Tasks / Growth

Write a GTM plan

Can the model pick the customers who value the difference most, position against what they do today, and build a go-to-market that lasts beyond launch day?

Task type v1.1 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 16 graded outputs by 8 models. 50% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Positioned against the real alternative100% pass
    It names the real alternatives (accountant-run payroll with mistakes, owner spreadsheet with risk) and ties the message to confidence and accuracy that those alternatives lack.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Payroll, for the people who fear it
  2. Protects the self-serve engine100% pass
    Uses the 70% free-to-paid stat and product-qualified deal data to argue against capping the free plan, and keeps self-serve open.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Enterprise, without killing the engine
  3. Does the capacity sums100% pass
    Works out deals needed (69-80), qualified opportunities (134), and AE-years (8) with checkable arithmetic.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Enterprise, without killing the engine

Where it slips

  1. Avoids unsupported claims47% pass
    Presents the incorrect 'five of six no decision' figure as established fact, which is an unsupported claim about the current situation.
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · Enterprise, without killing the engine
  2. Uses the supplied evidence correctly52% pass
    The claim 'Five of our six losses on existing-user deals ended in no decision' is not supported by the data (4 no-decision, 2 Miro), so a statement about the current situation is invented.
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · Enterprise, without killing the engine
  3. Identifies material uncertainty73% pass
    The plan does not name specific unknowns that could change the decision, nor does it say how they would be resolved or what would trigger a pivot.
    Gemini 3.8 Flash · API · Payroll, for the people who fear it

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

  1. Positioned against the real alternative

    Does the plan name what the target customer does today without this product (including the status quo or doing nothing), and tie the message to the value that alternative lacks?

    Passes when Names the real alternative and the differentiated value against it, and picks the segment that cares most about that value.

  2. Sells against a pain the buyer feels

    Is the core message built on a pain or risk the target buyer already feels, with evidence from the material, rather than on generic upside like saving time?

    Passes when Leads with the pain the evidence shows buyers care about, and uses that evidence to choose the message.

  3. Diagnoses message or channel first

    Does the plan work out whether the problem is the message (people reach it but don't convert) or the channels (the right people never see it), and spend accordingly?

    Passes when Uses conversion and reach data to say which it is, and puts the effort there.

  4. Plans beyond launch week

    Does the plan say how demand keeps coming after launch, with the ongoing engine and what's measured over months, rather than treating launch day as the whole plan?

    Passes when Gives the ongoing motion after launch and the measures that show whether it's working over time.

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · and 2 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're the PM for Ledgerly Payroll, a new add-on for our accounting product, launching to existing customers on 3 November. Marketing has drafted the launch plan below. Write the go-to-market plan you'd run instead (or the changes you'd make to theirs), in no more than 900 words: who we go after first, what we say to them, through which channels, and how we'll know it's working over the following three months. The files are attached.

What the model was given5 items: About Ledgerly, marketing_launch_draft.md, customers_by_size_and_payroll_method.csv (penalty notices: share who told us they got a payroll penalty notice last year), beta_headline_test.csv (two versions of the in-app payroll page, shown at random to beta customers), customer_calls.md
About LedgerlyAccounting software for small businesses: invoicing, bank feeds, bookkeeping. 8,000 paying customers. Payroll is a new add-on at $6 per employee per month.
marketing_launch_draft.md7 lines · Download
# Draft launch plan (Head of Marketing)

- Launch day 3 November: press release announcing Ledgerly as "the first Financial Operating System for small business".
- Paid social and search ads to new prospects: $60,000 in November.
- In-app banner to all 8,000 customers: "Run payroll in minutes".
- Webinar in launch week.
- Success measure: press mentions and sign-ups in launch week.
customers_by_size_and_payroll_method.csv (penalty notices: share who told us they got a payroll penalty notice last year)employees,current_payroll,customers,penalty_notices_last_year_pct 1-4,Owner does it in a spreadsheet,3140,4 1-4,Accountant runs it,1020,6 5-25,Owner does it in a spreadsheet,690,19 5-25,Accountant runs it,1480,23 5-25,Another payroll tool,1210,7 26-50,Another payroll tool,460,5
beta_headline_test.csv (two versions of the in-app payroll page, shown at random to beta customers)headline,landing_page_visits,started_setup,ran_first_payroll "Run payroll in minutes, right where you do your books",4210,92,38 Never get a payroll penalty again,4160,268,117
customer_calls.md10 lines · Download
# Customer calls about payroll (excerpts, September)

