to ~7% across 17% of our customer base (~$880k ARR saved) and remove the blocker in 31% of lost new-logo deals.
  • Expenses: Receipt-Matching Improvements (6 of 6 SW); begin Mobile App Rewrite (5 of 22 SW). Outcome: Cut our #1 support ticket driver to free up engineering on-call capacity; start retiring late-2027 mobile framework debt.

Q1 2027: Cutover v2 & Launch Multi-Entity

  • Cards: Finish Processor v2 Migration (3 SW in Weeks 1–3), Freeze for Certification (Weeks 4–7), Cutover (Week 8). Start Virtual Cards for SaaS (8 of 10 SW, built on v2 environment). Outcome: Zero card downtime on March 31; pull Virtual Cards launch into early Q2.
  • A&P: Assist Cards on Processor v2 Migration (6 SW = 4 native Cards SW in Weeks 1–6); Real-Time Spend Controls (4 of 4 native SW). Outcome: Crucial cross-squad assist ensures Cards hits the Feb 1 code freeze for v2 certification.
  • Platform: Finish Multi-Entity (1 of 12 SW); SSO & SCIM Provisioning (5 of 5 SW); Multi-Entity customer onboarding & scale hardening (5 SW). Outcome: Ship Multi-Entity in January for immediate CS expansion selling; unlock $1.2M new-logo pipeline and protect 11 enterprise renewals.
  • Integrations: Microsoft Dynamics Integration (11 of 12 SW). Outcome: Retain the 3% of base on Dynamics and remove the 8% new-logo blocker.
  • Expenses: Mobile App Rewrite (11 of 22 SW). Outcome: Hit 73% completion on mobile debt retirement without hiring dependencies.

Q2 2027: Capture the $410M Card Spend Opportunity

  • Cards: Finish Virtual Cards for SaaS (2 of 10 SW—Ships April); Real-Time Spend Controls (8 of 8 SW—Ships June). Outcome: Capture share of the $410M in off-Harbor software spend ($4.5M total interchange pool) requested by 43% of top customers; give 52% of top CFOs the point-of-sale controls needed to move remaining company spend to Harbor.
  • A&P: Spend Controls integration support & policy templates (4 SW); Discovery & v2 Architecture for Light Vendor/PO Workflows (7 SW). Outcome: Ensure rapid adoption of Spend Controls; re-architect our procurement approach (see The Case below).
  • Integrations: Finish Dynamics (1 of 12 SW); ERP syncing for Virtual Cards & Multi-Entity (10 SW). Outcome: Ensure seamless reconciliation for expanded multi-entity and SaaS card spend.
  • Platform: Card spend limit notifications, alerting & multi-entity RBAC (11 SW). Outcome: Drive self-serve adoption of Virtual Cards across existing accounts.
  • Expenses: Finish Mobile App Rewrite (6 of 22 SW—Ships May); Card spend receipt automation (5 SW). Outcome: Retire framework support risk 6 months ahead of CTO deadline.
  • New Squad A (Ramping: 5.5 SW): Build self-serve migration tools for recurring SaaS bills to Virtual Cards. Outcome: Accelerate time-to-interchange for Virtual Cards.

Q3 2027: Drive Adoption to Lock In 112% NRR

  • Cards & Platform: Automated SaaS vendor detection (flagging invoice spend in ERP to convert to Virtual Cards) & card limit auto-top-ups. Outcome: Maximize interchange realization before Q3 closes.
  • A&P, New Squad A (11 SW) & New Squad B (5.5 SW): Build redesigned intake-to-card workflows (issuing single-use PO virtual cards upon approval). Outcome: Monetize approval workflows via interchange and seat expansion rather than competing head-on with entrenched procurement suites.
  • Integrations & Expenses: In-app onboarding and bulk-provisioning tooling for Multi-Entity subsidiaries. Outcome: Help CS close the remaining 52 subsidiaries before EOY.

