Usable with a quick edit11 of 13 checks passed
The output is a complete, evidence-backed memo that a PM could finalize with light edits, as all reasoning is clear and no fact-checking or structural rework is needed.
Output
To: CEO From: Head of Product Re: Alternative to a 30% January increase
Recommendation
Don't apply a flat 30%. Move pricing from seats with unlimited pages to a model that charges for pages. Self-serve keeps seats but adds an included page allowance and a per-page overage. Enterprise moves to a committed per-page rate at renewal. At current usage, this takes gross margin from 24% to about 53%.
Tom's increase would not get us to 41%. That figure assumes all contracts reprice in January, and only one enterprise contract renews then. Self-serve-only in January gives about 34%.
What the data says
- The margin problem is enterprise. Six contracts account for 71% of pages (19.4M of 27.4M) and 71% of serving cost ($23.2k of $32.9k a month). They pay $19.0k, so they lose $4.2k a month (−22%). Four of six are negative.
- Enterprise pays too little per page. Effective rates run $0.0007 to $0.0015 per page against a serving cost of $0.0012. Seat pricing lets page volume grow without any increase in what we charge. Northwind's pages tripled in a year and its bill didn't move.
- Self-serve is healthy. It runs at 60% margin. Startups are at 87%, and mid-market is at 40%, dragged down by heavy accounts. Q and P are negative.
- We are far below market. DocuLens lists at $0.012 per page up to 1M and $0.008 above, plus a $500 platform fee. At that list price, Northwind's 4.8M pages would cost about $43k a month, against our $3.2k. Enterprise discounts narrow this gap, but not by much.
Proposed model
- Self-serve: $99 per seat per month, including 25,000 pages per seat. $0.002 per page above that. Seats stay because they are simple and match Formwise. Our overage rate is one-fifth of Formwise's $0.01.
- Enterprise: a committed monthly page volume at $0.002 per page, with overage at the same rate. No seat fee. Offered on two-year terms with a price lock.
- Floor: $0.0017 per page. Anything below it needs CEO sign-off.
Because serving cost is falling about 10% a quarter, a locked rate becomes more profitable each quarter. If that holds, enterprise margin reaches about 60% within a year at current volume.
Effect by segment
Monthly run-rate at current usage, before churn, at $0.0012 per page.
| Segment | Accounts (seats / pages per month) | Today | Proposed | Revenue per month | Gross margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Startups (self-serve) | 50 (101 / 1.09M) | $99/seat, unlimited pages | $99/seat incl. 25k pages; $0.002 above | $10.0k → $10.1k (+1%) | 87% → 87% |
| Mid-market (self-serve) | 24 (142 / 6.97M) | $99/seat, unlimited pages | $99/seat incl. 25k pages; $0.002 above | $14.1k → $21.0k (+49%) | 40% → 60% |
| Enterprise | 6 (65 / 19.4M) | Negotiated per seat, unlimited pages | $0.002 per committed page, no seat fee | $19.0k → $38.7k (+104%) | −22% → 40% |
| Total | 80 | $43.1k → $69.8k (+62%) | 24% → 53% |
Gross margin dollars rise from $10.2k to $36.9k a month. Startups barely change because most use less than 25k pages per seat. Mid-market carries the most self-serve risk: a few heavy accounts see large increases, such as Q ($594 to $1,382) and T ($792 to $1,498).
Getting there
Self-serve. Announce in January and take effect February 1 with 30 days' notice. New sign-ups get the new model immediately. For existing heavy mid-market accounts, cap the increase at 50% for the first three months. Offer annual prepay as an option.
Enterprise, by renewal date. No contract is repriced mid-term.
- Copperfield (January 2027): $0.002 per page takes it from $2.4k to about $4.8k a month. This is the first test of the model.
- Northwind (February 2027): Its ask is "two years at the same rate." At the same dollar amount, the effective rate would fall to about $0.0007 per page while volume triples. Counter with a two-year term, a committed 4.8M pages a month, $0.0017 in year one, and $0.002 in year two. That is about $8.2k a month in year one. Trade the rate for term and commitment. If they refuse to go below $0.0017, let them walk. They lose us $2.6k a month today, and losing them would improve gross margin dollars.
- Arcadia (March 2027): It is evaluating a competitor and is the only enterprise account with positive margin ($528 a month). Offer $0.002, benchmark against ExtractIQ at their volume, and concede only down to the floor and only on a multi-year deal.
- Halden (June), Meridian (September), Brightwater (November): standard $0.002.
The price test
The test's B arm was $129 against $99, which is a 30% increase. That makes it the most relevant evidence we have, and it doesn't support the January increase.
- The result is inconclusive. Conversion was 5.0% against 4.8%. The 95% interval on the difference is roughly −1.7 to +2.1 points. That interval can't rule out losing a third of conversion. "Not significant" does not mean "no effect."
- The assignment looks broken. The arms received 1,240 and 870 visitors against a 50/50 design. That is a sample-ratio mismatch (chi-square ≈ 65). Until someone explains it, we can't trust either arm.
- Its scope is narrow. It ran two weeks over the holidays, measured new sign-ups only, and counted first payments only. It says nothing about existing customers, seat expansion, churn, or heavy page users.
We shouldn't cite it as cover. Rerun it properly: a six-week randomized 50/50 test of the new model on new sign-ups, plus a notice-based read on existing self-serve accounts.
Why not 30% across the board
- It doesn't fix enterprise. A 30% increase moves enterprise from −22% to about 6% margin. Even then, it can't be applied mid-term.
- Seats don't track cost. Serving cost is about $13 per seat for startups and about $480 per seat for Northwind. A per-seat increase raises both sides equally and leaves the mismatch in place.
- It taxes the wrong customers. Light users absorb the same percentage increase as heavy users, while the heavy users are the ones we under-recover on.
Risks
- Enterprise pushback. A roughly 2x jump at renewal is the real risk. Expect one or two losses. The two-year lock and staggered renewal calendar limit the damage.
- Cost decline stalls. If serving cost stops falling, the $0.0017 floor needs review each quarter.
- Usage shifts. Heavy self-serve users may trim usage to avoid overage. That is acceptable given the margin, but we should watch conversion closely.
Decisions requested
- Reject the flat 30% increase.
- Approve the self-serve model effective February 1, with a 90-day cap for heavy mid-market accounts.
- Approve the enterprise per-page rate card, with a $0.0017 floor and CEO sign-off required below it.
- Rerun the price test properly before any new-signup price change.
Grades and run details
Decision model 77 · LLM judge 100
Decision model checks
- failUses the supplied evidence correctly16%
- passAddresses the actual decision97%
- passRespects explicit constraints38%
- passIdentifies material uncertainty85%
- partialAvoids unsupported claims37%
- passProduces the required deliverable74%
- passFixes the value metric100%
- passDoesn't trust the price test100%
- passPlans the renewals100%
- passEach tier for a different buyer85%
- failGets the base of every number right59%
- partialPriced on willingness to pay34%
- passMoves existing customers fairly95%
Run
- Run
- #1
- API response time
- 1.9 min
- Submitted
- 8 Oct 2026