1. Bakery, 12 staff: "My accountant does payroll. Last spring they filed late and I got a $1,400 penalty. I don't know what I'm paying them for."
2. Plumbing firm, 18 staff: "Time isn't the issue. I'm scared of getting it wrong. The tax office letter was the worst week of my year."
3. Design studio, 3 staff: "It's me and two freelancers. A spreadsheet's fine."
4. Café group, 22 staff: "We use another tool, it's OK. Switching sounds like a nightmare mid-year."
5. Physio clinic, 9 staff: "I'd move tomorrow if it meant one less thing that can go wrong with the tax office."
…
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Picks customers with 5 to 25 employees whose accountant runs payroll (1,480 customers, 23% had a penalty notice) and those doing it in a spreadsheet (690, 19%), not the smallest businesses (happy with a spreadsheet) or those on another payroll tool (switching mid-year is the barrier). Builds the message on fear of penalties and errors, not time: in the beta, 'Never get a payroll penalty again' got about three times as many setups as 'Run payroll in minutes' (268 against 92 from similar traffic, 6.4% against 2.2%) and more first payrolls (117 against 38), and the calls say the same. Reads this as a message problem, not a channel problem: the existing customer base already sees the page, so fix the message and reach existing customers in-app and through their accountants before spending $60,000 on ads to strangers. Drops the 'Financial Operating System' category claim. Plans beyond launch week: prompts around payroll and tax deadlines, accountant referrals, and monthly measures such as payroll attach in the target segment, first payrolls run, and penalties avoided.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Keeps 'Run payroll in minutes' as the lead message despite the headline test
Task

Mid-level · v1.0

The outputs

8 setups answered this brief.

Usable with a quick edit12 of 12 checks passed

The plan is evidence-based, actionable, and covers all required elements; a PM could execute it with only minor wording adjustments.

Output

Ledgerly Payroll go-to-market plan | 3 November–31 January

1. Start with customers who have the clearest problem

First priority: existing customers with 5–25 employees who currently run payroll themselves or rely on an accountant. That’s 2,170 customers: 690 spreadsheet users and 1,480 whose accountant runs payroll. In these groups, 19% and 23%, respectively, said they received a payroll penalty notice last year. Treat that as a signal of pain—not proof that Ledgerly would prevent penalties.

Lead with accountant-run customers who want more visibility and control, while making clear Ledgerly isn’t accusing their accountant of poor work. Follow with spreadsheet users in the same size band, for whom a simpler alternative to manual payroll may appeal.

Defer broader prospecting. Among customers with 1–4 employees, reported penalty notices are lower (4–6%); several calls also suggest some are content with free spreadsheets. Customers already using another payroll tool reported fewer notices (7% for 5–25 employees), and one call highlighted switching friction. Test those groups later, after validating onboarding and migration. Don’t prioritize 26–50-employee customers until we know the product and support experience fit their needs.

2. Say what we can support—not what we can’t promise

The beta headline test is a useful directional signal:

  • “Never get a payroll penalty again”: 268/4,160 visitors started setup (6.4%); 117 ran first payroll (2.8%).
  • “Run payroll in minutes…”: 92/4,210 started (2.2%); 38 ran first payroll (0.9%).

The penalty-focused version performed better, but don’t use “Never get a payroll penalty again” unless Ledgerly can substantiate that guarantee. Instead test responsible variants such as:

  • “More confidence in payroll, alongside your books.”
  • “Take control of payroll and reduce the risk of costly mistakes.”

Be explicit that payroll is $6 per employee per month. Emphasize control, confidence and working in the same accounting product—not guaranteed outcomes or unverified features. Tailor the message: “Keep a closer eye on payroll” for accountant-run customers; “Move beyond the spreadsheet” for owner-run customers.