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2. The Case for This Roadmap

Why This Order? (The Math to 112% NRR)

To add $6.88M in net ARR by the end of Q3 2027, we must prioritize high-margin revenue protection and high-velocity expansion that can land in H1 2027: 1. Stop the bleeding via Intacct & SSO (+$0.9M to $1.1M ARR retained): NRR is a net number; every dollar of churn avoided is a dollar of expansion we don't have to sell. 17% of our base (~$14.6M ARR) uses Intacct via CSV and churns at 13% vs. 7% for NetSuite. Fixing this in Q4 saves ~$880k/yr in gross churn and unlocks 31% of lost deals. Pairing this with SSO/SCIM in Q1 secures 11 enterprise accounts under security review. 2. Ship Multi-Entity in week 1 of Q1 (+$1.8M to $2.9M ARR): 9 top customers have committed in writing to add subsidiaries once live. Sizing all 52 subsidiaries in the top-60 cohort equals $2.9M ARR—and more exist across our other 1,040 customers. Shipping in January gives CS three full quarters to close and onboard these entities. 3. Unleash Card Spend in Q2 (+$2.5M to $3.5M ARR): Our customers spend $410M/yr on software off-Harbor. At 1.1% net interchange, that is a $4.51M high-margin revenue pool sitting inside our existing base. Nearly half (26 of 60) of our largest accounts are actively asking for Virtual Cards for subscriptions, and 31 CFOs want Real-Time Spend Controls. Unlike new modules that require procurement cycles and legal sign-off, turning on virtual cards for existing customers generates interchange revenue the day a card is swiped.

Combined with our baseline 104% NRR ($3.44M), capturing just half of our conservative targets across these three pillars puts us at 112.5% NRR ($96.8M ARR) by Q3.

What Changed from Tom’s Draft—and Why

1. Resolving the March 31 Card Processor Crisis Tom’s draft had the Cards squad doing the 18-SW v2 migration across Q4 and Q1. However, Cards only has 11 SW per quarter. Furthermore, the processor requires a 4-week certification freeze before the March 31 cutover. To cut over by March 31, code must be finished by February 26 (Week 8 of Q1). In 19 weeks of calendar time, the Cards squad only has ~17.5 SW of capacity—leaving zero margin for error and pushing Virtual Cards into late Q2/Q3. * The Fix: In Q1, Approvals & Policy gives 6 SW of capacity (yielding 4 native SW at the 1.5× cross-squad rate) to the Cards team. This finishes all 18 SW of v2 code by the end of January, allowing certification in February, safe cutover in early March, and pulling Virtual Cards forward by 6 weeks.

2. Replacing the $6M Procurement Bet with Card Expansion Tom’s draft relies on Procurement to add $6M ARR in year one. The customer and capacity math does not support this: * The Revenue Math: At $8/month ($96/yr) for the 10% of employees who raise purchase requests (70 users per average 700-person customer), 100% adoption across all 1,100 customers would only generate $7.39M ARR. To hit $6M in Year 1, we would have to sell an unbuilt add-on to 81% of our entire customer base in two quarters. Yet in our design partner trial, 4 of 6 customers already had a procurement tool and refused to switch, and only 2 (33%) were willing to pay. Realistic Year-1 ARR is ~$500k–$900k. * The Capacity Math: Procurement requires 30 SW from A&P and 6 SW from Integrations. Tom assigned this to "New Squad A" starting in Q1. Last year, our new squads took 5 to 8 months to reach their first sprint, and delivered 50% capacity in their first quarter. Approved in September, Squad A won't run a sprint until Q2 2027 (delivering ~5.5 SW), and as a brand-new squad working in A&P's domain, they face the 1.5× ramp penalty. Assigned to Squad A, a 36-SW Procurement module would not ship until Q1 2028—contributing $0 to FY27 NRR.

3. De-risking the Mobile App Rewrite Tom assigned the 22-SW Mobile Rewrite to "New Squad B" in Q2. Approved in September, Squad B likely won't start until Q3 2027 at half capacity (5.5 SW), missing the CTO’s late-2027 framework end-of-life deadline. By keeping our existing Expenses squad on Mobile starting in Q4 (after a 6-SW sprint on Receipt Matching), we complete the rewrite in Q2 2027 with zero hiring dependency.

What We Are Not Doing

  • We are not building a standalone, 36-SW Procurement Module in H1. We cannot justify starving Multi-Entity and Spend Controls to build a module that 67% of design partners rejected and that cannot ship in time to impact FY27 NRR. Instead, in Q2/Q3, we will explore lightweight PO-to-Virtual-Card workflows that drive card spend rather than competing with Coupa or Zip.
  • We are not counting on un-hired squads for critical-path H1 deliverables. New Squads A and B are scheduled for Q2 and Q3 respectively, focused on adoption tooling and H2 expansion where hiring delays won't threaten our board target or infrastructure deadlines.

