Tasks / Growth

Write a GTM plan

Can the model pick the customers who value the difference most, position against what they do today, and build a go-to-market that lasts beyond launch day?

Task type v1.1 · 2 tasksLast changed 6 Oct 2026 · ChangelogDifficulty

What AI gets right here, and what you’ll still have to catch

From 18 graded outputs by 9 models. 44% were usable with at most a quick edit.

Reliably right

  1. Positioned against the real alternative100% pass
    Names Miro, photos/slides, and doing nothing as alternatives, and ties the message to real-time tidy diagramming and starting without IT.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Enterprise, without killing the engine
  2. Sells against a pain the buyer feels100% pass
    The message addresses the governance and control pain that IT buyers feel when teams adopt tools without oversight, supported by SSO requests and security-page visits in the data.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Enterprise, without killing the engine
  3. Protects the self-serve engine100% pass
    Uses the 70% free-to-paid stat and product-qualified deal data to argue against capping the free plan, and keeps self-serve open.
    GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT · Enterprise, without killing the engine

Where it slips

  1. Uses the supplied evidence correctly28% pass
    The claim 'Five of our six losses on existing-user deals ended in no decision' is not supported by the data (4 no-decision, 2 Miro), so a statement about the current situation is invented.
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · Enterprise, without killing the engine
  2. Avoids unsupported claims39% pass
    Presents the incorrect 'five of six no decision' figure as established fact, which is an unsupported claim about the current situation.
    Opus 5.5 · Claude · Enterprise, without killing the engine
  3. Follows the deals data67% pass
    Although it compares by source, the computed product-qualified ACV and sales cycle are wrong, so it does not correctly follow the deals data.
    GPT-6.1 Sol · API · Enterprise, without killing the engine

How it’s graded

Each check is built on how world-class product and growth leaders do this work, as they’ve described it on Lenny’s Podcast, and names the leader it comes from.

  1. Positioned against the real alternative

    Does the plan name what the target customer does today without this product (including the status quo or doing nothing), and tie the message to the value that alternative lacks?

    Passes when Names the real alternative and the differentiated value against it, and picks the segment that cares most about that value.

  2. Sells against a pain the buyer feels

    Is the core message built on a pain or risk the target buyer already feels, with evidence from the material, rather than on generic upside like saving time?

    Passes when Leads with the pain the evidence shows buyers care about, and uses that evidence to choose the message.

  3. Diagnoses message or channel first

    Does the plan work out whether the problem is the message (people reach it but don't convert) or the channels (the right people never see it), and spend accordingly?

    Passes when Uses conversion and reach data to say which it is, and puts the effort there.

  4. Plans beyond launch week

    Does the plan say how demand keeps coming after launch, with the ongoing engine and what's measured over months, rather than treating launch day as the whole plan?

    Passes when Gives the ongoing motion after launch and the measures that show whether it's working over time.

Plus our standard checks

Uses the supplied evidence correctly · Addresses the actual decision · Respects explicit constraints · Identifies material uncertainty · Avoids unsupported claims · Produces the required deliverable · and 2 written for each task, which you’ll see in the tasks below.

The tasks

Read the brief, then compare up to three outputs, each with the LLM judge’s verdict on every check. Highlights mark what a PM had to fix.

The brief

You're the PM for Ledgerly Payroll, a new add-on for our accounting product, launching to existing customers on 3 November. Marketing has drafted the launch plan below. Write the go-to-market plan you'd run instead (or the changes you'd make to theirs), in no more than 900 words: who we go after first, what we say to them, through which channels, and how we'll know it's working over the following three months. The files are attached.

