Tasks / Product Craft

Extract discovery insights

Can the model separate evidence, themes and hypotheses without inventing consensus?

Task type v1.1 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 16 graded outputs by 8 models. 50% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Frames findings for the decision100% pass
    Each main finding is framed as an opportunity (delivery-to-invoice pain, concentrated supplier need) and linked directly to what to build next quarter.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · The loudest ticket
  2. Corrects the draft's claim100% pass
    It corrects the draft's headline by counting interviews (8 describe delivery/invoice pain, 2 mention supplier expansion) and showing the marketplace claim is unsupported.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · The loudest ticket
  3. Keeps dissent visible100% pass

Where it slips

  1. Says how many sources support each finding52% pass
    The finding on smaller issues sizes Ordering as 31 tickets, but the actual count is 30, so the finding is not accurately sized.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · The loudest ticket
  2. Uses the supplied evidence correctly59% pass
    The output states Ordering has 31 tickets, but the CSV contains 30 Ordering tickets; this factual claim is not supported by the supplied data.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · The loudest ticket
  3. Avoids unsupported claims63% pass
    The claim 'Ordering (31 tickets)' is presented as an established fact, but the evidence shows 30 Ordering tickets, so it is an unsupported confident claim.
    Sonnet 5.5 · API · The loudest ticket

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

  1. Weights behaviour over opinion

    Does the synthesis distinguish evidence of what customers actually did (specific past instances, observed behaviour, workarounds) from stated preferences, predictions and feature requests, and weight them accordingly?

    Passes when Themes are labelled or weighted by evidence type, and at least one theme resting mainly on stated intent or requests is flagged as weaker.

  2. Frames findings for the decision

    Does the synthesis turn its findings into opportunities tied to the decision or outcome the team faces, saying what each one means for that decision?

    Passes when Each main finding is framed as an opportunity (a need or pain to address) and linked to the decision at hand, with what it implies.

  3. Reports what cuts against the plan

    Does the synthesis report the evidence that cuts against the team's current belief or plan, rather than only what supports it?

    Passes when Names at least one finding that challenges the team's hypothesis or plan, and says what it means for it.

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · Says how many sources support each finding · and 2 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're the PM for Larder's ordering product. A colleague has drafted the synthesis below for our CPO, recommending a supplier marketplace. Before it goes, rewrite the synthesis from the evidence, in no more than 800 words: the main findings, how strong the evidence for each is, and what they mean for what we build next quarter. The interviews and the ticket export are attached.

What the model was given4 items: About Larder, draft_synthesis.md, interview_excerpts.md, support_tickets_last_quarter.csv
About LarderOrdering software for restaurants: order from your suppliers in one place, track deliveries and invoices. 1,140 accounts, most of them independent restaurants.
draft_synthesis.md6 lines · Download
# Draft synthesis (PM, for the CPO)

Headline: customers want a supplier marketplace.
- "Add more suppliers" is our top support category by far.
- Most customers we spoke to want a marketplace (see Calder Group and the pizzeria).
- Recommendation: build a supplier marketplace next quarter.
interview_excerpts.md12 lines · Download
# Interview excerpts (restaurant owners and managers, September)

1. Bistro, 2 sites: "Last Tuesday the fish order came short again. I only found out when the invoice came, a week later. I spent Sunday night matching delivery notes to invoices with a highlighter."
2. Café group, 5 sites: "We switched produce supplier twice this year, but finding suppliers isn't the problem. Knowing what actually arrived is."
3. Pizzeria, 1 site: "Honestly I'd love more suppliers in the app. More choice, better prices."
4. Gastropub: "My head chef signs the delivery note without checking. Then I pay for things we never got. Last month that was about £600."
5. Hotel restaurant: "Our finance team chases credit notes for short deliveries every week. It takes days."
…
support_tickets_last_quarter.csv200 rows · Download
ticket,account,account_sites,category,summary
LT-5000,Calder Group,14,Add more suppliers,Can you onboard our meat supplier
LT-5001,Account 1886,3,Ordering,Change delivery day
LT-5002,Account 2004,1,Delivery didn't match order,Short delivery not shown in app
LT-5003,Calder Group,14,Add more suppliers,Add dairy supplier please
LT-5004,Calder Group,14,Add more suppliers,Add dairy supplier please
LT-5005,Account 1858,2,Add more suppliers,Any plans for more suppliers?
…
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Shows that the marketplace headline doesn't hold. 'Add more suppliers' is the biggest ticket category (75 of 200), but 58 of those come from one account, Calder Group; across other accounts, delivery and invoice problems ('delivery didn't match order' and 'invoice reconciliation', 63 tickets) are far more common than supplier requests (17). In the interviews, 7 of 10 describe a specific recent instance of the same pain (short deliveries, invoices that don't match, credit notes, re-typing paper checks), while the marketplace mentions are wishes (the pizzeria 'would love' it, the tapas bar 'I suppose') or come from Calder. Weights what people did over what they say they'd want, counts how many sources support each finding, and recommends focusing next quarter on checking deliveries and reconciling invoices, with the marketplace treated as one large customer's request to handle separately.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Recommends building the supplier marketplace next quarter as the main finding
Task