Key Risks That Could Change This Plan

  1. Processor v2 Certification Rejections: If the processor finds bugs during the 4-week February certification window, our freeze extends and delays Virtual Cards. Mitigation: By using A&P to help finish the build in January, we buy a 4-week buffer before the March 31 cliff.
  2. Cross-Squad Ramp Friction: Having A&P take on 4 SW of Cards work (costing 6 SW) in Q1 requires clean work partitioning. Mitigation: Cards will own the core v2 authorization webhooks; A&P will own isolated migration scripts and fallback testing.
  3. Slower Multi-Entity Sales Cycles: While 9 accounts gave written intent, parent-subsidiary contract addendums can stall in legal. Mitigation: CS and Finance must pre-negotiate subsidiary pricing addendums with the 14 target accounts in Q4 so we can bill immediately upon the January release.

Grades and run details

Decision model 62 · LLM judge 100
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly41%
  • passAddresses the actual decision70%
  • partialRespects explicit constraints11%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty53%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims46%
  • passProduces the required deliverable49%
  • partialProtects the processor deadline9%
  • passPlans on the squads we actually have89%
  • partialMakes the call on procurement73%
  • passOutcomes, with certainty that falls with distance67%
  • failFits the stated capacity64%
  • passSequences around dependencies11%
  • failTells the story of the bets74%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
32 s
Submitted
13 Oct 2026
Critical failure: Leaves the processor migration finishing too late for 4 weeks of certification before 31 March 2027, or schedules virtual cards or real-time spend controls before it. Score capped at 40.

Needs more than a quick edit5 of 13 checks passed

The roadmap has capacity overruns, a critical dependency violation, and a miscalculated procurement case. A PM would need to redo the capacity planning and procurement analysis.

Output

Harbor FY27 Product Roadmap

Prepared by: Staff PM, Harbor For: Executive Team Review (CEO, CFO, CRO, CTO)

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Part 1: The FY27 Roadmap (Q4 2026 – Q3 2027)

Our roadmap is structured into horizons (Now, Next, Later) to account for squad capacity constraints, hiring lead times, and critical infrastructure dependencies. Every initiative directly maps to our core FY27 mandate: raising NRR from 104% to 112%.

NOW (Q4 2026)

Focus: Mandatory infrastructure, unblocking enterprise sales security requirements, and protecting existing revenue.

  • Cards Squad (11 squad-weeks):
  • Processor v2 API Migration (11/18 sw used): Commencing the mandatory migration off the retiring v1 API.
  • Platform Squad (11 squad-weeks):
  • SSO and SCIM Provisioning (5 sw): Directly unblocks $1.2M in enterprise pipeline and clears 11 existing account security reviews (CRO request).
  • Multi-Entity Foundation (6/12 sw used): Architectural groundwork for parent-subsidiary accounts.
  • Integrations Squad (11 squad-weeks):
  • Sage Intacct Integration (9 sw): Addresses our highest-churn segment (13% churn vs. 7% on NetSuite) and eliminates a major barrier in lost new-logo deals (31% of losses).
  • Spillover buffer (2 sw).
  • Expenses Squad (11 squad-weeks):
  • Receipt-Matching Improvements (6 sw): Bumps auto-match above 71% to reduce the most common support ticket category.
  • Mobile App Rewrite - Phase 1 (5/22 sw used): Early scoping and architecture on the CTO's supported framework upgrade.
  • Approvals & Policy Squad (11 squad-weeks):
  • Multi-Entity Approval Workflows (10 sw): Pairing with Platform to enable cross-subsidiary governance.
  • Spillover buffer (1 sw).

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NEXT (Q1 2027)

Focus: Completing technical debt, launching high-value expansion modules, and integrating critical ERPs.

  • Cards Squad (11 squad-weeks):
  • Processor v2 API Migration - Completion (7/18 sw used): Finalising code before the March 31 deadline, entering the 4-week certification freeze.
  • Virtual Cards for Software Subscriptions - Initiation (4/10 sw used).
  • Integrations Squad (11 squad-weeks):
  • Microsoft Dynamics Integration (12 sw adjusted to 11 sw capacity via minor scoping): Expanding our enterprise ERP footprint.
  • Platform Squad (11 squad-weeks):
  • Multi-Entity Support - Completion (6/12 sw used): Finalising multi-subsidiary entity structures.
  • Expenses Squad (11 squad-weeks):
  • Mobile App Rewrite - Phase 2 (11/22 sw used): Core feature porting and UI overhaul.
  • New Squad A (Hired Dec 2026, delivering at ~50% capacity = ~5.5 sw):
  • Procurement Module - Phase 1 (5.5/30 sw used): Setting up core purchase requests and initial approval logic.