What the model was given5 items: About Ledgerly, marketing_launch_draft.md, customers_by_size_and_payroll_method.csv (penalty notices: share who told us they got a payroll penalty notice last year), beta_headline_test.csv (two versions of the in-app payroll page, shown at random to beta customers), customer_calls.md
About LedgerlyAccounting software for small businesses: invoicing, bank feeds, bookkeeping. 8,000 paying customers. Payroll is a new add-on at $6 per employee per month.
marketing_launch_draft.md7 lines · Download
# Draft launch plan (Head of Marketing)

- Launch day 3 November: press release announcing Ledgerly as "the first Financial Operating System for small business".
- Paid social and search ads to new prospects: $60,000 in November.
- In-app banner to all 8,000 customers: "Run payroll in minutes".
- Webinar in launch week.
- Success measure: press mentions and sign-ups in launch week.
customers_by_size_and_payroll_method.csv (penalty notices: share who told us they got a payroll penalty notice last year)employees,current_payroll,customers,penalty_notices_last_year_pct 1-4,Owner does it in a spreadsheet,3140,4 1-4,Accountant runs it,1020,6 5-25,Owner does it in a spreadsheet,690,19 5-25,Accountant runs it,1480,23 5-25,Another payroll tool,1210,7 26-50,Another payroll tool,460,5
beta_headline_test.csv (two versions of the in-app payroll page, shown at random to beta customers)headline,landing_page_visits,started_setup,ran_first_payroll "Run payroll in minutes, right where you do your books",4210,92,38 Never get a payroll penalty again,4160,268,117
customer_calls.md10 lines · Download
# Customer calls about payroll (excerpts, September)

1. Bakery, 12 staff: "My accountant does payroll. Last spring they filed late and I got a $1,400 penalty. I don't know what I'm paying them for."
2. Plumbing firm, 18 staff: "Time isn't the issue. I'm scared of getting it wrong. The tax office letter was the worst week of my year."
3. Design studio, 3 staff: "It's me and two freelancers. A spreadsheet's fine."
4. Café group, 22 staff: "We use another tool, it's OK. Switching sounds like a nightmare mid-year."
5. Physio clinic, 9 staff: "I'd move tomorrow if it meant one less thing that can go wrong with the tax office."
…
What a strong answer doesThe answer key the graders mark against

Picks customers with 5 to 25 employees whose accountant runs payroll (1,480 customers, 23% had a penalty notice) and those doing it in a spreadsheet (690, 19%), not the smallest businesses (happy with a spreadsheet) or those on another payroll tool (switching mid-year is the barrier). Builds the message on fear of penalties and errors, not time: in the beta, 'Never get a payroll penalty again' got about three times as many setups as 'Run payroll in minutes' (268 against 92 from similar traffic, 6.4% against 2.2%) and more first payrolls (117 against 38), and the calls say the same. Reads this as a message problem, not a channel problem: the existing customer base already sees the page, so fix the message and reach existing customers in-app and through their accountants before spending $60,000 on ads to strangers. Drops the 'Financial Operating System' category claim. Plans beyond launch week: prompts around payroll and tax deadlines, accountant referrals, and monthly measures such as payroll attach in the target segment, first payrolls run, and penalties avoided.

Critical failures (cap the score at 40)
  • Keeps 'Run payroll in minutes' as the lead message despite the headline test
Task

Mid-level · v1.1

The outputs

9 setups answered this brief.

Needs more than a quick edit9 of 12 checks passed

The unsupported claim about January 1 switching ease would require the PM to verify tax-year rules before acting on the timing plan.

Output

Ledgerly Payroll: Revised GTM Plan (Nov 2023 – Jan 2024)

Why We Need to Pivot from the Draft Plan

Our mandate is launching an add-on to existing customers, yet the draft plan treats this like a net-new customer acquisition campaign. Based on our customer research and beta data, we need to make four critical changes:

  1. Cut the $60k ad spend and press release: Spending $60k on cold prospects when we have 8,000 warm customers is inefficient, and "Financial Operating System" is industry jargon that doesn't resonate with SMBs. Let’s reallocate that budget to customer onboarding and switching incentives.
  2. Stop selling speed; start selling accuracy: Our beta test proved that "Run payroll in minutes" converts poorly (0.9% visit-to-payroll). Customers aren’t worried about time; they are terrified of tax office penalties. "Never get a payroll penalty again" tripled our conversion rate to 2.8%.
  3. Segment the audience: Half of our customers have 1–4 employees, rarely get penalties, and are happy using free spreadsheets. Blasting all 8,000 customers equally will create noise and yield low-value accounts.
  4. Align timing with the tax calendar: Launching in November hits the "mid-year switching nightmare" objection. However, January 1 is the Clean-Slate Window—the easiest time of year to switch payroll providers because year-to-date tax balances reset. November should be about selling and onboarding for a January 1 first payroll run, alongside immediate switching for those in high pain.