3. Use customer channels before buying reach

  • Before launch: Segment the 2,170 priority customers and invite a small cohort to try setup. Interview users who start but don’t finish; check readiness, support capacity and any limitations before broad promotion.
  • Launch, 3 November: Send segmented email to the priority cohort and show a targeted in-app message when those customers use Ledgerly. Link directly to a clear product and pricing page, not a generic announcement. Offer a live, practical webinar on setup and common payroll concerns, with time for questions.
  • During November–January: Follow up based on behavior: a setup reminder for visitors who don’t start, and personal onboarding or support for customers who start but don’t run payroll. Invite accountant-run customers to involve their accountant where appropriate. Expand in-app promotion to other segments only after reviewing early results.
  • Earned media: A factual product announcement is fine, but don’t make press mentions the launch objective. Skip the $60,000 broad paid campaign to new prospects until existing-customer activation and retention are proven.

4. Measure adoption and outcomes for three months

Track weekly by customer segment and by funnel step: eligible → reached → product-page visit → setup started → setup completed → first payroll run → repeat payroll run. Report both counts and conversion rates; compare messages with a randomized test where possible.

Use the beta as a benchmark, not a forecast. A reasonable initial goal is to beat its stronger variant’s 6.4% visit-to-setup-start and 2.8% visit-to-first-payroll rates in the priority cohort. Also set a three-month target for repeat payroll runs among first-time users, and review setup abandonment to find where customers get stuck.

Pair adoption metrics with guardrails: payroll-related support contacts, failed or corrected runs, cancellations/refunds, and customer feedback about confidence and accuracy. Review weekly with Product, Support and Marketing. If activation is weak, fix onboarding or clarify the offer before adding spend. If customers run payroll but don’t repeat, investigate reliability, fit and switching friction before expanding the campaign.

Grades and run details

Decision model 100 · LLM judge 100
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly77%
  • passAddresses the actual decision93%
  • passRespects explicit constraints66%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty83%
  • passAvoids unsupported claims63%
  • passProduces the required deliverable82%
  • passPicks the segment with the pain100%
  • passUses the headline test77%
  • passPositioned against the real alternative98%
  • passSells against a pain the buyer feels96%
  • passDiagnoses message or channel first99%
  • passPlans beyond launch week100%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
17 s
Submitted
5 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit10 of 12 checks passed

The plan is sound and evidence-based; a PM could trim ~50 words to meet the length limit without re-checking facts or redoing reasoning.

Output

Ledgerly Payroll: Go-to-Market Plan (launch 3 November)

The short version

Payroll is an add-on for people who already use Ledgerly, so the launch should be aimed at our existing customers. The draft plan spends most of its effort on new prospects and press, and it uses the headline that lost our own test. I'd make three changes:

  • Focus on the customers with the most painful problem.
  • Lead with the message that tripled conversion in beta.
  • Measure customers actually running payroll and still running it, not launch-week buzz.

1. Who we go after first

Primary: customers with 5–25 employees who run payroll in a spreadsheet or through their accountant. That's 2,170 customers.

  • They have the highest penalty rates: 19% for spreadsheet users and 23% for accountant-run payroll, against 4–7% everywhere else.
  • They have enough employees to matter. At roughly 12 staff, a customer is worth about $72 a month.
  • The calls describe this group exactly: the bakery's $1,400 penalty, the plumber's "scared of getting it wrong", the physio who'd "move tomorrow", and the landscaper paying $180 a month for mistakes.

Second wave: customers with 5–25 employees on another payroll tool (1,210), plus the 460 with 26–50 employees. They're fairly satisfied (5–7% penalties), and switching mid-year "sounds like a nightmare." We should approach them ahead of the next tax-year start, with a migration offer. Until then we just let them know payroll exists.

Not a focus: customers with 1–4 employees (4,160). They have low pain ("a spreadsheet's fine", "annoying, but free") and low revenue per customer. They can find payroll in the product without us pushing it.

2. What we say

The lead message is penalties and accuracy, not speed. In the beta, "Never get a payroll penalty again" won clearly over the speed headline:

Speed headlinePenalty headline
Visits that started setup2.2%6.4%
Visits that ran a first payroll0.9%2.8%

That's about three times as many customers running payroll, on comparable traffic of around 4,200 visits each. "Run payroll in minutes" is the losing message, and the calls explain why: "Time isn't the issue."