(Note: During Q1, the card processor runs 4 weeks of certification testing. No changes can be deployed to card flows during this time).

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LATER (Q2 – Q3 2027)

Focus: Unlocking high-margin card spend, launching the flagship procurement add-on, and modernizing mobile infrastructure.

  • Q2 2027 (Squads operating at full scale, plus New Squad B onboarding):
  • Cards Squad: Virtual Cards for Software Subscriptions (6 sw remaining) & Real-time Spend Controls (8 sw).
  • New Squad A (Procurement): Procurement Module - Phase 2 (18 sw total across Q2).
  • Expenses Squad: Mobile App Rewrite - Phase 3 / Launch Preparation (11 sw remaining of 22).
  • New Squad B (Hiring initiated Q1, arriving Q2, delivering ~5.5 sw): Deployed to accelerate Procurement integrations (Integrations/A&P support).
  • Q3 2027 (Fully ramped capacity across 7 squads):
  • Cards Squad: Real-time Spend Controls rollout and optimization.
  • New Squad A & B: Procurement Module Launch, GA, and initial adoption drives.
  • Expenses Squad: Mobile App GA (satisfying CTO's late-2027 framework deprecation timeline).
  • Platform / A&P / Integrations: Cross-functional adoption loops for Procurement, Multi-Entity, and Dynamics/Intacct.

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Part 2: The Case for the Roadmap

1. Why This Order? (Balancing Reality and Ambition)

Our mandate is clear: raise NRR to 112% by the end of Q3 2027. To achieve this, we must unlock high-value expansion vectors (Procurement, Virtual Cards, Multi-Entity) while shoring up retention leaks (Sage Intacct churn, mobile app obsolescence, enterprise security blocks).

However, ambition must bow to physics. Tom’s draft roadmap contained a fatal flaw: it assumed new squads would ship code on day one and deliver 100% capacity immediately. Historical data at Harbor proves that newly approved squads take 5 to 8 months to reach their first full sprint and deliver roughly 50% capacity in their first quarter.

Furthermore, Tom’s draft scheduled the Procurement module to launch in Q2 2027 using a brand-new squad. Under realistic hiring timelines (approving the first squad in September means they only start shipping in earnest in Q1 at half-capacity), that timeline was impossible.

We have ordered this roadmap to respect three non-negotiable constraints: 1. The Card Processor Hard Deadline: On March 31, 2027, our processor kills the v1 API. If we do not finish the 18 squad-weeks of migration and the 4-week certification freeze by then, our card processing halts entirely—crushing 58% of our revenue. 2. Realistic Squad Ramp-Up: New Squad A (approved September) is phased in realistically for Q1 (delivering ~5.5 squad-weeks) and hits full stride in Q2. New Squad B is phased in for Q2. 3. Sequence of Dependencies: Virtual Cards and Real-time Spend Controls technically require the v2 API. Therefore, they cannot launch until Q2, immediately following the Q1 v2 migration and certification window.

2. What We Changed from Tom’s Draft and Why

  • Shifted Procurement Timelines and Squad Allocation: Tom’s draft had New Squad A building and launching Procurement in Q1/Q2. Given historical hiring lags and the massive scope of Procurement (30 sw for Approvals & Policy + 6 sw for Integrations), we have stretched Procurement development across Q1 (New Squad A partial capacity) and Q2 (full capacity + New Squad B support), targeting a GA in Q3. Trying to rush it in Q2 would result in a broken launch or squad burn-out.
  • Shifted Real-Time Spend Controls and Virtual Cards to Q2: Tom scheduled virtual cards in Q1. Because virtual cards and spend controls depend on the v2 API, and the processor locks us out for 4 weeks of certification testing during Q1, these items are now correctly sequenced for Q2 deployment, ensuring zero downtime risk.
  • Brought Forward Enterprise Security & Retention Fixes (Q4): We moved SSO/SCIM, Sage Intacct, and receipt-matching improvements into Q4. Why? Because NRR isn't just about selling new modules; it's about stopping the bleeding. Sage Intacct users churn at nearly double the rate of NetSuite users (13% vs 7%), and Intacct blocks 31% of new-logo deals. Fixing this now preserves our base. Similarly, securing $1.2M in enterprise pipeline via SSO/SCIM in Q4 directly supports our growth goals without waiting for unproven modules.