---

1. Who We Go After First (Target Segments)

At $6/employee/month, our revenue concentrates in the 5–25+ employee range. We will prioritize based on pain (penalty rates) and LTV:

  • Tier 1 (Primary Target): 5–25 Employees on Accountants (1,480 customers) or Spreadsheets (690 customers).
  • Why: Highest pain and highest willingness to switch. 23% of the accountant group and 19% of the spreadsheet group got hit with a penalty last year. Furthermore, accountants charge ~$150–$200/mo for this; at $6/employee, a 12-person firm pays us just $72/mo. We are cheaper and more reliable.
  • Tier 2 (The January 1 Play): 5–50 Employees on Another Payroll Tool (1,670 customers).
  • Why: High revenue potential ($30–$300/mo per account), low current penalty pain (5–7%), and high friction to switch mid-year. We won't ask them to switch in November; we will book them now to switch for Q1 (Jan 1).
  • Tier 3 (Deprioritized / Self-Serve): 1–4 Employees (4,160 customers).
  • Why: Low pain (4–6% penalty rate), high price sensitivity ("spreadsheets are free"), and low ARPU ($6–$24/mo). They will see passive in-app navigation, not active campaigns.

---

2. What We Say (Messaging & Positioning)

Core Value Proposition: Never get a payroll penalty again. Accurate, automated payroll built directly into the books you already trust.

  • To Tier 1 (Accountant Users): "Stop paying your accountant $150+/month to file your taxes late." Highlight automatic tax filing, error-checking against their existing Ledgerly books, and cost savings.
  • To Tier 1 (Spreadsheet Users): "Take the tax-office anxiety out of Sunday nights." Emphasize peace of mind, automatic tax table updates, and eliminating manual entry errors.
  • To Tier 2 (Competitor Tool Users): "Start the new year with your books and payroll in one place—we’ll handle the January 1 switch for free." Overcome switching inertia by offering concierge migration for the new tax year.

---

3. Channels & Phased Rollout

Instead of a single "launch day" splash, we will run a 3-month campaign leveraging our unfair advantage: product data from our existing bookkeeping software.

Phase 1: High-Pain Capture (Nov 3 – Nov 30)

  • Contextual In-App Triggers (Tier 1): Using bank feed and bookkeeping data, trigger targeted prompts when users categorize transactions to "Payroll," "Tax Penalty," or "Accountant Fees."
  • Direct Email & Outbound Sales: Reallocate a portion of the $60k marketing budget to temporary onboarding specialists. Call and email the 2,170 Tier 1 customers offering a "Penalty-Free Guarantee" and free setup.
  • Customer Workshop (Replacing the generic webinar): Host "How to Fire Your Payroll Accountant (Without Making the Tax Office Mad)"—focused on compliance and how easy it is to transition.

Phase 2: The "New Year, Clean Books" Campaign (Dec 1 – Jan 15)

  • Concierge Migration Offer (Tier 1 & Tier 2): Launch a campaign throughout December: "Lock in your Jan 1 payroll switch before Dec 20, and our team will migrate your employee data from your old tool/accountant for free."
  • In-App Banner (All 5+ employee accounts): "Getting ready for year-end? Move payroll to Ledgerly for January and never get a penalty notice again."

---

4. How We’ll Know It’s Working (3-Month Metrics)

Press mentions and launch-week sign-ups are vanity metrics; our beta showed that 56% of users who start setup drop off before running payroll. In payroll, a customer isn't real until they run their first pay cycle.