One important caveat: Legal must approve the penalty claim before we use it. "Never get a penalty again" is a promise. Penalties can still happen if a customer enters bad data or doesn't fund payroll on time. We have two options:

  • Back the promise: for example, "If a filing we're responsible for is late or wrong, we pay the penalty." This would be the strongest version, if Finance and Legal agree.
  • Soften the wording: for example, "Payroll filed correctly and on time, automatically." We would then re-test this against the winning headline in the first two weeks, because softening may reduce its effect.

Supporting points: - For accountant-run customers: "$6 per employee. For 6 staff, that's $36 a month, not $180." - For everyone: it already lives inside your books, so there's no re-entering data. This is a supporting point, not the headline.

Drop "the first Financial Operating System for small business." No customer has asked for this, it's hard to substantiate, and it says nothing about payroll.

3. Channels

ChannelWhat we do
In-app (targeted)Show the penalty-led payroll page to the 2,170 primary customers only, not a banner to all 8,000.
EmailA three-email sequence to the primary segment: the penalty story, the price comparison, and a booked setup slot.
Assisted setupOffer a free 30-minute call to get the first payroll running. In beta, more than half of customers who started setup never ran payroll, so this is our biggest point of loss.
WebinarMake it "How to avoid payroll penalties" with a live setup clinic. Invite the primary segment, and repeat it monthly rather than once in launch week.
AccountantsThis is a real risk. Some accountants will lose payroll fees, and they influence whether customers stay with Ledgerly at all. We should give accountants a read-only payroll view and position them as reviewers, so they aren't pushed out. Customer Success should monitor whether the core product loses customers in accountant-managed accounts.
PressKeep a modest announcement focused on payroll for small businesses, ideally with a beta customer's story. Press is not a success measure.

Budget: move the $60,000 away from paid ads to new prospects. New prospects would have to buy accounting before they can buy payroll, so that spend works against our focus. I'd use roughly: - $25,000 for assisted setup staffing and onboarding. - $5,000 for content and the webinar. - The rest held back until December, then released only if setup completion proves to be the bottleneck.

4. How we'll know it's working (November to January)

The main goal is customers who have run at least two payroll cycles. Signing up isn't enough; running payroll repeatedly is what matters.

MetricTarget by end of January
Primary-segment customers running payroll (2+ cycles)220, about 10% of the segment. That's roughly 2,600 employees and about $16,000 in monthly recurring revenue.
Setup started ÷ payroll page visits, primary segment6% or higher (at least matching the beta)
First payroll run ÷ setup startedUp from 44% to 60% or higher, through assisted setup
Time from setup start to first payrollMedian under 7 days
Penalties caused by LedgerlyZero. Every incident gets a root-cause review.
Customers who stop using payroll after their first runUnder 10%
Accounting product cancellations in the primary segmentNo increase compared with before launch

Check-ins: - Weekly: track the funnel by segment. - Week 2: read the headline re-test, if Legal changes the claim. - End of December: go/no-go on the held-back budget and on starting the switching campaign for customers on other payroll tools.

Caveats

  • The beta participants opted in, so real launch conversion will probably be lower than the beta numbers.
  • Penalty rates are self-reported.
  • The 220 target is a starting estimate, not a forecast. We should revise it after the first month of real data.

Grades and run details

Decision model 96 · LLM judge 85
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly24%
  • passAddresses the actual decision91%
  • passRespects explicit constraints42%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty96%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims38%
  • passProduces the required deliverable91%
  • passPicks the segment with the pain100%
  • passUses the headline test100%
  • passPositioned against the real alternative100%
  • passSells against a pain the buyer feels100%
  • passDiagnoses message or channel first100%
  • passPlans beyond launch week100%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
39 s
Submitted
5 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit10 of 12 checks passed

The plan is detailed and actionable; the unsupported claims are minor cautions that a PM could remove or rephrase without redoing the reasoning or re-checking evidence.