3. What We Are Not Doing (And Why)

To protect focus and deliver on our NRR targets, we are explicitly declining or deferring several candidate items: * Alternative ERP Integrations (Beyond Intacct and Dynamics): While long-tail ERP requests exist, our data shows Intacct (17% of customers, high churn) and Dynamics (enterprise blocker) are the revenue levers that matter. Other ERPs are deferred to FY28. * Ad-Hoc Feature Requests from QBRs: While 26 out of 60 top customers asked for software virtual cards, we are delivering that. However, we are saying no to custom reporting suites and bespoke workflow builders requested by individual accounts until multi-entity and procurement are fully bedded down.

4. Risks That Could Change the Plan

1. Card Processor Certification Delays: * Risk: The processor’s 4-week certification window uncovers critical bugs on our side, forcing us to rewrite v2 migration code during the freeze. * Mitigation: We have front-loaded the 18 squad-weeks of migration work into Q4 and early Q1 to ensure we submit for certification well ahead of the March 31 hard stop. 2. Hiring Velocity for New Squads: * Risk: Tech talent market tightening could delay the onboarding of New Squad A and B engineers. * Mitigation: If hiring slips by a quarter, New Squad B’s intake is dropped, and the Procurement launch slips from late Q2 to mid-Q3. We would backfill critical path items by temporarily reallocating the Platform squad. 3. Procurement Adoption Skepticism: * Risk: Design partner feedback indicates that 4 out of 6 design partners already use dedicated procurement tools and need strong convincing to switch. Tom’s assumption of $6M ARR in Year 1 may be aggressive if attach rates lag. * Mitigation: At $8/user/month (impacting ~10% of employees at a 700-employee average customer = ~$6,700 ARR per customer), we need roughly 90 enterprise customers adopting it in Year 1 to hit the $6M target. Success hinges on Customer Success and Sales enablement, which begins in Q2 alongside build completion.

Grades and run details

Decision model 31 · LLM judge 50
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly22%
  • partialAddresses the actual decision25%
  • failRespects explicit constraints83%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty31%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims45%
  • partialProduces the required deliverable56%
  • failProtects the processor deadline49%
  • partialPlans on the squads we actually have72%
  • failMakes the call on procurement66%
  • partialOutcomes, with certainty that falls with distance43%
  • failFits the stated capacity70%
  • failSequences around dependencies76%
  • partialTells the story of the bets53%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
10 s
Submitted
1 Oct 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 8

Respects explicit constraintsRightMixed
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The roadmap is by quarter, the case is under 1,200 words, and the memo is addressed to the exec team as requested.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Delivers a roadmap by now/next/later and a case under 1,200 words, as requested.

Avoids unsupported claimsRightWrong
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Interpretations and forecasts are clearly labelled as estimates or conclusions, not as established facts.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Presents the forecast 'we need roughly 90 enterprise customers' as fact, but the correct arithmetic is ~893, making the claim unsupported.

Protects the processor deadlineRightWrong
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The migration builds finish by late January, leaving 4 weeks of certification plus buffer, and v2 features start only after cutover.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Starts virtual cards in Q1 before the v2 cut-over, and provides no buffer or help for the migration, risking the deadline.

Plans on the squads we actually haveRightWrong
Gemini 4 Argon · API

New squads are modelled to arrive at half capacity in Q2/Q3, and no critical-path deliverables depend on them before then.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Commits the procurement module to a new squad in Q1, relying on an unhired squad for important work before they are proven.

Makes the call on procurementRightWrong
Gemini 4 Argon · API

It shows the $6M claim requires ~81% adoption, weighs the design partner rejection rate, assigns A&P to better-evidenced work, and proposes a lightweight card-driven test instead of the full module.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Does not correctly check the $6M claim (miscalculates 90 customers instead of ~893), does not propose a smaller paid test, and does not commit Approvals & Policy to better-evidenced work.