We will track success from Nov 3 to Feb 3 across three funnel stages:

1. Activation (Leading Indicators - Tracked Weekly): * Landing Page to Setup Started: Target >6.0% (matching our winning beta test of 6.4%). * Setup Started to First Payroll Run: Target >50% (improving on beta's 43.6% via concierge onboarding). * "Jan 1 Switch" Reservations: Target 150+ accounts booked in Nov/Dec for a January start. 2. Adoption & Revenue (Lagging Indicators - Tracked Monthly): * Active Payroll Customers (ran ≥1 payroll by Jan 31): Target 250 customers (~11.5% of Tier 1, or ~6.5% of Tiers 1 & 2 combined). * Covered Employees & MRR: Target 3,000 employees paid through Ledgerly by Jan 31 (avg. 12 employees/account), generating $18,000 in new MRR ($216k ARR). 3. Product Quality & Trust (The Ultimate Goal): * Zero tax calculation/filing errors during the critical January year-end/Q1 filing period. * Payroll Retention: >95% of customers who run a first payroll run their second payroll.

Claims the judge couldn’t find in the brief

  • January 1 is the Clean-Slate Window—the easiest time of year to switch payroll providers because year-to-date tax balances reset.

Grades and run details

Decision model 75 · LLM judge 69
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly95%
  • passAddresses the actual decision52%
  • passRespects explicit constraints30%
  • failIdentifies material uncertainty67%
  • failAvoids unsupported claims80%
  • passProduces the required deliverable76%
  • passPicks the segment with the pain100%
  • passUses the headline test95%
  • passPositioned against the real alternative100%
  • passSells against a pain the buyer feels100%
  • passDiagnoses message or channel first95%
  • passPlans beyond launch week100%
Run
Run
#1
API response time
17 s
Submitted
13 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit10 of 12 checks passed

The plan is sound and evidence-based; a PM could trim ~50 words to meet the length limit without re-checking facts or redoing reasoning.

Output

Ledgerly Payroll: Go-to-Market Plan (launch 3 November)

The short version

Payroll is an add-on for people who already use Ledgerly, so the launch should be aimed at our existing customers. The draft plan spends most of its effort on new prospects and press, and it uses the headline that lost our own test. I'd make three changes:

  • Focus on the customers with the most painful problem.
  • Lead with the message that tripled conversion in beta.
  • Measure customers actually running payroll and still running it, not launch-week buzz.

1. Who we go after first

Primary: customers with 5–25 employees who run payroll in a spreadsheet or through their accountant. That's 2,170 customers.

  • They have the highest penalty rates: 19% for spreadsheet users and 23% for accountant-run payroll, against 4–7% everywhere else.
  • They have enough employees to matter. At roughly 12 staff, a customer is worth about $72 a month.
  • The calls describe this group exactly: the bakery's $1,400 penalty, the plumber's "scared of getting it wrong", the physio who'd "move tomorrow", and the landscaper paying $180 a month for mistakes.

Second wave: customers with 5–25 employees on another payroll tool (1,210), plus the 460 with 26–50 employees. They're fairly satisfied (5–7% penalties), and switching mid-year "sounds like a nightmare." We should approach them ahead of the next tax-year start, with a migration offer. Until then we just let them know payroll exists.

Not a focus: customers with 1–4 employees (4,160). They have low pain ("a spreadsheet's fine", "annoying, but free") and low revenue per customer. They can find payroll in the product without us pushing it.

2. What we say

The lead message is penalties and accuracy, not speed. In the beta, "Never get a payroll penalty again" won clearly over the speed headline:

Speed headlinePenalty headline
Visits that started setup2.2%6.4%
Visits that ran a first payroll0.9%2.8%

That's about three times as many customers running payroll, on comparable traffic of around 4,200 visits each. "Run payroll in minutes" is the losing message, and the calls explain why: "Time isn't the issue."

One important caveat: Legal must approve the penalty claim before we use it. "Never get a penalty again" is a promise. Penalties can still happen if a customer enters bad data or doesn't fund payroll on time. We have two options:

  • Back the promise: for example, "If a filing we're responsible for is late or wrong, we pay the penalty." This would be the strongest version, if Finance and Legal agree.
  • Soften the wording: for example, "Payroll filed correctly and on time, automatically." We would then re-test this against the winning headline in the first two weeks, because softening may reduce its effect.