Output

Ledgerly Payroll: existing-customer launch plan

3 November–2 February

1. Start with customers who fear mistakes—not everyone who dislikes admin

Prioritise the 2,170 existing customers with 5–25 employees whose payroll is run in spreadsheets or by an accountant. They represent 27% of our customer base:

  • 690 spreadsheet users: 19% reported a payroll penalty notice last year. Start here: they control the buying decision and have no incumbent software to replace.
  • 1,480 accountant-run customers: 23% reported a penalty notice. Approach alongside the first group, but qualify who controls payroll and whether the accountant should participate.

These penalty rates are much higher than the 4–7% reported by the other segments. Customer interviews reinforce the problem: owners want confidence that payroll is right, not merely faster.

Deprioritise the 4,160 customers with 1–4 employees: several see spreadsheets as sufficient, and willingness to pay looks weaker. Also defer broad outreach to the 1,670 customers using another payroll tool: their reported penalty rates are lower, and switching creates friction.

Within the priority segments, invite customers with known concerns or upcoming payroll runs first. Don’t assume a segment-level penalty rate means any particular customer received a notice.

2. Sell confidence and control, without promising immunity

Replace “the first Financial Operating System” and the generic speed headline with:

> Feel more confident about payroll, right alongside your books. > Ledgerly Payroll costs $6 per employee per month. See whether it fits your business and get help setting up your first payroll.

Use separate supporting messages:

  • Spreadsheet users: “Move beyond manual payroll spreadsheets. See how Ledgerly Payroll works before your next pay run.”
  • Accountant-run customers: “Get a clearer view of payroll—and decide how you and your accountant will manage it.”

The beta provides strong directional evidence for this positioning. The penalty headline generated first-payroll completions equal to 2.8% of page visits versus 0.9% for the speed headline—roughly three times higher. Setup starts also increased, while setup-to-first-payroll conversion remained similar, around 42–44%. The message attracts interest; onboarding still needs work.

However, do not ship “Never get a payroll penalty again.” It is an absolute guarantee the evidence cannot support. Test truthful reassurance against the speed message, with legal review.

Before launch, confirm exactly which calculations, checks, deadlines and filing responsibilities Ledgerly supports. Demonstrate only verified capabilities and clearly explain customer responsibilities. For price context, a 10-person business pays $60/month; don’t claim universal savings versus accountants.

3. Use owned channels and assisted onboarding before acquisition spend

Replace the $60,000 November prospecting campaign with a focused existing-customer rollout. Hold that spend until activation, retention and support economics justify expansion.

Before 3 November - Prepare segment-specific emails, in-app pages, eligibility guidance and a clear setup checklist. - Equip support with payroll-specific escalation procedures and capacity for first-run assistance. - Instrument the journey from invitation through paid, successful payroll. - Validate readiness. If a critical workflow is unsafe, narrow launch eligibility rather than market around it.

November: activate the first cohort - Send targeted email and in-app invitations to the priority customers, paced to support capacity—not one banner to all 8,000. - Offer a practical demonstration and bookable setup sessions. Schedule follow-ups around each customer’s next payroll date. - Use the launch-week webinar to show setup, responsibilities and a complete payroll workflow, not deliver a corporate announcement. - Where customers agree, involve their accountants. Position them as collaborators, not the cause of every payroll problem.

December: remove friction - Contact customers who started but stalled; diagnose migration, employee-data, confidence and accountant-approval barriers. - Turn recurring questions into onboarding improvements and help content. - Publish customer proof only with permission and substantiated outcomes.

January–2 February: expand selectively - Broaden outreach once repeat usage and operational quality are sound. - Test customers considering a switch from another tool, with explicit migration guidance. - Consider a small paid acquisition experiment only after establishing acceptable acquisition cost and payback.

4. Measure paid adoption, repeat use and trust—not launch noise

Set these as initial planning targets, not forecasts; recalibrate after November’s first cohort:

  • By 2 February: 217 priority customers—10% of the target segment—have completed a successful payroll and become paying add-on customers.
  • Repeat use: at least 80% of activated customers complete their next scheduled payroll; separately track third-run retention where enough time has elapsed.
  • Commercial performance: report actual payroll MRR, paid employees, cancellations and contribution after onboarding/support costs. Customer count alone does not establish revenue.