Staff-level · v1.0

The outputs

8 setups answered this brief.

Needs more than a quick edit9 of 12 checks passed

Factual errors in ticket counts (ordering 31 vs 30, credits export 8 vs 10) and word count exceedance mean a PM would need to re-check evidence and edit for length.

Output

Synthesis: what customers need from Larder next (for the CPO)

Headline: The broadest and best-evidenced problem is that customers can't easily tell what actually arrived, and it costs them money and hours every week. Demand for "more suppliers" is real, but nearly all of it comes from one account. That account wants its own four suppliers connected, which is not the same as a marketplace. Next quarter we should build delivery check-in and discrepancy tracking, and handle Calder Group's request as a bounded onboarding project.

Finding 1: Delivery and invoice mismatches are the most widespread pain

Evidence: strong. It is consistent across both sources, comes from many accounts, and customers describe concrete costs.

  • Tickets: "Delivery didn't match order" (34) and "Invoice reconciliation" (29) describe the same problem from two ends: ordered, received and invoiced don't line up. Together they account for 63 of 200 tickets (32%) from about 62 different accounts. By number of customers affected, this is our largest problem.
  • Interviews: 8 of 10 describe it. Examples:
  • About £600 lost in a month on undelivered items (gastropub).
  • A finance team spending days every week chasing credit notes (hotel).
  • Sunday nights reconciling invoices with a highlighter (bistro).
  • Disputes with suppliers that can't be won without proof (bakery).
  • Checking deliveries on a clipboard, then re-typing everything (noodle bar).
  • Paying mismatched invoices because there's no time to check (steakhouse).

Finding 2: "Add more suppliers" is the top ticket category, but it is essentially one customer

Evidence: strong that the demand is concentrated; weak that there is broad demand for a marketplace.

- Calder Group's tickets: 75 tickets (37.5%) fall in this category, but 58 come from Calder Group alone. They repeatedly ask for the same four suppliers: - Brakes (15 tickets) - Their meat supplier (15) - Their dairy supplier (14) - Their wine merchant (14) They want suppliers they already use connected to Larder. They are not asking to discover new suppliers. - Everyone else: The remaining 17 tickets come from 17 accounts and are mostly generic ("Any plans for more suppliers?", "Would like more produce suppliers"). - Interviews: Only 2 of 10 clearly want this (the pizzeria and Calder). The tapas bar is lukewarm ("I suppose") and says paperwork is the real problem. The café group says outright that "finding suppliers isn't the problem."

The earlier claim that "most customers we spoke to want a marketplace" is not supported.

Finding 3: Calder is a real commercial opportunity of a specific kind

Evidence: moderate. This is one account's clear statement, untested.

  • Calder has 14 sites and says it would move all its ordering to us if its suppliers were on the platform.
  • We don't yet know how much of its ordering runs through Larder today or what the account is worth. We need that before sizing the effort.
  • Their need is met by onboarding four named suppliers, not by building a marketplace.

Other signals

  • Login and access (31 tickets) and ordering questions (31) look routine.
  • One subset matters for the recommendation below: 10 tickets are "can't log in on tablet," and the tablet is where delivery check-in would happen.

Limits of this evidence

  • Small interview sample. There are 10 interviews and we don't know how participants were chosen.
  • One quarter of tickets. Ticket volume measures who contacts support, not who has the problem. Customers who silently pay wrong invoices, like the steakhouse, won't file tickets, so mismatch pain is probably under-counted.
  • Data quality. Support staff assign the categories, and a few accounts show inconsistent site counts across tickets.
  • No usage or revenue data yet. We can't weigh Calder against the long tail of smaller accounts.