Supporting points: - For accountant-run customers: "$6 per employee. For 6 staff, that's $36 a month, not $180." - For everyone: it already lives inside your books, so there's no re-entering data. This is a supporting point, not the headline.

Drop "the first Financial Operating System for small business." No customer has asked for this, it's hard to substantiate, and it says nothing about payroll.

3. Channels

ChannelWhat we do
In-app (targeted)Show the penalty-led payroll page to the 2,170 primary customers only, not a banner to all 8,000.
EmailA three-email sequence to the primary segment: the penalty story, the price comparison, and a booked setup slot.
Assisted setupOffer a free 30-minute call to get the first payroll running. In beta, more than half of customers who started setup never ran payroll, so this is our biggest point of loss.
WebinarMake it "How to avoid payroll penalties" with a live setup clinic. Invite the primary segment, and repeat it monthly rather than once in launch week.
AccountantsThis is a real risk. Some accountants will lose payroll fees, and they influence whether customers stay with Ledgerly at all. We should give accountants a read-only payroll view and position them as reviewers, so they aren't pushed out. Customer Success should monitor whether the core product loses customers in accountant-managed accounts.
PressKeep a modest announcement focused on payroll for small businesses, ideally with a beta customer's story. Press is not a success measure.

Budget: move the $60,000 away from paid ads to new prospects. New prospects would have to buy accounting before they can buy payroll, so that spend works against our focus. I'd use roughly: - $25,000 for assisted setup staffing and onboarding. - $5,000 for content and the webinar. - The rest held back until December, then released only if setup completion proves to be the bottleneck.

4. How we'll know it's working (November to January)

The main goal is customers who have run at least two payroll cycles. Signing up isn't enough; running payroll repeatedly is what matters.

MetricTarget by end of January
Primary-segment customers running payroll (2+ cycles)220, about 10% of the segment. That's roughly 2,600 employees and about $16,000 in monthly recurring revenue.
Setup started ÷ payroll page visits, primary segment6% or higher (at least matching the beta)
First payroll run ÷ setup startedUp from 44% to 60% or higher, through assisted setup
Time from setup start to first payrollMedian under 7 days
Penalties caused by LedgerlyZero. Every incident gets a root-cause review.
Customers who stop using payroll after their first runUnder 10%
Accounting product cancellations in the primary segmentNo increase compared with before launch

Check-ins: - Weekly: track the funnel by segment. - Week 2: read the headline re-test, if Legal changes the claim. - End of December: go/no-go on the held-back budget and on starting the switching campaign for customers on other payroll tools.

Caveats

  • The beta participants opted in, so real launch conversion will probably be lower than the beta numbers.
  • Penalty rates are self-reported.
  • The 220 target is a starting estimate, not a forecast. We should revise it after the first month of real data.

Grades and run details

Decision model 96 · LLM judge 85
Decision model checks
  • passUses the supplied evidence correctly14%
  • passAddresses the actual decision89%
  • passRespects explicit constraints51%
  • passIdentifies material uncertainty95%
  • partialAvoids unsupported claims31%
  • passProduces the required deliverable91%
  • passPicks the segment with the pain100%
  • passUses the headline test100%
  • passPositioned against the real alternative100%
  • passSells against a pain the buyer feels100%
  • passDiagnoses message or channel first100%
  • passPlans beyond launch week100%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
39 s
Submitted
5 Oct 2026

Usable with a quick edit8 of 12 checks passed

The plan is clear and actionable, with only a minor unsupported claim about acquisition cost that can be edited out; no re-checking of evidence is needed.

Output

To: Executive Team & Head of Marketing From: PM, Ledgerly Payroll Date: October 18 Subject: Revised GTM Plan: Ledgerly Payroll Launch (3 November)

The draft marketing plan targets a generic market with high-level branding. That’s a mistake. We are launching an add-on to an existing base of 8,000 accounting customers. Our unfair advantage isn't that we're a "Financial Operating System"—it's that we already hold their financial data.