Review weekly by segment and channel: invitations delivered, qualified visits, setup starts, setup completion, successful first payroll, paid conversion, time to activation and support effort. Use unique-customer denominators, not just page visits.

Run a controlled headline test and, where feasible, stagger outreach with a holdout to measure incremental adoption.

Track failed runs, product-attributable calculation or filing incidents, and customer confidence after first and repeat runs. Investigate every serious incident; pause the affected rollout if reliability is compromised.

The launch succeeds when customers repeatedly pay staff correctly and keep paying for Ledgerly—not when they read a press release.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • The beta provides strong directional evidence for this positioning
  • It is an absolute guarantee the evidence cannot support

Grades and run details

Decision model 88 · LLM judge 85
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly55%
  • passAddresses the actual decision91%
  • passRespects explicit constraints46%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty83%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims33%
  • passProduces the required deliverable78%
  • passPicks the segment with the pain100%
  • passUses the headline test37%
  • passPositioned against the real alternative96%
  • passSells against a pain the buyer feels83%
  • passDiagnoses message or channel first100%
  • passPlans beyond launch week100%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
40 s
Submitted
5 Oct 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 4

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyRightRightWrong
GPT-6 Luna · API

All factual claims about the current situation are directly supported by the supplied data or arithmetic.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

All statements about the current situation are directly supported by the brief or supplied context.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

The output claims the beta provides strong directional evidence and that the evidence cannot support an absolute guarantee; neither is a fact from the brief or arithmetic, so not every statement about the current situation is supported.

Respects explicit constraintsRightMixedRight
GPT-6 Luna · API

The plan stays under 900 words, does not lead with 'save time', and avoids paid ads to new prospects as the main channel.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The output is approximately 952 words, exceeding the 900-word limit.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

The output is a go-to-market plan within 900 words, respecting the requested form and length.

Avoids unsupported claimsRightRightWrong
GPT-6 Luna · API

Interpretations like 'want more visibility' are tied to call evidence and not presented as established fact; hypotheses are hedged.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Hypotheses and forecasts are labelled as such (e.g., 'probably be lower', 'starting estimate, not a forecast').

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Presents the claim that the evidence cannot support an absolute guarantee as a fact, and the beta as strong directional evidence, without labelling them as interpretations.

Produces the required deliverableRightMixedRight
GPT-6 Luna · API

The output is a complete go-to-market plan with segment, message, channels, and three-month measures, within the word limit.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The plan is present and complete but exceeds the 900-word limit, so it is not fully within the requested length.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Delivers a complete, actionable go-to-market plan for the PM, within the word limit.

All got right 8

Addresses the actual decisionRightRightRight
GPT-6 Luna · API

The output commits to a clear primary segment, message, channels, and measures, and states conditions for expanding later.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Commits early to a primary segment, message, and channels, and states conditions that would change the call (legal approval, re-test, go/no-go).

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Commits early to a primary segment (5-25 employees, spreadsheet/accountant-run) and says what would change the call (reliability issues, activation economics).

Identifies material uncertaintyRightRightRight
GPT-6 Luna · API

It identifies that the penalty message needs substantiation, treats the beta as directional, and specifies how weak activation or repeat usage would change the approach.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Names specific unknowns (legal risk, beta opt-in bias, self-reported data) and how they would be resolved or change the plan.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Names unknowns (exact payroll capabilities, legal review of guarantee, activation economics) and says how they would be resolved or would change the plan.

Picks the segment with the painRightRightRight
GPT-6 Luna · API

It targets 5–25 employee customers with accountant-run or spreadsheet payroll, cites penalty rates, and explains why smaller and tool-using segments are deferred.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Targets 5–25 employee customers using spreadsheet or accountant, with numbers and penalty rates, and explains why smaller and tool-using segments come later.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Targets 5-25 employees with spreadsheet or accountant-run payroll, uses the numbers and penalty rates, and explains why smaller businesses and tool users are deprioritised.