What this means for next quarter

1. Build delivery check-in and discrepancy tracking. This is our core promise ("track deliveries and invoices") and is where the broad pain sits. Scope: - Check a delivery against the order at the door, on phone or tablet, replacing the clipboard and the re-typing. - Record shorts, substitutions and short weights, with a photo and timestamp to use as evidence in disputes. - Flag invoice lines that don't match what was received. - Raise credit notes and track them until they arrive. - Show credits in the accountant export (8 tickets ask for this). - Fix tablet login as part of the work.

Success measures: - Share of deliveries checked in. - £ of discrepancies recorded and credited. - Fewer tickets in the two mismatch categories. - Time spent on reconciliation, re-checked with these interviewees.

2. Treat Calder as an account project, not a platform bet. - Work with sales to confirm the account's value and how much of its ordering would move. - Then scope onboarding of the four requested suppliers. This is bounded work that doesn't require a marketplace.

3. Don't build a marketplace next quarter. - If we want to test demand, do it cheaply. Follow up with the 17 non-Calder accounts or run a fake-door test in the app. - Revisit with that data.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • Login and access tickets: 31; ordering questions: 31.
  • Show credits in the accountant export (8 tickets ask for this).

Grades and run details

Decision model 100 · LLM judge 69
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly39%
  • passAddresses the actual decision95%
  • passRespects explicit constraints52%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty92%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims47%
  • passProduces the required deliverable95%
  • passSees one account behind the top ticket100%
  • passCorrects the draft's claim98%
  • passWeights behaviour over opinion100%
  • passSays how many sources support each finding72%
  • passFrames findings for the decision99%
  • passReports what cuts against the plan100%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
72 s
Submitted
5 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit10 of 12 checks passed

The output is well-structured and evidence-based; a quick edit to add a condition for changing the decision would make it fully usable without re-checking evidence or redoing reasoning.

Output

To: Chief Product Officer From: Product Manager, Ordering Subject: Q4 Product Strategy Synthesis: Debunking the Marketplace Hypothesis

---

Executive Summary

The recommendation in the draft synthesis—to build a supplier marketplace—is based on a misinterpretation of support data and interview signals.

A closer analysis reveals that demand for a discovery marketplace is weak. Instead, the data reveals a critical, systemic gap in our core product: delivery verification and invoice reconciliation. Restaurants are losing hundreds of pounds monthly and spending hours manually reconciling short deliveries, substitutions, and incorrect invoices.

Next quarter, we should not build a marketplace. We should build an end-to-end delivery check-in and automated reconciliation workflow.

---

Key Findings & Evidence Strength

#### 1. Demand for a "Supplier Marketplace" is an artifact of a single customer * Finding: Customers are not asking for supplier discovery. What looks like our highest-volume ticket category is heavily skewed by one account, and the few requests for "more suppliers" reflect a desire to bring existing suppliers onto Larder, not discover new ones. * Evidence Strength: High (Quantitative & Qualitative) * Ticket Skew: "Add more suppliers" represents 75 of 200 tickets (37.5%). However, 58 of those 75 tickets (77%) were submitted by a single customer: Calder Group (14 sites), repeatedly requesting onboarding for four specific existing vendors (Brakes, meat, dairy, wine). * Only 17 other accounts (out of 1,140 total accounts, ~1.5%) submitted requests in this category. * Interviews: Only 1 of 10 respondents (Pizzeria) actively asked for a marketplace for choice/pricing. In contrast, multi-site operators explicitly stated: "Finding suppliers isn't the problem. Knowing what actually arrived is" (Café group) and "I'd use a marketplace if it existed, I suppose. But day to day, what kills me is the paperwork" (Tapas bar). Even Calder Group’s interview makes clear their goal is centralizing their existing supply base onto one system.

#### 2. The critical operational pain is post-order delivery check-in and invoice reconciliation * Finding: Restaurants face daily operational chaos and margin loss between order placement and invoice payment. Deliveries arrive short or substituted, chefs lack a frictionless way to record discrepancies, and finance teams waste days chasing credit notes. * Evidence Strength: Very High (Triangulated across support & interviews) * Support Tickets: Combined, Delivery didn't match order (34 tickets) and Invoice reconciliation (29 tickets) account for 63 tickets across ~60 distinct accounts—nearly 4x the unique account breadth of general supplier requests. Core sub-issues include: "Invoice includes items not delivered", "Short delivery not shown in app", "Credit note missing", and "Export for accountant doesn't show credits". * Interviews: 8 out of 10 interviewees cited this as their primary operational bottleneck. The impact is acute and financial: * Direct losses: Gastropub lost ~£600 last month paying for unchecked deliveries; Steakhouse pays unmatched invoices due to lack of time. * Wasted admin: Hotel finance team spends days chasing credit notes; Bistro owner spends Sundays matching notes with highlighters; Noodle bar re-types paper notes into the app. * Dispute friction: Bakery notes supplier disputes are "my word against theirs."