We need to scrap the broad acquisition play for November, refocus entirely on our existing base, and lead with our strongest asset: penalty anxiety and accuracy, not speed.

Here are the critical changes I am making to our launch plan.

---

1. Who We Go After First (The Wedge)

The data and customer calls tell a clear story.

  • Ignore: The 1-4 employee segment doing payroll in spreadsheets (Retail shop: "Annoying, but free"). They don't feel enough pain to switch or pay $6/mo.
  • Ignore: Mid-year switchers currently using dedicated payroll tools (Café group: "Switching sounds like a nightmare").
  • Target (Our Wedge): Small businesses with 5–25 employees who currently rely on an accountant or a spreadsheet, and are bleeding money/stress on penalties.

Look at the data: 5–25 employee businesses using accountants or spreadsheets suffer 19% to 23% penalty rates annually. Furthermore, customer calls highlight deep resentment toward accountant-driven payroll failures ($1,400 fines, $180/mo fees for mistakes).

We will segment our 8,000 customers on Day 1 and suppress micro-businesses (1-4) from our primary payroll marketing to protect email reputation and conversion relevance.

2. What We Say to Them (The Message)

Marketing’s draft leads with: "Run payroll in minutes."

Our beta test proved this is the wrong hook. Look at the `betaheadlinetest.csv` data: * "Run payroll in minutes..." generated only 38 completed payrolls. * "Never get a payroll penalty again" generated 117 completed payrolls (more than 3x the activation rate).

Time isn't the primary enemy; fear is (Plumbing firm: "I'm scared of getting it wrong. The tax office letter was the worst week of my year").

Our Core Value Proposition: “Keep payroll inside Ledgerly. Zero manual data entry from your books, guaranteed accurate tax calculations, or we cover the penalty.” (Note: We should seriously explore a penalty-reimbursement guarantee as a killer differentiator).

3. Through Which Channels

We are shifting $50,000 of the proposed November budget away from broad paid social/search targeting cold prospects. Acquiring cold payroll customers is expensive and slow; cross-selling our 8,000 warm customers is high-margin.

  • Channel 1: Targeted In-App Real Estate (Nov 3): Replace the generic banner with a dynamic state. If the user has 5–25 employees and uses an accountant/spreadsheet, show the "Never get a payroll penalty again" headline.
  • Channel 2: Founder/PM Email Campaign (Nov 4–10): A direct, non-marketing-sounding email sent from me (PM) and the CEO to the 5–25 segment. Focus on the hidden costs of accountant errors and spreadsheet slip-ups. Include a 1-click "Import my data" preview.
  • Channel 3: The "Fire Your Accountant's Payroll Bill" Playbook: A targeted retargeting campaign (using the remaining $10k of paid budget) aimed strictly at custom matched lists of our 5-25 employee segment, highlighting how much they can save by bringing payroll into Ledgerly alongside their bookkeeping.

4. How We’ll Measure Success (Months 1–3)

Marketing’s draft relies on vanity metrics: press mentions and launch-week sign-ups. We care about retention and activation. Ledgerly Payroll is priced at $6/employee/month; a sign-up that doesn’t run payroll is worthless.

Over the next three months, we will track four strict OKRs:

  • Month 1 (Launch & Activation):
  • Metric: 500 active payroll accounts set up from the 5–25 employee segment.
  • Guardrail Metric: Zero critical calculation support tickets in the first 14 days. Accuracy is our brand promise; a buggy launch kills trust permanently.
  • Month 2 (Expansion & Accountant Displacement):
  • Metric: 30% of activated users migrating away from their external accountant/spreadsheet for payroll.
  • Metric: Average team size of adopting accounts sits solidly in the 8–15 employee range (validating our wedge).
  • Month 3 (Monetization & Retention):
  • Metric: $15,000 in recurring monthly add-on revenue (MRR).
  • Metric: 95% month-two retention for payroll runners (proving they didn't just test it for a month, but integrated it into their operations).

Summary of Changes

We are abandoning the "Financial Operating System" fluff and the broad acquisition spend. On November 3, we laser-focus on our 5–25 employee segment with a message built on fear-relief and accuracy, driving them straight into a high-converting in-app flow.