Uses the headline testRightRightRight
GPT-6 Luna · API

It cites the beta test results and builds the message on penalty and accuracy concerns, even while avoiding the unsubstantiated guarantee.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Cites the beta test results and builds the message on penalties and accuracy.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Cites the beta test's 2.8% vs 0.9% first-payroll rates and builds the message on penalties and accuracy.

Positioned against the real alternativeRightRightRight
GPT-6 Luna · API

It names the real alternatives (accountant, spreadsheet, another tool) and ties the message to confidence and reduced risk that those alternatives lack.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Names the real alternatives (spreadsheet, accountant, another tool) and ties the message to penalty risk and cost savings.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Names the real alternatives (spreadsheet, accountant) and ties the message to confidence and accuracy they lack.

Sells against a pain the buyer feelsRightRightRight
GPT-6 Luna · API

The core message leads with penalty fear and accuracy, supported by call quotes and the beta test, not generic time-saving.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Leads with the pain of penalties and errors, supported by calls and beta data, not generic time-saving.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Leads with fear of mistakes and penalties, using the customer calls and penalty data, not generic time-saving.

Diagnoses message or channel firstRightRightRight
GPT-6 Luna · API

It uses conversion data to diagnose that message matters more than reach, and focuses on in-app and email to existing customers before buying ads.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Diagnoses a message problem (losing headline, existing customers already see the page) and shifts budget from new-prospect ads to in-app, email, and assisted setup.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Uses the beta conversion data to diagnose a message problem and shifts spend to owned channels and message improvement before paid acquisition.

Plans beyond launch weekRightRightRight
GPT-6 Luna · API

The plan includes ongoing follow-up, behavior-based nudges, and three-month funnel and guardrail metrics beyond launch week.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Plans ongoing monthly webinars, three-month metrics, weekly check-ins, and a December go/no-go, not just launch week.

GPT-6.1 Sol · API

Plans December friction removal, January expansion, and measures repeat use, retention, and MRR over three months.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT100.0100.02None
2Opus 5.5withClaude96.085.22None
3GPT-6 LunawithAPI94.289.32None
4GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI93.878.02None
5Sonnet 5.5withAPI98.177.72None
6Haiku 5.5withAPI94.277.72None
7Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI73.981.92None
8Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini74.263.52None

What you get for the cost

No setup scores within 5 points of the leader at half its cost or less here, so the leader is also the best value.

Task score against relative cost for each setup. The table below has the same figures.607080901001×3×10×30×100×Cost per output, relative to the cheapest setup (log scale) →↑ Task scoreGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT: task score 100, 81× the cheapestOpus 5.5 · Claude: task score 91, 75× the cheapestGPT-6 Luna · API: task score 90, the cheapestGPT-6.1 Sol · API: task score 84, 16× the cheapestSonnet 5.5 · API: task score 84, 46× the cheapestHaiku 5.5 · API: task score 82, 3.3× the cheapestGemini 3.8 Flash · API: task score 77, 11× the cheapestGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini: task score 68, 3.5× the cheapestGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPTOpus 5.5 · ClaudeGPT-6 Luna · APIGPT-6.1 Sol · APISonnet 5.5 · APIHaiku 5.5 · APIGemini 3.8 Flash · APIGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini
Nobody beats these on both score and cost
Task score and relative cost by setup
SetupTask scoreRelative cost (cheapest = 1)
GPT-6 Luna · API901.0×
Haiku 5.5 · API823.3×
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini683.5×
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API7711×
GPT-6.1 Sol · API8416×
Sonnet 5.5 · API8446×
Opus 5.5 · Claude9175×
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT10081×

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

About the task

The PM job

Taking a product or add-on to market with marketing and sales.

Why it matters

Launch plans fail by trying to reach everyone, by selling upside nobody feels, and by treating launch day as the whole plan.

What good looks like

  • One primary segment: those who value the difference most
  • Positions against what customers do today
  • Sells against a pain the buyer feels, with evidence
  • Diagnoses whether the problem is the message or the channel
  • Plans beyond launch week

Deliberately not measured

  • Creative copywriting quality
Capability tested

Go-to-market judgement

The failure we’re looking for

Every channel, every segment, and nothing after launch day

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review