---

What This Means for Next Quarter

Building a two-sided marketplace would require massive operational lift (supplier acquisition, vetting, liquidity) while failing to solve the core retention and efficiency problems of our existing 1,140 accounts.

Instead, we must complete our core product loop: Order $\rightarrow$ Receive $\rightarrow$ Reconcile.

#### Next Quarter Roadmap Priorities

1. P0: Mobile/Tablet Delivery Check-In Flow * Problem solved: Staff currently check goods on paper clipboards or sign blindly. * Feature: Fast, touch-friendly check-in workflow at the delivery door. Staff can mark line items as accepted, short, rejected, or substituted, with photo capture for damaged goods.

2. P1: Discrepancy & Credit Note Tracking * Problem solved: Finance teams manually chase suppliers for credit notes; owners lack proof of short deliveries. * Feature: Automatically generate and email a discrepancy report to the supplier upon delivery check-in, creating an audit trail and tracking outstanding credit notes until resolved.

3. P2: 3-Way Invoice Reconciliation & Accounting Export * Problem solved: Invoices don't match orders, and exports fail to reflect credits. * Feature: Match PO $\rightarrow$ Delivery Note $\rightarrow$ Final Invoice. Highlight variances automatically and update accounting exports to include verified credits.

4. Fast-Follow / Targeted: Self-Serve Supplier Onboarding Portal * Problem solved: Satisfies Calder Group and similar multi-site accounts wanting their off-platform suppliers integrated. * Feature: A lightweight "Invite Supplier" flow where restaurants send an onboarding link directly to their existing vendors to set up a digital catalog.

Grades and run details

Decision model 88 · LLM judge 85
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly18%
  • passAddresses the actual decision44%
  • passRespects explicit constraints46%
  • failIdentifies material uncertainty93%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims57%
  • passProduces the required deliverable94%
  • passSees one account behind the top ticket99%
  • passCorrects the draft's claim88%
  • passWeights behaviour over opinion100%
  • passSays how many sources support each finding54%
  • passFrames findings for the decision100%
  • passReports what cuts against the plan100%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
36 s
Submitted
6 Oct 2026

Needs more than a quick edit11 of 12 checks passed

The output fails to show that delivery and invoice issues are spread across many accounts, a key comparison a PM would need to add by re-checking the ticket data.

Output

Synthesis for the CPO

Headline

The evidence points more strongly to a delivery-reconciliation problem than to a general marketplace need. Supplier coverage matters—especially to Calder Group—but the interviews suggest the bigger day-to-day pain is knowing what arrived, resolving discrepancies, and matching invoices and credits. Build toward that workflow next quarter; treat a broad marketplace as an unproven solution.

Findings and evidence

1. Receiving and invoice reconciliation are recurring operational pains. — Moderate evidence Eight of the ten interview excerpts raise delivery checking, discrepancies, invoice matching, credit notes, or the paperwork around them. Examples include paying for undelivered goods, learning about short deliveries only when the invoice arrives, and re-entering clipboard checks into Larder. Several customers describe financial impact or repeated manual work. The support export also contains tickets in both “Delivery didn’t match order” and “Invoice reconciliation.”

This is a consistent signal across the interviews, but ten excerpts cannot establish how common the problem is across Larder’s 1,140 accounts or which part of the workflow is most valuable to solve first.

2. Supplier availability is a genuine need, but the ticket count overstates its breadth. — Moderate evidence for demand; weak evidence for a marketplace “Add more suppliers” is the largest ticket category: 75 of 200 tickets. But 58 of those tickets—most of the category—come from one customer, Calder Group. The remaining 17 are from other accounts, so supplier coverage is not solely a Calder concern, but ticket volume is not evidence that most customers want a marketplace. Calder’s 14 sites and stated intent to move all ordering to Larder make its request strategically important; it is still one account.

The interviews echo that distinction: the pizzeria wants more choice and better prices, and Calder explicitly wants every supplier on-platform. But another multi-site operator says finding suppliers is not the problem, and the tapas bar says paperwork is what hurts day to day.

3. A marketplace is a proposed solution, not a validated priority. — Weak evidence The evidence supports specific supplier gaps and some appetite for choice, but does not show that customers broadly want a marketplace, what marketplace model they mean, or whether it would resolve their more frequent receiving and reconciliation problems. The draft’s conclusion goes beyond what these sources can establish.