Fits the stated capacityMixedWrong
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Committed work fits within stated capacity with sums that can be checked, and it explains that the full procurement module and new-squad dependencies were cut.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Q2 Cards squad is over capacity (14 sw vs 11), New Squad A is over capacity (18 sw vs 11), and the required Approvals & Policy work for spend controls is missing.

Sequences around dependenciesRightWrong
Gemini 4 Argon · API

v2 features start after migration and certification; multi-entity, Intacct and other items are sequenced around their dependencies.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Virtual cards start before the v2 cut-over, and the spend-controls dependency on Approvals & Policy is not respected.

Tells the story of the betsMixedRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The roadmap is grouped into quarterly themes (Clear the Decks, Cutover v2, Capture Card Spend, Drive Adoption) that tell a coherent investment story.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Groups work into Now/Next/Later with clear themes and rationale.

All mixed 1

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyMixedMixed
Gemini 4 Argon · API

All factual claims about current situation are drawn directly from the brief or context, or follow from arithmetic.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

All factual statements about the current situation are taken directly from the supplied context.

All got right 4

Addresses the actual decisionRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The output commits to a clear roadmap and a case that directly answers the CEO's request, with risks that could change the plan.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Commits to a clear roadmap and case, and states what would change the plan (risks).

Identifies material uncertaintyRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

It names specific risks (certification rejections, cross-squad friction, multi-entity legal stalls) and describes how they could change the plan.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Names specific risks (certification delays, hiring velocity, procurement adoption) and how they would be resolved.

Produces the required deliverableRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The roadmap and case are complete, in the requested form, and could be used by the exec team with light edits.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The roadmap and case are present, complete, and usable for the exec team.

Outcomes, with certainty that falls with distanceRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

Every roadmap item states an outcome; near-term quarters are specific and later ones are deliberately looser.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

Every item names an outcome, and later items are deliberately looser.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated. Where our PM checked the graders by hand, they agreed on 79% of 150 checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT88.0100.02None
2Opus 5.5withClaude88.396.42None
3GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI88.396.42None
4Sonnet 5.5withAPI90.292.62None
5Haiku 5.5withAPI74.496.42None
6GPT-6 LunawithAPI84.085.42None
7Gemini 4 ArgonwithAPI62.088.52None
8Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI58.366.82None
9Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini57.136.521 capped

What you get for the cost

GPT-6.1 Sol · API scores within a point of GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT at a sixth of the cost.

Task score against relative cost for each setup. The table below has the same figures.304050607080901001×3×10×30×Cost per output, relative to the cheapest setup (log scale) →↑ Task scoreGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT: task score 94, 39× the cheapestOpus 5.5 · Claude: task score 93, 37× the cheapestGPT-6.1 Sol · API: task score 93, 6.9× the cheapestSonnet 5.5 · API: task score 92, 36× the cheapestHaiku 5.5 · API: task score 86, 2.1× the cheapestGPT-6 Luna · API: task score 84, the cheapestGemini 4 Argon · API: task score 77, 6.7× the cheapestGemini 3.8 Flash · API: task score 60, 5.5× the cheapestGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini: task score 45, the cheapest, 1 critical failureGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPTOpus 5.5 · ClaudeGPT-6.1 Sol · APISonnet 5.5 · APIHaiku 5.5 · APIGPT-6 Luna · APIGemini 4 Argon · APIGemini 3.8 Flash · APIGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini
Best valueNobody beats these on both score and costAt least one critical failure
Task score and relative cost by setup
SetupTask scoreRelative cost (cheapest = 1)
GPT-6 Luna · API841.0×
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini451.1×
Haiku 5.5 · API862.1×
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API605.5×
Gemini 4 Argon · API776.7×
GPT-6.1 Sol · API936.9×
Sonnet 5.5 · API9236×
Opus 5.5 · Claude9337×
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT9439×

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

About the task

The PM job

Turning strategy into a sequenced plan.

Why it matters

A roadmap is where strategy meets capacity. Dated feature lists turn guesses into promises.

What good looks like

  • Items are problems or outcomes, not just features
  • Sequencing reflects dependencies
  • Explicit trade-offs
  • Commitment falls with distance

Deliberately not measured

  • Gantt formatting
Capability tested

Sequencing under constraints

The failure we’re looking for

A dated wishlist sorted by excitement

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review