Grades and run details

Decision model 71 · LLM judge 77
Decision model checks
  • failUses the supplied evidence correctly23%
  • passAddresses the actual decision59%
  • partialRespects explicit constraints19%
  • failIdentifies material uncertainty38%
  • failAvoids unsupported claims51%
  • passProduces the required deliverable61%
  • passPicks the segment with the pain94%
  • passUses the headline test100%
  • passPositioned against the real alternative100%
  • passSells against a pain the buyer feels100%
  • passDiagnoses message or channel first97%
  • passPlans beyond launch week94%
Run
Run
#1
Time to output
6 s
Submitted
5 Oct 2026

Check by check

Where the outputs differ comes first. Open a check to read the judge’s reasons. “Mixed” means the two graders disagreed.

Where they differ 6

Uses the supplied evidence correctlyWrongRightMixed
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The claim that January 1 is the easiest time to switch because tax balances reset is not in the supplied context and is presented as fact about the situation.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

All statements about the current situation are directly supported by the brief or supplied context.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

All factual claims about the current situation are directly supported by the brief or supplied context.

Addresses the actual decisionRightRightMixed
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The output unambiguously commits to a ranked target segment, message, channels and measures, framed as a GTM plan for the reader.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Commits early to a primary segment, message, and channels, and states conditions that would change the call (legal approval, re-test, go/no-go).

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output commits to a clear plan but does not state what result or condition would change that decision.

Respects explicit constraintsRightMixedRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The output stays within the word limit, addresses all requested parts, and respects the focus on existing customers.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The output is approximately 952 words, exceeding the 900-word limit.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The plan respects the 900-word limit, addresses the required elements, and does not lead with 'save time' or make paid ads the main channel.

Identifies material uncertaintyWrongRightWrong
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The output does not name specific unknowns that could change the plan or say how they would be resolved.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Names specific unknowns (legal risk, beta opt-in bias, self-reported data) and how they would be resolved or change the plan.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output does not name any unknowns that could change the decision or how they would be resolved.

Avoids unsupported claimsWrongRightWrong
Gemini 4 Argon · API

It presents the January 1 clean-slate tax reset claim as an established fact with no source, rather than as a hypothesis.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Hypotheses and forecasts are labelled as such (e.g., 'probably be lower', 'starting estimate, not a forecast').

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

It presents 'Acquiring cold payroll customers is expensive and slow; cross-selling our 8,000 warm customers is high-margin' as fact without supporting evidence.

Produces the required deliverableRightMixedRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The GTM plan is complete, under 900 words, with segments, message, channels, and 3-month metrics, usable with light edits.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

The plan is present and complete but exceeds the 900-word limit, so it is not fully within the requested length.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The output is a complete go-to-market plan in memo form, under 900 words, covering who, what, channels, and measures.

All got right 6

Picks the segment with the painRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

It targets 5-25 employees on accountant or spreadsheet payroll using the penalty data, and explains why smaller businesses and tool users are not first.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Targets 5–25 employee customers using spreadsheet or accountant, with numbers and penalty rates, and explains why smaller and tool-using segments come later.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

It targets 5-25 employee businesses using accountant/spreadsheet, cites penalty rates, and explains why smaller and tool-using segments are not first.

Uses the headline testRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

It cites the beta headline test results and builds the core message on 'Never get a payroll penalty again'.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Cites the beta test results and builds the message on penalties and accuracy.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

It uses the beta test results (38 vs 117 completed payrolls) to choose the penalty-focused message.

Positioned against the real alternativeRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The plan names each current alternative (spreadsheet, accountant, another tool) and ties the value to reliability and penalty avoidance.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Names the real alternatives (spreadsheet, accountant, another tool) and ties the message to penalty risk and cost savings.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

It names the real alternatives (accountant, spreadsheet, other tools) and ties the message to the accuracy and penalty avoidance they lack.

Sells against a pain the buyer feelsRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The core message leads with penalty and error fear, supported by customer calls and the headline test.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Leads with the pain of penalties and errors, supported by calls and beta data, not generic time-saving.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

The core message is built on fear of penalties and errors, supported by customer calls and the headline test.