What to build next quarter

Prioritize a focused delivery-to-invoice reconciliation improvement: make it easier to record what was received, flag shortages and substitutions against the order, and carry discrepancies through to invoice matching and credit-note tracking. Test the workflow with customers who describe these pains before committing to a larger build.

In parallel, follow up with Calder and a few other customers requesting suppliers. Assess targeted supplier onboarding or integrations for the specific suppliers they need; do not assume this requires a general-purpose marketplace. Use the quarter to measure how widespread each problem is across distinct accounts and whether improved reconciliation reduces manual work and unresolved discrepancies.

Grades and run details

Decision model 100 · LLM judge 85
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly62%
  • passAddresses the actual decision61%
  • passRespects explicit constraints77%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty45%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims78%
  • passProduces the required deliverable78%
  • passSees one account behind the top ticket67%
  • passCorrects the draft's claim53%
  • passWeights behaviour over opinion99%
  • passSays how many sources support each finding55%
  • passFrames findings for the decision90%
  • passReports what cuts against the plan100%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
21 s
Submitted
5 Oct 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 6

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyMixedRightRight
Opus 5.5 · Claude

Two factual numbers are wrong: ordering tickets are 30 not 31, and credits export tickets are 10 not 8.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

All factual claims about the current situation are directly supported by the supplied context or arithmetic from it.

GPT-6 Luna · API

All factual claims about the current situation are directly supported by the supplied interview excerpts or ticket data.

Addresses the actual decisionRightMixedRight
Opus 5.5 · Claude

Commits to building delivery check-in, treating Calder as an account project, and not building a marketplace, with conditions to revisit.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The output commits to a clear recommendation but does not state what result or condition would change that decision.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The output commits to a clear recommendation (prioritize delivery-to-invoice reconciliation, treat marketplace as unproven) and says to measure problem spread to inform future decisions.

Respects explicit constraintsMixedRightRight
Opus 5.5 · Claude

The output exceeds the 800-word limit (approximately 826 words).

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The output is a synthesis within 800 words, addressed to the CPO, covering main findings, evidence strength, and next-quarter implications.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The output is a synthesis under 800 words, includes main findings with evidence strength, and states what to build next quarter, all for the CPO.

Identifies material uncertaintyRightWrongRight
Opus 5.5 · Claude

Names specific unknowns (sample size, ticket bias, data quality, no revenue data) and how to resolve them.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The output does not name specific unknowns that could change the decision or say how they would be resolved.

GPT-6 Luna · API

It names unknowns (how common the problem is across all accounts, which part of the workflow is most valuable, what marketplace model) and says to test and measure to resolve them.

Produces the required deliverableMixedRightRight
Opus 5.5 · Claude

The synthesis is present but exceeds the 800-word limit, so it is not within the requested length.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The memo is complete, correctly formatted for the CPO, within the word limit, and actionable with light edits.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The synthesis is complete, within 800 words, addressed to the CPO, and actionable with findings, evidence strength, and a next-quarter plan.

Sees one account behind the top ticketRightRightMixed
Opus 5.5 · Claude

Clearly shows Calder Group accounts for 58 of 75 supplier tickets, while delivery/invoice issues are spread across many accounts.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The synthesis explicitly counts Calder Group's tickets (58 of 75) and contrasts the spread of delivery/invoice issues across many accounts.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The output counts Calder's tickets and notes the remaining 17 are from others, but it does not show that delivery and invoice issues are spread across many accounts, only that those categories exist in the export.

All got right 6

Avoids unsupported claimsRightRightRight
Opus 5.5 · Claude

Hypotheses and forecasts are labelled (e.g., 'untested', 'probably under-counted'), and confident claims are supported.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Interpretations are clearly tied to evidence, and no confident claims go beyond what the evidence establishes.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Interpretations are clearly tied to evidence, and no confident claim goes beyond what the supplied data establishes.

Corrects the draft's claimRightRightRight
Opus 5.5 · Claude

Corrects the draft by counting interviews: only 2 of 10 want a marketplace, and 8 describe delivery/invoice pain.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

It corrects the draft by showing only two interviews mention a marketplace and that most interviews describe delivery/invoice pain.

GPT-6 Luna · API

It corrects the draft by counting eight interviews on delivery/invoice pain versus two on marketplace, and shows the draft's headline rests on a minority of interviews.