Diagnoses message or channel firstRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

It identifies the headline test as proving a message problem, not a channel problem, and reallocates budget from paid ads to in-app and email.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Diagnoses a message problem (losing headline, existing customers already see the page) and shifts budget from new-prospect ads to in-app, email, and assisted setup.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

It diagnoses the problem as message (low conversion on the time headline) and shifts effort to fixing the message and reaching existing customers.

Plans beyond launch weekRightRightRight
Gemini 4 Argon · API

The plan includes a phased December-January campaign and monthly metrics like MRR, retention, and penalty-free filings.

Opus 5.5 · Claude

Plans ongoing monthly webinars, three-month metrics, weekly check-ins, and a December go/no-go, not just launch week.

Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini

It provides an ongoing motion with in-app, email, and retargeting, and measures success over three months with specific metrics.

Results

Every setup we’ve tested on this task type, across all its tasks and repeats, graded on the current checklist. Calibrated.

#Model · HarnessTask scoreDecision modelLLM judgeRunsCritical failures
1GPT-6 AstrawithChatGPT95.8100.02None
2Opus 5.5withClaude94.185.22None
3GPT-6 LunawithAPI88.589.32None
4GPT-6.1 SolwithAPI93.878.02None
5Sonnet 5.5withAPI89.977.72None
6Haiku 5.5withAPI88.077.72None
7Gemini 3.8 FlashwithAPI72.181.92None
8Gemini 4 ArgonwithAPI74.070.32None
9Gemini 3.5 Flash-LitewithGemini70.063.52None

What you get for the cost

No setup scores within 5 points of the leader at half its cost or less here, so the leader is also the best value.

Task score against relative cost for each setup. The table below has the same figures.607080901001×3×10×30×100×Cost per output, relative to the cheapest setup (log scale) →↑ Task scoreGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT: task score 98, 81× the cheapestOpus 5.5 · Claude: task score 90, 75× the cheapestGPT-6 Luna · API: task score 88, the cheapestGPT-6.1 Sol · API: task score 84, 16× the cheapestSonnet 5.5 · API: task score 80, 46× the cheapestHaiku 5.5 · API: task score 80, 3.3× the cheapestGemini 3.8 Flash · API: task score 76, 11× the cheapestGemini 4 Argon · API: task score 69, 18× the cheapestGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini: task score 66, 3.5× the cheapestGPT-6 Astra · ChatGPTOpus 5.5 · ClaudeGPT-6 Luna · APIGPT-6.1 Sol · APISonnet 5.5 · APIHaiku 5.5 · APIGemini 3.8 Flash · APIGemini 4 Argon · APIGemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini
Nobody beats these on both score and cost
Task score and relative cost by setup
SetupTask scoreRelative cost (cheapest = 1)
GPT-6 Luna · API881.0×
Haiku 5.5 · API803.3×
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite · Gemini663.5×
Gemini 3.8 Flash · API7611×
GPT-6.1 Sol · API8416×
Gemini 4 Argon · API6918×
Sonnet 5.5 · API8046×
Opus 5.5 · Claude9075×
GPT-6 Astra · ChatGPT9881×

Cost is each output’s tokens at the model’s list price, shown relative to the cheapest setup. Runs done in an app have no usage meter, so theirs are estimated from the same setup’s measured runs. How we compare cost

About the task

The PM job

Taking a product or add-on to market with marketing and sales.

Why it matters

Launch plans fail by trying to reach everyone, by selling upside nobody feels, and by treating launch day as the whole plan.

What good looks like

  • One primary segment: those who value the difference most
  • Positions against what customers do today
  • Sells against a pain the buyer feels, with evidence
  • Diagnoses whether the problem is the message or the channel
  • Plans beyond launch week

Deliberately not measured

  • Creative copywriting quality
Capability tested

Go-to-market judgement

The failure we’re looking for

Every channel, every segment, and nothing after launch day

Grading

Decision model and LLM judge, calibrated against a blind PM review