Weights behaviour over opinionRightRightRight
Opus 5.5 · Claude

Weights concrete costs and observed behaviour (money lost, time spent) over stated wishes ('would love', 'I suppose').

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The output weights specific past instances (e.g., £600 loss, Sunday reconciliation) over stated wishes, and flags marketplace demand as weak.

GPT-6 Luna · API

The output flags the marketplace theme as 'weak evidence' and a 'proposed solution, not a validated priority,' while the delivery/invoice pains are backed by specific instances and financial impact.

Says how many sources support each findingRightRightRight
Opus 5.5 · Claude

Every finding is sized with numbers (8 of 10 interviews, 63 tickets, 58 from Calder, 17 from 17 accounts).

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Every finding is sized with numbers (8/10 interviewees, 58/75 tickets, 63 tickets across ~60 accounts).

GPT-6 Luna · API

Findings are sized: eight of ten interviews, 75 of 200 tickets, 58 from Calder, 17 from others; no finding is presented as universal without a count.

Frames findings for the decisionRightRightRight
Opus 5.5 · Claude

Each finding is framed as an opportunity and linked to the decision (build check-in, don't build marketplace, treat Calder as account project).

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

Findings are framed as opportunities (delivery check-in, reconciliation) and directly linked to the decision not to build a marketplace.

GPT-6 Luna · API

Each finding is linked to the decision: the reconciliation pain drives the build priority, the supplier concentration shapes the Calder follow-up, and the weak marketplace evidence justifies not building it.

Reports what cuts against the planRightRightRight
Opus 5.5 · Claude

Reports evidence against the marketplace plan: concentration in one account, interviews mostly about mismatch, café group's statement.

Gemini 3.8 Flash · API

The output reports evidence that cuts against the marketplace hypothesis, showing it is driven by one account and not the broader user base.

GPT-6 Luna · API

It reports that the top ticket category is driven by one account and that the marketplace is an unvalidated solution, directly challenging the draft's plan.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated. Where our PM checked the graders by hand, they agreed on 74% of 62 checks.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT95.595.82None
2GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI97.792.02None
3GPT-6 LunawithAPI93.284.02None
4Sonnet 5.5withAPI95.567.62None
5Haiku 5.5withAPI86.471.22None
6Opus 5.5withClaude86.463.82None
7Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI71.063.12None
8Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini69.347.42None

What you get for the cost

GPT-6.1 Sol · API scores within a point of GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT at a ninth of the cost.

Task score against relative cost for each setup. The table below has the same figures.50607080901001×3×10×30×100×Cost per output, relative to the cheapest setup (log scale) →↑ Task scoreGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT: task score 96, 194× the cheapest (1 of 2 outputs estimated)GPT-6.1 Sol · API: task score 95, 21× the cheapestGPT-6 Luna · API: task score 87, the cheapestSonnet 5.5 · API: task score 80, 62× the cheapestHaiku 5.5 · API: task score 77, 3.4× the cheapestOpus 5.5 · Claude: task score 72, 167× the cheapest (1 of 2 outputs estimated)Gemini 3.8 Flash · API: task score 66, 19× the cheapestGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini: task score 56, 6.5× the cheapest (1 of 2 outputs estimated)GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPTGPT-6.1 Sol · APIGPT-6 Luna · APISonnet 5.5 · APIHaiku 5.5 · APIOpus 5.5 · ClaudeGemini 3.8 Flash · APIGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini
Best valueNobody beats these on both score and costCost partly estimated (app runs with no usage meter)
Task score and relative cost by setup
SetupTask scoreRelative cost (cheapest = 1)
GPT-6 Luna · API871.0×
Haiku 5.5 · API773.4×
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini566.5× (partly estimated)
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API6619×
GPT-6.1 Sol · API9521×
Sonnet 5.5 · API8062×
Opus 5.5 · Claude72167× (partly estimated)
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT96194× (partly estimated)

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

About the task

The PM job

Turning a stack of call transcripts into what we actually learned.

Why it matters

Synthesis is where teams fool themselves. A model that smooths away dissent or turns one loud customer into a trend produces confident, wrong roadmaps.

What good looks like

  • Quotes evidence for each theme and counts sources honestly
  • Weights what customers did above what they say they'd do
  • Keeps important dissent visible
  • Labels hypotheses as hypotheses
  • Says what the research cannot tell us

Deliberately not measured

  • Transcript clean-up
  • Persona illustration
Capability tested

Faithful synthesis of qualitative research

The failure we’re looking for

Invents customer consensus or loses important dissent

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review